WEBVTT - Why is the Aussie dollar plunging?

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<v Speaker 1>Already and this is the daily This is the Daily

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<v Speaker 1>ohs oh, now it makes sense.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Wednesday,

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<v Speaker 2>the eighth of January. I'm Sam. The Australian dollar has

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<v Speaker 2>hit a five year low of sixty one point eighty

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<v Speaker 2>four US since this week. It's a level last scene

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<v Speaker 2>during the early stages of the COVID pandemic. With Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's move into the White House and the potential four

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<v Speaker 2>harsh tariffs on Australia's major trading partner China only a

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<v Speaker 2>few weeks away, the currency plunge has sparked years amongst

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<v Speaker 2>Australian commentators, some politicians and financial experts. But what does

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<v Speaker 2>a dropped Ossie dollar actually mean for us? Not just

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<v Speaker 2>when we're planning a trip overseas, but in day to

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<v Speaker 2>day life. Why is it happening now? Is there real

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<v Speaker 2>reason to panic? To find those answers, I'm joined today

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<v Speaker 2>by the Australian Institution. It's Greg Jericho. Greg, thank you

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<v Speaker 2>so much for joining us. Welcome back to twenty twenty five.

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<v Speaker 2>How's your break?

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<v Speaker 1>It was really good. Lots of sitting on the couch

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<v Speaker 1>watching crickets, so a very nice easy summer.

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<v Speaker 2>Good and the couch is probably where you're going to

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<v Speaker 2>stay because none of us are doing much traveling in

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<v Speaker 2>the year ahead because of this Aussie dollar. And that's

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<v Speaker 2>what I want to talk to you about today. I

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<v Speaker 2>want to read you some headlines, so we've got how

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<v Speaker 2>the falling Aussie dollar could hit you hard. Aussie dollar

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<v Speaker 2>under pressure, Australian dollar weekends to lowest rates since COVID.

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<v Speaker 2>Break this all down for me.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, basically, what this is all about is a bit

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<v Speaker 1>of a kerfuffle, I guess, regarding exchange rates and the

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<v Speaker 1>international economy. And it can get kind of confusing for people,

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<v Speaker 1>especially when you see headlines almost suggesting that we should

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<v Speaker 1>be panicking about the falling Astround dollar and you think, geez,

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<v Speaker 1>do I have to go and buy ken goods again

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<v Speaker 1>and go through the whole COVID crisis all over again.

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<v Speaker 1>And to be honest, I think it's a little bit overblown.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's see if we can sort of work through

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<v Speaker 1>what's actually going on here a bit.

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<v Speaker 2>So break down for me what the top line factors

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<v Speaker 2>are that would make a currency drop like the Asi

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<v Speaker 2>dollar drop over the last couple of months.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean, what you have to think about with

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<v Speaker 1>the Australian dollar is why are people buying or selling it?

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<v Speaker 1>And really the main reason you want to buy Australian

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<v Speaker 1>dollars is because you're buying stuff from Australia, or you

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<v Speaker 1>think the Australian dollar is a good bet because the

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<v Speaker 1>economy is going well and you think that you know

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<v Speaker 1>the value of the currency is going to rise. And

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<v Speaker 1>while that is a primary factor, the reality is, while

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<v Speaker 1>we're a fairly large economy compared to America and China,

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<v Speaker 1>we're quite small and when they start sort of mucking about,

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<v Speaker 1>we get caught up in the wash. And that's really

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<v Speaker 1>what we've seen here because there's a couple of things

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<v Speaker 1>at play. One, China's economy is struggling a bit, and

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<v Speaker 1>so as a result, they're not buying as much stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>or their demand for the stuff that they get from us, mainly,

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<v Speaker 1>iron ore isn't as great as it once was, and

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<v Speaker 1>sort of the Australian dollar is viewed by investors a

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<v Speaker 1>bit of a proxy for the price of iron ore,

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<v Speaker 1>and also how well China is doing, because generally we

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<v Speaker 1>know if China's doing well, Australia does well. So we've

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<v Speaker 1>got that in play. Also, what we've got is America

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<v Speaker 1>actually doing kind of okay, which certainly Carmala Harris and

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Biden have been trying to tell everyone that actually

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<v Speaker 1>the American economy is doing well. That did quite cut

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<v Speaker 1>through during the election. But then you also throw in

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump, and Donald Trump is promising to raise tariffs

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<v Speaker 1>on everything coming into America and especially imports from China.

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<v Speaker 1>And what that means is everyone's thinking, oh God, China's

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<v Speaker 1>already struggling a bit, is this going to hurt China

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<v Speaker 1>even more? And basically we've just been caught up in that.

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<v Speaker 1>It's got very little to do with Australia. It's all

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<v Speaker 1>about China being weak, America kind of attacking China with tariffs,

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<v Speaker 1>and we caught up in the wash.

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<v Speaker 2>Why do you think commentators journalists go to that level

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<v Speaker 2>of panic language with something like this, what are the

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<v Speaker 2>consequences of a week Australian dollar?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's almost a bit perplexing to me. Well, not perplexing,

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<v Speaker 1>given I have worked in media for a long time,

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<v Speaker 1>so I know there's always you know, clicks with a

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<v Speaker 1>headline that is all scary, scared quotes work well, but

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<v Speaker 1>one of the things about an exchange rate is it's

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<v Speaker 1>neither good nor bad. Now, certainly if you're thinking of

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<v Speaker 1>traveling overseas, it's bad because if you think of it

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<v Speaker 1>in dollar terms. Let's think of it.

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<v Speaker 2>You're booking a one hundred dollars a night room at

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<v Speaker 2>a hostel in New York. That one hundred dollars is

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<v Speaker 2>going to cost you more Ausie dollars.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, So basically, I mean the classic when I

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<v Speaker 1>last went over to America a long time ago, in

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<v Speaker 1>the winter of two thousand and one, the Aussie dollar

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<v Speaker 1>was worth fifty US cents. Basically I was paying double.

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<v Speaker 1>If it was one dollar US, that was costing me

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<v Speaker 1>two dollars Australian, so very expensive. So when the Aussie

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<v Speaker 1>dollar falls, as it kind of has, it's gone from

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<v Speaker 1>about sixty five cents to about sixty two US cents,

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<v Speaker 1>that means everything is a bit more expensive. So that's

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<v Speaker 1>not good for people who are thinking of traveling. But

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<v Speaker 1>let's be honest, that's not a big impact on our economy,

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<v Speaker 1>and we don't really care if people were going to travel.

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<v Speaker 1>We'd actually it'd be better for our economy if they

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<v Speaker 1>stayed home and traveled to Queens Stand or wherever where

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<v Speaker 1>it really hurts us. Think of it in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>us buying stuff. So, yes, that accommodation in America is

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<v Speaker 1>now more expensive. But let's say we were instead of

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<v Speaker 1>buying a hotel room in America, we're buying, say a book,

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<v Speaker 1>or we're buying, say an electric good from America. With

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<v Speaker 1>a low or a falling exchange rate, that makes those

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<v Speaker 1>imports more expensive. And where we really get hit by

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<v Speaker 1>this is, of course, when it comes to petrol prices,

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<v Speaker 1>because petrol prices are all imported. Essentially we're importing our

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<v Speaker 1>oil and it's all dependent on the world price of oil,

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<v Speaker 1>and so when our Australian dollar goes gets weaker, all

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<v Speaker 1>other things being equal, we pay more for petrol and

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<v Speaker 1>that of course means our inflation generally goes up a bit.

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<v Speaker 1>So that certainly hurts us and not a good good

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<v Speaker 1>news during a cost of living crisis where we're already

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<v Speaker 1>feeling the pinch. And so that's where the main scare

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<v Speaker 1>is coming from. And you might think, okay, so it's

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<v Speaker 1>all bad news. Well yes and no, because now let's

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<v Speaker 1>flip the whole thing.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, who benefits who benefits from a weak currency.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, let's say you're a company who is exporting to America.

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<v Speaker 1>Suddenly it's actually cheaper to buy stuff from Australia. So

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<v Speaker 1>if you're exporting, you're actually benefiting from that because your

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<v Speaker 1>company's over in America can buy more of your stuff

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<v Speaker 1>for basically the same price, and so it actually helps

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<v Speaker 1>the economy that way. So we get hurt by higher imports,

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<v Speaker 1>we get help by lower prices for our exports. We

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<v Speaker 1>still get paid in Australian dollars, so it's all good

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<v Speaker 1>for us. So it's very much the swings and roundabouts.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, certainly most of the panic is a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit in sort of the Donald Trump joker card

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<v Speaker 1>of not really knowing is he going to follow through

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<v Speaker 1>and slap a sixty percent tariff on on everything coming

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<v Speaker 1>from China. If he does that, that could really wreck

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<v Speaker 1>some havoc and we might see the dollar start going

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<v Speaker 1>below sixty US cents. But as is always the case

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<v Speaker 1>with Donald Trump, who they all knows really what he's

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<v Speaker 1>going to do.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I find it really interesting how in the economy,

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<v Speaker 2>and I've kind of picked this up through a couple

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<v Speaker 2>of conversations with you over the last year or so,

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<v Speaker 2>there tends to be a little bit of speculation being

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<v Speaker 2>built into the prices of stuff, So you know, China's

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<v Speaker 2>currency might be coming down because of the potential of

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump being someone in favor of tariffs. Those actually

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<v Speaker 2>haven't happened yet, but it's almost like they're getting ready

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<v Speaker 2>for that. It's funny how then sometimes it the drop

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<v Speaker 2>when he actually does introduce the tariff might not be

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<v Speaker 2>as big as we think.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, absolutely right, And certainly if he doesn't raise tariffs

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<v Speaker 1>to sixty percent, then it actually we might see the

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<v Speaker 1>dollar go back up because kind of people go, oh,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not as bad as we feared, so it's all good. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>you very much. Right. A lot of the market investors,

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<v Speaker 1>they're all trying to anticipate what's going to happen, because

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<v Speaker 1>that's kind of how you make money. You can't make

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<v Speaker 1>money investing on things that have happened, because everyone's already

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<v Speaker 1>factored that in. And also there's been a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>commentary about interest rates. I'm not as convinced by some

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<v Speaker 1>who are suggesting that this sort of small fall at

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<v Speaker 1>the moment in the Aussie dollar might put off an

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<v Speaker 1>interest rate rise I think that would be a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit silly on behalf the Reserve bank. It's not going

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<v Speaker 1>to have a big impact either way on the value

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<v Speaker 1>of the currency. So if the cost of petrol goes

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<v Speaker 1>up because of our exchange rate, well, raising interest rates

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<v Speaker 1>or keeping interest rates the same isn't going to affect

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<v Speaker 1>that all that much. So there's not much they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to be able to do to affect the impact. When

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<v Speaker 1>we're talking America and China, investors know who's the big

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<v Speaker 1>dogs in that game, and it's certainly not Australia.

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<v Speaker 2>Last question for me, Greg, in this journey that you

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<v Speaker 2>and I are going on building the economic literacy and

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<v Speaker 2>knowledge and understanding how all of this plays into the news,

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<v Speaker 2>what's your advice on how closely we should all be

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<v Speaker 2>paying attention to currencies? Is it something we should be

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<v Speaker 2>checking every week? I mean, is this something that should

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<v Speaker 2>be part of our financial diet.

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<v Speaker 1>I would actually say no, not really. I mean, to

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<v Speaker 1>be honest, I don't check it a lot. And I

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<v Speaker 1>write about this stuff, I mean, and it's always struck

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<v Speaker 1>me as a little bit weird that it is in

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<v Speaker 1>the news every night. We see the value of the

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<v Speaker 1>Aussie dollar and you know, it's important if you are

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<v Speaker 1>traveling going to UK at the moment it is basically

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<v Speaker 1>you're getting half a dollar, you know, and so that

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<v Speaker 1>is I guess important. But if you're not traveling, and

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<v Speaker 1>if you're not an importer and exporter, it's kind of

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<v Speaker 1>not really all that important. It's not going to have

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<v Speaker 1>a major impact unless there is a massive plunge one

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<v Speaker 1>way or the other.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, is massive, like if it gets to fifty

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<v Speaker 2>cents or lower.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and you know, if it plunges like five to

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<v Speaker 1>ten cents in a week, that's where you start thinking,

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<v Speaker 1>oh gosh, there's something wrong afoot and there might have

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<v Speaker 1>to be impacts. Some people might be able to recall

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<v Speaker 1>about a decade or so when we reach parity with

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<v Speaker 1>the US dollar and it was great. Everyone was getting

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<v Speaker 1>on Amazon and buying books and shopping and thinking this

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<v Speaker 1>is fantastic. Meanwhile, this was horrible for Australia's economy because

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<v Speaker 1>our exports, especially manufacturing, really suffered because it was very

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<v Speaker 1>expensive to export straying cars and things like that, and

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<v Speaker 1>it really hurts. So it's always I think a bit

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<v Speaker 1>of a warning not to get too caught up in

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<v Speaker 1>the daily movements and think, oh god, it went up

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<v Speaker 1>you know, zero point two five percent? Is that? Ma,

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<v Speaker 1>Should I get really concerned? I don't think so. I

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<v Speaker 1>think worry more about things like, you know, the unemployment

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<v Speaker 1>rates and just your own sort of cost of living

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<v Speaker 1>and looking at what's happening with petrol prices and interest rates,

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<v Speaker 1>rather than the minutia of exchange rates. Unless there is

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<v Speaker 1>a real sort of weirdness happening, I don't think people

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<v Speaker 1>need to which I'm sure they're not watching the six

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<v Speaker 1>pm news. I don't know I've watched it's the six

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<v Speaker 1>pm news, But certainly there's no need to be looking

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<v Speaker 1>at the currency market fluctuations unless you happen to be

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<v Speaker 1>about to go off for a nice holiday.

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<v Speaker 2>Greg Jericho from the Australian Institute, thank you for getting

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<v Speaker 2>off the couch and pauson the cricket to have a

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<v Speaker 2>chat with me today. Really appreciate you going beyond those

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<v Speaker 2>headlines and talking us through what this all means.

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<v Speaker 1>No, is Sam really good to chat.

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<v Speaker 2>It's always such a pleasure to be joined by such

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<v Speaker 2>a level headed economic commentator. That's all I've got time

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<v Speaker 2>for the Daily OS today, though we'll be back again

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<v Speaker 2>with some headlines in the afternoon. Until then, have a

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<v Speaker 2>fantastic hump Day and we'll speak to you later. My

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<v Speaker 2>name is Lily Madden and I'm a proud Arunda Bunjelung

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<v Speaker 2>Calkaton woman from Gadaghl Country. The Daily oz acknowledges that

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<v Speaker 2>this podcast is recorded on the lands of the Gadigol

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<v Speaker 2>people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and torrest Rate

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<v Speaker 2>island and nations.

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<v Speaker 1>We pay our respects to the first peoples of these countries,

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<v Speaker 1>both past and present.