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Speaker 1: Already and this is the Dahlias. Oh now it makes sense.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, and welcome to the Daily Os. It's Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: the sixth of May. I'm Zara Seidler.

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Speaker 1: I'm Billy fit Simon's.

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Speaker 2: As the results from Saturday's federal election continue to roll in,

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Speaker 2: it's clear that Labor will govern with a significant majority.

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Speaker 2: It's also clear that the Liberal Party has endured one

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Speaker 2: of its worst electoral defeats in modern history. There are

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Speaker 2: many reasons and many critiques being thrown around when it

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Speaker 2: comes to explaining what happened to the Liberal Party, some

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Speaker 2: from inside the party and others from outside the party.

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Speaker 2: On today's podcast, we're going to talk through some of

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Speaker 2: the features of the Liberal Party's campaign that have been

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Speaker 2: focused on since their loss.

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Speaker 1: So Zara, we're going to get into all of the

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Speaker 1: reasons that are kind of being thrown around about why

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Speaker 1: the coalition lost this election so substantially. We did briefly

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Speaker 1: touch on it on yesterday's podcast, but we think we should.

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Speaker 2: Go into a blur.

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Speaker 1: We should go into more detail today. But before we

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Speaker 1: get to that, do you want to just set out

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Speaker 1: the state of play as to where things are at

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Speaker 1: with accounting for the election.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so at the time of recording, the Liberal Party

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Speaker 2: has picked up just thirty nine seats in the next parliament,

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Speaker 2: as we spoke about yesterday. That's down from fifty eight seats.

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Speaker 2: The coalition's primary vote fell more than five percent, and

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Speaker 2: the Liberal Party and certainly the Coalition lost votes universally.

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Speaker 2: And by that, I just mean there wasn't one key

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Speaker 2: demographic that they lost. You know, last election, the fact

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Speaker 2: that they lost women was focused on a lot. It's

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Speaker 2: not really the same thing here. They kind of lost

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Speaker 2: everybody across the board. All in all, I'd say one sentence,

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Speaker 2: the state of play is very dire for the Liberal Party.

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Speaker 1: And so we're going to talk about kind of of

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Speaker 1: the domestic and internal reasons as to why some experts

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Speaker 1: are saying that was. But first let's look at the

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Speaker 1: potential influence that US President Donald Trump had, because some

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Speaker 1: are saying that that is one of the reasons why

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Speaker 1: they lost as much as they did. Yeah, what are

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Speaker 1: people saying about this?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a really interesting one because you're right,

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Speaker 2: it is an external factor. It is international news, but

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Speaker 2: it does have quite a tangible effect locally, and I

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Speaker 2: think that's for two reasons. The first is that at

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Speaker 2: a time where I don't think it's contentious to say

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Speaker 2: that Donald Trump there's quite a lot of unpredictability in

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Speaker 2: his politics at a time like that, voters wanted stability,

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Speaker 2: and so we are seeing, as we spoke about yesterday,

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Speaker 2: a real turn back to the incumbent and sticking with

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Speaker 2: basically a safe pair of hands. But the second part

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Speaker 2: of this is that analysts are saying that the Liberal

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Speaker 2: Party didn't separate themselves enough from Donald Trump. So just

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Speaker 2: to explain that a bit more, a couple of months

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Speaker 2: Agonald Trump and his policies were fairly popular. I mean,

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Speaker 2: he won the US election, he's inauguration, he did a

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Speaker 2: whole bunch of things, and at that time Peter Dudden

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Speaker 2: seemed to reflect quite a few of those features here

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Speaker 2: in Australia. So we've spoken about before the fact that

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Speaker 2: he announced a shadow portfolio that was the Department of

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Speaker 2: Government Efficiency that was understood to be related to the

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Speaker 2: same thing that is led by Elon Musk in the US.

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Speaker 2: He announced plans to cut the public service similar to

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Speaker 2: the way that Donald Trump did, and he announced plans

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Speaker 2: to end working from home for the public service. Again

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Speaker 2: similar to what we were seeing in the US.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: While he backflipped on those policies, at the end they

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Speaker 2: were largely seen to be influenced by the US and

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Speaker 2: so when public sentiment turned away from Donald Trump and

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Speaker 2: when the tariffs were announced and there was a lot

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Speaker 2: of instability, analysts are saying Peter Dudden didn't do enough

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Speaker 2: to separate himself and say no, we are very different.

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Speaker 2: That also wasn't helped when members of his party of

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Speaker 2: the Coalition were seen wearing Make America Great Again hats.

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Speaker 2: That was just enterprise a senator, and so taken together,

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Speaker 2: there was this idea that Peter Dudden had not done

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Speaker 2: enough to say we are different to Donald Trump and

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Speaker 2: to the Trump administration, and that that had quite a

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Speaker 2: big effect when it came to this election.

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Speaker 1: I also think their messaging was quite confusing because you

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Speaker 1: mentioned the Department of Government Efficiency that exists under Trump's administration,

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Speaker 1: and then Peter Dudden announced that if he was elected

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Speaker 1: to government, there would be a Minister for Government Efficiency.

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Speaker 1: And we spoke to the Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor and said, clearly,

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Speaker 1: those two things are related. It's not a coincidence that

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Speaker 1: you guys have something that is named exactly the same

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Speaker 1: as what is under Trump's administration, and they said, no,

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Speaker 1: they're not related. And I think that was quite confusing.

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Speaker 1: Like if you, I think a lot of people said,

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Speaker 1: if you're going to replicate something from Trump's administration own

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Speaker 1: and then set yeah, and then say, but they're not related,

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Speaker 1: that's really confusing. And so I think it was, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they didn't distance themselves enough, but I think they kind

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Speaker 1: of weren't clear on how they wanted it to be

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Speaker 1: related between the two, and that's why it came across

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Speaker 1: as so confusing.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think this goes to a bigger issue, which

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about, which is that I don't think the

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Speaker 2: party itself had settled on whether or not they wanted

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Speaker 2: to be emulating the Trump presidency or not. And you know,

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Speaker 2: there are lots of different perspectives in modern political parties,

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Speaker 2: and I don't know that they necessarily communicated that in

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Speaker 2: the most effective way possible.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's move on to what happened domestically now. In

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Speaker 1: the lead up to this election, part of the electorates

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Speaker 1: that Peter Dudden was trying to win were the outer

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Speaker 1: suburban areas of Australia. Now we've seen in the results

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Speaker 1: that they have not picked up those seats, they've actually

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Speaker 1: lost pretty much all of them. Yeah, do you want

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Speaker 1: to take us through that?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting. So it was very clear in Peter

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Speaker 2: Duddan's strategy that, as you said, he was really trying

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Speaker 2: to focus on those out suburban seats, and like you

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Speaker 2: just said, not only did he not win those, but

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Speaker 2: because he wasn't focusing on those inner city seats, they

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Speaker 2: actually lost those seats as well. So when you look

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Speaker 2: one way and don't look the other, that ends up,

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Speaker 2: you know, kind of with nothing. And that's what happened here.

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Speaker 2: So Peter Dudden's strategy was to appeal to those outer

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Speaker 2: suburban voters by focusing on what he labeled the cost

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Speaker 2: of living failures of the Albanese government, and also by

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Speaker 2: pitching more i guess, socially conservative policy ideas, So those

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Speaker 2: ideas that might stick more in those suburbs as opposed

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Speaker 2: to in the kind of metropolitan urban city seats.

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Speaker 1: Do you want to explain why did he think that

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Speaker 1: those kind of policies would be more popular in the

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Speaker 1: outer suburban seats.

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Speaker 2: It's hard to generalize because you know, no two seats

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Speaker 2: are the same, no two people are the same. But

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Speaker 2: generally he was looking away from the more affluent areas

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Speaker 2: that the Liberal Party had typically always held and he

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Speaker 2: was trying to win back new seat and he was

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Speaker 2: trying to appeal to them with cost of living related

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Speaker 2: stuff and that's why the pitch was that he thought

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Speaker 2: he could get those seats that way, but it didn't work.

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Speaker 2: One Liberal MP, Keith Wallahan, who looks like he's going

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Speaker 2: to lose his seat in Victoria, he's been doing a

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Speaker 2: lot of media. He was on ABC's Insiders on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: He said, ever since election night on twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 2: it was clear that our party had an issue in

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Speaker 2: urban Australia, which is where most people live. Most people

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Speaker 2: live in cities. He said, we need to really dig

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Speaker 2: deep and think about who we are and who we

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Speaker 2: fight for and who makes up Australia professional people, professional women,

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Speaker 2: younger people. He said that regional and rural party members

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Speaker 2: need to consider what metropolitan based Aussies are thinking and

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Speaker 2: doing when it comes to the big issues. So basically

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Speaker 2: he's saying we took our eye off the Liberal base

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Speaker 2: by trying to get these outer suburban voters and that

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Speaker 2: that backfired and that the party needs to rethink the

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Speaker 2: way that they're going to keep their base moving forward.

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Speaker 1: Sounds like they're having an identity crisis.

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Speaker 2: Genuinely, which is quite really. I mean, say, do you.

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Speaker 1: Want to just explain then, who do the Liberal Party

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Speaker 1: see that they are representing?

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Speaker 2: I mean, if I could answer that, then I think

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Speaker 2: I would solve all of the Liberal Party's problems. Again,

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Speaker 2: I think that all we can draw on is what

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Speaker 2: Liberal Party members themselves are saying, like they're kind of

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Speaker 2: self diagnosing the problem. Here we heard from Simon Birmingham.

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Speaker 2: He was a very long time serving Liberal senator who

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Speaker 2: posted a very long post to LinkedIn over the weekend

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Speaker 2: where he said the problem was that the party was

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Speaker 2: trying to court both kind of the centrist economic liberals

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Speaker 2: but then also the ideologically conservative right wing liberals, and

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Speaker 2: that tension was getting very hard to reconcile. That someone

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Speaker 2: like Peter Dunden, who was more conservative, wasn't appealing to

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Speaker 2: those kind of centrist old school liberals, and that as

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Speaker 2: a result, they weren't kind of speaking to anyone. He said,

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Speaker 2: the broad Church model of a party that successfully melds

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Speaker 2: liberal and conservative thinking is clearly broken. The Liberal Party

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Speaker 2: is not seen as remotely liberal, and the brand of

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Speaker 2: conservatism projected is clearly perceived as too harsh and out

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Speaker 2: of touch.

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Speaker 1: So, just to explain if I'm understanding it, right, is

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Speaker 1: he saying that they went too right correct?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: So they're saying that their policies were too conservative. Yep,

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Speaker 1: too right wing and they need to move back to

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Speaker 1: the center.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. And this has been repeated by a lot of

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Speaker 2: different people. The fact that the Liberal Party, for example,

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Speaker 2: were against the tax cuts that labor put on the table,

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Speaker 2: Like traditional liberal thinking is that taxes need to be

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Speaker 2: as low as possible. And so what Simon Birmingham is saying,

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Speaker 2: what others are saying is by focusing on kind of

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Speaker 2: that culture war stuff, that they are abandoning the very

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Speaker 2: traditional liberal policies and ideals that made the party who

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Speaker 2: it was.

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Speaker 1: I think that's also particularly interesting based on the fact

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Speaker 1: that they lost the last election. They were learnings from

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Speaker 1: that election, although I guess it's up for debate whether

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Speaker 1: they actually took on those learnings exactly.

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Speaker 2: Again, one of the learnings was about how to reach

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Speaker 2: more professional women. One of those things was about getting

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Speaker 2: more women pre selected in winnable seats. The Liberal Party

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Speaker 2: did not do that this time. And so what Ti'm

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Speaker 2: in Birmingham saying is we aren't learning our lesson, we

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Speaker 2: aren't changing. But I do think now there is kind

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Speaker 2: of this existential crisis of identity, as you said, for

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Speaker 2: the Liberal Party, and something is going to have to change.

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Speaker 2: To have their lowest primary vote on record, you can't

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Speaker 2: really just move forward the same way you've done it

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Speaker 2: and expect any kind of different outcome there.

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Speaker 1: One thing we haven't spoken about is the personal popularity

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Speaker 1: of Peter Dudden as the leader of the coalition.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it is interesting because this podcast I focused on

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Speaker 2: what Liberal Party members are saying. And obviously they're not

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Speaker 2: going to say that their leader was unpopular or that

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Speaker 2: they didn't back their leader, because you know, at the

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Speaker 2: end of the day, they are a party. But it's

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Speaker 2: impossible to ignore the swing that Peter Dudden saw in

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Speaker 2: his own personal seat of Dixon. Of course, we know

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Speaker 2: he lost that seat and by quite a lot, and

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Speaker 2: so I think it would be remiss of us not

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Speaker 2: to highlight the fact that Peter Dudden was not a

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Speaker 2: popular leader, and certainly if the lessons that the Liberal

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Speaker 2: Party are talking about, you know, about coming closer to

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Speaker 2: the center, about including more women, those sorts of things,

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Speaker 2: then Peter Dudden is not the leader that they would

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Speaker 2: have chosen moving forward. On the flip side, though, on

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Speaker 2: election night, just Enterprice was saying that she thinks part

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Speaker 2: of the Liberal Party's loss was actually the result of

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Speaker 2: a smear campaign by Labor against the character of Peter Dudden.

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Speaker 2: So she was saying that the reason that they lost

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Speaker 2: was that Peter Dudden's character was basically decimated by these

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Speaker 2: negative campaigns by Labor. But I'm not really seeing many

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Speaker 2: people talking about this. It does seem to be more

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Speaker 2: about the campaign was just not as effective as they

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Speaker 2: wanted it to be.

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Speaker 1: And we briefly touched on yesterday who will replace Peter

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Speaker 1: Duncan now as the leader of the Liberal Party. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: do you want to explain a little bit more who

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Speaker 1: the contenders are and kind of what their politics are? Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So, I mean all we can go off is media reporting,

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Speaker 2: because no one's explicitly put their hand up and said

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Speaker 2: I'm going to run for this. And before I go

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Speaker 2: through who is actually in contention, it's important to say

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Speaker 2: that the vote for who becomes leader won't happen until

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Speaker 2: a bit more of the counting is done, because we

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Speaker 2: still don't know who's basically going to be in contention,

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Speaker 2: because we don't know who's going to be in Parliament.

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Speaker 2: But when that does happen. The people that have emerged

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Speaker 2: as front runners are Angus Taylor, who you sat down

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Speaker 2: with and interviewed. He was the shadow treasurer. He's part

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Speaker 2: of the conservative faction of the Liberal Party. He's deemed

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Speaker 2: a front runner just because the treasurer is pretty much

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Speaker 2: a two ic to the leader. One of the kind

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Speaker 2: of downsides I guess for him is that people are

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Speaker 2: saying he was in charge of the economic narrative this

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Speaker 2: campaign and that there was a pretty big rejection of

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Speaker 2: that narrative by the people. And could he be seen

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Speaker 2: as too close to Dudden's campaign, who he's failed campaign

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Speaker 2: to be successful. I know that Holly Hughes, who is

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Speaker 2: one of Angus Taylor's colleagues, was very clear speaking to

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Speaker 2: media saying she does not think it should be him

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Speaker 2: because of how badly the Liberal Party did when it

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Speaker 2: came to their economic policies. But he is considered a

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Speaker 2: front runner so who knows. Another person is Susan Lee.

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Speaker 2: She is a moderate. She is also a woman, and

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Speaker 2: given the fact that a lot of the post mortem

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Speaker 2: seems to be that the Liberal Party has lost its

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Speaker 2: female base, this could be an interesting way to try

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Speaker 2: win women back over. Susan Lee was serving as the

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Speaker 2: deputy leader of the Liberal Party, so she has held

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Speaker 2: senior positions before, so she is definitely one of the

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Speaker 2: ones to keep an eye on. And then, lastly, the

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Speaker 2: contender that has emerged, which perhaps most unexpectedly is Dan Tian,

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Speaker 2: and I say unexpectedly only because he was kind of

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Speaker 2: expected to lose his seat. Alex Dyson, who has spoken about,

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Speaker 2: was expected to get very close to unseating him and

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Speaker 2: that didn't happen. Dantin did maintain his seat, and he's

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Speaker 2: been one of the few people of the list I

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Speaker 2: just spoke about who's been out in front of the

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Speaker 2: media talking about the Liberal Party loss and he's really

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Speaker 2: kind of gotten ahead of the news cycle there. So

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Speaker 2: he is seen as kind of a safe pair of hands.

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Speaker 2: He's been in Parliament for a long time, he's not

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Speaker 2: very extreme in either direction, so he's also an option

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Speaker 2: for the Liberal Party.

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Speaker 1: So interesting we'll definitely keep everyone updated once we know

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Speaker 1: who the leader is. Last election, I think it took

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Speaker 1: just over a week for us to know that Peter

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Speaker 1: Dunnan would be the next opposition leader.

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Speaker 2: And he was unopposed. Like the voting is a lot

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Speaker 2: easier when it's unopposed. You just need a majority of

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Speaker 2: the party room. But if whoever it is isn't unopposed,

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Speaker 2: then it gets a bit more complicated and it could

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Speaker 2: take quite a bit longer. I think interestingly, Peter Duddan

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Speaker 2: last time was the very clear next step, like he'd

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Speaker 2: tried to do it before it was clear it was

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Speaker 2: going to be him this time. I don't think anyone

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Speaker 2: really stands out as the clear next choice, perhaps only

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Speaker 2: Angus Taylor, but as I said, there are some downsides

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Speaker 2: to that for the party.

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Speaker 1: Will be very interesting to watch. Thanks for taking us

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Speaker 1: through at Zara, Thanks Billy, and thank you for listening

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Speaker 1: to this episode of The Daily OS. We'll be back

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Speaker 1: again this afternoon with your evening headlines, but until then,

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Speaker 1: have a great day. My name is Lily Madden and

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Speaker 1: I'm a proud Arunda bunge lung Kalkutin woman from gadighl country.

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Speaker 1: The Daily oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on

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Speaker 1: the lands of the Gadighl people and pays respect to

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Speaker 1: all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island and nations. We pay

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Speaker 1: our respects to the first peoples of these countries, both

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Speaker 1: past and present