1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:03,240 Speaker 1: Jersey and Amanda gem Nation. 2 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 2: I think what we heard in the news Trump's President 3 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:09,240 Speaker 2: Trump's twenty five percent tariffs on steel and aluminium imports 4 00:00:09,440 --> 00:00:12,720 Speaker 2: have taken effect overnight. The EU and Canada have both 5 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:16,800 Speaker 2: responded with their own retaliatory shocks, shots and actions. Anthony 6 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 2: Albernizi has come out swinging, saying Australia included in these 7 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 2: tariffs is unjustified. What does it all mean? Who pays what? 8 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 2: To help us dissect, we're joined by the chief economist 9 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 2: at the Australian Institute, Greg Jericho. 10 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 1: Greg. High morning guys, Greg. 11 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:34,520 Speaker 2: Now, for the average person at home and the person 12 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 2: who's not so average, what does it all mean? Can 13 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 2: you break this down in the simplest terms? 14 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:44,640 Speaker 1: Yep, simpless terms is tariffs are paid by the importers, 15 00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 1: so we're not paying Australia is not going to be 16 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:51,520 Speaker 1: paying twenty five percent more for our steeler alibilium. America 17 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 1: is going to be paid twenty five percent more for 18 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 1: all of its imports of steel and aluminium. So kind 19 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 1: of for most people you're in Australia, you're not even 20 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 1: really going to notice it, and you then might think, 21 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 1: for why is Trump trying to make things more expensive 22 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 1: for America. That's a dead good question. Putting aside the 23 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 1: fact that he might be a bit of a ludatic. 24 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 1: It's he's trying to make it harder for US manufacturers 25 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 1: to import stuff so that they'll use American stuff. But 26 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:27,119 Speaker 1: the problem is Americans don't make it enough still an 27 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 1: aluminum they need ours, they need imports from Canada, and 28 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 1: the problem is now they have to pay more for it. 29 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,479 Speaker 3: And that's two percent we're talking about that we send 30 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 3: steel and oliminion to America in the on the worldwide scheme. 31 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean, we don't really export a lot 32 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 1: of steel or aluminium to America compared to other places, 33 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 1: so it's kind of weird that we have been included 34 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 1: in this. But it's I think it's all about sort 35 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 1: of Trump trying to look a bit tough, and someone 36 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: got in his ear that Australia were flooding the market 37 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 1: with a bit of steel, which is a bit weird 38 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 1: where we're sort of, you know, maybe two percent of 39 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 1: the entire market. That's a flood. And so you know, 40 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 1: clearly he wasn't in the mood to make a deal. 41 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: But also remember, yeah, it's going to hurt a little 42 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:23,919 Speaker 1: bit Australian steel manufacturers and alimenium manufacturers, but overall it's 43 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: a pretty small segment of our exports. And also, you know, 44 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: even a valuminium America is a big market, but not 45 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 1: a huge one, maybe you know, five to seven eight percent. 46 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: Still it's a bit bigger, but you know, there are 47 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 1: a lot of other markets around there. And the other 48 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: thing is it's not like anyone in the US is 49 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: going to go, well, Australian steel is really expensive, I'll 50 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,839 Speaker 1: go elsewhere. Everywhere else they go is expensive as well. 51 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:53,239 Speaker 1: So this tariff really is going to hurt Americans a 52 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 1: lot more than it's going to hurt anyone else in 53 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:56,399 Speaker 1: certainly Australians. 54 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:58,760 Speaker 2: It's become a bit of a political football. Peter Dutton 55 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:01,280 Speaker 2: has said that the Prime Minister didn't secure a second 56 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 2: phone call with President Trump and therefore we're in this position. 57 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 2: Is this a personal slight? Could this have been handled 58 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:09,239 Speaker 2: differently and would the outcome be different? 59 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:13,679 Speaker 1: Oh? Look, I think it's very dangerous to suggest we 60 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 1: could try and work out what the heck's going on 61 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 1: inside Trump's brain. I mean, justin today was the first 62 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:22,959 Speaker 1: person to go to meet Trump that hasn't worked out well. 63 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:25,799 Speaker 1: You know, laedims Zelenski went to see Trump that did 64 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: not work out well. Yeah, Keirs Darma sat down and 65 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 1: even gave Trump a letter from King Charles that he 66 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: still didn't get around his tariff's. Look, it's Trump does 67 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 1: want you to go and play fealty to him and 68 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: in a sense beg but that doesn't mean he actually 69 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 1: is going to do anything. And I think one of 70 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 1: the problems as well is he's been advised by people 71 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 1: who actually think trump tariffs are a good idea, and 72 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 1: so he's kind of start believing it is. And you know, 73 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 1: I don't think there's much anyone could have done at 74 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 1: this point. He's really just decided that tariffs are great, 75 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: even though it's actually going to possibly start sending America 76 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 1: into a recession. 77 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 3: I saw a stand up comedian and he did a 78 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 3: hold routine. Donald Trump in the White House is like 79 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 3: having a horse in the hospital. You know, everyone looks 80 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 3: at it. They don't know what to do. The horse 81 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 3: doesn't know what it's doing there, but you just always 82 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 3: following it. And the scariest thing is when the horse 83 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 3: goes quiet, because you go, where's the horse. What's happened. 84 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 2: Yes, it's a scary thing to witness, isn't it. 85 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:29,160 Speaker 3: But that's reassuring Gregs. Really at the end of the day, 86 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:31,040 Speaker 3: we're going to be okay out of this. 87 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:35,039 Speaker 1: Oh look, I mean, if you're making steel around a million, 88 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: you're going to worry is your buyers in America going 89 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 1: to have to buy a bit less of what you 90 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:46,160 Speaker 1: sell them because they can't afford it. So that's going 91 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 1: to hurt them. But you know, this is not a 92 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:52,719 Speaker 1: catastrophe for Australia. And certainly if you're thinking I'm building 93 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 1: my home, I'm going to need some mallion minimum stuff, No, 94 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 1: you're not paying anything more because Australia hasn't changed it 95 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 1: in tariff. The worry is that Trump's going to get 96 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 1: a taste of this and start thinking, oh, let's put 97 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:11,280 Speaker 1: tariffs on on beef, on lamb, on pharmaceuticals and all 98 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: these other things that do start having a real impact 99 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 1: on our export companies, and that starts having a Constantina 100 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 1: effect where the rest of the world almost sort of 101 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 1: follows America into a bit of a slow down in 102 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 1: a recession. But from this it's really more I think 103 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:32,040 Speaker 1: about the politics of oh you should have got a 104 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:36,599 Speaker 1: deal or not, rather than the actual economics. It will 105 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,480 Speaker 1: have a little bit of an impact on those particular industries. 106 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 1: But again, you know, we really need to sort of 107 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 1: calm down a bit. Trump's really doing more damage to 108 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 1: his own people than he really is doing to Australians. 109 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:52,480 Speaker 3: Greg Well explained, thank you very. 110 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:54,840 Speaker 1: Much now, guys, always good to chat. 111 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 3: Thank you for each business. 112 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:56,600 Speaker 1: What there you go? 113 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:58,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, and Green, I didn't realize that with the I 114 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 3: thought it was just a blanket tariff on everything at 115 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 3: the moment, and our wine and all that stuff. 116 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 2: Okay, So but also let's become and every other country 117 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 2: has been and it's not just it's not just that person. 118 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 2: So if but if American still users look to where 119 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 2: they're going to get it all until America's up and 120 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 2: running and can produce more. Still, they're not going to 121 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 2: get from anywhere else either because their tariff doesn't. 122 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 3: Well, should get ground level in some sort of aluminion 123 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 3: mining or a smelter or something. 124 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 2: I think Australians are already doing. 125 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:32,279 Speaker 3: And I'm saying that's you know, why would we were just. 126 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 2: Heard that the only industry is being here. But have 127 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:36,839 Speaker 2: you heard a word that Greg just said. Thank you Greg, 128 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 2: Thank you Greg. Greg at least is the chief economist 129 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:41,560 Speaker 2: at the Australian Institute. Don't listen to Jonesy. 130 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 3: Yes, I agree with that advice. 131 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:45,520 Speaker 2: You're the horse in the hospital.