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Speaker 1: Now, as we know, national security is at the four

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Speaker 1: in Australia right now. I think we're right around the world.

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Speaker 1: It's something that we're all talking about. But we spoke

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Speaker 1: to the Prime Minister Scott Morrison on the show on

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Speaker 1: Friday about his rhetoric around China. Then over the weekend

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Speaker 1: it was reported that the Chinese Navy had used military

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Speaker 1: grade laser to attack a Royal Australian Air Force plane.

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Speaker 1: Now joining me on the line is doctor John Coyne.

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Speaker 1: He's the head of the Northern Australia Strategic Policy Institute.

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Speaker 1: Good morning to you.

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Speaker 2: John, Good morning Katie.

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Speaker 1: Lovely to have you on the show. Now, John, I

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Speaker 1: know that that angry Australian Department of Defense officials have

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Speaker 1: seen to please explain. Note it's been reported to counterparts

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Speaker 1: in Beijing after the Chinese Navy used allegedly this military

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Speaker 1: grade laser to attack a Royal Australian Air Force plane.

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Speaker 1: The incident's become a real political flashpoint, I think. But

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Speaker 1: what does it mean for everyday Assie's listening to us

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Speaker 1: this morning?

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Speaker 2: Okay, Look, first off, I think that there's some the

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Speaker 2: terminology needs a little bit of explanation, So a lot

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Speaker 2: of people are going, you know, are we talking about

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Speaker 2: a laser pointer? Are we talking about you know, someone

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Speaker 2: shining a torch? And I've seen some of these things

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Speaker 2: come out on Twitter. What we're talking about here is

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Speaker 2: a laser that's used for weapon systems to identify a target.

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Speaker 2: So that could either be for a missile or alternatively

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Speaker 2: like a thirty milk cannon, so like a big cannon

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Speaker 2: to shoot down incoming aircraft. So that's a really aggressive act.

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Speaker 2: Australia has never done that in any of the times

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Speaker 2: that it's done. It's sailed through the South China Sea.

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Speaker 2: The Chinese People's Liberation Navy actually called the PLA Navy.

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Speaker 2: It's done this before in the South China Sea. So

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Speaker 2: we're talking about very very significant. Now there's lots of

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Speaker 2: people saying, well, the picture shows our aircraft targeting. The

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Speaker 2: picture shows a picture that taken somewhere between four kilometers

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Speaker 2: and seven kilometers away from that warship, so you know

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Speaker 2: they were well away. They were doing what they normally do,

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Speaker 2: the Australian Air Force, which is trying to identify as

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Speaker 2: ship and taking photos and images of it. This is

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Speaker 2: an extraordinary turn of events.

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Speaker 1: Wow, I mean, that's quite frightening, I guess for some

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Speaker 1: of us to hear, because when you actually look at this,

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Speaker 1: it's not that far away from the Northern Territory.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's exactly right. Now. You know, one of the

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Speaker 2: things I love about territories is increasing they understand how

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Speaker 2: strategically important they are in world politics. Came in terms

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Speaker 2: of geography. So you know, people say down here in camera,

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Speaker 2: they're always talking about strategic geography. People in the territory

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Speaker 2: live in strategic geography and know they're part of the region,

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Speaker 2: not a world away from it. So I think this

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Speaker 2: is the first part of it. So what we're seeing

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Speaker 2: here is probably the first of what will be many, many,

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Speaker 2: many more incidents. An empowered Chinese Communist Party will increasingly

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Speaker 2: sell warships close to Australian waters.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and John, for us, you know, selling those Chinese

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Speaker 1: warships closer to Australian waters ultimately means a bit closer

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Speaker 1: to the territory, doesn't it.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's exactly right, and I think you know, the

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Speaker 2: waters around the territory important the Chinese were sending. So

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Speaker 2: you know, part of this discussion is the Chinese Communist

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Speaker 2: Party were sending a supply ship to Tonga. Yes they were,

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Speaker 2: but they had accompanied with if a warship, so it

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Speaker 2: wasn't just a heavy landing craft. There was a warship

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Speaker 2: and they were Yes, they were in international waters, but

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Speaker 2: they were very very close to our easy so you know, yes,

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Speaker 2: they were right up there. And so once again, just

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Speaker 2: like during the Cold War, you know those waters around

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Speaker 2: Northern Australia are going to be increasingly important. They're important

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Speaker 2: for the US, they're important to the Japanese, and they're

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Speaker 2: important for the Chinese.

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Speaker 1: And John, I guess that's not lost on us. Like

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Speaker 1: you'd said just a couple of moments ago, we in

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Speaker 1: the Northern Territory know that we're strategically and geographically important.

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Speaker 1: I guess the other part of it is that we

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Speaker 1: also know we're quite vulnerable. You know, on the weekend

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Speaker 1: we commemorated the eightieth anniversary of the bombing of Darwin,

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Speaker 1: So we know that we are a vulnerable place in

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Speaker 1: that sense. But we also know that the federal government

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Speaker 1: continues to announce the ball string of defense infrastructure and

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Speaker 1: that kind of thing in the territory.

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Speaker 2: So what does it all mean for us? Look, you know,

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Speaker 2: what I want to put it this one. I think

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Speaker 2: I've said this to you before, which is so I

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Speaker 2: was in high school in the eighties, yeap, giving away

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Speaker 2: my age here, But at that time, we feared thermonuclear war,

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Speaker 2: which is what you call an existential threat to humanity.

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Speaker 2: You know, what we could have had is a big

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Speaker 2: thermonuclear war, and it could have ended humanity. So as

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Speaker 2: a young I was really concerned about this. There were

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Speaker 2: movies and all sorts of things. Well fast forward. Back then,

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Speaker 2: we had lots of rules of the road to prevent that.

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Speaker 2: I don't think we're facing today a thermo nuclear war,

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Speaker 2: but we're facing a degree of strategic uncertainty that we

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Speaker 2: haven't faced for several decades, and that is playing out

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Speaker 2: all over the world, and there's very few rule books

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Speaker 2: for so you know, who would have known. So if

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Speaker 2: we were in nineteen ninety five or even the year

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Speaker 2: two thousand, that we'd been looking at a possible Russian

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Speaker 2: invasion of Ukraine, you know that we'd see seeing Chinese

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Speaker 2: called economic punishment to Australian exports, that we'd see this

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Speaker 2: sort of you know, aircraft being lasered by Chinese warships.

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Speaker 2: So you know, we're in a really uncertain period of

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Speaker 2: time where there's less warning and less rule books, so

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Speaker 2: we need to be more prepared.

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Speaker 1: And I suppose the other part of it as well,

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Speaker 1: John is you know, I noticed I interviewed the Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister on Friday and we spoke about about the relationship

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Speaker 1: with China and he was very keen to sort of

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Speaker 1: put that wedge between the coalition government and a possible

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Speaker 1: labor government. But I would imagine that no matter what

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Speaker 1: side of politics you sit on, you want to make

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Speaker 1: sure that that first and foremost you are trying to

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Speaker 1: you know, trying to protect and look after Australians.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know what I guess. First off, I'll leave

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Speaker 2: the politics to the politician, but I will say this

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Speaker 2: is that in a general sense, we are very fortunate

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Speaker 2: in Australia that we have bipartisan support of defense and

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Speaker 2: national security. Now, sometimes the delivery of that is divergent

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Speaker 2: between the party, So the delivering on you know, the

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Speaker 2: declared policy, the difference between that and what actually happens

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Speaker 2: is somewhat different. But certainly we are seeing a level

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Speaker 2: of bipartisanship and we're seeing there's concerns on both sides

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Speaker 2: the politics of what we're facing. And so you know,

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Speaker 2: if the question that you're asking me is, you know,

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Speaker 2: are we likely if there's a change of government, a

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Speaker 2: big change in defense posture or strategic certainty? I don't

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Speaker 2: think so. I think that, you know, pessimistically, and I'm

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Speaker 2: an old intelligence person, so you know, my whole life's

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Speaker 2: about being cynical and pessimistic. I think we say at

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Speaker 2: least at least a decade of uncertainty to come. Wow.

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Speaker 1: And then you touched on this just a moment ago,

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Speaker 1: and I mean, we won't go too deep into it,

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Speaker 1: but we know that the situation with Russia and the

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Speaker 1: Ukraine at the moment, you know this morning, even it's

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Speaker 1: it's looking even more uncertain than it was I suppose yesterday.

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Speaker 1: What does that all mean for the rest of us?

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Speaker 2: Look what it means is in you know, it's starting

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Speaker 2: with the Obama regime with the Americans. The Americans under

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Speaker 2: Obama put lots of what they call red lines out

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Speaker 2: there and they said, if you cross this red line.

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Speaker 2: So one was given the Seria back in the day,

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Speaker 2: and it's like, if you use chemical weapons, that's the

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Speaker 2: red line, and we'll take action. Against you, and what

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Speaker 2: happened on numerous occasions is that the US stepped back

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Speaker 2: from those red lines, never responded. So what we're seeing

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Speaker 2: here is very much a Russia empowered by Putent trying

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Speaker 2: to push up and seeing what he can get away with. Now.

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Speaker 2: Whether or not he invade Ukraine remains to be seen,

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Speaker 2: but he is certainly pushing all of those redlines right now.

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Speaker 1: Well, doctor John Coyne, it is always interesting to catch

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Speaker 1: up with you. I find our discussions fascinating and really

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Speaker 1: appreciate your time.

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Speaker 2: Thank Katie, talk to you soon.

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Speaker 1: Thank you,