1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,760 Speaker 1: As I mentioned, we know that domain's latest report on 2 00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:06,520 Speaker 1: house prices has shown another quarter of gains for house 3 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:11,280 Speaker 1: and unit prices, marking the seventh consecutive increase for houses 4 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: and the sixth for units, both reaching a record high. 5 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:19,160 Speaker 1: But the slowdown in house price growth nationally is becoming 6 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,759 Speaker 1: more pronounced, while the slowdown on unit price growth is 7 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 1: more gradual. Darwin and Hobart were the only cities to 8 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: accelerate their quarterly growth but have struggled to enter a 9 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 1: recovery phase like that of other cities. Now joining us 10 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,200 Speaker 1: on the line to break down the findings and well 11 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 1: tell us a little bit more about the information is 12 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:45,239 Speaker 1: domain's chief of Research and Economics, doctor Nicola Powell. Good 13 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: morning to you, Nikola. Let's try that again. Hopefully I'm 14 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 1: able to get her. Can you hear me this morning? Nikola? Oh? 15 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 2: I can there you are connections. 16 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 1: Lovely to have you on the show. Thank you so 17 00:00:57,680 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 1: much for your time. Now, can you talk me through 18 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 1: the situation for house prices in Darwin. From the latest 19 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:05,199 Speaker 1: quarter so. 20 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:07,639 Speaker 2: We have seen house prices in Darwin increase. They increase 21 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 2: about twenty six thousand dollars over the September cousia. So 22 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:14,960 Speaker 2: they're currently sitting at roughly five hundred and ninety thousand dollars. 23 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:17,400 Speaker 2: But what we have seen is a bit of volatility 24 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 2: really over the last kind of twelve to eighteen months 25 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 2: coming out of pricing across the Darwin's property market. We 26 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 2: have seen an increase for house prices this quarter, but 27 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 2: it is the opposite for unit prices. They did drop. 28 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:34,040 Speaker 2: They declined now for the third and six consecutive corsia 29 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 2: and when you look at the annual decline, it was 30 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:38,760 Speaker 2: almost ten percent, which is the steepest annual decline we've 31 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 2: seen for unit prices in four and a half years 32 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:41,679 Speaker 2: for Darwin. 33 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:45,040 Speaker 1: Wow. And so what kind of you know, what kind 34 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:46,680 Speaker 1: of factors come into play here? 35 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 2: I think it is a variety of different things. You know, 36 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 2: we have seen a cash rate higher for longer and 37 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 2: I think that is kind of keeping buyers on the 38 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 2: sidelines obviously restricts burrowing capacity. And I think well, with 39 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 2: the respect of rate cuts coming, you know, perhaps as 40 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 2: early as February next year, I think people are waiting 41 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 2: for those rate cuts. There are some other things that 42 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:10,800 Speaker 2: are quite unique to the Northern territory too, and what 43 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:13,839 Speaker 2: we have got is quite a deep drain a way 44 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 2: of population to other states and territories. So what I 45 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 2: mean by that is there are more people leaving the 46 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:23,520 Speaker 2: Northern Territory to other states and territories than are arriving. 47 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:26,359 Speaker 2: So it's a drain away. It's a loss of population. 48 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 2: And when you have a look at it, the recent 49 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 2: quarters have actually been a record drain away. So when 50 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 2: you've got that negative flow of population obviously weighs in 51 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 2: negatively on housing demands. You need less homes if you're 52 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,360 Speaker 2: seeing people move out. So I think that is weighing in, 53 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 2: particularly so on Darwin's housing market. 54 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, right, And so in terms of any you know, 55 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 1: any sort of increases, what are we saying at the moment. 56 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 2: What's interesting though, is when you drill down into different 57 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 2: suburbs across Darwin, we have got some areas that are 58 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 2: increasing and some areas that have actually gone sight way. 59 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 2: So Stuart Park units and Stuart Park we're up six 60 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:08,839 Speaker 2: percent over the last year, is it? Murr heads Yeah, 61 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 2: seven hundred and thirty medium house price they pretty much 62 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:14,679 Speaker 2: did nothing. They went sideways over the last twelve months. 63 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 2: So there is some different dynamics depending upon the different 64 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 2: suburbs across Starwin and I really think this is so 65 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 2: important anyone looking to get into the housing market. We 66 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 2: talk nationally and we talk about our capital cities. We 67 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 2: also have to remember there are property market dynamics going 68 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 2: on at that suburb level too, So it's really important 69 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 2: you know that those localized dynamics. 70 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 1: And so I mean when you touched on there Stuart 71 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 1: Park and also Newer Head, are there any are there 72 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 1: any areas that are any others that are performing quite 73 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: well at this point or any to sort of you know, 74 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: have a look at. 75 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 2: They're really pretty much the only ones that have seen 76 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 2: an increase, is it Linyar, Yeah, that's it. They always 77 00:03:56,640 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 2: challenge me with these, you know, these suburb names or 78 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 2: that suburb has also gone sideways over the last twelve months. 79 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 2: But we've got some areas where we have seen some decline. 80 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 2: So unit prices in Perap we're down by six percent 81 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 2: in the last twelve months Nightcliff as well, we're down 82 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:18,280 Speaker 2: by about three percent for unit prices. So there is 83 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:21,040 Speaker 2: a bit of diversity going on across the suburbs of Darling. 84 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 1: And in terms of I mean you touched on some 85 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 1: of those factors that come into play in that population 86 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:29,159 Speaker 1: drain probably having a bit of an impact, you know, 87 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 1: I suppose for a lot of us, you know, we're 88 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 1: maybe feeling slightly more positive on the ground at the moment, 89 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 1: but you know, how soon do you think we might 90 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:41,040 Speaker 1: start to see some movement when you look at things 91 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: like those interest rates. I mean, it's like, it's hard 92 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 1: to tell, isn't it. 93 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,559 Speaker 2: We look, it is hard to tell, and I think 94 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 2: it is a bit too early to say precisely. You know, 95 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 2: rate cuts are going to happen this calendar year. I 96 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 2: think it's much more likely to happen next year. There 97 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 2: are still a few hot spots in terms of inflation 98 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 2: pressure points, and we've got to remember still has a 99 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 2: really hot jobs market. We have one of the strongest 100 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:07,800 Speaker 2: jobs markets in the developed world, and we've also seen 101 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 2: a bouncing consumer confidence. These will all be weighing in 102 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 2: the RBA's mind, and that's why I don't think we're 103 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 2: going to see them move. The big four banks have 104 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:18,720 Speaker 2: brought forward their expectations to rate cuts to about February, 105 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 2: but we know we've done analysis on this to look 106 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 2: at what happens if the cash rate is cut, or 107 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:26,280 Speaker 2: what happens if the cash rate has increased, it does 108 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 2: impact poverty prices because it obviously impacts boring capacity. And 109 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 2: so if we do see rates being cut, what we're 110 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 2: likely to see is it will have a positive influence 111 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 2: on prices. That influence is probably likely to be larger 112 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 2: in our really expensive capital cities where boring capacity is 113 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 2: really important, such as the Sydney's that has that medium 114 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 2: house price of one point six million dollars. But it 115 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:53,599 Speaker 2: does play out positively when you see cash rate cuts 116 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 2: coming through. It does play out positively for momentum in 117 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:57,599 Speaker 2: our housing market. 118 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:00,040 Speaker 1: So, Nikola, what is our what in dam and what 119 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 1: is the median house price at this point? 120 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 2: When you have a look at the median house price 121 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:09,679 Speaker 2: in Darwin, it's just it's five hundred and ninety thousand 122 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:12,599 Speaker 2: dollars for a house and for a unit it's sitting 123 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 2: at just over three hundred and thirty thousand dollars. So 124 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:19,359 Speaker 2: I mean Darwin is the most affordable place, affordable capital 125 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:21,360 Speaker 2: city I should say to purchase a house or a 126 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 2: unit in Australia. 127 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 1: Tell us, you know, tell us what is happening in 128 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:27,480 Speaker 1: some of those other major cities, because some of them 129 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,920 Speaker 1: are absolutely gangbusters at the moment, aren't they? And so high, 130 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:34,000 Speaker 1: like the prices are inside and yeah, look the prices 131 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: are eyewatering. 132 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 2: You know, Sydney's as I said, one point sixty five million, 133 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 2: you've got it is a bit diverse across the cities. 134 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:45,840 Speaker 2: Most cities are still seeing increases in price. But what 135 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:48,280 Speaker 2: we've got is a clear slowdown. So what that means 136 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 2: is prices are rising, they're just not rising as fast 137 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:54,160 Speaker 2: as they were. And I think what's quite remarkable at 138 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 2: the moment we currently have three capital cities with a 139 00:06:57,200 --> 00:07:00,160 Speaker 2: median house price above a million dollars. So that's Sydney, 140 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 2: it's Melbourne, and it's Canberra. But we have got Brisbane 141 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 2: and Adelaide really hot on their hills to join the 142 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 2: million dollar club. Their median house price in Brisbane and 143 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 2: Adelaide is very close to achieving that million dollars. In Brisbane, 144 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 2: the median house price is nine hundred and ninety five thousand. 145 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 2: Very likely that Brisbane and Adelaide are going to join 146 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 2: that million dollar club by the end of this calendar year. 147 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 1: And look, I guess that's great if you own a 148 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 1: home or if you're you know, maybe looking at selling 149 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 1: your home. But for some of those first home buyers, Gee, 150 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 1: it must be hard trying to get into the market. 151 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:37,679 Speaker 2: It is challenging for first home buyers. And I think 152 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 2: that you know, when price is arising. We've seen strong 153 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 2: rates of price growth when you look at the changing 154 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 2: price since March twenty twenty. You know, when you look 155 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 2: at Adelaide Brisbane, they've seen sixty seventy, you know, eighty 156 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 2: a increase in price over that period of time and 157 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 2: it's I think it's really disheartening, you know, when you're 158 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 2: unable to keep up with price growth. I think for 159 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 2: any first home buyer out there, you know, Forbility can't 160 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 2: there are pockets of affordability. Units are obviously much lower 161 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 2: in price points and they just haven't seen such greater 162 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:10,920 Speaker 2: rates of price growth as houses. And we do have 163 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 2: more affordability in some of our smaller capital cities. You know, 164 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 2: Darwin is up there in terms of affordability stakes. You 165 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 2: know Hobart as well. Adelaide has always been known as 166 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 2: that more affordable market, but I think that has changed 167 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 2: during the pandemic. 168 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: Nikola I knows it. And look, you may not have 169 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 1: this background, but the government here the new government, they've 170 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 1: offered a range of grants for first time buyers and 171 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 1: those wanting a fresh start. I mean, what's your take 172 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 1: on things like that. 173 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:41,400 Speaker 2: We do need to make sure we have the right 174 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 2: policies in place to help first and buyers, you know, 175 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 2: get a foot onto the property ladder, particularly when they're 176 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:49,240 Speaker 2: facing really tight rental conditions, which has really been the 177 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 2: ear mark of our rental markets over the last few years. 178 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:55,160 Speaker 2: The thing is, when you have a cash incentive, and 179 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 2: particularly if it's got a time deadline, what that creates 180 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 2: is it pulls forward a whole lot of first home 181 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 2: buyer demand. And all of these first home buyers are 182 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 2: fighting for the same amount of properties available, and they're 183 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 2: all going for similar price points. So what you tend 184 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:13,080 Speaker 2: to find if you are boosting someone's ability to pay 185 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 2: for a home by a financial incentive, that tends to 186 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 2: just add to property prices, and you tend to see 187 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 2: an elevation. It tends to drive prices higher. I think, 188 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 2: you know really what we need to see and we're 189 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 2: seeing this, you know, at that federal level with the 190 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 2: housing cord it needs to be about supply. We need 191 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 2: to build more homes in the right areas, creating affordable supply. 192 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 2: We haven't met population growth in terms of building enough 193 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:41,560 Speaker 2: homes to meet population growth. That is the solution, not 194 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 2: giving people cash. 195 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, look, I really appreciate your time this morning. 196 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 1: As always love having a chat with you. Thanks so 197 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 1: much for having a chat with me this morning, Nicola, 198 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: and we will talk to you soon. 199 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 2: Thank you, thank you.