Speaker 1: Already and this is the Daily This is.
Speaker 2: The dalyi os oh, now it makes sense. Good morning
Speaker 2: and welcome to the Daily ODS. It's one day, the
Speaker 2: first of December. I'm Lucy Tassel.
Speaker 1: I'm Zara Seidler.
Speaker 2: It's been more than two and a half years since
Speaker 2: war broke out in Sadan between rival militias. Since then,
Speaker 2: twelve million people have fled their homes, thousands have been killed,
Speaker 2: and international authorities have made accusations of war crimes and genocide.
Speaker 2: Last week, one side said it had implemented a humanitarian truce,
Speaker 2: while the other rejected a US and United Arab Emirates
Speaker 2: led to ceasefire proposal. In today's episode, we explained the
Speaker 2: progress of ceasefy negotiations and why one side of this
Speaker 2: war is against the proposal.
Speaker 1: Lucy, there is a lot to explain about this conflict,
Speaker 1: and you've just mentioned at the top there that we're
Speaker 1: talking about a possible cease fire. To understand that latest development, though,
Speaker 1: we do need to understand the context of this conflict
Speaker 1: that has been going on for years now. Can you
Speaker 1: start at the beginning For our listeners, where did this begin?
Speaker 2: For those who haven't been following or maybe just need
Speaker 2: a refresher. Sudan has been engulfed in violent conflict since
Speaker 2: April twenty twenty three. That's when a fragile partnership between
Speaker 2: the leaders of two different militias fell apart. There are
Speaker 2: two main initialisms you need to know here. There's the
Speaker 2: SAF and the RSF.
Speaker 1: What did those stand for?
Speaker 2: The RSF stands for Rapid Support Forces. That's a paramilitary
Speaker 2: group formed from previous paramilitaries active in a western region
Speaker 2: of Sudan called Dafur. The RSF was established by the
Speaker 2: former leader of Sudan, Omar al Bashir, and he is
Speaker 2: actually wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes
Speaker 2: and genocide in Darfur in the two thousands. The other
Speaker 2: one we need to know is the SAF. That's the
Speaker 2: Sudanese Armed Forces and that is the official army of Sudan.
Speaker 2: In twenty nineteen, the SAF and the RSF teamed up
Speaker 2: to overthrow Albasha. Democratic elections were supposed to follow, but
Speaker 2: they didn't because the SAF and the RSF overthrew the
Speaker 2: existing government and took power completely in twenty twenty one,
Speaker 2: so they were back to back coups. In April twenty
Speaker 2: twenty three, that partnership fell apart, as I've said, resulting
Speaker 2: in the ongoing violent conflict between these two groups as
Speaker 2: we speak. As of right now, the RSF controls the southwest.
Speaker 2: Remember I said they had come from those militias in
Speaker 2: the west, and the SAF controls the southeast. That's also
Speaker 2: where Sudan's capital, Khartoum is.
Speaker 1: Okay, So we've got these two groups who control different
Speaker 1: areas of the country. They've been at war for over
Speaker 1: two years now. What's been the human costs? We're talking
Speaker 1: about a war and a very large country that's been
Speaker 1: at war for so long. What do we understand about
Speaker 1: what this has been like for the Sudanese people.
Speaker 2: The term used is humanitarian crisis. It almost kind of
Speaker 2: doesn't feel big enough to encompass what's been happening. The
Speaker 2: UN has not provided a death toll, though estimates put
Speaker 2: the toll as high as one hundred and fifty thousand,
Speaker 2: but it's quite difficult to know.
Speaker 1: Can I just jump in here, Lucy, because off Mike,
Speaker 1: I was asking you about why it is that the
Speaker 1: UN can't give us a death toll, because we've seen
Speaker 1: in other conflicts that the UN has been able to.
Speaker 1: Can you just run our listeners through what you explain
Speaker 1: to me here?
Speaker 2: My analysis suggests that there isn't the same level of
Speaker 2: infrastructure in Sudan that would allow the UN or other
Speaker 2: bodies to understand the scale. Reports that I've read are
Speaker 2: looking at things like aerial satellite footage to determine it's
Speaker 2: quite grim, but like to determine bodies on the ground
Speaker 2: to determine how many people have been killed by say
Speaker 2: the RSF in the city of El Fashia. So there's
Speaker 2: not the same level of infrastructure that we might see
Speaker 2: in other wars where we would know, like there's a
Speaker 2: group on the ground that is in contact with all
Speaker 2: the hospitals and it's keeping tabs on the death toll.
Speaker 2: As far as I can tell, that is not happening
Speaker 2: in Sudan, and things are at a very extreme point.
Speaker 2: Things were not necessarily great before this started and have deteriorated.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so what do we understand about the death toll?
Speaker 1: What it's estimated to be then?
Speaker 2: Yeah, So one estimate I read was one hundred and
Speaker 2: fifty thousand, but it's really quite difficult to know. There
Speaker 2: were some estimates from the end of last year around
Speaker 2: sixty thousand, but again it's really yeah unknown currently numbers
Speaker 2: we do know twenty one point two million people. That's
Speaker 2: the number experiencing a cute food insecurity and famine has
Speaker 2: also been declared in two cities. In July twenty twenty five,
Speaker 2: the Migration Policy Institute found the violence had forced at
Speaker 2: least twelve million people from their homes. Some of the
Speaker 2: people who fled the country had originally come to Sudan
Speaker 2: as refugees themselves and have since had to find a
Speaker 2: third place to go or even gone back to their homes.
Speaker 2: That's again according to the Migration Policy Institute.
Speaker 1: So while there is a lot that we don't know,
Speaker 1: what has become clear is that there is a humanitarian
Speaker 1: crisis unfolding in Sudan. One of the things that I've
Speaker 1: read reported quite a bit is accusations of genocide and
Speaker 1: also of ethnic cleansing. What can you tell me about Firstly,
Speaker 1: who's leveling those accusations and secondly, I guess what are they?
Speaker 2: These accusations are coming both from groups within Sudan and
Speaker 2: they're also coming from international observers, and mainly these accusations
Speaker 2: have been leveled at the rsf Okay, So to just
Speaker 2: explain for the audience, genocide and ethnic cleansing are similar crimes,
Speaker 2: but they have different definitions. Genocide under international law is
Speaker 2: defined as killing members of a national, ethnic, racial, or
Speaker 2: religious group or making their survival impossible, and then UN
Speaker 2: experts have said ethnic cleansing is removing members of an
Speaker 2: ethnic or religious group from an area by quote violent
Speaker 2: or terror inspiring means. In terms of ramifications for these allegations,
Speaker 2: International Criminal courte Deputy Prosecutor Nazat Shamin Khan said her
Speaker 2: team earlier this year, she said, is actively gathering evidence
Speaker 2: of war crimes in Sudan. In comments to the UN
Speaker 2: Security Council in July, she said the humanitarian situation in
Speaker 2: Sudan had reached quote an intolerable state. She added, quote hospitals,
Speaker 2: humanitarian convoys and other billion objects are apparently being targeted.
Speaker 2: Famine is escalating and humanitarian aid is not reaching those
Speaker 2: in dire need of it. Rape and sexual violence are
Speaker 2: being weaponized.
Speaker 1: Lucy, you said there that she is gathering evidence, Does
Speaker 1: that mean then that they will seek they being the ICC,
Speaker 1: will seek to take people to trial because we know
Speaker 1: the ICC is about people whereas the ICJ is about states.
Speaker 1: So are we looking at people then being taken to trial?
Speaker 2: Yes, eventually, though I will note that, as I said earlier,
Speaker 2: the ICC still can't hold a trial for previous dictator
Speaker 2: Omar Albasher over crimes dating back to two thousand and
Speaker 2: two because they don't try people in absentia. That is,
Speaker 2: they don't try people who aren't physically present and international
Speaker 2: trials as we've explained before, and this podcast can take
Speaker 2: a really any time yep to come to fruition.
Speaker 1: So we run through what the latest is on the
Speaker 1: ground in Sudan. The context behind this current conflict is
Speaker 1: you did start by mentioning a ceasefire though, so can
Speaker 1: we just go back to that now? What is the
Speaker 1: state of play with a ceasefire?
Speaker 2: Back in September, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the US, and the
Speaker 2: United Arab Emirates all proposed a ceasefire plan for Sudan.
Speaker 2: We don't have exact details, but the group did release
Speaker 2: a statement outlining some of their ideas, including starting with
Speaker 2: a three month truce to allow quote the swift entry
Speaker 2: of humanitarian aid that would then be followed by a
Speaker 2: permanent ceasefire The statement said, Sudan's future government is quote
Speaker 2: for the Sudanese people to decide, not controlled by any
Speaker 2: warring party, So that would be the SAF and the RSF.
Speaker 2: That's one point that has been contentious for the SAF
Speaker 2: who said this plan would quote eliminate them and keep
Speaker 2: the RSF quote in its positions. In terms of Sudan's government,
Speaker 2: currently it's being run by the SAF, as I said before,
Speaker 2: they are technically the official army, while the RSF is
Speaker 2: in the process of setting up a rival government.
Speaker 1: Right, So, I mean, how would that work to have
Speaker 1: an existing government a rival government. There has been this
Speaker 1: power struggle that has been so violent for so many years.
Speaker 1: How would that even work.
Speaker 2: There's a couple of examples we can point to in
Speaker 2: the world. I mean, hypothetically, we could have an East
Speaker 2: Germany West Germany situation where there's two the country splits
Speaker 2: in two, and S'dan has already split into Sudan and
Speaker 2: South Sudan. But there's also a different example, literally right
Speaker 2: next door to Sudan on its northwestern border, and that's Libya.
Speaker 2: So since twenty fourteen, there have been two governments in Libya,
Speaker 2: two parallel governments, one in the east and one in
Speaker 2: the west. That also is a situation that arose out
Speaker 2: of a war, a civil war. Only the government in
Speaker 2: the West, based in the city of Tripoli, is recognized
Speaker 2: by international governments, so places like Australia, I means other
Speaker 2: countries only do business and only engage in diplomatic talks
Speaker 2: with the Tripoli government, which is backed by the UN.
Speaker 2: And you've asked how it would work, not particularly well.
Speaker 2: I would say there have been many attempts at reconciling
Speaker 2: the two sides, none of them have yet been successful,
Speaker 2: and the fact that other countries don't recognize the Eastern
Speaker 2: government limits what it's able to do. That could happen
Speaker 2: in Sudan assuming neither side can agree on the ceasefire proposal,
Speaker 2: which has some other points of contention too, And I
Speaker 2: would say the main one relates to the United Arab
Speaker 2: Emirates or the UAE.
Speaker 1: I'm glad you brought that up because I have been
Speaker 1: wanting to ask you because it does feel like I mean,
Speaker 1: certainly when we've uploaded posts in the past, there have
Speaker 1: been a lot of comments about the UAE and the
Speaker 1: role of the UAE. Why is the UAE so controversial
Speaker 1: when it comes to this conflict in particular.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and people are right to point this out. The
Speaker 2: UAE has been accused by many places, particularly the SAF
Speaker 2: of supplying weapons to the RSF. It has denied these allegations,
Speaker 2: but I will say international observers have documented the movement
Speaker 2: of weapons on planes from the UAE to an airport
Speaker 2: in the country of Chad which is near the border
Speaker 2: with Sudan, to the RSF to their training camps. And
Speaker 2: that includes weapons from Europe that have somehow come through
Speaker 2: the UAE.
Speaker 1: And just to jump in here, So it's the RSF
Speaker 1: who have had genocide allegations leveled at them, and there
Speaker 1: have been international observers who have documented the movement of
Speaker 1: weapons to that group. Yeah, yeah, Okay.
Speaker 2: Back in March, Sudan sued the UAE in the International
Speaker 2: Court of Justice, the ICJ. So, as you said, different
Speaker 2: to the icc alleging it provided quote unlimited support to
Speaker 2: the RSF, enabling the group to perpetrate quote genocide, forcible
Speaker 2: displacement and murder.
Speaker 1: What happened in that ICJ case, So.
Speaker 2: The ICJ actually throughout Sudan's case, saying that while it
Speaker 2: was quote deeply concerned by the conflict, it didn't actually
Speaker 2: have the power to hear the case, which was a
Speaker 2: very interesting nuance of international law here. So the UAE
Speaker 2: and Sudan are both signatories. They're both agreed to be
Speaker 2: bound by the United Nations Genocide Convention. This is a
Speaker 2: legal text that obliges countries to prevent genocide and to
Speaker 2: punish those who carry it out, including within their own countries.
Speaker 2: One section of this legal document states that countries can
Speaker 2: take disputes quote, including those relating to the responsibility of
Speaker 2: a country for genocide, to the ICJ, basically saying we
Speaker 2: accuse you of committing genocide. We're taking this to the
Speaker 2: World Court.
Speaker 1: And we've seen that in previous cases. South Africa took
Speaker 1: Israel to the ICJ over this exact claim.
Speaker 2: Yea, and that case is ongoing. But this case couldn't
Speaker 2: go ahead because the UAE is not party to that
Speaker 2: specific section of this legal document.
Speaker 1: They've got a carve out.
Speaker 2: They yeah, they got a carve out of just this
Speaker 2: specific section, which meant the ICJ basically had to say,
Speaker 2: while we agree that there's something very concerning going on here,
Speaker 2: we literally don't have jurisdiction, which for me, raises the question.
Speaker 1: Who does yeah, fascinating.
Speaker 2: So the Sudanese government, however, which as I said, is
Speaker 2: controlled by the saf is still making these allegations. The
Speaker 2: International Observer's observations still stand, and that means that it
Speaker 2: is not accepting the saf UA led ceasefire, because I said,
Speaker 2: that's one of the countries involved in this ceasefire proposal. Meanwhile,
Speaker 2: last week the RSF that's the other group, said it
Speaker 2: would activate a three month humanitarian truce, but US negotiators
Speaker 2: said it hadn't actually formally accepted the deal, and there
Speaker 2: have been reports of ongoing violence regardless of this kind
Speaker 2: of stated truce. So for now seems like things are
Speaker 2: at an impasse as they have been already.
Speaker 1: Okay, so no one has formally accepted that truce deal
Speaker 1: that's been put on the table. As you've just said,
Speaker 1: there is ongoing violence, and so whether or not that
Speaker 1: is accepted, given that there are such huge reservations about
Speaker 1: both the involvement of the UAE and also some of
Speaker 1: the details in the plan, certainly one to keep an
Speaker 1: eye on to see if it does get through. Definitely, Lucy,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for explaining this today. Thanks Sarah,
Speaker 1: and thank you for joining us for another episode of
Speaker 1: The Daily Os. We'll be back as normal this afternoon
Speaker 1: with the headlines, but until then, have a great day.
Speaker 2: My name is Lily Madden and I'm a proud Arunda
Speaker 2: Bungelung Caalcuttin woman from Gadighl Country. The Daily Os acknowledges
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