1 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: Good morning and welcome to the Daily OS and Happy Friday, 2 00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:07,880 Speaker 1: the twenty ninth of July. 3 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:12,719 Speaker 2: The global picture is complex and the outlook is confronting. 4 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:17,120 Speaker 1: The world economy is treading a precarious and a perilous path. 5 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 1: The Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has told us to buckle 6 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:23,279 Speaker 1: up because there is a bumpy road ahead for all 7 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:25,760 Speaker 1: of us. TDA reporter Tom Crowley is going to join 8 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: us on today's deep dive to tell us what's what 9 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 1: and if we need to be worried. But first, Zara, 10 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: what is making headlines this Friday morning? 11 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 2: Well, Monkeybox has been declared a disease of national significance 12 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 2: here in Australia. This follows the Who's announcement earlier this 13 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 2: week that the disease constituted what we call a global 14 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,160 Speaker 2: health emergency. There have been forty four cases in Australia 15 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 2: to date, with most cases occurring among people age twenty 16 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 2: one to forty. 17 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 1: A new study from Australian researchers have found that half 18 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 1: of all Australians will experience technology facilitated abuse in their lifetimes. 19 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: That is, abuse in the form of violence using mobile, 20 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: online or digital technology. 21 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 2: Former New South Wales Deputy Premier John Barrolaro has been 22 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 2: called to appear at the parliamentary inquiry that's investigating his 23 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 2: now relinquished trade posting in New York. He's been invited 24 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:23,120 Speaker 2: to appear on Monday, the eighth of August. 25 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: And today's good news. The twenty second Commonwealth Games will 26 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 1: begin today. A team of four hundred and thirty athletes 27 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 1: will represent Australia in Birmingham over in the UK. Among 28 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 1: the Australian participants are ten First Nations athletes. That's a 29 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:46,320 Speaker 1: record number representing Australia at the Commonwealth Games. Yesterday we 30 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:49,639 Speaker 1: heard Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers give his first economic update 31 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 1: in Parliament and it wasn't pretty listening. 32 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 2: You're right, it was a bit grim. But before we 33 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 2: get into the details, can you just give us a 34 00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 2: bit of an overview about what the update actually was. 35 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: So think of this like weather, and this was an 36 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: economic forecast, except instead of rain predictions, the Treasurer is 37 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: telling us whether to expect calm or an economic storm. 38 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 2: And safe to say he wasn't entirely forecasting any calm. 39 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 1: I think we're going to need to bring our umbrellas 40 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 1: to help us unpack some of this jargon and to 41 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 1: work out just how worried we should be. We're joined 42 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: by TDA journalist Tom Crowley direct from Parliament House this morning. Tom, 43 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 1: what's the vibe there today? 44 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 3: It's kind of the vibe of the first week of school, 45 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,519 Speaker 3: I think, Sam, everyone's new. It is my first time 46 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 3: really wandering around the building, but it feels like the 47 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 3: government and the opposition, everybody's settling into their new roles, 48 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 3: figuring out exactly what the character and the tone of 49 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 3: this new Parliament is going to be. 50 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 1: And you were in Parliament when the Treasurer delivered this speech. 51 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 1: He started things off really setting the scene globally. What 52 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 1: were his key points here? 53 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, so he ended up talking about Australia, but as 54 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 3: you say, he started by, I guess saying the problems 55 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:59,359 Speaker 3: that we have a global problems too. Everyone's kind of 56 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 3: going through version of the same thing. So some of 57 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 3: the causes of our price rises here are things like 58 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 3: the war in Ukraine. They're things that are affecting everybody, 59 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 3: the US, the number of European countries, pretty much all 60 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 3: over the world. There are these rising price problems creating 61 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 3: trouble and in a lot of places it's worse that 62 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:19,639 Speaker 3: it is here. And the Treasurer made the point that 63 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 3: these things affect Australia. So he talked about China in particular. 64 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 3: China is in a bit of a delicate economic position 65 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:29,079 Speaker 3: at the moment. One reason for that is they're very 66 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 3: strict COVID policies which are dampening economic activity, and that 67 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 3: affects how much they can trade with us. It affects 68 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 3: all sorts of things. So these kind of global storm clouds, 69 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 3: they can affect Australia as well. And so I guess 70 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 3: he's setting that scene to suggest, you know, it's not 71 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 3: all some problem that we've cooked up here at home. 72 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 3: That the world is going through a difficult time at 73 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,800 Speaker 3: the moment, and the world economy is looking like it's 74 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 3: going to be slow over the next little while, and 75 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 3: that sets the context for what's happening here. 76 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 1: And the key driver for all of these problems seems 77 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: to be inflation. This week we heard that the cost 78 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:02,840 Speaker 1: of living was up six point one percent, which is 79 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 1: the worst we've seen in twenty years. How are things 80 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 1: looking moving forward in this respect? 81 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 3: So the simple answer is, first a little worse than 82 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 3: hopefully a little better soon. The prediction is that by 83 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:16,640 Speaker 3: the end of the year, by December, that inflation number 84 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 3: might get up close to eight percent. So these price 85 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 3: rises were not done with them just yet. But then 86 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 3: the government expects, and this is similar to what we've 87 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 3: heard from the Reserve Bank recently, expects it will start 88 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 3: to come under control. So the language that was used 89 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 3: was that it will moderate next year, so kind of 90 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 3: I guess flatten out a little bit that that growth, 91 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:37,039 Speaker 3: and then it will start to fall back down towards 92 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 3: kind of a normal level. So the Reserve Bank tends 93 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 3: to aim for between two and three percent. I know 94 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 3: these numbers don't mean much, but I guess you can 95 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 3: kind of compare. That's quite a bit lower than six 96 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 3: or seven. The government thinks that we'll be back in 97 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 3: that kind of normal range by twenty twenty four. 98 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: Speaking of the Reserve Bank, another thing we've been hearing 99 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 1: a lot about recently is interest rates, and just a 100 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:00,280 Speaker 1: reminder for everyone, the Reserve Bank has been raising them 101 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 1: to try and slow down the high inflation that you 102 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:06,040 Speaker 1: just talked us through, Tom, Did this forecast say anything 103 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 1: about whether that strategy will work? Sort of it's not 104 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 1: the government's job to talk about the RBA's interest rate 105 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: decisions or to have a view on that, so certainly 106 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 1: the Treasury didn't go that far. The key thing that 107 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,600 Speaker 1: this teased out was the consequences. So to put it 108 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 1: in the simplest terms, I can interest rates one of 109 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: our weapons against inflation, but they're kind of like a 110 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:31,560 Speaker 1: double edged sword. To use the weapon metaphor, they might 111 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:34,359 Speaker 1: fix the rising prices problem, but they do that basically 112 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 1: by curtailing our spending. And curtailing our spending can have 113 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 1: effects on jobs and businesses and the wider economy. So 114 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 1: there's kind of a consequence to doing that, and that 115 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 1: means that sometimes, and we've seen this in the past 116 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 1: and in other countries, raising interest rates to fight inflation, 117 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 1: you can actually cause a recession, a big economic downturn 118 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:56,039 Speaker 1: where lots of people lose their jobs, and that would 119 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:58,840 Speaker 1: be a really, really bad outcome. What we heard today 120 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:01,480 Speaker 1: was that the government and expect that to happen. Again, 121 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:04,479 Speaker 1: that's pretty consistent with what the Reserve Bank has said recently. 122 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:07,760 Speaker 1: They don't expect that to happen either, but that these 123 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 1: interest rates will have some effect. Basically, they'll slow down 124 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: the rate at which economic activity is growing, and unemployment, 125 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 1: the manage of people who can't find jobs, might go 126 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,839 Speaker 1: up a little bit, but will remain fairly low. So 127 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 1: that's kind of a prediction that we'll see some consequences 128 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 1: of that over the next little while, but that the 129 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 1: lasting effects of that shouldn't be too significant. So, tom 130 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: when have we put something up on Instagram about economics? 131 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 1: There tends to be this discussion about wages growth. We 132 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 1: know everyone's feeling the crunch, So what's the forecast here? 133 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 1: Are we going to start taking home some extra cash 134 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 1: from our employers? Yeah, so this is the stuff that 135 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 1: matters to most of us, isn't it right? I Mean, 136 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 1: we can talk about where the prices are going, where 137 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 1: the economy is going, how many jobs they'll be, But 138 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 1: what am I going to get paid? And is that 139 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:56,280 Speaker 1: going to start going forwards in a real sense? Can 140 00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 1: I buy more things in future? That's the kind of 141 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 1: thing that I guess is most real for us in 142 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 1: a sense. And again, similar to inflation, the story is 143 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 1: still bad for a little while and then hopefully it 144 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 1: will improve. So what the government is saying is that 145 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:14,160 Speaker 1: again because prices are growing so fast, basically that wages 146 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 1: will not be able to keep up for the next 147 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 1: year or so, but that within a year we might 148 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 1: start seeing what we call real wages growth, which is 149 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 1: just wages growing faster than prices basically, to put it 150 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 1: as simply as I can, and that again means that 151 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 1: your wage can buy more and that's what the government 152 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: wants to happen. They expect that it'll happen within a year. 153 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 1: So what does this all mean for government? This government 154 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: is only three days into the first week of sitting 155 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 1: and they have a lot of policies they want to 156 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 1: get funded and off the ground. 157 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, and they're definitely going to stick with those policies. 158 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 3: I think they're not going to change their mind as 159 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 3: a result of any of this. But we're getting some 160 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 3: warnings and the language from the Treasurer is that all 161 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 3: of these sort of storm clouds mean that the government 162 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 3: can't bely generous, and that the language he keeps using 163 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 3: is that the government's going to have to make some 164 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 3: hard decisions. So they've talked about a lot of kind 165 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 3: of wasteful spending that they suggest that the previous government 166 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 3: had that they might be looking to trim when the 167 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 3: next budget comes along, But there are also a number 168 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 3: of warnings they're making that they can't necessarily spend on 169 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 3: everything that they might in a perfect world want to 170 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 3: spend on because of these conditions. And the key link 171 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 3: there is in the same way interest rates make it 172 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 3: more expensive for us to borrow and spend, basically, it 173 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 3: does the same thing for the government. And so this 174 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 3: sort of situation means that just as many of us 175 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 3: might have to tighten our belts, the government is suggesting 176 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 3: it's worried about not wanting to take on too much debt, 177 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 3: and it believes that it needs to tighten its belt 178 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:42,840 Speaker 3: as well. So it certainly wouldn't expect any kind of 179 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 3: reversal of any of the things that Labor promised to 180 00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 3: spend on in the election. Of course, we knew inflation 181 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 3: was a problem back then, so they came up with 182 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 3: those policies in that environment. But for anyone who's expecting 183 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:54,079 Speaker 3: them to go further and do a lot of new 184 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,440 Speaker 3: spending things, we may not see that just yet. At 185 00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 3: least that's not what the Treasure's language is suggesting. 186 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:02,079 Speaker 1: Thanks for coming and unpacking that for us this morning, 187 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 1: tom My Pleasure, Sam that is all we have time 188 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 1: for today on the Daily Oz. Thanks so much for 189 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 1: joining us on the pod. Before we go, we've done 190 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:13,679 Speaker 1: a lot of gazing into the future, big picture, thinking 191 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 1: about where our economy is going. But these numbers aren't 192 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 1: just something that happens in the news. They're impacting you 193 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 1: and I and your life right now, and we want 194 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 1: to hear about it. Tell us how the cost of 195 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:26,320 Speaker 1: living is impacting your life by clicking through to the 196 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 1: poll in the show notes. We'd love to hear from you. 197 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 1: Until next week. Have a sensational weekend.