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Speaker 1: We're going to be catching up with Charlestowe University Professor

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Speaker 1: Rolf Gerretson in just a moment's time and talking a

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Speaker 1: little bit more about some of the movements politically over well,

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Speaker 1: what we're potentially going to see I guess you'd say

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Speaker 1: ahead of the Northern Territory election, which is August next year,

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Speaker 1: so it's around ten months away, and I guess you're

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Speaker 1: starting to see some of the political parties really getting

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Speaker 1: their ducks in a row. We'd seen earlier in the

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Speaker 1: week the COLP announced a couple of candidates for out

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Speaker 1: in the Palmerston area and also announced Shane Stone, the

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Speaker 1: former Chief Minister of the Northern Territory, back as President

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Speaker 1: of the COLP. Now joining us live on the line

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Speaker 1: is Charlesdowin University Professor Rolf Gerretson. Good morning to your Rolf.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Nice to talk to you again, Ian, lovely

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Speaker 2: to have.

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Speaker 1: You on the show. Now, there's been a bit of

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Speaker 1: movement politically. We're ten months out now from the next

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Speaker 1: Northern Territory election, and firstly we might touch on the COLP.

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Speaker 1: They've made a couple of announcements earlier in the week.

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Speaker 1: They're two candidates in the Palmerston area. But then they've

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Speaker 1: also announced that Shane Stone, the former Chief Minister, is

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Speaker 1: back as the president. What do you make of those movements?

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Speaker 2: Well, I think the Shane Spone move is very significant

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Speaker 2: because he's a serious player. I mean he spent six

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Speaker 2: years as president of the Federal Liberal Party, apart from

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Speaker 2: being previously president of the CLP, and also that previous

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Speaker 2: Chief minister. Excuse me, I've got a yeah. No, I

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Speaker 2: think it's it's a signal that the COLP thinks they

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Speaker 2: can possibly win the next election.

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Speaker 1: And the I guess the interesting part's going to be

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Speaker 1: now as well, is where do you reckon those seats

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Speaker 1: could sort of could be won and lost. And I'm

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Speaker 1: sure that that's some of the work that Shane Stone

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Speaker 1: and the CLP be looking at right now.

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Speaker 2: Well, there's three or four seats that are if you

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Speaker 2: like it, assuming there is a swink to you and

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Speaker 2: you're the opposition and you win government, you're usually winning

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Speaker 2: seats within a two or three percent margin, but sometimes

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Speaker 2: if you have a really good candidate, you will win

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Speaker 2: a seat with you know, five or six or seven percent.

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Speaker 2: So without knowing the candidates, I can't say that, Yes,

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Speaker 2: it's going to be difficult for them because you know,

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Speaker 2: the government seems to have an alliance with the public service,

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Speaker 2: which is fifteen percent of the electric in the northern

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Speaker 2: sel Garent.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and that always sort of comes into play, I

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Speaker 1: suppose when when you know, we see the election results

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Speaker 1: starting to roll through. But as you said, their professor,

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Speaker 1: there is three or four seats that were really one

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Speaker 1: on a two or three percent margin. Which ones are

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Speaker 1: they and where?

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Speaker 2: You know?

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Speaker 1: Without knowing those without knowing the candid that's because you're

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Speaker 1: spot on. It's hard to know, isn't it how it's

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Speaker 1: all going to go until you know who's actually running.

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Speaker 1: But some of those seats are a knife's edge.

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Speaker 2: I'd have to sit down with it, you know, an

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Speaker 2: electrical map and work it all out. But from memory,

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Speaker 2: there's two or three seats in the Palmerstan and the

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Speaker 2: tail end of the northern suburbs that come within those margins.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's going to be really fascinating to see now.

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Speaker 1: I know that. The NT News was also last week

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Speaker 1: reporting that the Greens are going to run some candidates

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Speaker 1: in what many would describe as pretty pivotal labor seats

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Speaker 1: and I guess that that's potentially where you may see

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Speaker 1: some of those those loss of votes as well from

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Speaker 1: Labor heading more towards the Greens.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well the Greens historically cannibalized the Labor Party primary vote,

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Speaker 2: but then give their preferences to Labors. Yeah, but yeah,

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Speaker 2: you're right. I mean Greens would think they'd have an

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Speaker 2: outside chan, say, and a seat like Barkley. That of

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Speaker 2: course is complicated by the sitting members.

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Speaker 1: Well, again, it just comes down to who runs, I suppose,

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Speaker 1: and who puts their hand up. But Ralph, do you

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Speaker 1: think that we're going to see do you think we're

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Speaker 1: going to see a rise in the number of independent

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Speaker 1: candidates that do put their hands up? I know that

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Speaker 1: that there's been a bit of discussion about that, particularly

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Speaker 1: with the rise of the tier independence on a national

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Speaker 1: national scale. But some of us might be a bit

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Speaker 1: sort of tainted from last time around when Terry Mills

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Speaker 1: and the Territory Alliance party were kind of marketing themselves

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Speaker 1: as being a party for the people and turned out,

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Speaker 1: you know, and not doing real well at all.

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Speaker 2: Well, Territory Alliance was the latest manifestation, but you know,

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Speaker 2: ever since the National Party in the eighties there be

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Speaker 2: that they should say that the rise and and then

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Speaker 2: you meet almost immediate four of several third third party alternatives,

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Speaker 2: but the dreams are the only ones. I think that

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Speaker 2: if you like permanent in the electrical system.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, now, what do you make of the comments that

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Speaker 3: were made earlier this week as well by two former

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Speaker 3: prime ministers, Tony Abbott and indeed John Howard saying that

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Speaker 3: the Northern Territory is a failed state.

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Speaker 1: I mean they're talking about it in the context of

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Speaker 1: the voice. But what did you make of those comments?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Now, now we're on the territory where I'm more comfortable.

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Speaker 2: I am Predicting elections is notoriously wobbly because public opinion

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Speaker 2: polls in ANUDN charrity usually only taken in Darwin or

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Speaker 2: In twenty twelve, the public Opinion Pole said that the

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Speaker 2: Henderson government might lose one seat in Darwen and they

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Speaker 2: ended up losing five Bush seats. Yeah, it's hard to

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Speaker 2: know anyway. Howard and Abbit should have chosen their words

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Speaker 2: more carefully because whilst I agree, I mean the charity

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Speaker 2: government has a structure of the public service that is unsustainable,

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Speaker 2: you know, and is gradually driving us to ruin. But

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Speaker 2: the Commonwealth is also contributed to our problems. And I'll

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Speaker 2: give you two illustrations. The first one is we get

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Speaker 2: about fifteen percent of our revenue ten to fifteen percent

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Speaker 2: of our revenue from what are called specific purpose programs.

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Speaker 2: That's where the common Will gives us, say ten million,

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Speaker 2: and says, here's ten million, we want you to put

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Speaker 2: ten million in and buy the spectacles for everybody with

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Speaker 2: blonde hair or whatever whatever the program is. And so

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Speaker 2: the Commonwealth when it has these programs, particularly if they're

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Speaker 2: a national program, so not say something like oh believes

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Speaker 2: he's two and fifty million kicked in for Central Australia

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Speaker 2: in January. But if it's a national program, the money

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Speaker 2: gets allocated on a capital basis. But if you say,

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Speaker 2: for instance, if we go provide spectacles for everybody who's

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Speaker 2: a site disadvantaged, the cost of doing that in the

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Speaker 2: territory will be immeasurably more than the cost of doing

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Speaker 2: that in say Victoria, because you know we've got all

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Speaker 2: these remote, small, remote communities, et cetera, et cetera. So

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Speaker 2: the Commonwealth basically ties our expenditure up in a lot

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Speaker 2: of these specific purpose programs and we can't really deliver them.

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Speaker 2: The second one is in twenty eighteen the common Wealth

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Speaker 2: changed the way what's called horizontal legalization is delivered. Now

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Speaker 2: we have a system the Commonwealth collects the GST on

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Speaker 2: behalf of the states and it allocates to the states

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Speaker 2: and territories, and the system by which it allocates it

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Speaker 2: is supposed to be based on horizontal legalization. That is

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Speaker 2: obviously costs more to educate a kid in Luoka than

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Speaker 2: it does a kid in a suburb in Sydney, so

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Speaker 2: we're differential, and it's been as high as eight to

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Speaker 2: one in the past, as found about five now the Commonwealth,

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Speaker 2: well particularly Victoria and New South Wales in the past,

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Speaker 2: but recently twenty eighteen Western Australia has drastically eroded that

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Speaker 2: system whereby people can expect equal services no matter where

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Speaker 2: they live. So because in two thousand and eighteen the

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Speaker 2: Commonwealth agreed to basically taking seventy cents in every dollar

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Speaker 2: of GST collected and allocating it on a capital basis,

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Speaker 2: which means we get one percent.

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Speaker 1: So I guess what you're saying, professor, is that you

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Speaker 1: know it's it's a bit rich for two former prime

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Speaker 1: ministers to be saying that we're a failed state when

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Speaker 1: the way in which we've been funded has has not

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Speaker 1: necessarily been helpful.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, no, the funding assistant, the redistribution and remember

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Speaker 2: the GST or if you like, the Commonwealth General Purpose

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Speaker 2: grants usually about sixty percent of our revenue and that's

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Speaker 2: going to a road over time because of this provision

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Speaker 2: that's been put on because previous prime listeners have been

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Speaker 2: afraid of premium a gown.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I just feel as well, that's you know,

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Speaker 1: rightly or wrongly, and we certainly can see that there's

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Speaker 1: different areas where we are failing at this point in

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Speaker 1: time in the territory, there's no doubt about that. But

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Speaker 1: you know, to use the Northern Territory I suppose as

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Speaker 1: a political football a few days out from the Voice referendum,

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Speaker 1: it does just seem a bit rich. It seems as

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Speaker 1: though we're being used for their own, you know, to

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Speaker 1: get their own argument across the line.

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Speaker 2: I agree with you, and I say Tusk as well.

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Speaker 1: Well, Professor Rolph Gerretson, I always appreciate your time. We'll

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Speaker 1: talk to you again soon, and no doubt talk again

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Speaker 1: quite a bit I'm sure as we lead into an election.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, thank you, you too,