WEBVTT - Declining fertility rates, explained

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<v Speaker 1>Already and this is the daily This is the Daily

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<v Speaker 1>ohs oh, now it makes sense.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Friday,

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<v Speaker 2>the thirteenth of June. I'm Zara Seidler.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Billy fitz Simon's.

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<v Speaker 2>This week, the United Nations released its most comprehensive report

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<v Speaker 2>yet on the state of fertility around the world. The

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<v Speaker 2>report confirmed the global fertility rates are dropping and that

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<v Speaker 2>it's not necessarily for the reasons we're often told it is.

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<v Speaker 2>In today's podcast, we'll unpack the findings of the UN report,

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<v Speaker 2>how this is manifesting here in Australia, and how governments

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<v Speaker 2>can address this issue moving forward.

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<v Speaker 1>Zara, when we talk about fertility rates, I feel like

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<v Speaker 1>we often talk about specific countries. So I know, in Japan,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, we often talk about the declining birth rates

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<v Speaker 1>the big way. But it's interesting that this report is

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<v Speaker 1>looking at the globe as a whole and what is

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<v Speaker 1>happening absolutely everywhere with the fertility rate.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So wh it's such a big report because it

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<v Speaker 2>is looking at the state of play across a bunch

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<v Speaker 2>of different countries from different socioeconomic backgrounds, and it's finding

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<v Speaker 2>a similar kind of through line or a similar trend.

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<v Speaker 3>So what did it find?

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<v Speaker 2>So essentially the shorthands is that it found that global

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<v Speaker 2>fertility rates are declining across the board. According to that

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<v Speaker 2>same report, the human population is projected to reach its

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<v Speaker 2>peak within the century, but then from there it's going

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<v Speaker 2>to fall. So I feel like for our whole life,

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<v Speaker 2>we've spoken about how you know, we have more people

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<v Speaker 2>on Earth than ever an overpopulation, But what this is

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<v Speaker 2>saying is that actually that human population is going to fall.

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<v Speaker 2>One in four people are currently living in a country

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<v Speaker 2>where the size of the population is understood to have

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<v Speaker 2>already hit that peak, and so I think it's helpful

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<v Speaker 2>to paint the picture here in Australia, where our birth

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<v Speaker 2>rate has been falling for decades, and I know you

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<v Speaker 2>and I have spoken about this on the pod before.

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<v Speaker 2>If we go back to the fifties, the birth rate

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<v Speaker 2>in Australia was three point five babies per woman. In

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<v Speaker 2>two thousand and eight, that birth rate was two point

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<v Speaker 2>zero two children per woman, and then in twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 2>three it was one point five children per woman.

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<v Speaker 3>Wow, so it has dropped quite significantly.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's only going in one way, and it's pretty

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<v Speaker 2>clear that there is this trend over the last few

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<v Speaker 2>decades of women in Australia having less children.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's helpful whenever we're talking about a declining

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<v Speaker 1>birth rate to understand why it can be considered an issue,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly an economic issue, which you don't often think about,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, women having babies as something that is global

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<v Speaker 1>or even on the specific country level, an economic issue

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<v Speaker 1>for that country.

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<v Speaker 3>But it kind of is.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. I mean, it's something you and I strangely find

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<v Speaker 2>ourselves speaking about a lot, and certainly when you've sat

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<v Speaker 2>down and interviewed treasurers or shadow treasures, this is something

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<v Speaker 2>that's come up. The reason it's an issue is that

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<v Speaker 2>basically we have an aging population at the same time

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<v Speaker 2>as we have a shrinking working population. And so if

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<v Speaker 2>I just unpack that, really clearly we've got people getting

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<v Speaker 2>older and living for longer, which is great. I mean

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<v Speaker 2>it depends on who you are. Objectively a good thing

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<v Speaker 2>living standards, but fewer people that are then of working

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<v Speaker 2>age and who are contributing to the economy, and so

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<v Speaker 2>the consequence of that is that there is this increased

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<v Speaker 2>economic pressure on governments. So, like I just said, that's

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<v Speaker 2>because we have less people being able to work and

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<v Speaker 2>pay taxes, which is the key way that the government

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<v Speaker 2>raises money, and more people in that aging population who

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<v Speaker 2>require assistance, whether that be health services, the pension, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>whatever it is that they need in their old age.

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<v Speaker 2>There is this incongruence between where the money is coming

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<v Speaker 2>from and what it's being spent on. And the other

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<v Speaker 2>thing I think that isn't spoken about very often though,

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<v Speaker 2>is the fact that it means there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>pressure on younger people to care for old people and

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<v Speaker 2>the economic burden that that can carry if they have

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<v Speaker 2>to leave the workforce for that.

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<v Speaker 1>So to put it really simply, and maybe this is

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<v Speaker 1>too simplistic, but we have less people paying taxes and

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<v Speaker 1>more people needing tax payer money.

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<v Speaker 3>Correct, got it.

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<v Speaker 1>So we know that it can be a bad thing

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<v Speaker 1>for economies. What did this report tell us about why

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<v Speaker 1>there is this declining birth rate?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah? Well, I mean this is the golden question and

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<v Speaker 2>it's certainly the one that this UN report was trying

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<v Speaker 2>to answer. I'll just quickly run through what this report

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<v Speaker 2>actually was because I'd certainly never seen anything of its kind. Essentially,

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<v Speaker 2>it was undertaken by the UN Population Fund and It

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<v Speaker 2>surveyed fourteen thousand people across fourteen different countries about their

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<v Speaker 2>fertility intentions. The final report was called The Real Fertility Crisis,

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<v Speaker 2>and it was a very very long read. So I

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<v Speaker 2>guess I'll just give you a too long didn't read,

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<v Speaker 2>which is to say that the fertility rate is declining

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<v Speaker 2>not because people don't want to have children, but rather

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<v Speaker 2>that they are prevented from making the decision to have

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<v Speaker 2>children because of external factors. So let me just really

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<v Speaker 2>clearly simplify that the UN isn't saying that there is

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<v Speaker 2>a fertility crisis because young people don't want to have kids.

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<v Speaker 2>What they're saying is hundreds of millions of people aren't

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<v Speaker 2>having the number of children they want because the conditions

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<v Speaker 2>just aren't right for them to be able to do that.

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<v Speaker 2>And before I go any further, Billy, I do just

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<v Speaker 2>want to highlight that, of course, there are factors, including infertility,

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<v Speaker 2>that can prevent people very clearly from starting families, and

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<v Speaker 2>that's really really significant. But for the sake of this discussion,

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<v Speaker 2>the UN is broadly looking at the fertility rate and

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<v Speaker 2>it's trying to understand if it's because people want less

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<v Speaker 2>children or because they feel like they have to have

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<v Speaker 2>less children, and essentially the report finds the latter, it's

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<v Speaker 2>that they feel like they have to have less children.

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<v Speaker 2>The UN Population Fund director said, it's often assumed or

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<v Speaker 2>implied that fertility rates are the results of free choice. Fortunately,

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<v Speaker 2>that is not the whole picture.

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<v Speaker 3>That is so interesting and relatable.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think it is, and I mean I feel

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<v Speaker 2>like people anecdotally probably know this to be the case.

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<v Speaker 2>But this is the first kind of report that has

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<v Speaker 2>told us, or at least has the data to support

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<v Speaker 2>the fact that it's not that. Broadly, across the board,

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<v Speaker 2>young people are saying no, we're not interested in having children.

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<v Speaker 2>And it was really interesting. The report compiled a bunch

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<v Speaker 2>of headlines from across the globe that said like young

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<v Speaker 2>feminist women no longer want children, or they've gone a

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<v Speaker 2>different path than all these headlines, and it was like, no,

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<v Speaker 2>this isn't actually the issue that when you ask people

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<v Speaker 2>is what's coming back. It's that there are these conditions

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<v Speaker 2>that are not allowing them to realize what it is

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<v Speaker 2>they might actually want.

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<v Speaker 3>Wow.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I have so many more questions, but just quickly,

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<v Speaker 1>here is a message from our spots up Zara, you

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<v Speaker 1>mentioned that there were some other reasons why women and

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<v Speaker 1>couples are choosing to not have more children.

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<v Speaker 3>What are those other reasons.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll go first through the economic reasons, because those make

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<v Speaker 2>up kind of the first three main reasons, the first

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<v Speaker 2>being that thirty nine percent of respondents said that financial

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<v Speaker 2>limitation had affected or would affect their ability to achieve

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<v Speaker 2>their desired family size. Twenty one percent said that it

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<v Speaker 2>was about job insecurity, nineteen percent said it was about housing.

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<v Speaker 2>So clearly that economic context that people find themselves in

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<v Speaker 2>is playing a really, really big role. Another interesting stat

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<v Speaker 2>from the report, and it's certainly something I feel like

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<v Speaker 2>comes up in a lot of conversations I'm a part

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<v Speaker 2>of or I'm listening to, is that one in five

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<v Speaker 2>people said fears about the future, including things like climate change, wars,

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<v Speaker 2>and pandemics, would lead them or has led them to

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<v Speaker 2>having fewer children than desired. Interestingly, only twelve percent of

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<v Speaker 2>people cited infertility or difficulty conceiving for not having the

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<v Speaker 2>number of children that they wanted, and I was quite

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<v Speaker 2>surprised by that number, to be honest, it was much

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<v Speaker 2>lower than I thought it would be. And of course,

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<v Speaker 2>this is just one report. This hasn't spoken to every

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<v Speaker 2>woman everywhere, but I just thought that that was interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, often when I think about infertility, I think that

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<v Speaker 1>in the past ten years or so, we have come

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<v Speaker 1>leaps and bounds when it comes to having really open

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<v Speaker 1>discussions about the issues surrounding infertility and how it can

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<v Speaker 1>feel to be a woman going through that.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>But I guess maybe it's not the case that more

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<v Speaker 1>women are experiencing infertility, but it's the case that more

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<v Speaker 1>women are talking about it.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. And what the report actually highlighted was that one

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<v Speaker 2>of the big areas of concern is the inaccessibility of

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<v Speaker 2>these fertility services or the assistance that they can provide.

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<v Speaker 2>That while there are many in the world that can

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<v Speaker 2>access them, for so many they are still inaccessible and

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<v Speaker 2>that's one of the things that they think need to

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<v Speaker 2>change for more people to have the family or the

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<v Speaker 2>size of the family that they want.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so we know there's a declining fertility rate. We

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<v Speaker 1>know that's a problem, and we know why it's happening.

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<v Speaker 1>Did the un have any ideas about how to solve

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<v Speaker 1>this issue?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the report was basically saying that attempts that governments

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<v Speaker 2>are making around the world, things like a baby bonus

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<v Speaker 2>or an incentive to have a baby isn't actually getting

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<v Speaker 2>to the root cause of the issue, and that they

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<v Speaker 2>don't believe that that's actually going to move the dial

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<v Speaker 2>at all. I want to focus in on one example

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<v Speaker 2>of these sorts of incentives that we've actually spoken about

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<v Speaker 2>on this podcast before, but it's a local version, so

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's quite interesting, and that was the idea

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<v Speaker 2>put forward by Matt Canavan. He's a National Senator. His

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<v Speaker 2>recommendation was to give couples and one hundred thousand dollars

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<v Speaker 2>loan for their first home when they have their first child,

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<v Speaker 2>and then if they have three children that the loan

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<v Speaker 2>would be wiped And while shockingly the UN didn't specifically

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<v Speaker 2>address Man Canavan, I don't think his own party has

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<v Speaker 2>addressed that proposal. However, broadly, the UN did talk about

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<v Speaker 2>this this movement of you know, we've seen it in Hungary,

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<v Speaker 2>we've seen it in other countries, of offering specific incentives,

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<v Speaker 2>especially to women to have more children. What it was

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<v Speaker 2>saying was investing in structural changes is the only thing

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<v Speaker 2>that is going to shift the dial. And when I

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<v Speaker 2>say structural changes, we're talking about things like paid parental leave,

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<v Speaker 2>the accessibility of child's care, addressing housing issues, and ensuring

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<v Speaker 2>access to reproductive health services. They're saying, if you offer

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<v Speaker 2>those bonuses, that's not going to do anything. Do all

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<v Speaker 2>of these things and maybe then we'll see the fertility

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<v Speaker 2>rate rise again in the opposite way that it's been

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<v Speaker 2>going for decades.

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<v Speaker 1>So they're saying, you can't fix this long term issue

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<v Speaker 1>with short term solutions exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>And again I feel like, you know, even if I

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<v Speaker 2>look at our comment section anytime we report on these

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<v Speaker 2>sorts of bonuses or incentives, like everyone in our comment

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<v Speaker 2>section is saying the same thing. That know, this wouldn't

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<v Speaker 2>be enough to actually shift the dial. But I think

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<v Speaker 2>having the un come out and have surveyed so many

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<v Speaker 2>people across the world and to have come to this conclusion,

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<v Speaker 2>it'll be interesting to see if any governments pick up

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<v Speaker 2>on it. You know, of course, here in Australia there

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<v Speaker 2>have been a lot of pieces of legislation when it

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<v Speaker 2>comes to paper rental leave and childcare, but perhaps not

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<v Speaker 2>this like suite of reforms aimed at raising the fertility rate.

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<v Speaker 2>It can be a bit of a hot topic and

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<v Speaker 2>people feel very strongly when they hear, especially male politicians

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<v Speaker 2>talking about it, so definitely an interesting one to see

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<v Speaker 2>if governments take up this kind of call to action.

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<v Speaker 3>Zara, thank you for taking us through that.

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<v Speaker 1>It was one hundred and sixty page report, so we

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<v Speaker 1>very much appreciate you reading every single word and then

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<v Speaker 1>summarizing it for us here. And thank you so much

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<v Speaker 1>for listening to this episode of The Daily os. We'll

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<v Speaker 1>be back again this afternoon with your evening headlines, but

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<v Speaker 1>until then, have a great day.

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<v Speaker 3>My name is Lily Madden and I'm a proud Arunda

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<v Speaker 3>bunge Lung Chalcotin woman from Gadigal Country. The Daily oz

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<v Speaker 3>acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on the lands of

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<v Speaker 3>the Gadigal people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and

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<v Speaker 3>Torrestrate island and nations. We pay our respects to the

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<v Speaker 3>first peoples of these countries, both past and present.