WEBVTT - Your guide to election day

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<v Speaker 1>Already and this is the Daily This is the Daily OS.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh now it makes sense. Good morning, and welcome to

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<v Speaker 1>the Daily OS. It's Friday, the second of May. I'm belief,

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<v Speaker 1>it's Simon's I'm Zara Seidler. The election is finally here.

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<v Speaker 1>It is tomorrow, which means that we're at the end

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<v Speaker 1>of our Politics one oh one series. So to wrap

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<v Speaker 1>up the week, we want to arm you with all

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<v Speaker 1>of the information you need to make sense of Election

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<v Speaker 1>night itself. In this episode, we're going to do things

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit differently, and we're going to take you

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<v Speaker 1>through the number, the words, the moment and the time

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<v Speaker 1>for you to look out for come tomorrow night.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>This is something that we developed Billy earlier in the

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<v Speaker 3>week when we hosted some Politics in the Pub events,

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<v Speaker 3>and anyone that's listening that attended those events, thank you.

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<v Speaker 3>We loved meeting you, Billy, and I love talking about politics,

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<v Speaker 3>and the fact that we got to do that in

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<v Speaker 3>real life.

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<v Speaker 1>Was truly a pleasure with a charazin hand.

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<v Speaker 2>With a charaz in hand, how could we forget?

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<v Speaker 3>But it is just, I think, a really good framework

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<v Speaker 3>to understand because there's so much going on in election

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<v Speaker 3>night if you tune into one of the TV stations,

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<v Speaker 3>there's like graphics thrown around, there are words, the jargon

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<v Speaker 3>like things people who pay attention each and every day

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<v Speaker 3>might not even understand. And so this is a way

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<v Speaker 3>to just distill the information that you need to pay

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<v Speaker 3>attention to. So, Billy, let's start with the number first.

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<v Speaker 3>What is the magic number that people need to listen

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<v Speaker 3>out for.

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like we should have a drum roll or something, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>to reveal the number. Producer Elliot role the magic number

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<v Speaker 1>is seventy six. So here we're talking about the House

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<v Speaker 1>of Representatives. That is where the government is formed. And

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<v Speaker 1>in Australia we have one hundred and fifty electorates, which

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<v Speaker 1>means that we have one hundred and fifty seats and

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<v Speaker 1>in order to form government you need a majority of that.

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<v Speaker 1>So one hundred and fifty divided by two seventy five

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<v Speaker 1>plus one to reach the majority. A quick, little mass class.

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<v Speaker 3>You're saying it with such a smile on your face

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<v Speaker 3>because you know that I have struggled through the maths

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<v Speaker 3>of it all.

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<v Speaker 2>But yes, that is correct.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's good to walk people through it. So,

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<v Speaker 1>so seventy six is how many seats a party needs

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<v Speaker 1>to reach in order to form a majority government. So

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<v Speaker 1>if you're watching the election tomorrow night, you'll see the

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<v Speaker 1>seventy six come up time and time again. If a

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<v Speaker 1>party reaches out number, that means election is over. That

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<v Speaker 1>party has one.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, So you're sitting at home or you're at an

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<v Speaker 3>election party. I don't know if people still have election parties.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh, my parents too, and it is a fall off.

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<v Speaker 1>It is all they have spoken about for a year.

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<v Speaker 1>They have put more planning into this election night party

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<v Speaker 1>than anything else.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, excellent, So we have proof that election night parties

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<v Speaker 3>still exists. So if people are at an election night

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<v Speaker 3>party and perhaps the volumes down and people are talking,

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<v Speaker 3>but there is need to listen out for that magic

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<v Speaker 3>seventy six, okay, And when that happens, a majority has

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<v Speaker 3>been reached, the election is called and we know who

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<v Speaker 3>has won.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, all right, so that's a number.

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<v Speaker 3>Talk me through the word people need to be listening

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<v Speaker 3>out for, because, as I said earlier, there are quite

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<v Speaker 3>a few words said on election night.

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<v Speaker 2>How do you narrow it down. What's the one word

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<v Speaker 2>that you think people need to really pay attention to?

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So the word we have chosen is marginal, and

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<v Speaker 1>now that is what we use to describe certain seats

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<v Speaker 1>that I was talking about before, the seats that we

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<v Speaker 1>don't know which way it's going to go, and from

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<v Speaker 1>election to election they tend to go either way. Now

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<v Speaker 1>we know which ones are the marginal seats based on

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<v Speaker 1>the result from last election and then also from current polling.

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<v Speaker 1>There is a technical definition from the AEC which is

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<v Speaker 1>if at the last election the winner won by less

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<v Speaker 1>than fifty six percent, then that seat is considered a

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<v Speaker 1>marginal seat. So it's literally just about the margin by

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<v Speaker 1>which they won the previous election.

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<v Speaker 2>Margin, got it? Margin for marginal?

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<v Speaker 1>Are you allowed to use the word in the definition

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<v Speaker 1>of the word? I think yes.

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<v Speaker 2>You would lose an articulation, but I will allow it

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<v Speaker 2>this one.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you. So about a third of the one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and fifty seats in Parliament are marginal, So those are

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<v Speaker 1>fifty seats for us to look out for at tomorrow's election.

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<v Speaker 1>But I thought we could go through one each, sar,

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<v Speaker 1>do you yes? Putting you on the spot, all right,

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<v Speaker 1>do you have a marginal seat that you have favorite? Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>So you've thought about a lot this election.

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<v Speaker 3>One that I have been thinking about, and I think

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<v Speaker 3>it's because there's been quite a lot of coverage of it.

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<v Speaker 3>Is the seat of Dixon. That is Peter Dudden's seat,

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<v Speaker 3>so it's the most marginal seat in Queensland, and I

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<v Speaker 3>think that that's a really interesting thing in and of itself,

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<v Speaker 3>that the leader of a party could potentially find himself

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<v Speaker 3>in a situation where he loses his seat but his

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<v Speaker 3>party wins the election. And so I think I'm keeping

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<v Speaker 3>a really strong focus on Dixon. There we have Ali France,

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<v Speaker 3>who the ALP have put up for election I think

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<v Speaker 3>maybe three elections in a row to contest the seat

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<v Speaker 3>of Dixon. She has been unsuccessful to date, but she

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<v Speaker 3>is looking to win that seat off opposition leader Peter Dubnan.

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<v Speaker 3>So that is one that I'll be keeping an eye on.

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<v Speaker 3>What about you, Billy, Just.

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<v Speaker 1>Quickly on Dixon. What's so interesting about that is I'm

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<v Speaker 1>pretty sure that Peter Dunnan has held that seat since

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<v Speaker 1>something like two thousand and one, but throughout that whole time,

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<v Speaker 1>so twenty five years now almost, it has been marginal.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So even though you'd think that it's a safe

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<v Speaker 1>seat considering how long he has held it. It has

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<v Speaker 1>always been a marginal seed, so it's quite amazing that

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<v Speaker 1>he has held on to it for so long.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, okay.

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<v Speaker 1>My one that I have been paying close attention to

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<v Speaker 1>is Kuyong.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>That is one of the seats in Melbourne and it

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<v Speaker 1>was one of the ones that one of the Teal

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<v Speaker 1>independents took from one of the Liberal MP's, quite a

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<v Speaker 1>famous Liberal MP in Josh Fridenberg who was the then Treasurer.

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<v Speaker 1>She defeated him at the last election. It's since then

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<v Speaker 1>been quite a high profile seat and certainly this election

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<v Speaker 1>that has remained. I saw a TikTok the other day

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<v Speaker 1>that was from someone who said that if you're saying

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<v Speaker 1>this election is boring, you clearly haven't been paying attention

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<v Speaker 1>to what is happening in ku Yong.

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<v Speaker 2>Agreed.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think we need to get into all of

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<v Speaker 1>the drama, but just know there has been so much drama,

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<v Speaker 1>and my god, the politics in that electorate that have

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<v Speaker 1>been going on have been insane to watch and it

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<v Speaker 1>will be absolutely fascinating to see what happens tomorrow night

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<v Speaker 1>in Kuyong. That is the one I'm just so interested

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<v Speaker 1>to see what happens.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and it is really interesting because sometimes it's very

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<v Speaker 3>clear straight off about poll's close, and you start to

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<v Speaker 3>get these early results. And Anthony Green on the ABC,

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<v Speaker 3>who's kind of considered the election overlord, it's the key.

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<v Speaker 3>It's his last election there, so it's the last time

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<v Speaker 3>he'll be doing it. But he'll call seats quite early

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<v Speaker 3>if he's very confident. And so it could be that

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<v Speaker 3>we are very quickly getting a result from somewhere likeo Young,

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<v Speaker 3>or it could be hours and hours and hours or

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<v Speaker 3>days and days and days.

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<v Speaker 1>It could if it's if it's really close, then I'm

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<v Speaker 1>sure it will take. It won't be instant.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So that's certainly one to keep an eye on. Billy.

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<v Speaker 3>We've talked through the number to keep an ear out for.

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<v Speaker 3>We've spoken about the word that people should keep in

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<v Speaker 3>the front of their mind. What to you is the

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<v Speaker 3>standout moment from any election?

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, the moment is the phone call. Now, every single election,

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<v Speaker 1>there will be a phone call between the two leaders

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<v Speaker 1>before either of them declare victory or concede, and so

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<v Speaker 1>the phone call will be from the person who loses.

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<v Speaker 1>They typically will then call the person who wins and

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<v Speaker 1>say I concede, congratulations, You've won the election. And then

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<v Speaker 1>the winner will go out and do their victory speech,

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<v Speaker 1>and often they'll start that speech by saying, I've just

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<v Speaker 1>had a phone call from so and so, and I

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<v Speaker 1>can now declare victory.

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<v Speaker 2>Can you imagine a more awkward phone call?

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<v Speaker 3>No, Like I have any of my friends who listen

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<v Speaker 3>to this will know my phones permanently on, do not disturb.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm not interested in answering phone calls. So the fear

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<v Speaker 3>of phone calls is a starting point. Imagine just having

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<v Speaker 3>to say I've lost, You've won, well done.

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<v Speaker 1>Also from someone who like, it's not like they've been

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<v Speaker 1>friendsout this entire election camp by No. Yeah, and also

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of this election has become quite personal between them,

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<v Speaker 1>in the attacks that they direct towards one another. And

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<v Speaker 1>so you know, after all of these kind of nastiness,

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<v Speaker 1>you then have to call the person say congratulations.

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<v Speaker 2>And like, how do they get each other's numbers?

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think that they have them their teams? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>say to your team.

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<v Speaker 3>Hand over the number, I'll call him. Hope it goes

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<v Speaker 3>to voicemail.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, And this is something that happens at elections around

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<v Speaker 1>the world. It's definitely not unique to Australia. I know

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<v Speaker 1>that Joe Biden called Donald Trump before Donald Trump declared victory,

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<v Speaker 1>so it's a very common thing.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, okay, so we are waiting for or not wait,

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<v Speaker 3>we are not running for prime minister, but whoever Claire's victory,

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<v Speaker 3>we'll only do that when the other usually has conceded.

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<v Speaker 3>We know that that happens via a phone call at

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<v Speaker 3>some point during the evening, so that is a good

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<v Speaker 3>one to keep an eye on. We have mentioned though,

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<v Speaker 3>that we don't really know how long this can all take,

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<v Speaker 3>So can you just set up a bit of a

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<v Speaker 3>timeline for us for Saturday night?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, so polls close at six pm, no matter what

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<v Speaker 1>state you're in, and then the counting immediately begins. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>the Australian Electoral Commission, who oversees elections in Australia, they

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<v Speaker 1>say that we can start to see results roll in

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<v Speaker 1>at about seven pm, particularly from the smaller polling centers,

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<v Speaker 1>and then for the medium to bigger size polling centers,

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<v Speaker 1>they say that we'll start to see results from about

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<v Speaker 1>eight to eight thirty PM. So I think based on

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<v Speaker 1>that at about nine pm, I would say that is

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<v Speaker 1>the time for you to tune in, and we should

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<v Speaker 1>by that time understand kind of what direction this is

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<v Speaker 1>going in. If it's really close, it will go for

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<v Speaker 1>hours and hours an hour, but again we'll know if

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<v Speaker 1>it's really close by about nine pm.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, And it's interesting because in every election around the world,

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<v Speaker 3>when you first start to see results come back, it

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<v Speaker 3>can swing really strongly one way. But that's just representative

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<v Speaker 3>of where those early votes are coming from, not necessary

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<v Speaker 3>the direction of the overall vote. It is also interesting

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<v Speaker 3>to note, I don't know if people know this, that

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<v Speaker 3>early voting doesn't get counted early. So people who send

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<v Speaker 3>in postal votes or people that have gone to pre

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<v Speaker 3>poll and we know that's a huge percentage of the electorate,

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<v Speaker 3>those votes aren't counted any earlier than the ones that are.

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<v Speaker 2>Lodged on election day.

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<v Speaker 3>So there's a lot of counting that gets done in

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<v Speaker 3>a short period of time, and it's still all done

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<v Speaker 3>by humans.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, So there you go, Billy.

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<v Speaker 3>We've spoken about when we'll have a sense of what's

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<v Speaker 3>going on. You work in the media, though, we are

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<v Speaker 3>going to be telling I do. We are going to

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<v Speaker 3>be telling our audience when the election has been called,

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<v Speaker 3>how do we know.

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<v Speaker 1>We know from the data that the Australian Electoral Commission

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<v Speaker 1>puts on their website. So they have something called the

0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:10.720
<v Speaker 1>tally Room and that is available to every single person.

0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:13.160
<v Speaker 1>You can just access it on their website and that

0:11:13.200 --> 0:11:15.840
<v Speaker 1>gives you all of the raw data as the votes

0:11:15.880 --> 0:11:18.720
<v Speaker 1>are coming in. I think it's updated every ninety seconds

0:11:18.800 --> 0:11:19.960
<v Speaker 1>or so, and.

0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:22.480
<v Speaker 2>That's persons sitting there entering the data.

0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:25.040
<v Speaker 1>Point well, that will be us not entering it, but

0:11:25.120 --> 0:11:28.400
<v Speaker 1>then looking at it every ninety seconds. And so then

0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:32.000
<v Speaker 1>the media including us, go to that tally room and

0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:35.040
<v Speaker 1>use that data to try to understand what is happening

0:11:35.080 --> 0:11:38.200
<v Speaker 1>in each electorate. And once a certain number of votes

0:11:38.240 --> 0:11:41.559
<v Speaker 1>are called, then you can pretty confidently say whether a

0:11:41.760 --> 0:11:44.640
<v Speaker 1>seat has swung either way. And then again, if enough

0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:47.600
<v Speaker 1>seats have been called and one of the parties reaches

0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:50.360
<v Speaker 1>seventy six, based on that, a winner will be declared.

0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:54.000
<v Speaker 1>But that winner is only declared by the media on

0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:55.880
<v Speaker 1>the night, which is kind of a funny thing. The

0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:59.560
<v Speaker 1>AEC will never declare the winner on election night because

0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:01.960
<v Speaker 1>they have to go through so many of the counting, Yeah,

0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:04.679
<v Speaker 1>all of the counting and also so many formal processes.

0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:08.280
<v Speaker 1>Even after that counting is done, so it is quite

0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:11.080
<v Speaker 1>a long process, at least for the AEC, but for

0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:13.439
<v Speaker 1>the media, once they have enough of the raw data,

0:12:13.720 --> 0:12:16.920
<v Speaker 1>it usually will be called, often by none other than

0:12:16.960 --> 0:12:17.640
<v Speaker 1>Anthony Green.

0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:21.040
<v Speaker 3>You're just going to say, news outlets across the country

0:12:21.400 --> 0:12:24.560
<v Speaker 3>and across the world. During every single election, it's this

0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:28.120
<v Speaker 3>tension of when to call it because you know there

0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:32.079
<v Speaker 3>can be early results that might radically change through the night.

0:12:32.240 --> 0:12:34.959
<v Speaker 3>It's not overly likely, but we do tend to be

0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:37.760
<v Speaker 3>a bit more conservative in when we will call the election,

0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:41.360
<v Speaker 3>and as you said, Anthony Green is usually the first

0:12:41.559 --> 0:12:45.040
<v Speaker 3>to call it officially. But then, as you said, once

0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:47.280
<v Speaker 3>that phone calls happen and once a leader gets up,

0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:48.400
<v Speaker 3>that's a pretty sure thing.

0:12:48.760 --> 0:12:52.439
<v Speaker 2>The election has been called. All right now, believe I.

0:12:52.360 --> 0:12:56.240
<v Speaker 3>Want to end on a question which might seem counterproductive,

0:12:57.200 --> 0:13:00.920
<v Speaker 3>but there is I think a big question linking as

0:13:00.960 --> 0:13:05.080
<v Speaker 3>we head into election night because the polls are telling

0:13:05.160 --> 0:13:07.679
<v Speaker 3>us one thing. The polls have told us one thing

0:13:07.880 --> 0:13:10.720
<v Speaker 3>many times in a row. They might not have been correct.

0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:13.840
<v Speaker 3>Can we trust the polls? Will the polls be right?

0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:16.720
<v Speaker 1>Yeah? This is the key question. Will the polls be right?

0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:19.320
<v Speaker 1>Where you have seen time and time again, not just

0:13:19.360 --> 0:13:22.679
<v Speaker 1>in Australia but around the world examples of polls being wrong,

0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:26.680
<v Speaker 1>most famously in Australia. This is just my favorite example ever.

0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:30.320
<v Speaker 1>In twenty nineteen, there was a widespread expectation, based on

0:13:30.360 --> 0:13:33.600
<v Speaker 1>the polling, that Labor would win in a very decisive victory,

0:13:33.640 --> 0:13:36.520
<v Speaker 1>and they absolutely did not. The coalition. One that was

0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:39.440
<v Speaker 1>when Scott Morrison famously got up in his victory speech

0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:42.360
<v Speaker 1>and said he's always believed in miracles. I think that

0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:45.760
<v Speaker 1>was the quote, very very famous. The polls, Just to

0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:48.559
<v Speaker 1>give you an idea, the polls were so wrong that actually,

0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:52.720
<v Speaker 1>two days before the election, Sports Bet they paid out

0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:55.719
<v Speaker 1>everyone who had predicted a Labor win because they were

0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:59.120
<v Speaker 1>so confident, crazy that Labor would win based on the polling,

0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:01.960
<v Speaker 1>and then they lost something like six million or five

0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:05.840
<v Speaker 1>million dollars because in the end, obviously Labor didn't win.

0:14:06.200 --> 0:14:09.679
<v Speaker 3>I mean, it's so remarkable, and I think a lot

0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:12.120
<v Speaker 3>of posters around the country have changed the.

0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:13.600
<v Speaker 2>Way that they are polling.

0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:16.840
<v Speaker 3>They have broadened the margin of error, they have accounted

0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:19.680
<v Speaker 3>for what happened then. But still, you know, there have

0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:22.520
<v Speaker 3>been examples since, and it's a really good point. Can

0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:25.880
<v Speaker 3>we trust the polls because right now they are suggesting

0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:29.960
<v Speaker 3>an Anthony Albanizi win a labor majority. We're gonna sit

0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:31.800
<v Speaker 3>here on Monday morning and be able to reflect on

0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:34.560
<v Speaker 3>whether or not the answer to that question is yes.

0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:37.840
<v Speaker 1>Politicians always famously say the only poll that counts is

0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:41.480
<v Speaker 1>on election day, correct their favorite saying, well, Billy, I.

0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:44.760
<v Speaker 3>Think that's a really helpful framework to understand the Big

0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:48.200
<v Speaker 3>night itself, the Big Dance. It's been a long road

0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:51.120
<v Speaker 3>to get here, but thank you for being here every

0:14:51.120 --> 0:14:53.440
<v Speaker 3>step of the way. It's been a pleasure to take

0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:56.800
<v Speaker 3>the audience through the foundations of.

0:14:56.680 --> 0:14:57.760
<v Speaker 2>Our political system.

0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:00.480
<v Speaker 3>We're here at the Daily Odds care so deeply about

0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:04.640
<v Speaker 3>engaging young people in our democratic process and helping you

0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 3>make an informed vote on Saturday, so let us know

0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:10.920
<v Speaker 3>how you go. If you have any last minute questions,

0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:14.200
<v Speaker 3>you can throw them in the Spotify question section.

0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:16.800
<v Speaker 2>Otherwise we'll talk to you on Monday with the results.

0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:22.440
<v Speaker 1>Bye. My name is Lily Madden and I'm a proud

0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:27.280
<v Speaker 1>Arunda Bungelung Kalkutin woman from Gadighl Country. The Daily oz

0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:30.120
<v Speaker 1>acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on the lands of

0:15:30.120 --> 0:15:33.440
<v Speaker 1>the Gadighl people. And pays respect to all Aboriginal and

0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:36.520
<v Speaker 1>Torres Strait Island and nations. We pay our respects to

0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:39.480
<v Speaker 1>the first peoples of these countries, both past and present.