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Speaker 1: My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda

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Speaker 1: Bunjelung Calcotin woman from Gadighl Country. The Daily oz acknowledges

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Speaker 1: that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the

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Speaker 1: Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres

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Speaker 1: Strait Island and nations. We pay our respects to the

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Speaker 1: first peoples of these countries, both past and present.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, and welcome to the Daily os. It's Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: the eighth of November. I'm Sam, I'm Billy. Now. Every

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Speaker 2: four years America votes in the presidential election, but every

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Speaker 2: two years the country returns to the ballot in elections

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Speaker 2: equally consequential for the state of the Union. On today's

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Speaker 2: deep Dive, I'll be joined again by Tom to take

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Speaker 2: us through the US midterm elections. But first, Billy, what

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Speaker 2: is making headlines this morning?

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Speaker 3: Private health insurance medi Bank has said it will not

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Speaker 3: pay any ransom to the criminal responsible for love x

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Speaker 3: Month's cyber attack. In an update posted yesterday, Mehdibank also

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Speaker 3: said it believed that around nine point seven million people

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Speaker 3: had personal information compromised, which included names, addresses and phone numbers.

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Speaker 2: Attorney General Mark Dreyfus has worn former Prime Minister Scott

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Speaker 2: Morrison against disclosing cabinet information to the media. A letter

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Speaker 2: written by Dreyfus was tabled to a Senate hearing on Monday,

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Speaker 2: which cautioned Morrison of publicly providing information that could quote

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Speaker 2: undermine national security and the integrity of cabinet. It follows

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Speaker 2: from comments made by Morrison for a book focused on

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Speaker 2: the actions of his government from twenty twenty to twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two.

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Speaker 3: Melbourne's Crown Casino has been fined one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 3: million dollars for two breaches of its gambling services. The

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Speaker 3: Victorian Gambling and Casino Commission handed down the penalties, which

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Speaker 3: were based on findings from last year's Royal commission into Crown.

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Speaker 3: Chairperson Frank Thorne said it sounds warning to all operators

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Speaker 3: in the Victorian gambling industry.

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Speaker 2: And today's good news. The Jill Arrous recorded the biggest

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Speaker 2: victory in Women's Rugby League World Cup history in a

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Speaker 2: ninety two to nil win over France during the group stage.

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Speaker 2: It comes after the Australian side, who are the defending

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Speaker 2: champions of the tournament. It comes after the Australian side,

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Speaker 2: who are the defending champions, dismantled the Cook Islands in

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Speaker 2: their first match of the group stage earlier in the tournament.

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Speaker 2: They'll be back in action against New Zealand's later this week.

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Speaker 2: It is the day of the US midterms here in Australia,

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Speaker 2: with poles beginning to close at nine am tomorrow morning

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Speaker 2: Australian Eastern daylight time. This is a big moment in

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Speaker 2: global politics and to take us through it, we've got

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Speaker 2: Tom Crowley joining us. Tom tell me first, what's different

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Speaker 2: between the midterms and the presidential election?

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Speaker 4: Thanks Sam Well. The simple answer is the difference is

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Speaker 4: there's no president in this one. So they called the

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Speaker 4: midterm elections because they come halfway through the president's term

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Speaker 4: and it's basically everything else that's on the ballot. So

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Speaker 4: the US Congress has two houses a bit like ours.

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Speaker 4: There's the House of Representatives. In the Senate, the whole

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Speaker 4: House of Representatives is up for election, and about thirty

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Speaker 4: five out of the one hundred Senators are also up

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Speaker 4: for election, as well as a bunch of state governors,

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Speaker 4: so thirty six out of the fifty state governors are

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Speaker 4: up for election. So a whole bunch of different elections

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Speaker 4: for the Americans who choose to vote over the next

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Speaker 4: twenty four hours, and it's fair to say that they

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Speaker 4: can really shape what's going to happen over the next

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Speaker 4: couple of years. So the President's certainly not going to change,

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Speaker 4: but it will absolutely have implications for the next presidential

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Speaker 4: election in a couple of years, and it'll have huge

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Speaker 4: implications for what's going to happen in America on a

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Speaker 4: number of issues over the next couple of years.

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Speaker 2: Well, why don't you take me through some of those

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Speaker 2: huge implications, because I think when we think about American politics,

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Speaker 2: it is very president driven and it is focused a

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Speaker 2: lot on what happens in the White House. What are

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Speaker 2: the implications after a midterm election. Yeah, you're right, we

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Speaker 2: do focus a lot on the American president. But the

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Speaker 2: reality is that when you actually want to get things done,

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Speaker 2: when you want to pass laws, the president doesn't formally

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Speaker 2: have a role in that. That's all Congress. It's the

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Speaker 2: two houses of Congress that have to vote to pass

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Speaker 2: anything into law. So if a president can't control Congress,

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Speaker 2: the president in a sense is kind of useless. I mean,

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Speaker 2: they have some other powers you know, they're.

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Speaker 4: Commander in chief and they do a bunch of other things,

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Speaker 4: but when it comes to passing laws, Congress is really important.

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Speaker 4: And in America even more than Australia, states have quite

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Speaker 4: a lot of power to do their own thing as well,

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Speaker 4: So you know state governors who are kind of the

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Speaker 4: equivalent to our state premiers. I think it's probably fair

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Speaker 4: to say even more powerful than our state premiers. So

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Speaker 4: all of those levels of the US government make a really,

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Speaker 4: really big difference to what's going to happen on a

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Speaker 4: number of issues. And it really comes down to a

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Speaker 4: question of which of the two political parties, the Demo

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Speaker 4: Scrats and the Republicans, who are so sharply divided on

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Speaker 4: so many of the big issues in America, it's all

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Speaker 4: really about who wins control. And at the moment, technically

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Speaker 4: the Democrats are in control. So the Democrats have a

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Speaker 4: majority in the House of Representatives. It's fifty to fifty

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Speaker 4: in the Senate, but the Vice President Kamala Harris gets

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Speaker 4: the casting votes, so technically, again the Democrats kind of

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Speaker 4: have a majority in both houses. That should make it

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Speaker 4: really easy for Joe Biden to pass all of the

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Speaker 4: laws that he might want to pass, but it's been

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Speaker 4: a little bit more complicated than that. There are a

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Speaker 4: couple of Democrats in the Senate who have been quite

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Speaker 4: difficult to work with, who often side with the Republicans.

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Speaker 4: There are strange rules in the Senate that just make

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Speaker 4: it difficult for the Democrats with their current numbers to

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Speaker 4: get anything done. So from the democratic perspective, they're really

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Speaker 4: trying to, I guess, increase their hold in those houses

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Speaker 4: and increase their ability to get things through, whereas the

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Speaker 4: Republicans are hoping that they might be able to have

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Speaker 4: a bit of a wave in their direction and take

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Speaker 4: control and really kind of frustrate the Biden administration's agenda.

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Speaker 2: Are there any patterns in the last two or three

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Speaker 2: decades about the Senate changing to be the opposite of

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Speaker 2: what the president is like? Is it common to have

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Speaker 2: a president who can't pass things through a Senate because

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Speaker 2: his party is not in control.

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Speaker 4: It is quite common. Yeah, It really does vary, and

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Speaker 4: it's quite common as well in midterm elections that there

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Speaker 4: is a bit of a backlash against whoever the president is.

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Speaker 4: So the Obama administration had this problem in the very

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Speaker 4: early days. There were a lot of Democrats in Congress,

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Speaker 4: but for most of Obama's time as president, he had

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Speaker 4: a hostile Congress control by Republicans, and it made it

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Speaker 4: very difficult for him to do a lot of the

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Speaker 4: things he might have liked to do. You know, Successive

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Speaker 4: Democratic presidents, for example, who wanted to do things about

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Speaker 4: gun control, have been unable to get that through Congress

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Speaker 4: because of Republicans opposing that kind of thing. So, yeah,

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Speaker 4: it is quite common, and I think it's worth acknowledging

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Speaker 4: that that's kind of the point of the American system,

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Speaker 4: that the way that it was set up by because

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Speaker 4: founding fathers, who we hear so much about, they wanted

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Speaker 4: to build in this kind of what they call checks

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Speaker 4: and balances in the system and make sure that different

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Speaker 4: parts of the system were kind of pulling against one

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Speaker 4: another to make progress slower. It's an inherently conservative and

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Speaker 4: oppositional system. So in a sense that that's kind of

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Speaker 4: America working in the way that it was intended. But

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Speaker 4: in an era when on abortion and gun control and

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Speaker 4: issues like that, there are such sharp divides, it becomes

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Speaker 4: a pretty intense thing to watch.

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Speaker 2: And I'm just reflecting on yesterday's conversation you and I

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Speaker 2: had about the Victorian election, And in that conversation I

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Speaker 2: asked you about what the big issues are and you

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Speaker 2: told me about metro lines, roads, bicycle lanes, a little

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Speaker 2: bit of healthcare, and some climate policy as well. Now,

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Speaker 2: let's talk about what the big issues are here, because

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Speaker 2: I have a feeling they're a little bit more polarizing

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Speaker 2: than where to build the next highway.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I think that is fair to say, Sam. And

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Speaker 4: the biggest issue of all in these midterms is abortion rights.

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Speaker 4: So the context for that, as we've spoken about earlier

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Speaker 4: this year, was the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe

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Speaker 4: versus Wade, and that was a Supreme Court judgment from

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Speaker 4: the nineteen seventies that found that the Constitution gave people

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Speaker 4: a right to have an abortion in America. Now that

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Speaker 4: the Supreme Court has overturned that, it's fallen back to

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Speaker 4: individual states to make their own laws about whether abortion

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Speaker 4: should be legal or not, and a number of states

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Speaker 4: ban abortion. The Democrats would like to pass a federal law,

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Speaker 4: so you know, now that there's no federal constitutional right

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Speaker 4: to an abortion, they're trying to pass a law instead

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Speaker 4: that says it's the law of the land in America

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Speaker 4: that abortion is legal, and that would bind all of

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Speaker 4: the states because federal laws take precedence over state laws.

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Speaker 4: So that's why this is such a huge issue across

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Speaker 4: the midterms, not only because state governors have the power

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Speaker 4: to set abortion laws and they're up for election, but

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Speaker 4: because Congress itself could pass a national law about abortion.

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Speaker 4: And in general, if the Democrats win control, they're planning

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Speaker 4: to pass that national law. If the Republicans win control,

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Speaker 4: they're saying they're going to try and pass the national

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Speaker 4: law to ban abortion. So it's a huge, I guess

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Speaker 4: referendum if you like, on abortion rights, and that's a big,

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Speaker 4: big part of the focus for both parties. So on

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Speaker 4: the Democratic side of things, Joe Biden's just saying, if

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Speaker 4: you give me two more senators, we can get this done.

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Speaker 4: A national law to legalize abortion has already passed through

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Speaker 4: the House of Representatives, so in a sense, it doesn't

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Speaker 4: really matter if the Democrats lose control there. All that

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Speaker 4: Joe Biden says he needs is two more Democrats and

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Speaker 4: that should be enough to pass that law. Meanwhile, the

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Speaker 4: Republicans are saying, you know, give us control and we

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Speaker 4: will try and pass this law to bannet. Joe Biden

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Speaker 4: says he'd veto that law. It would get all pretty

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Speaker 4: messy and complicated at that point, but definitely abortion rights.

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Speaker 4: I think the big issue this time.

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Speaker 2: We're going to take a short break. We'll be right back.

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Speaker 2: It's incredible that a country is facing such a significant

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Speaker 2: policy decision, and it seems to be really a lineball call.

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Speaker 2: Is that what the polls are saying? What's it shaping

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Speaker 2: up to look like? Yeah, line ball is the right

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Speaker 2: way to put it. Sam So, I think it seems

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Speaker 2: pretty likely that the Republicans are going to win control

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Speaker 2: of the House of Reps. I think that's pretty much

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Speaker 2: a foregone conclusion according to most of the polls. The

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Speaker 2: Senate is a lot closer. It's looking kind of about

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Speaker 2: fifty to fifty again, give or take. It seems unlikely

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Speaker 2: that the Democrats will get their objective of kind of

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Speaker 2: fifty two to fifty three to really push through that

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Speaker 2: abortion change. But you know, the actual control of the

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Speaker 2: Senate looks really kind of close, and then the governor races.

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Speaker 2: I think it looks like overall Democrats will be in

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Speaker 2: charge of more states than the not you know, different

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Speaker 2: races across the country are kind of closer than others.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, when it comes to the House, it's looking

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Speaker 2: like Republicans in the House of Reps and fifty to

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Speaker 2: fifty in the Senate. And to round out this chat, Tom,

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Speaker 2: what are the implications on the presidential race in two

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Speaker 2: years time, in twenty twenty four from these midterms.

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Speaker 4: As I said before, midterms are often taken as a

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Speaker 4: bit of a test of how the public feels about

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Speaker 4: the president halfway through their term. Joe Biden's approval ratings

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Speaker 4: have dropped off quite a lot, and I think it's

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Speaker 4: fair to say that a poor result here would make

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Speaker 4: Democrats a little bit nervous about twenty twenty four and

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Speaker 4: race of questions about whether Biden, who is obviously quite old,

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Speaker 4: should run again or whether the Democrats should try and

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Speaker 4: run somebody else. On the Republican side of things, it's

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Speaker 4: really all about this question whether Donald Trump is going

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Speaker 4: to run again. So a couple of the people who

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Speaker 4: might be alternatives to Trump, including Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor.

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Speaker 4: He's up for reelection and so it's a chance for

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Speaker 4: him to, I guess, have a strong showing and build

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Speaker 4: his case. But there are a lot of candidates across

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Speaker 4: the country who are Trump endorsed. You can almost split

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Speaker 4: the Republican Party into who's a Trump endorsed candidate and

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Speaker 4: who's not at the moment, and it's going to be

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Speaker 4: the performance of those Trump endorsed candidates that's really one

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Speaker 4: to watch. So there are three in particular that I

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Speaker 4: think it's worth keeping an eye on. They're all pretty

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Speaker 4: colorful and controversial. They're all Senate candidates. So there's Herschel Walker,

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Speaker 4: the ex footballer. He's found himself in a fair bit

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Speaker 4: of trouble, facing domestic abuse allegations and allegations that he

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Speaker 4: paid for a partner's abortion despite his own anti abortion views.

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Speaker 4: There's Doctor Oz, who's I guess a famous medical TV

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Speaker 4: personality who's running in Philadelphia, and there have been sort

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Speaker 4: of stories linking him to being involved in a medical

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Speaker 4: research company that was experimenting on puppies. And then there's JD. Vance,

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Speaker 4: who was kind of known as a bit of a

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Speaker 4: kind of Republican author and writer. He wrote Hillbilly Elergy,

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Speaker 4: which got turned into a Netflix movie a couple of

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Speaker 4: years ago. He's also been a bit of a colorful

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Speaker 4: and controversial candidate. They're all quite divisive campaigns. Exactly how

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Speaker 4: those three will perform will give a good sense of

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Speaker 4: whether Trump still has the electoral pool that he used

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Speaker 4: to and whether he might be the candidate for twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty four. The final thing to say, I think as well, is,

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Speaker 4: I mean, this is the first election in America since

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Speaker 4: what was a pretty fractious and contentious and violent election

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Speaker 4: time we had the storming of the Capitol in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 4: This is the first time I've had an election since then,

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Speaker 4: So seeing whether the results of this election will even

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Speaker 4: be accepted by Republican candidates, you know, whether there will

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Speaker 4: be disputes over the legitimacy of the results, whether there

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Speaker 4: will be riots. I think all of these are really

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Speaker 4: important questions to be asking about America at the moment,

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Speaker 4: especially as we look forward to twenty twenty four, if

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Speaker 4: Trump runs again, whether we can expect similar sort of

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Speaker 4: riots and violence. I think, you know, seeing whether these

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Speaker 4: elections go down smoothly this week will be as much

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Speaker 4: an important thing to watch as anything else.

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Speaker 2: That doesn't fill me with a heap of comfort, but

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Speaker 2: it's definitely going to be a major part of the

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Speaker 2: modern American story. Perhaps will get you back on the

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Speaker 2: podcast later in the week, tom just to give us

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Speaker 2: a quick update on where things stand. Doesn't sound like

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Speaker 2: from your reports we will have a clear result, but

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Speaker 2: will get you to keep us in the loop with

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Speaker 2: whatever is happening. That's all we've got time for on

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Speaker 2: today's episode of The Daily Os. If you need something

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Speaker 2: else to listen to, check out the Mirror. If not,

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