1 00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:04,520 Speaker 1: Already and this is the Daily This is the Daily OS. 2 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 1: Oh now it makes sense. Good morning, and welcome to 3 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 1: the Daily OS. It's Friday, the second of May. I'm belief, 4 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:22,919 Speaker 1: it's Simon's I'm Zara Seidler. The election is finally here. 5 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:26,120 Speaker 1: It is tomorrow, which means that we're at the end 6 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 1: of our Politics one oh one series. So to wrap 7 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 1: up the week, we want to arm you with all 8 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 1: of the information you need to make sense of Election 9 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: night itself. In this episode, we're going to do things 10 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:40,440 Speaker 1: a little bit differently, and we're going to take you 11 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 1: through the number, the words, the moment and the time 12 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: for you to look out for come tomorrow night. 13 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 2: Yeah. 14 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 3: This is something that we developed Billy earlier in the 15 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 3: week when we hosted some Politics in the Pub events, 16 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 3: and anyone that's listening that attended those events, thank you. 17 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 3: We loved meeting you, Billy, and I love talking about politics, 18 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 3: and the fact that we got to do that in 19 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 3: real life. 20 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 1: Was truly a pleasure with a charazin hand. 21 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 2: With a charaz in hand, how could we forget? 22 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 3: But it is just, I think, a really good framework 23 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 3: to understand because there's so much going on in election 24 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 3: night if you tune into one of the TV stations, 25 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:22,400 Speaker 3: there's like graphics thrown around, there are words, the jargon 26 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 3: like things people who pay attention each and every day 27 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 3: might not even understand. And so this is a way 28 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 3: to just distill the information that you need to pay 29 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 3: attention to. So, Billy, let's start with the number first. 30 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 3: What is the magic number that people need to listen 31 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 3: out for. 32 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 1: I feel like we should have a drum roll or something, yeah, 33 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 1: to reveal the number. Producer Elliot role the magic number 34 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 1: is seventy six. So here we're talking about the House 35 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 1: of Representatives. That is where the government is formed. And 36 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 1: in Australia we have one hundred and fifty electorates, which 37 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 1: means that we have one hundred and fifty seats and 38 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:01,640 Speaker 1: in order to form government you need a majority of that. 39 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 1: So one hundred and fifty divided by two seventy five 40 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 1: plus one to reach the majority. A quick, little mass class. 41 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:09,640 Speaker 3: You're saying it with such a smile on your face 42 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 3: because you know that I have struggled through the maths 43 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:12,839 Speaker 3: of it all. 44 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 2: But yes, that is correct. 45 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: I think it's good to walk people through it. So, 46 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:20,240 Speaker 1: so seventy six is how many seats a party needs 47 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 1: to reach in order to form a majority government. So 48 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 1: if you're watching the election tomorrow night, you'll see the 49 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 1: seventy six come up time and time again. If a 50 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:32,679 Speaker 1: party reaches out number, that means election is over. That 51 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 1: party has one. 52 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 3: Okay, So you're sitting at home or you're at an 53 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:39,080 Speaker 3: election party. I don't know if people still have election parties. 54 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 1: Oh, my parents too, and it is a fall off. 55 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:44,639 Speaker 1: It is all they have spoken about for a year. 56 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: They have put more planning into this election night party 57 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: than anything else. 58 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 3: Okay, excellent, So we have proof that election night parties 59 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:53,639 Speaker 3: still exists. So if people are at an election night 60 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 3: party and perhaps the volumes down and people are talking, 61 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 3: but there is need to listen out for that magic 62 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:05,079 Speaker 3: seventy six, okay, And when that happens, a majority has 63 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:08,519 Speaker 3: been reached, the election is called and we know who 64 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 3: has won. 65 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 2: Yes, all right, so that's a number. 66 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 3: Talk me through the word people need to be listening 67 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:17,919 Speaker 3: out for, because, as I said earlier, there are quite 68 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 3: a few words said on election night. 69 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 2: How do you narrow it down. What's the one word 70 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:24,640 Speaker 2: that you think people need to really pay attention to? 71 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 1: Okay, So the word we have chosen is marginal, and 72 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:30,800 Speaker 1: now that is what we use to describe certain seats 73 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 1: that I was talking about before, the seats that we 74 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:36,120 Speaker 1: don't know which way it's going to go, and from 75 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 1: election to election they tend to go either way. Now 76 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: we know which ones are the marginal seats based on 77 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 1: the result from last election and then also from current polling. 78 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 1: There is a technical definition from the AEC which is 79 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: if at the last election the winner won by less 80 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 1: than fifty six percent, then that seat is considered a 81 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:59,120 Speaker 1: marginal seat. So it's literally just about the margin by 82 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 1: which they won the previous election. 83 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 2: Margin, got it? Margin for marginal? 84 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 1: Are you allowed to use the word in the definition 85 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 1: of the word? I think yes. 86 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 2: You would lose an articulation, but I will allow it 87 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 2: this one. 88 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 1: Thank you. So about a third of the one hundred 89 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: and fifty seats in Parliament are marginal, So those are 90 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 1: fifty seats for us to look out for at tomorrow's election. 91 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: But I thought we could go through one each, sar, 92 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 1: do you yes? Putting you on the spot, all right, 93 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: do you have a marginal seat that you have favorite? Yes, 94 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 1: So you've thought about a lot this election. 95 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 3: One that I have been thinking about, and I think 96 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:36,719 Speaker 3: it's because there's been quite a lot of coverage of it. 97 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 3: Is the seat of Dixon. That is Peter Dudden's seat, 98 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 3: so it's the most marginal seat in Queensland, and I 99 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,039 Speaker 3: think that that's a really interesting thing in and of itself, 100 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 3: that the leader of a party could potentially find himself 101 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 3: in a situation where he loses his seat but his 102 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 3: party wins the election. And so I think I'm keeping 103 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:59,840 Speaker 3: a really strong focus on Dixon. There we have Ali France, 104 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 3: who the ALP have put up for election I think 105 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 3: maybe three elections in a row to contest the seat 106 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 3: of Dixon. She has been unsuccessful to date, but she 107 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 3: is looking to win that seat off opposition leader Peter Dubnan. 108 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:15,839 Speaker 3: So that is one that I'll be keeping an eye on. 109 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:16,839 Speaker 3: What about you, Billy, Just. 110 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,480 Speaker 1: Quickly on Dixon. What's so interesting about that is I'm 111 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 1: pretty sure that Peter Dunnan has held that seat since 112 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:25,119 Speaker 1: something like two thousand and one, but throughout that whole time, 113 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:28,719 Speaker 1: so twenty five years now almost, it has been marginal. 114 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 2: Oh interesting. 115 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, So even though you'd think that it's a safe 116 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 1: seat considering how long he has held it. It has 117 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 1: always been a marginal seed, so it's quite amazing that 118 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 1: he has held on to it for so long. 119 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, okay. 120 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 1: My one that I have been paying close attention to 121 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 1: is Kuyong. 122 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 2: Yeah. 123 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:48,479 Speaker 1: That is one of the seats in Melbourne and it 124 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:50,160 Speaker 1: was one of the ones that one of the Teal 125 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 1: independents took from one of the Liberal MP's, quite a 126 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:57,279 Speaker 1: famous Liberal MP in Josh Fridenberg who was the then Treasurer. 127 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 1: She defeated him at the last election. It's since then 128 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:03,920 Speaker 1: been quite a high profile seat and certainly this election 129 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 1: that has remained. I saw a TikTok the other day 130 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,799 Speaker 1: that was from someone who said that if you're saying 131 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 1: this election is boring, you clearly haven't been paying attention 132 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 1: to what is happening in ku Yong. 133 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 2: Agreed. 134 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:16,719 Speaker 1: I don't think we need to get into all of 135 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 1: the drama, but just know there has been so much drama, 136 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 1: and my god, the politics in that electorate that have 137 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 1: been going on have been insane to watch and it 138 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 1: will be absolutely fascinating to see what happens tomorrow night 139 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 1: in Kuyong. That is the one I'm just so interested 140 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 1: to see what happens. 141 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, and it is really interesting because sometimes it's very 142 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:40,600 Speaker 3: clear straight off about poll's close, and you start to 143 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 3: get these early results. And Anthony Green on the ABC, 144 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:47,839 Speaker 3: who's kind of considered the election overlord, it's the key. 145 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 3: It's his last election there, so it's the last time 146 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,679 Speaker 3: he'll be doing it. But he'll call seats quite early 147 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 3: if he's very confident. And so it could be that 148 00:06:56,720 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 3: we are very quickly getting a result from somewhere likeo Young, 149 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 3: or it could be hours and hours and hours or 150 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:03,920 Speaker 3: days and days and days. 151 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: It could if it's if it's really close, then I'm 152 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 1: sure it will take. It won't be instant. 153 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, So that's certainly one to keep an eye on. Billy. 154 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 3: We've talked through the number to keep an ear out for. 155 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 3: We've spoken about the word that people should keep in 156 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 3: the front of their mind. What to you is the 157 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 3: standout moment from any election? 158 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 1: Okay, the moment is the phone call. Now, every single election, 159 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: there will be a phone call between the two leaders 160 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 1: before either of them declare victory or concede, and so 161 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 1: the phone call will be from the person who loses. 162 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: They typically will then call the person who wins and 163 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 1: say I concede, congratulations, You've won the election. And then 164 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: the winner will go out and do their victory speech, 165 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: and often they'll start that speech by saying, I've just 166 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 1: had a phone call from so and so, and I 167 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 1: can now declare victory. 168 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 2: Can you imagine a more awkward phone call? 169 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 3: No, Like I have any of my friends who listen 170 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 3: to this will know my phones permanently on, do not disturb. 171 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,120 Speaker 3: I'm not interested in answering phone calls. So the fear 172 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 3: of phone calls is a starting point. Imagine just having 173 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 3: to say I've lost, You've won, well done. 174 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 1: Also from someone who like, it's not like they've been 175 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 1: friendsout this entire election camp by No. Yeah, and also 176 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 1: a lot of this election has become quite personal between them, 177 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: in the attacks that they direct towards one another. And 178 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 1: so you know, after all of these kind of nastiness, 179 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 1: you then have to call the person say congratulations. 180 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 2: And like, how do they get each other's numbers? 181 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 1: Do you think that they have them their teams? Yeah, 182 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 1: say to your team. 183 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:40,440 Speaker 3: Hand over the number, I'll call him. Hope it goes 184 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 3: to voicemail. 185 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 1: Yes, And this is something that happens at elections around 186 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 1: the world. It's definitely not unique to Australia. I know 187 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: that Joe Biden called Donald Trump before Donald Trump declared victory, 188 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:52,559 Speaker 1: so it's a very common thing. 189 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:56,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, so we are waiting for or not wait, 190 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 3: we are not running for prime minister, but whoever Claire's victory, 191 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 3: we'll only do that when the other usually has conceded. 192 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,440 Speaker 3: We know that that happens via a phone call at 193 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 3: some point during the evening, so that is a good 194 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 3: one to keep an eye on. We have mentioned though, 195 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 3: that we don't really know how long this can all take, 196 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:19,880 Speaker 3: So can you just set up a bit of a 197 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 3: timeline for us for Saturday night? 198 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, so polls close at six pm, no matter what 199 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:28,839 Speaker 1: state you're in, and then the counting immediately begins. Now, 200 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 1: the Australian Electoral Commission, who oversees elections in Australia, they 201 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:34,679 Speaker 1: say that we can start to see results roll in 202 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 1: at about seven pm, particularly from the smaller polling centers, 203 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:41,439 Speaker 1: and then for the medium to bigger size polling centers, 204 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:43,680 Speaker 1: they say that we'll start to see results from about 205 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 1: eight to eight thirty PM. So I think based on 206 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 1: that at about nine pm, I would say that is 207 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 1: the time for you to tune in, and we should 208 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 1: by that time understand kind of what direction this is 209 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 1: going in. If it's really close, it will go for 210 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 1: hours and hours an hour, but again we'll know if 211 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 1: it's really close by about nine pm. 212 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's interesting because in every election around the world, 213 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 3: when you first start to see results come back, it 214 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 3: can swing really strongly one way. But that's just representative 215 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:18,479 Speaker 3: of where those early votes are coming from, not necessary 216 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:22,280 Speaker 3: the direction of the overall vote. It is also interesting 217 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 3: to note, I don't know if people know this, that 218 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:29,320 Speaker 3: early voting doesn't get counted early. So people who send 219 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:31,320 Speaker 3: in postal votes or people that have gone to pre 220 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 3: poll and we know that's a huge percentage of the electorate, 221 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 3: those votes aren't counted any earlier than the ones that are. 222 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:39,719 Speaker 2: Lodged on election day. 223 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,080 Speaker 3: So there's a lot of counting that gets done in 224 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 3: a short period of time, and it's still all done 225 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 3: by humans. 226 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 2: Yes, So there you go, Billy. 227 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 3: We've spoken about when we'll have a sense of what's 228 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 3: going on. You work in the media, though, we are 229 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 3: going to be telling I do. We are going to 230 00:10:57,280 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 3: be telling our audience when the election has been called, 231 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 3: how do we know. 232 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 1: We know from the data that the Australian Electoral Commission 233 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: puts on their website. So they have something called the 234 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 1: tally Room and that is available to every single person. 235 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 1: You can just access it on their website and that 236 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:15,840 Speaker 1: gives you all of the raw data as the votes 237 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 1: are coming in. I think it's updated every ninety seconds 238 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 1: or so, and. 239 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 2: That's persons sitting there entering the data. 240 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: Point well, that will be us not entering it, but 241 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: then looking at it every ninety seconds. And so then 242 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 1: the media including us, go to that tally room and 243 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: use that data to try to understand what is happening 244 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:38,200 Speaker 1: in each electorate. And once a certain number of votes 245 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:41,559 Speaker 1: are called, then you can pretty confidently say whether a 246 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: seat has swung either way. And then again, if enough 247 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 1: seats have been called and one of the parties reaches 248 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 1: seventy six, based on that, a winner will be declared. 249 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 1: But that winner is only declared by the media on 250 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 1: the night, which is kind of a funny thing. The 251 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 1: AEC will never declare the winner on election night because 252 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 1: they have to go through so many of the counting, Yeah, 253 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:04,679 Speaker 1: all of the counting and also so many formal processes. 254 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: Even after that counting is done, so it is quite 255 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 1: a long process, at least for the AEC, but for 256 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,439 Speaker 1: the media, once they have enough of the raw data, 257 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 1: it usually will be called, often by none other than 258 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 1: Anthony Green. 259 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 3: You're just going to say, news outlets across the country 260 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:24,560 Speaker 3: and across the world. During every single election, it's this 261 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 3: tension of when to call it because you know there 262 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:32,079 Speaker 3: can be early results that might radically change through the night. 263 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:34,959 Speaker 3: It's not overly likely, but we do tend to be 264 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 3: a bit more conservative in when we will call the election, 265 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:41,360 Speaker 3: and as you said, Anthony Green is usually the first 266 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 3: to call it officially. But then, as you said, once 267 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 3: that phone calls happen and once a leader gets up, 268 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 3: that's a pretty sure thing. 269 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:52,439 Speaker 2: The election has been called. All right now, believe I. 270 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 3: Want to end on a question which might seem counterproductive, 271 00:12:57,200 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 3: but there is I think a big question linking as 272 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 3: we head into election night because the polls are telling 273 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:07,679 Speaker 3: us one thing. The polls have told us one thing 274 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:10,720 Speaker 3: many times in a row. They might not have been correct. 275 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:13,840 Speaker 3: Can we trust the polls? Will the polls be right? 276 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:16,720 Speaker 1: Yeah? This is the key question. Will the polls be right? 277 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:19,320 Speaker 1: Where you have seen time and time again, not just 278 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:22,679 Speaker 1: in Australia but around the world examples of polls being wrong, 279 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:26,680 Speaker 1: most famously in Australia. This is just my favorite example ever. 280 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:30,320 Speaker 1: In twenty nineteen, there was a widespread expectation, based on 281 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:33,600 Speaker 1: the polling, that Labor would win in a very decisive victory, 282 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 1: and they absolutely did not. The coalition. One that was 283 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:39,440 Speaker 1: when Scott Morrison famously got up in his victory speech 284 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 1: and said he's always believed in miracles. I think that 285 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 1: was the quote, very very famous. The polls, Just to 286 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,559 Speaker 1: give you an idea, the polls were so wrong that actually, 287 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 1: two days before the election, Sports Bet they paid out 288 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:55,719 Speaker 1: everyone who had predicted a Labor win because they were 289 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 1: so confident, crazy that Labor would win based on the polling, 290 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:01,960 Speaker 1: and then they lost something like six million or five 291 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 1: million dollars because in the end, obviously Labor didn't win. 292 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:09,679 Speaker 3: I mean, it's so remarkable, and I think a lot 293 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,120 Speaker 3: of posters around the country have changed the. 294 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 2: Way that they are polling. 295 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 3: They have broadened the margin of error, they have accounted 296 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 3: for what happened then. But still, you know, there have 297 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 3: been examples since, and it's a really good point. Can 298 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:25,880 Speaker 3: we trust the polls because right now they are suggesting 299 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 3: an Anthony Albanizi win a labor majority. We're gonna sit 300 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 3: here on Monday morning and be able to reflect on 301 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 3: whether or not the answer to that question is yes. 302 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 1: Politicians always famously say the only poll that counts is 303 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 1: on election day, correct their favorite saying, well, Billy, I. 304 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 3: Think that's a really helpful framework to understand the Big 305 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 3: night itself, the Big Dance. It's been a long road 306 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 3: to get here, but thank you for being here every 307 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 3: step of the way. It's been a pleasure to take 308 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 3: the audience through the foundations of. 309 00:14:56,680 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 2: Our political system. 310 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 3: We're here at the Daily Odds care so deeply about 311 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 3: engaging young people in our democratic process and helping you 312 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 3: make an informed vote on Saturday, so let us know 313 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 3: how you go. If you have any last minute questions, 314 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 3: you can throw them in the Spotify question section. 315 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 2: Otherwise we'll talk to you on Monday with the results. 316 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 1: Bye. My name is Lily Madden and I'm a proud 317 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 1: Arunda Bungelung Kalkutin woman from Gadighl Country. The Daily oz 318 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 1: acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on the lands of 319 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: the Gadighl people. And pays respect to all Aboriginal and 320 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 1: Torres Strait Island and nations. We pay our respects to 321 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: the first peoples of these countries, both past and present.