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Speaker 1: We know. The latest starter from core Logic shows the

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Speaker 1: national home values have held steady, while values in regional

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Speaker 1: areas rose in January, reaching record new heights. The home

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Speaker 1: value index in Darwin rose zero point six percent, with

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Speaker 1: growth also recorded in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, while Melbourne

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Speaker 1: and the Act and Sydney endured declines. Now joining us

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Speaker 1: on the line to break this down further is core

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Speaker 1: Logics Research director Tim Lawless. Good morning, Tim, good morning,

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Speaker 1: lovely to have you on the show. Now, Tim, what

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Speaker 1: does the latest report show for home values in Darwin.

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Speaker 2: Well, they've actually on a bit of a run at

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Speaker 2: the moment. We've seen a month of growth up point

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Speaker 2: six percent, but also the last quarter, so the three

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Speaker 2: months inning January, we've seen about a one point seven

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Speaker 2: percent rise. That's pretty decent for a market like Darwin

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Speaker 2: that's gone through quite a soft period of housing values.

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Speaker 2: And over the past twelve months the market's up about

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Speaker 2: one percent or point nine percent, So in dollar terms,

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Speaker 2: that means we've seen the market left in value by

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Speaker 2: around about four four hundred dollars over the past twelve months.

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Speaker 1: Are there certain parts of the Greater Darwin area that

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Speaker 1: saw the highest growth.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely. The results are actually pretty diverse. If you

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Speaker 2: get out to markets like say Lichfield, Palmerston, the outer

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Speaker 2: fringes of Darwin itself, that's generally where we're seeing most

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Speaker 2: of the growth, and mostly in infra houses rather than

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Speaker 2: units as well. So Lychfield's up about two point four

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Speaker 2: percent in the past twelve months, Palmeston about two point

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Speaker 2: two percent. These are also markets that are I suppose

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Speaker 2: quite predominantly low density. There's not a lot of apartments

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Speaker 2: in those areas. But once you get into the Darwin

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Speaker 2: inner city, that's where you can start to see some weakness,

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Speaker 2: mostly being pulled down by the apartment sector, which is

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Speaker 2: still doing it pretty tough. In the last twelve months

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Speaker 2: we've seen apartment values across Darwin, it's still drifted a

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Speaker 2: little bit lower. You know, they are down point one percent,

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Speaker 2: so essentially flat over the past year.

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Speaker 1: Now, tell me what's the situation. I guess for some

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Speaker 1: of I mean, like you've said Litchfield there in Palmerston,

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Speaker 1: But for some of the more regional parts of the Northern.

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Speaker 2: Territory, Yeah, it's really different. So geet to Catherine or

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Speaker 2: Alice Springs and these markets are still extraordinarily weak. We're

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Speaker 2: seeing ongoing declines monthly, quarterly, annually. In fact, Elae Springs

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Speaker 2: is one of the few markets that's actually down in

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Speaker 2: value over the past five years, so it hasn't really

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Speaker 2: seen much of that pandemic upswing we've seen across a

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Speaker 2: lot of other regional markets. So the last twelve months,

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Speaker 2: Alice Springs is down in value by about four percent,

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Speaker 2: Catherine down by nearly ten percent, of that market down

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Speaker 2: nine point five percent, so quite different once you get

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Speaker 2: out into those there's more rural and remote areas well,

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Speaker 2: And you do.

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Speaker 1: Wonder I suppose for us here locally. You know, places

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Speaker 1: like Alice and also Catherine have really grappled in the

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Speaker 1: last couple of years with some of those issues of crime.

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Speaker 1: So I don't know whether that kind of thing has

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Speaker 1: an impact, but I guess from a practical sense, for

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Speaker 1: some of us locally, we probably would say that it

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Speaker 1: does well.

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Speaker 2: It probably doesn't help. Put it that way, Housing prices

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Speaker 2: always come back to supply and demand, and the demand

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Speaker 2: site factors are clearly quite weak in those markets, and

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Speaker 2: supply the listing numbers are generally quite high. So obviously

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Speaker 2: when those two are out of balance, you start to

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Speaker 2: see some downags pressure on prices.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, what about listings, you know, like for hearing Darwin,

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Speaker 1: have we got a lot of stock on the market.

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Speaker 2: No, that's really changed and we're starting the year on

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Speaker 2: a really low base. For listings across Darwin. They're tracking

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Speaker 2: about forty percent lower than there were a year ago. Wow,

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Speaker 2: so quite quite the drop in actual stock levels. So

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Speaker 2: based on data up to the beginning of February, there

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Speaker 2: was about five hundred and twenty two active listings across

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Speaker 2: the Darwen market over at the four weeks ending second effect,

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Speaker 2: so yeah, about about thirty nine percent down on what

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Speaker 2: it was a year ago and about forty percent below

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Speaker 2: the five year average. So it looks like vendors are

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Speaker 2: kind of sitting on their hands at the moment. We

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Speaker 2: haven't really seen a pick up in purchasing activities. This

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Speaker 2: is more about just the flow of new listings coming

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Speaker 2: into the market remaining quite low.

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Speaker 1: So tim in terms of you know, some of those

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Speaker 1: numbers that we are saying, not just you know, not

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Speaker 1: just the low listings, but you know some of the

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Speaker 1: different things that are happening around the Darwin region. You

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Speaker 1: know what sort of behind some of those strengths.

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Speaker 2: Well, one of the biggest and most important factors would

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Speaker 2: simply just be population growth. We've been seeing this ongoing

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Speaker 2: negative rate of interstate migration across the NT pretty much,

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Speaker 2: you know, since the interruption of the pandemic. There was

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Speaker 2: a brief and quite sharp rise in internal migration as

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Speaker 2: more people were coming across the border, but that's once

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Speaker 2: again gone deeply negative, So there's more people leaving the

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Speaker 2: NT than arriving. Obviously, overseas migration starting to normalize now

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Speaker 2: as well, after spiking as borders reopened. So I think

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Speaker 2: that the population of that demographic dynamic remains quite soft

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Speaker 2: for Darwin, and we don't really expect it to pick

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Speaker 2: up until economic conditions really start to show much more

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Speaker 2: substantial improvement like we've seen historically. Big infrastructure projects tend

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Speaker 2: to push the dial or move the dial for Darwin.

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Speaker 2: So anything like that that might be on the radar

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Speaker 2: over the coming years would probably be a catalyst for

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Speaker 2: population growth and housing markets picking up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, Now, tell me in terms of our rental

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Speaker 1: market in Darwin, how's that tracking along?

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Speaker 2: Ye, that the rental market's been generally quite soft, it

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Speaker 2: is starting to pick up a little bit now, so

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Speaker 2: we're starting to see rental growth reaccelerate, but from a

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Speaker 2: pretty low base. So you look at Darwin rents over

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Speaker 2: the past twelve months, just trying to bring the numbers

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Speaker 2: up in front of me. So we've got Darwin rents

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Speaker 2: up two point three percent over the past twelve months

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Speaker 2: for houses and for the apartment sector a little bit stronger.

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Speaker 2: It looks like apartment rentals are getting quite tight now.

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Speaker 2: They're up about six percents over the past twelve months.

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Speaker 2: But again, these numbers are moving from a relatively low base.

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Speaker 2: If you remember back to say twenty twenty one, that

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Speaker 2: the Darwin rental market was absolutely booming. It was leading

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Speaker 2: the nation with rent rising about twenty to twenty five

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Speaker 2: percent per annum, and then it slowed really sharply as

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Speaker 2: those demographic trends turned around. So at around about sort

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Speaker 2: of two to three percent for houses, nearly six percent

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Speaker 2: for apartments, that's generally an average to a slightly above

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Speaker 2: average rate of growth for unit rents.

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Speaker 1: Well, Tim Lawler's call Logics Research Director, anything else we

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Speaker 1: should be aware of with those numbers before we let

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Speaker 1: you go this morning.

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Speaker 2: Well, of course, the market is quite seasonal in Darwin,

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Speaker 2: and no doubt everyone's working their way through some pretty

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Speaker 2: muggy weather at the moment. I think once we get

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Speaker 2: through this patch of a very hot weather and Hobby

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Speaker 2: get some rain to come through, you'll probably start to

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Speaker 2: see the market livening up a little bit more. Darwin

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Speaker 2: tends to be a lot more seasonal than other markets

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Speaker 2: through the hotter months.

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Speaker 1: Interesting. Well, it's it's belted down here this morning, Tim,

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Speaker 1: for the first time in the ages, mate, So that's

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Speaker 1: got to be a good sign, right, we've all been

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Speaker 1: waiting for the exactly we've all been waiting for the monsoon.

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Speaker 1: Tim Lawless. Always great to catch up with you and

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Speaker 1: get your insight. Thanks so much for your time this morning. Thanks,

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Speaker 1: thank you,