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Speaker 1: Good morning everybody, and welcome to Thursday. Today is the

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Speaker 1: third of February and you are joined by Sam and

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Speaker 1: Zara from the Daily Ours. Thanks for tuning in to

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Speaker 1: another day of news. Sam, what is making headlines?

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Speaker 2: So?

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Speaker 3: I'm going to have a chat to our economic journalist

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Speaker 3: Tom Crowley about wages, why our wages aren't growing as

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Speaker 3: fast as the cost of our supermarket basket. But before

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Speaker 3: we get to that, I'll run you through some of

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Speaker 3: the headlines of the day. First up, the federal government

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Speaker 3: has announced it will spend over sixty million dollars to

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Speaker 3: counter violent extremism. The funding will target several key measures,

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Speaker 3: including intervention programs, a national program to rehabilitate violent extremists

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Speaker 3: in custody, as well as research, risk assessment and training.

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Speaker 1: Moving now to climate news, and scientists from a range

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Speaker 1: of universities have conducted research that found most coral reefs

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Speaker 1: worldwide will suffer from bleaching once global warming reaches one

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Speaker 1: point five degrees celsius. Specifically, the research found only zero

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Speaker 1: point two percent of reefs will not face at least

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Speaker 1: one bleaching outbreak every decade.

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Speaker 3: Tonga has entered a two day snap lockdown after a

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Speaker 3: reported to COVID nineteen cases. Both cases were detected at

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Speaker 3: a ports where humanitarian aid is arriving to assist the

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Speaker 3: nation after an underwater volcanic eruption and tsunami. Under the lockdown,

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Speaker 3: residents are advised to remain at home and schools will

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Speaker 3: be closed.

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Speaker 1: Today's good news it is Olympics time once again. The

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Speaker 1: Torch Relay for the Winter Olympics has begun in Beijing,

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Speaker 1: where the Winter Olympics will be hosted this year. Over

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Speaker 1: one thousand torch bearers will carry the flame across the city.

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Speaker 1: The Torch's journey to Beijing began in October last year

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Speaker 1: and the opening ceremony will take place this Friday.

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Speaker 4: It also comes at a time when aggrit wage growth

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Speaker 4: in Australia remains low. The border of the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 4: is prepared to be patient as it monitors the evolution

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Speaker 4: of these various fas as that are affecting inflation in Australia.

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Speaker 3: Joining US is journalists at the Daily OS and also

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Speaker 3: an economist in a past life, Tom Crowley. Tom, Welcome

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Speaker 3: to the podcast. This is going to be a big

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Speaker 3: explainer for everyone. Tell me real wages haven't grown in

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Speaker 3: a decade. Is that as bad as it sounds. Yeah, Look,

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Speaker 3: it is as bad as it sounds. I think sometimes

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Speaker 3: economics can be a bit abstract, you know, when we

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Speaker 3: talk about GDP or inflation, I guess it's not always

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Speaker 3: obvious how those things affect our lives. But when it

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Speaker 3: comes to wages, it's pretty obvious, and I think it's

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Speaker 3: going to be very tangible for many people. The wages

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Speaker 3: have not grown materially for a very long time. So

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Speaker 3: when we talk about wages, we use the term real wages,

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Speaker 3: which is basically how fast is your wage going up

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Speaker 3: compared to the price of the things that you want

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Speaker 3: to buy. We make that comparison because it tells us

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Speaker 3: about our standard of living. So if real wages aren't growing,

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Speaker 3: it means that the money that we're getting paid is

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Speaker 3: not keeping up with the price of groceries or housing

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Speaker 3: or whatever, and material living standards in that case of

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Speaker 3: going backwards. And that is exactly what has happened in

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Speaker 3: the last decade. So real wages, real living standards have

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Speaker 3: gone backwards basically since the GFC. And the reason that

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Speaker 3: we've decided to talk about this today is because the

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Speaker 3: Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia has said that

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Speaker 3: he's concerned about it. It's not the first time he

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Speaker 3: said that, and it's not the first time, but it's

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Speaker 3: been said. But I think it's going to be the

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Speaker 3: topic of a lot of discussion this year, especially as

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Speaker 3: we head towards an election. So we thought it was

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Speaker 3: a good chance to kind of take a few steps

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Speaker 3: back and explain, you know, what's going on with wages,

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Speaker 3: what's at the root of this problem, and just to

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Speaker 3: kind of make sure that I'm fully getting my head

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Speaker 3: around it. When you're talking about real wages, you're basically

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Speaker 3: talking about whether the price of a standard basket at

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Speaker 3: a supermarket is increasing at the same rate as my

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Speaker 3: wage so that I can afford to live the same

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Speaker 3: life I was living before, even when the price of

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Speaker 3: goods and services go up. Does that sound kind of

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Speaker 3: about right?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 1: So.

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Speaker 2: I mean, one like super simple way of putting it

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Speaker 2: right is if you get paid one hundred dollars and

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Speaker 2: your groceries cost one hundred dollars, then obviously you're scraping by,

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Speaker 2: but that's kind of where you're at. And then in

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Speaker 2: a year's time your pay goes up five dollars and

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Speaker 2: your groceries. The cost of your groceries goes up ten dollars.

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Speaker 2: Technically your wage is gone up by those five dollars,

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Speaker 2: but in the real sense it hasn't because you can't

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Speaker 2: buy the same things that you are used to buying.

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Speaker 3: You can't buy those groceries.

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Speaker 2: So that's why we kind of measure both, you know,

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Speaker 2: in terms of inflation, while we get that measure of

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Speaker 2: real wages.

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Speaker 3: So that term real wages is going to be an

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Speaker 3: important one to remember. But what conditions do we need

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Speaker 3: for wages to grow?

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Speaker 2: I guess the simplest answer of what makes wages grow,

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Speaker 2: and maybe it's kind of a politician's answer, is a

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Speaker 2: strong economy. But I think we can do a little

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Speaker 2: bit better than that. So I want to talk about

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Speaker 2: three things, three things that we need to understand and

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Speaker 2: look at to measure our material well being. So there's employment, wages,

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Speaker 2: and inflation. So employment obviously tells us how many people

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Speaker 2: have work. Wages tell us what do they get paid

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Speaker 2: for that work? And inflation, as we're talking about it

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Speaker 2: just means how much to things cost, and economists have

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Speaker 2: theories for how those things relate to each other. And

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Speaker 2: so I'll talk you through a very simplified version of

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Speaker 2: the theory just for the sort of sake of understanding.

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Speaker 2: The idea is, when the economy is struggling, people lose jobs,

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Speaker 2: unemployment is high, wages in that circumstance are going to

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Speaker 2: be low because workers are competing for jobs. There aren't

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Speaker 2: that many jobs around, so the wages are going to

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Speaker 2: be pretty low. On the other hand, when the economy

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Speaker 2: is strong and unemployment is low, that flips around all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden. Businesses are competing for workers because there

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Speaker 2: aren't that many unemployed people, and so wages in that

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Speaker 2: circumstance should rise. So the idea is economy is struggling,

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Speaker 2: wages struggling. Economy is strong, wages should be strong. And

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Speaker 2: that's true with prices as well. That's sort of moving

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Speaker 2: on into the background. So when the economy is weak,

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Speaker 2: people aren't spending as much and prices don't go anywhere.

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Speaker 2: But prices inflation rise when the economy is strong. But

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Speaker 2: that's not a problem really as long as wages are

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Speaker 2: keeping up growing faster. So so the idea is supposed

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Speaker 2: to be pretty simple. If the economy is struggling, we

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Speaker 2: stimulate it until things are up and running again. Unemployment

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Speaker 2: gets low, wages grow, if they keep the head of inflation,

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Speaker 2: then everything should be coming along nicely.

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Speaker 3: So when you're talking us through those couple of scenarios,

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Speaker 3: I'm hearing you kind of say different things should happen.

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Speaker 3: A should equal be what's going wrong? Yes, So should

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Speaker 3: is the key word there. And maybe I'll stop talking

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Speaker 3: about theory. Let's start talking about the real world because

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Speaker 3: the reality in the last decade has been quite different

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Speaker 3: to that neat picture. So I'll start in two thousand

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Speaker 3: and eight, where we had the global financial crisis. After

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Speaker 3: that crisis, the economy rebounded in Australia and people got

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Speaker 3: back into jobs, but wages didn't start growing again. And

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Speaker 3: this was kind of unexpected.

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Speaker 2: So that neat theory that I've talked you through, where

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Speaker 2: the idea is, you know, people get back into jobs

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Speaker 2: and the wages start growing, it just didn't happen. There's

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Speaker 2: a lot of debate and research into why it didn't happen.

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Speaker 2: This week I spoke to an expert, my old economics professor,

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Speaker 2: Jeff Borland, and he said, basically, we just didn't push

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Speaker 2: down unemployment far enough that essentially the job of the

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Speaker 2: recovery after the GFC, we just stopped before it was done.

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Speaker 2: So he pulled away the supports too quickly, and we

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Speaker 2: didn't push unemployment down to the level where it might

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Speaker 2: get wages growing again, and that that was basically the problem,

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Speaker 2: and it was a problem that carried on for years

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Speaker 2: and years after the GFC. So essentially, even though things

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Speaker 2: were sort of back to normal, we weren't in a

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Speaker 2: recession anymore, the recovery was incomplete, and that that's kind

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Speaker 2: of the main reason that wages haven't grown, And that

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Speaker 2: takes us right.

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Speaker 3: Up to COVID.

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Speaker 2: That was a story right up to COVID, when, of

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Speaker 2: course there's another recession and people lose their jobs again

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Speaker 2: and the cycle starts itself again. One of the things

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Speaker 2: that Jeff Borland warned is that now we're coming out

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Speaker 2: of another recession, it's really important that we don't make

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Speaker 2: the same mistake again. So he says that last time

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Speaker 2: we didn't finish the job. We didn't push unemployment down

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Speaker 2: as far as it can go. Oh, we're at the

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Speaker 2: risk of doing the same thing this time. Unemployment's fallen

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Speaker 2: a lot after the pandemic. Now that we're all getting

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Speaker 2: back out and about and that's great, but we haven't

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Speaker 2: seen wages growth yet. So Jeff Ballin says, we've got

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Speaker 2: to stay the course, keep going with the stimulus and

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Speaker 2: the economic supports, and only when we see wages starting

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Speaker 2: to grow again, where we have the sign that the

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Speaker 2: recovery is complete and that we've done enough. So I

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Speaker 2: think I'm keeping track of everything you're saying and understanding

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Speaker 2: that link between wage growth and a general healthy economy.

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Speaker 2: What are the steps we need to take to get

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Speaker 2: wages growing again though in the short term, The answer,

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Speaker 2: I guess, as I'm talking about there, is keep pushing

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Speaker 2: unemployment down. That's what a lot of experts are saying

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Speaker 2: at the moment is kind of keep pushing unemployment down, down, down, down,

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Speaker 2: until you get wages starting to grow in the short term.

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Speaker 2: And that's pretty much what we're expecting the RBA to do.

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Speaker 2: They've said that they're going to be patient, and they've

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Speaker 2: said that they want wages to grow. That's basically what

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Speaker 2: that means. Keep the stimulus job going until wages start

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Speaker 2: to grow again. But there are some other things. I mean,

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Speaker 2: there are some things that governments can do as well.

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Speaker 2: So Governments, of course, are responsible for setting the wages

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Speaker 2: of public servants. That's a lot of people. They can

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Speaker 2: lead the way in that sense. They govern the rules

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Speaker 2: around industrial relations and the setting of minimum wages and

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Speaker 2: bargaining practices, So there are changes that could be made there.

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Speaker 2: And the big thing is that they can try to

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Speaker 2: increase productivity. Now we've already bitten off enough economics, so

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to try and explain productivity in all

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Speaker 2: its detail. That'll be won for another day. But basically

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Speaker 2: it kind of means unlocking more economic potential. There are

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Speaker 2: things that governments can do to kind of kickstart economic growth, which,

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Speaker 2: if it's done in the right way, can help to

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Speaker 2: grow wages. So there are lots of answers, or at

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Speaker 2: least there are lots of ideas. And as I say,

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Speaker 2: I think this is going to be a very big

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Speaker 2: election debate. We're going to hear people talking about wages.

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Speaker 2: Why aren't wages growing? There might even be a little

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Speaker 2: bit of blame thrown around about that. It's a very

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Speaker 2: very complicated issue. There's a lot of moving parts. But

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Speaker 2: hopefully this has given you a little bit of a

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Speaker 2: kind of a frame of reference for why we're having

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Speaker 2: this debate what has gone wrong and maybe even some

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Speaker 2: ideas what we can do to fix it.

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Speaker 3: Tom Crowley, I feel like this is one that as

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Speaker 3: an audience and as journalists ourselves, we just need to

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Speaker 3: stick with this discussion and we need to push through

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Speaker 3: the kind of unfamiliarity we all feel when talking about

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Speaker 3: these sort of economic ideas and try and get our

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Speaker 3: heads around it, because at the end of the day,

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Speaker 3: if we have a job, we're receiving a paycheck and

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Speaker 3: it's really important to understand how that paycheck relates to

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Speaker 3: the economy and the world around us. So thank you,

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Speaker 3: thank you for unpacking that, and I have a funny

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Speaker 3: feeling I'll have a few more questions for you before

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Speaker 3: the election.

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Speaker 2: I look forward to answering them. Thanks Sam.

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Speaker 3: That's all we've got time for on today's edition of

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Speaker 3: The Daily ODS Happy Thursday. If you want to catch

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Speaker 3: up with the news throughout the day and have some

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Speaker 3: more questions for our in house economist, follow us on

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Speaker 3: The Daily OS over on Instagram, and as always, rate

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Speaker 3: and review this podcast. It really helps us as independent

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Speaker 3: publishers