WEBVTT - What happens now that Australia’s voted no?

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<v Speaker 1>My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda

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<v Speaker 1>Bunjelung Calcottin woman from Gadighal Country. The Daily oz acknowledges

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<v Speaker 1>that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the

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<v Speaker 1>Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres

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<v Speaker 1>Strait Island and nations. We pay our respects to the

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<v Speaker 1>first peoples of these countries, both past and present.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, Anne, Welcome to the Daily os It's Monday,

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<v Speaker 2>the sixteenth of October. I'm Sam, I'm Zara.

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<v Speaker 3>Good evening.

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<v Speaker 2>We have breaking news tonight.

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<v Speaker 4>The referendum for the Voice to Parliament has been defeated.

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<v Speaker 2>Australia has overwhelmingly said no to the prospect of a

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<v Speaker 2>constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice to Parliament. It's a historic moment

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<v Speaker 2>which some are celebrating.

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<v Speaker 5>The referendum has not been successful and I think that's

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<v Speaker 5>good for our country.

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<v Speaker 2>This was a bad proposal and some are grieving.

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<v Speaker 3>For many, today is a day of sadness. When you

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<v Speaker 3>aim high, sometimes you for sure.

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<v Speaker 2>In today's Deep Dive, Tom and Zara are going to

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<v Speaker 2>discuss what led to this result and what it means

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<v Speaker 2>going forward. But first the headlines.

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<v Speaker 4>Israel's military is preparing for what it describes as the

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<v Speaker 4>next stages of its war with Hummas, which will likely

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<v Speaker 4>include a ground invasion of northern parts of Gaza. Israel

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<v Speaker 4>declared war after Hummas's October seven surprise attacks that have

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<v Speaker 4>since killed one thousand, three hundred Israelis, wounding at least

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<v Speaker 4>another three thousand. More than two two hundred people have

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<v Speaker 4>been killed in Gaza and eight thousand injured. Meanwhile, Foreign

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<v Speaker 4>Minister Penny Wong has announced rescheduled repatriation flights for Australians

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<v Speaker 4>after they were originally canceled due to safety concerns. There

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<v Speaker 4>are one thousand, two hundred and thirty four Australians seeking repatriation.

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<v Speaker 4>We will be bringing you a deep dive on this

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<v Speaker 4>topic tomorrow.

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<v Speaker 2>The center right National Party, in coalition with fellow right

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<v Speaker 2>wing Hardy Act, is set to take power in New

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<v Speaker 2>Zealand following the weekend's election. The parties have been in

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<v Speaker 2>opposition since twenty seventeen, and former and New Zealand CEO

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<v Speaker 2>Christopher Luxen will become the next Prime minister.

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<v Speaker 4>The European Union has asked social media platform x to

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<v Speaker 4>provide information about how it's complying with rules that it

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<v Speaker 4>must not allow the spreading of dis and misinformation and

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<v Speaker 4>hate speech. The request reportedly comes in the wake of

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<v Speaker 4>the Israel Garza conflict. X must respond to the request

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<v Speaker 4>by the eighteenth of October, and the response could lead

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<v Speaker 4>to a broader investigation.

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<v Speaker 2>And today's good news, the University of Texas has made

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<v Speaker 2>a breakthrough in breast cancer research. Scientists discovered the specific

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<v Speaker 2>enzyme found in breast cancer believed to cause cancer associated mutations,

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<v Speaker 2>that has the potential to also be used in new

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<v Speaker 2>therapies to target and kill cancer cells. That is good news.

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<v Speaker 4>For today's deep dive, we're going to be unpacking all

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<v Speaker 4>of the results of this weekend's referendum, and it was

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<v Speaker 4>a massive weekend at that. To help understand what happened,

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<v Speaker 4>I'm joined by tda's political journalist Tom Crowley. Tom, Welcome

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<v Speaker 4>back to the podcast.

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<v Speaker 6>Good Mornings are There's a lot to unpack, the.

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<v Speaker 4>Sure is, so I think that the best place to

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<v Speaker 4>start today is by understanding exactly what happened over the

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<v Speaker 4>weekend and just unpacking. I guess as a starting point

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<v Speaker 4>what the results were.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, So the result, as I'm sure many people have

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<v Speaker 6>already heard was a resounding rejection of an indigenous voice

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<v Speaker 6>to Parliament in Australia's constitution. So the referendum failed. It

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<v Speaker 6>failed in every state. So my recall that for a

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<v Speaker 6>referendum to succeed it needs a majority nationwide and a

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<v Speaker 6>majority in at least four states. Well, it didn't get

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<v Speaker 6>a majority in any state. Got closest in Victoria. It

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<v Speaker 6>also won in the Act, but generally speaking it was

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<v Speaker 6>roundly rejected across the country. I think in terms of

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<v Speaker 6>the voting patterns that we saw, it was the strongest

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<v Speaker 6>yes vote in inner city areas, and then it got

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<v Speaker 6>weaker as you moved to outer suburban areas and was

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<v Speaker 6>particularly weak in rural areas, but then it was strong

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<v Speaker 6>again in remote areas. So the strongest yes vote was

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<v Speaker 6>in Melbourne, really all across suburban Melbourne. In Sydney there

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<v Speaker 6>was a bit of an east west divide. There were

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<v Speaker 6>some areas of inner Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Canberra where

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<v Speaker 6>there was yes vote, and as I mentioned, some remote

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<v Speaker 6>communities in wa of Northern Territory in Queensland in particular,

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<v Speaker 6>where there were strong yes votes in sections of the

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<v Speaker 6>community with a high proportion of First Nations voters, but

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<v Speaker 6>apart from that, it was a very comprehensive story. We're

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<v Speaker 6>looking roughly at a sixty to forty split in favor

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<v Speaker 6>of No across the country, so a fairly comprehensive defeat

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<v Speaker 6>for the referendum.

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<v Speaker 4>Many of us have never voted in a referendum before

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<v Speaker 4>and thus would have woken up on Sunday morning not

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<v Speaker 4>really knowing what happens now. You know, there's no playbook

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<v Speaker 4>for how this plays out. So what happens next in

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<v Speaker 4>terms of the voice where to from here?

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<v Speaker 6>Well, it doesn't happen, is the simple answer, and that's

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<v Speaker 6>the way the Prime Minister certainly is talking about it.

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<v Speaker 6>So certainly there is no constitutional change. Obviously, because the

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<v Speaker 6>referendum has been rejected. The Constitution stays exactly as it was.

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<v Speaker 6>It will not be changed to recognize First Nations people,

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<v Speaker 6>and it won't be changed to add a voice. Parliament

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<v Speaker 6>could and Parliament's always had the ability to legislate a

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<v Speaker 6>voice in normal laws, something that could be added and

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<v Speaker 6>removed at any time. But that's certainly something Parliament could do.

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<v Speaker 6>It doesn't seem that will happen. The Prime Minister's been

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<v Speaker 6>very clear. He spoke on Saturday night and said that

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<v Speaker 6>the Australian people have rejected the idea of a voice

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<v Speaker 6>and that he's not going to seek to pass it

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<v Speaker 6>under normal laws.

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<v Speaker 3>It's now up to all of us to come together

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<v Speaker 3>and find a different way to the same reconciled destination.

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<v Speaker 6>So for now it's it seems that the idea of

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<v Speaker 6>the voice ended on the weekend. In some way. Of course,

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<v Speaker 6>the government has committed to continue to try to close

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<v Speaker 6>the gap, to work on new ways to achieve First

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<v Speaker 6>Nations policies. The Prime Minister said on Saturday night he

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<v Speaker 6>would continue to try to listen in whatever way possible.

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<v Speaker 3>Now government will continue to seek better outcomes for Indigenous

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<v Speaker 3>Australians and their children and the generations to come.

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<v Speaker 6>The Opposition leader Peter Dutton struck a similar tone.

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<v Speaker 5>I will do my utmost to lead with courage and

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<v Speaker 5>to do what is right to implement the practical solutions

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<v Speaker 5>required to improve outcomes and close the gap.

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<v Speaker 6>So I'm sure that in the coming years there will

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<v Speaker 6>be perhaps even in the coming months, more conversation about

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<v Speaker 6>new ways of achieving First Nations policies. But as far

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<v Speaker 6>as a voice in our political system. That idea will

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<v Speaker 6>go no further, I think than last weekend in terms

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<v Speaker 6>of the way forward for First Nations people and First

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<v Speaker 6>Nations leaders, I think that's a more complicated question. Of course.

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<v Speaker 6>The idea of the voice came from First Nations leaders.

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<v Speaker 6>As we said a lot in the last few weeks,

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<v Speaker 6>this was an idea that came from a document called

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<v Speaker 6>the ULARU Statement from the Heart, a statement made in

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<v Speaker 6>twenty seventeen by about two hundred and fifty First Nations leaders.

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<v Speaker 6>For the people who authored that statement and who have

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<v Speaker 6>been pushing for a voice, this is clearly an extremely

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<v Speaker 6>disappointing result, and I suspect for many a very personal rejection.

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<v Speaker 6>And I'm sure there will be more conversations had in

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<v Speaker 6>the First Nation's community to come about what the way

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<v Speaker 6>forward looks like, what is the way to redress historic disadvantage,

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<v Speaker 6>what is the way to achieve justice to close the gaps.

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<v Speaker 6>Those conversations will, no doubt happen, But for now, the

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<v Speaker 6>First Nations people who have been leading the charge for

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<v Speaker 6>a voice have declared a week of mourning, and they've

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<v Speaker 6>said that they won't talk for a week about why

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<v Speaker 6>this result happened, what it meant, what comes next? That

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<v Speaker 6>they will be flying Aboriginal and tires straight island of

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<v Speaker 6>flags half masts and encouraging other people to do the same,

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<v Speaker 6>and taking that time to mourn the result and reflect

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<v Speaker 6>on what was clearly a very significant disappointment for people

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<v Speaker 6>who spent many years campaigning for a voice, and no

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<v Speaker 6>doubt for many people in the first nation's community, taken

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<v Speaker 6>as a personal rejection and a very sad moment Tom.

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<v Speaker 4>In the minutes after the referendum was declared as having failed,

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<v Speaker 4>there was already a raft of analysis that was published

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<v Speaker 4>by every media commentator in the country. What are some

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<v Speaker 4>of these views about why the No campaign succeeded in

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<v Speaker 4>the way that it did.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, it's a really big question, Sarah, and I think

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<v Speaker 6>it's one that we're going to be discussing and debating

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<v Speaker 6>for a very long time, and we'll probably never agree

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<v Speaker 6>on exactly why the result was the way that it was,

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<v Speaker 6>and we'll also never know, right. I think that's important

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<v Speaker 6>to say here. We ask Australians to go into the

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<v Speaker 6>booth and write the words yes or no. We don't

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<v Speaker 6>ask them to write a paragraph explaining their reasoning We

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<v Speaker 6>will never know for sure why the public made the

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<v Speaker 6>decision that it did, and so we need to take

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<v Speaker 6>any sort of interpretation with a grain of salt. The

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<v Speaker 6>first thing to say, though, is that the no case

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<v Speaker 6>usually wins.

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<v Speaker 1>Right.

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<v Speaker 6>Referendums usually fail. We've had forty five now in our history,

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<v Speaker 6>and eight have succeeded. And in part I think that

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<v Speaker 6>is because it is easier to run a no campaign

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<v Speaker 6>than a yes campaign. Just sort of structurally, I think

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<v Speaker 6>of it almost a bit like a courtroom. In a courtroom,

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<v Speaker 6>you have the prosecution trying to prove that someone is guilty.

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<v Speaker 6>The defense doesn't have to prove that they are innocent.

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<v Speaker 6>They just have to create doubt. They just have to

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<v Speaker 6>create doubt and guilt. It's the same thing with a

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<v Speaker 6>yes and a no campaign, right. The ES campaign has

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<v Speaker 6>to convince you to support an idea. The no campaign

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<v Speaker 6>doesn't need you to support them. They just need to

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<v Speaker 6>create doubt about the idea. And in a sense, that

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<v Speaker 6>is an easier task, and it's one that the no

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<v Speaker 6>campaign I think did very effectively. To me, probably the

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<v Speaker 6>most effective line in the entire referendum debate was this

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<v Speaker 6>line about detail, and it was something that Peter Dutton

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<v Speaker 6>said for really for eighteen months he said it really consistently.

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<v Speaker 6>You know, there's not enough detail, we don't know how

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<v Speaker 6>this thing's going to work, and you know, offering no

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<v Speaker 6>comment about the merits of the line. But it was

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<v Speaker 6>a very effective bit of political messaging because it was simple,

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<v Speaker 6>it was sharp. People heard it. It created again that

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<v Speaker 6>doubt and confusion and I think then by contrast, the

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<v Speaker 6>Prime Minister's answer to that question was a bit of

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<v Speaker 6>a mouthful. The Prime Minister was saying, well, a lot

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<v Speaker 6>of the details will be worked out in legislation. We

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<v Speaker 6>don't have a full version of it. We do have

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<v Speaker 6>these principles.

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<v Speaker 5>You know.

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<v Speaker 6>It was a longer answer and I think it wasn't

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<v Speaker 6>again just in terms of political messaging and understanding that

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<v Speaker 6>a lot of voters will only hear, you know, the

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<v Speaker 6>very high level messages from the ES and the No

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<v Speaker 6>campaigns about what this is about. I think that that

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<v Speaker 6>was very effective from a long way back and creating

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<v Speaker 6>confusion and you could see that in the opinion polls,

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<v Speaker 6>and that's where I think is the most important place

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<v Speaker 6>to look, because if you go back a year ago,

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<v Speaker 6>sixty four percent of Australians said that they were planning

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<v Speaker 6>to support a voice that's well and truly enough for

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<v Speaker 6>this referendum to have succeeded. And I think the best

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<v Speaker 6>place to look to see this is the opinion polls,

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<v Speaker 6>right because a year ago you had sixty four percent

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<v Speaker 6>of Australians saying yes, I planned to support a voice

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<v Speaker 6>and we've ended up at about forty And so the

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<v Speaker 6>question of how was the referendum lost is how we

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<v Speaker 6>got from sixty four for yes to forty fo yes.

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<v Speaker 6>And I think that was a story of confusion and

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<v Speaker 6>detail that was it was about the time that Peter

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<v Speaker 6>Dutton started talking in that way and started moving towards

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<v Speaker 6>a no campaign that those numbers started to shift. And

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<v Speaker 6>so I think that that's why I view that as

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<v Speaker 6>the key factor. There are there are a lot of

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<v Speaker 6>factors here, clearly also, you know there were It's worth

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<v Speaker 6>acknowledging this really directly that there were elements of really

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<v Speaker 6>horrible racism in the campaign. As tda's Daniel Oserto reported

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<v Speaker 6>last week, calls from First Nations people to the national

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<v Speaker 6>hotline that deals with issues of racism and abuse and

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<v Speaker 6>trauma doubled this year. There was clearly a very significant

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<v Speaker 6>spike in racism, and that is obviously a part of

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<v Speaker 6>this debate that's going to be I think the most

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<v Speaker 6>troubling to many people and a really difficult thing to

0:12:31.080 --> 0:12:33.960
<v Speaker 6>come to terms with. But again, I think when you

0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:35.920
<v Speaker 6>look at the fact that sixty four percent of people

0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:38.680
<v Speaker 6>a year ago said they were willing to support this thing,

0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:42.680
<v Speaker 6>were willing to support this sort of general gesture towards

0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:45.560
<v Speaker 6>a voice for First Nations people, but then were convinced

0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:48.440
<v Speaker 6>in the political fray to change their minds. To me,

0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:50.400
<v Speaker 6>that's really where the referendum was one and lost.

0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:52.760
<v Speaker 4>And of course we know that no referendum has ever

0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:56.199
<v Speaker 4>been one without bipartisan support. So the minute that we

0:12:56.280 --> 0:12:59.920
<v Speaker 4>saw the opposition come out and support the no case,

0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:05.319
<v Speaker 4>the task for Anthony Albanesi became significantly harder. Absolutely so, Tom,

0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:07.920
<v Speaker 4>if we take a step back, what does the result

0:13:08.280 --> 0:13:11.439
<v Speaker 4>mean for the future of this country.

0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:12.720
<v Speaker 6>I think it's going to take us time to be

0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:16.720
<v Speaker 6>able to answer that question properly. Zara, I think clearly,

0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:19.520
<v Speaker 6>in the short term for the large number of First

0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:23.319
<v Speaker 6>Nations people who have spent years advocating for a voice,

0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:26.920
<v Speaker 6>this is very painful setback that that language of the

0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:32.040
<v Speaker 6>Week of Mourning that we heard on the weekend suggests,

0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:34.680
<v Speaker 6>you know how painful this is for people who've put

0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:37.840
<v Speaker 6>their hearts into pushing this idea, who've seen it as

0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:39.760
<v Speaker 6>a way to begin to close the gaps and address

0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:44.640
<v Speaker 6>Indigenous disadvantage. This will feel a very personal rejection and

0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:48.080
<v Speaker 6>a very personal loss for a lot of First Nations people,

0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:51.000
<v Speaker 6>and it's going to take some time for all of us,

0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:54.480
<v Speaker 6>I think, to grapple with that over the longer term, though.

0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:57.160
<v Speaker 6>I think this is one thing the Prime Minister said

0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.520
<v Speaker 6>a bit was that at least we have spent a

0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:03.679
<v Speaker 6>year or more than a year talking about Indigenous disadvantage,

0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:06.200
<v Speaker 6>talking about the status quo. And this is something that

0:14:06.200 --> 0:14:08.440
<v Speaker 6>I've said a lot as well in our reporting, that

0:14:08.520 --> 0:14:11.760
<v Speaker 6>everybody agrees that the status quo is broken. They might

0:14:11.800 --> 0:14:13.960
<v Speaker 6>have different ways to emphasize it or different ways of

0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:17.280
<v Speaker 6>talking about it, but pretty much everybody agrees that when

0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:20.040
<v Speaker 6>it comes to outcomes for First Nations people in this country,

0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:24.280
<v Speaker 6>something's got to change. That momentum, I don't think will

0:14:24.320 --> 0:14:27.880
<v Speaker 6>go anywhere, and I think anybody who cares about these

0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:31.040
<v Speaker 6>issues wants to see change that is going to continue,

0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:34.280
<v Speaker 6>and it's going to continue with new generations coming through

0:14:34.280 --> 0:14:37.560
<v Speaker 6>into leadership as well, and I think at TDA we're

0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:40.480
<v Speaker 6>often we're talking mostly to young people. Were very aware

0:14:40.520 --> 0:14:43.000
<v Speaker 6>of how young people think. This is another one of

0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:44.840
<v Speaker 6>those many examples that we can point to in our

0:14:44.840 --> 0:14:46.880
<v Speaker 6>politics at the moment where the views of young people,

0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:50.720
<v Speaker 6>who all evidence suggests very clearly voted yes on the weekend.

0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:53.040
<v Speaker 6>The views of young people don't necessarily align with the

0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:56.320
<v Speaker 6>rest of the views of the rest of Australia, and

0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:58.200
<v Speaker 6>that might mean that we don't get the change that

0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:00.800
<v Speaker 6>young people might have voted for now well, but it

0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:04.440
<v Speaker 6>doesn't mean that it's over because you know, ultimately young

0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:07.360
<v Speaker 6>people win the battle of time, and as this generation

0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:11.400
<v Speaker 6>I think gets older, gets into positions of leadership, these

0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:15.040
<v Speaker 6>conversations won't go away. These issues will be returned to

0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:17.600
<v Speaker 6>and the level of enthusiasm that we saw from you know,

0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:19.760
<v Speaker 6>I mean forty sixty is a resounding result, but it's

0:15:19.760 --> 0:15:23.040
<v Speaker 6>still millions of people voting either way, and so I

0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:25.400
<v Speaker 6>think it's and millions of people I think on both

0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:29.080
<v Speaker 6>sides who agreed that the status quo when it comes

0:15:29.120 --> 0:15:31.480
<v Speaker 6>to first nation's issues needs to change. So you know,

0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:34.520
<v Speaker 6>at some point clearly First Nations leaders at the moment,

0:15:34.600 --> 0:15:37.600
<v Speaker 6>you will need that time to mourn, and I don't

0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:40.640
<v Speaker 6>think we can expect them to be immediately offering us

0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:42.520
<v Speaker 6>answers for where to go next. I think in a

0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:45.880
<v Speaker 6>sense that's up to all of us. But these issues

0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:48.080
<v Speaker 6>won't go away. We'll be back here again, and I

0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:50.880
<v Speaker 6>think we'll keep talking about these gaps until they close.

0:15:51.200 --> 0:15:53.920
<v Speaker 4>Tom thank you so much for jumping on today and

0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:57.760
<v Speaker 4>indeed for your excellent reporting over the last couple of weeks.

0:15:57.880 --> 0:15:59.200
<v Speaker 4>We are very lucky to have you.

0:15:59.320 --> 0:16:00.000
<v Speaker 6>Thanks Sarah.

0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:02.680
<v Speaker 4>If you need support with any of the themes raised

0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:05.440
<v Speaker 4>in this episode, you can call one three Yarn. They

0:16:05.480 --> 0:16:08.360
<v Speaker 4>can connect you with an Aboriginal or Torus Straight Islander

0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:10.440
<v Speaker 4>Crisis supporter twenty four hours a day.

0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:14.800
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening to this episode of The Daily OS

0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:17.720
<v Speaker 2>and for listening to our Special Voice series over the

0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:20.600
<v Speaker 2>last week. If you learn something from this episode and

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0:16:34.520 --> 0:16:35.880
<v Speaker 2>have a good start to the week,