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Speaker 1: But the latest prop Track figures for March have been

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Speaker 1: released and show that Darwin and the Territory is languishing

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Speaker 1: at the bottom of the national home price index as

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Speaker 1: the only jurisdiction to record declines in both the city

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Speaker 1: and regions in the past years. So across the country,

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Speaker 1: according to the Northern Territory News, across the country, homeowners

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Speaker 1: are experiencing a surge in prices, but here in the

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Speaker 1: Northern Territory we're missing out on a post COVID property boom.

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Speaker 1: So joining us on the line to tell us more

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Speaker 1: about the latest data is prop Track economist Eleanor Craig.

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Speaker 1: Good morning to you, Eleanor.

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Speaker 2: Morning Katie. Great to be here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, lovely to speak with you this morning. Now, can

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Speaker 1: you tell us first off, what is the current median

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Speaker 1: price for a Darwin home.

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Speaker 2: We're looking at the current median value of a home

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Speaker 2: in Darwin. We're looking at around four hundred and eighty

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Speaker 2: two thousand dollars, So Darwin does remain that the cheapest

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Speaker 2: capital city market across the country. But even so, we

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Speaker 2: are seeing that home price growth in Darwin is lagging

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Speaker 2: other markets at the moment. So the Project Home Price

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Speaker 2: Index shows that home prices in Darwin rows by very

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Speaker 2: small point zero percent in March and that brings them

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Speaker 2: down zero point sixty four percent on level seen in

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Speaker 2: March last year. Now, many all other capital city markets,

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Speaker 2: with the exception of Hobart, are continuing to record a

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Speaker 2: strong pace of price growth in March.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, right, So just how big is the price growth

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Speaker 1: in a lot of those other major cities and other

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Speaker 1: locations around Australia.

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Speaker 2: So we're seeing that it's the markets of Perth, Adelaide

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Speaker 2: and Brisbane that are really outperforming at the moment, and

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Speaker 2: those three markets are recording significant home price growth. In fact,

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Speaker 2: home prices in Perth are up almost twenty percent in

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Speaker 2: the past year now. That's followed by Adelaide at thirteen

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Speaker 2: and a half percent and Brisbane coming in at twelve

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Speaker 2: point nine percent. Now, Sydney also is continuing to record

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Speaker 2: an above average pace of price growth, as home prices

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Speaker 2: in sitting up a little over eight percent over the

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Speaker 2: past here. In contrast, Melbourne, Hobart, Canberra and Darwinner all

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Speaker 2: recording a weaker pace of price growth.

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Speaker 1: And so why is it do you think that that Well,

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Speaker 1: not only Darwin, but the northern territory more generally is

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Speaker 1: seeing such you know, such a weak rise.

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Speaker 2: It's certainly an interesting question, and I mean at the

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Speaker 2: moment we are really seeing that it is those I

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Speaker 2: guess East Groast capital city markets like Sydney and then

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Speaker 2: the relatively affordable smaller capital city markets like Brisbane, Adelaide

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Speaker 2: and Perth that are really leading home price growth at

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Speaker 2: the moment. I'd say one of the fact is there's

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Speaker 2: always a multitude of back yes, the impact home prices,

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Speaker 2: but one of the significant factors that is continuing to

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Speaker 2: drive a very strong pace of price growth in those

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Speaker 2: markets over other markets is the fact that the demands

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Speaker 2: supply in balance is much more extreme. So we know

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Speaker 2: that housing or home buying demand is being buoyed at

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Speaker 2: the moment by strong population growth, very tight rental markets,

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Speaker 2: resilient labor market conditions, and of course those home equity

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Speaker 2: gains of recent years. But at the same time, the

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Speaker 2: supply of new housing is very constrained and this slowdown

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Speaker 2: in the delivery and completion of new bills is really

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Speaker 2: most impacting those markets and one of the biggest drivers

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Speaker 2: that we're seeing in terms of the Brisbane, Adelaide and

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Speaker 2: Perth continuing to record a much stronger pace of price

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Speaker 2: growth than many other markets. Is the fact that the

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Speaker 2: supply of properties listed for sale on market is incredibly constrained.

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Speaker 2: So in each of those three markets the total number

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Speaker 2: of properties listed on market is around forty percent below

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Speaker 2: pre pandemic averages. So really type supply conditions.

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Speaker 1: Well, and I get you know, for us here in

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Speaker 1: the territory, we just really have not seen a big

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Speaker 1: population growth either, so it does have an impact Ellen,

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Speaker 1: or can I ask obviously we've spoken about Darwin, and

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Speaker 1: you know the home prices in Darwin, how is it

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Speaker 1: more generally across the board in the Northern Territory.

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Speaker 2: So looking at regional Northern Territory home prices also posted

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Speaker 2: again a very slight gain in March, so a point

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Speaker 2: zero three percent rise in regional nty in March. Now

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Speaker 2: that brings them that or still leaves them down two

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Speaker 2: point nine percent on level seen in March last year,

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Speaker 2: and down three point six percent from their peak recorded

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two when interest rates first started rising.

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Speaker 1: Now in terms of here in the Northern Territory, and

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Speaker 1: it's something that we sort of spoke about a little

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Speaker 1: bit yesterday on the show. Do you know if there's

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Speaker 1: you know, if there is much sort of happening in

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Speaker 1: other states to try and incentivize people getting into their

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Speaker 1: first homes and that kind of thing, And does that

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Speaker 1: make a difference then in terms of, you know, the

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Speaker 1: sales across the board.

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Speaker 2: Certainly, we know that there are various schemes for first

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Speaker 2: time buyers to take advantage of, but still conditions are

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Speaker 2: really difficult or really tough for first time buyers at

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Speaker 2: the moment. So we've seen many markets have recorded significant

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Speaker 2: price rises over the past four years, and of course,

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Speaker 2: existing homeowners benefit from those equity gains on their homes

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Speaker 2: and as a result, to somewhat insulated from the higher

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Speaker 2: rate environment that we're currently in. But for first time buyers,

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Speaker 2: with home prices having increased so significantly in recent years

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Speaker 2: and mortgage servicing costs being a lot higher as well,

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Speaker 2: affordability has deteriorated markedly. And that deposit hurdle, which really

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Speaker 2: is the most significant hurdle to home ownership, has also

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Speaker 2: increased with home prices having increased, so it's likely taking

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Speaker 2: many longer to save for a deposit on that first home.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, geez, it'd be hard, I reckon trying to get

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Speaker 1: your first time at this point in time for so

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Speaker 1: many of these you know, for various reasons, but gee,

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Speaker 1: it must be tough.

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Speaker 2: Yes, certainly. And I mean although home price growth in

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Speaker 2: Darwin is lagging at the moment, we have still seen

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Speaker 2: that that Darwin home prices have increased twenty five percent

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Speaker 2: on pre pandemic levels. So it's sactly four years now

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Speaker 2: since the pandemic onset and with home prices having increased

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Speaker 2: twenty five percent on pre pandemic levels, we know that

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Speaker 2: it's likely that for many would be first time buyers

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Speaker 2: it is more difficult to get into the market now.

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Speaker 2: Interest rates are much higher and property prices are higher

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Speaker 2: as well, so that deposit is likely taking longer to

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Speaker 2: say for and needs it needs to be bigger, eleanor.

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Speaker 1: What do you think could you know, what do you

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Speaker 1: think could spark a change to the market in the

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Speaker 1: Northern Territory and you know see those prices go back up.

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Speaker 2: Well, we've seen in other markets. It's really all about

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Speaker 2: that housing demand and housing supply in balance. So any

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Speaker 2: factor that were to increase housing demand in Darwin and

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Speaker 2: in the Northern Territory relative to the supply of housing

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Speaker 2: that's available would likely see house prices joining the recovery

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Speaker 2: that we're seeing elsewhere in home prices, or indeed in

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Speaker 2: some markets it's no longer recovery and more they're actually

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Speaker 2: sitting at fresh pire price peaks, having recovered all of

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Speaker 2: the losses recorded when interest rates were first rising.

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Speaker 1: Eleanor anything else interesting. Through the data that you've you

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Speaker 1: know that you've sort of gathered on the northern territory

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Speaker 1: that you think our listeners might be keen to know about.

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Speaker 2: Well, certainly we know that home prices in Darwin are

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Speaker 2: or do remain relatively affordable relative to the rest of

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Speaker 2: the country. And at the same time, although rental markets

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Speaker 2: aren't quite as tight in Darwin as they are in say, Perth,

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Speaker 2: Adelaide or Britaine, rental market conditions are still relatively constrained.

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Speaker 2: Now with hope, with that relative affordability advantage, and with

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Speaker 2: tight rental markets and rental price growth ongoing, that could

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Speaker 2: present opportunity for some investors looking to take advantage of

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Speaker 2: that relative affordability that homes in Darwin may offer relative

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Speaker 2: to some of the other capital city markets well eleanor Cray.

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Speaker 1: I really appreciate your time this morning. Prop Track senior economist,

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Speaker 1: Thanks so much for having a chat with us.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for having me, Thank you