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Speaker 1: My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda

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Speaker 1: Bungelung Caalcuttin woman from Gadighl Country. The Daily oz acknowledges

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Speaker 1: that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the

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Speaker 1: Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres

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Speaker 1: Strait Island and nations. We pay our respects to the

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Speaker 1: first peoples of these countries, both past and present.

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Speaker 2: Good morning and welcome to the Daily oz. Happy Monday.

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Speaker 2: It's the seventeenth of April. I'm Sam, I'm Zara. The

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Speaker 2: Bureau of Meteorology or Man the Bomb. The Bomb's Back

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Speaker 2: says Australia is under an El Nino watch after dealing

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Speaker 2: with La Nina and floods for the past few years.

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Speaker 2: We can't help but wonder what El Nina has in

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Speaker 2: store for us. We're going to let you know in

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Speaker 2: the deep Dive. But first, Sarah, what's making headlines this morning?

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Speaker 3: Trigger warning? This story discusses sexual assault. Former NRL player

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Speaker 3: Jared Hayne has been jailed while here await sentencing for

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Speaker 3: his guilty sexual assault verdict. Earlier this month, Haine was

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Speaker 3: found guilty by a Sydney jury over an incident that

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Speaker 3: occurred in Newcastle in twenty eighteen was the third trial

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Speaker 3: for this same incident.

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Speaker 2: Foreign ministers from G seven nations have landed in Japan

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Speaker 2: for the first of a number of G seven meetings

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Speaker 2: to be held in the country over the next month,

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Speaker 2: including a meeting of the leaders in Hiroshima in a

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Speaker 2: few weeks time. Security officials in Japan have sought to

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Speaker 2: reassure the member states of their security whilst in the

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Speaker 2: country after an explosive was detonated at a speech Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister Kishada was delivering on Saturday. No one was injured

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Speaker 2: in the explosion, and there continues to be a battle

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Speaker 2: for power in Sudan after the military and parliamentary forces

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Speaker 2: entered into a violent conflict, killing at least fifty six civilians.

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Speaker 2: Armed clashes occurred at the parliament, presidential Palace and army headquarters,

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Speaker 2: with a military group representing Sauddan's parliament called the Rapid

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Speaker 2: Support Forces, who are currently in power, being challenged by

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Speaker 2: the nation's army. Sudan has been governed by military generals

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Speaker 2: since a coup in twenty.

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Speaker 3: Twenty one, and the good news Ghana has become the

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Speaker 3: first country in the world to approve a new malaria vaccine.

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Speaker 3: The R twenty one vaccine was developed by researchers at

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Speaker 3: Oxford University, who called the approval a critical step to

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Speaker 3: reducing malaria related deaths around the world. The vaccine has

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Speaker 3: been approved for use in children aged five months to

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Speaker 3: three years old, with trials also being undertaken in the UK,

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Speaker 3: Thailand and other African countries.

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Speaker 2: Tzari know how obsessed I am with weather news. So

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Speaker 2: this is right in my wheelhouse, and I wanted to

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Speaker 2: tell you about the new warning from the Bureau of Meteorology.

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Speaker 2: They say Australia is under an El Nino watch, and

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Speaker 2: what that means is that there's about a fifty percent

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Speaker 2: chance of an El Nino event occurring this year.

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Speaker 3: Sam Zara, do you want to know a fun fact

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Speaker 3: about me?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, for three years.

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Speaker 3: Do you know something else?

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Speaker 2: You don't know what L means.

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Speaker 3: I can't speak a single word of Spanish. What I

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Speaker 3: do know is that for a very long time we

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Speaker 3: were talking about La Nina, which was a different weather pattern,

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Speaker 3: but now we're talking about El Nino. So can you

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Speaker 3: just differentiate the two from one another?

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Speaker 2: I can in thirty seconds. First I need to tell

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Speaker 2: you about ensign so. ENSO is short for the El

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Speaker 2: Nino Southern Oscillation. There's lots of elements that contribute to

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Speaker 2: the Earth's weather, but ENSO is the strongest factor. And

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Speaker 2: think about Enzo as a spectrum. Think about one of

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Speaker 2: those boards that you drive past on road trips through

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Speaker 2: regional Australia which gives you an indication of fire danger.

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Speaker 2: An ENZO sign would have La Nina on the left,

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Speaker 2: El Nino on the right, and a neutral state between them. Now,

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Speaker 2: typically the way an Enzo phase occurs is that it

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Speaker 2: will start to the left on La Nina and it

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Speaker 2: takes between two day years to get to El Nino

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Speaker 2: and swing all the way back again.

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Speaker 3: Okay, So if we think of it as a spectrum

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Speaker 3: from Lanninna to El Nino, can we start with Lannina

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Speaker 3: and can you just explain what that is?

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Speaker 1: So?

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Speaker 2: Lenina happens when water on our end of the Pacific

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Speaker 2: is unusually warm, warming up a particular area of the ocean,

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Speaker 2: and with higher ocean temperatures, that means there's more evaporation,

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Speaker 2: more water rising into the sky. So water leaving the

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Speaker 2: ocean makes more clouds, and clouds makes more rain. In

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Speaker 2: the Western Pacific, and so what that means for you

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Speaker 2: and I is things like higher risks of flooding, lower

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Speaker 2: daytime temperatures, and more tropical cyclones.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so then what about El Nina.

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Speaker 2: Well, El Nino happens when the water on the other

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Speaker 2: end of the Pacific warms up and pulls the rain

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Speaker 2: from Australia. And what that means is it makes Australia

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Speaker 2: drier and hotter. Now, right now, we're in the middle

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Speaker 2: part of that spectrum where neither in an El Nino

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Speaker 2: or a La Nina event neutral territory. Yeah, but according

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Speaker 2: to the Bureau of Meteorology, there are indications that an

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Speaker 2: El Nino event is coming. It's not guaranteed, but the

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Speaker 2: climate model suggest it could occur later this year and

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Speaker 2: be relatively severe.

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Speaker 3: Okay. So if that prediction comes to fruition and it

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Speaker 3: is a relatively severe El Ninja, what does that actually

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Speaker 3: look like for us?

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Speaker 2: Well, it looks like less rainfall through spring, winter and summer,

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Speaker 2: especially on the East coast of Australia. But this has

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Speaker 2: knock on effects and it means that there'll be higher

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Speaker 2: average temperatures because there's less cloud cover and the sun

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Speaker 2: is hotter, and as well as these higher temperatures, there's

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Speaker 2: also more individual days of extreme heat, so that's where

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Speaker 2: we might see discussions about sport being canceled over summer

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Speaker 2: or drought or even bushfires.

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Speaker 3: In the last few years of Lea Nina, I feel

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Speaker 3: like we've just seen flood after flood. We heard, you know,

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Speaker 3: one in one hundred years, five times in one year.

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Speaker 3: Are we about to see some of the worst fires

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Speaker 3: then with El Ninja?

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Speaker 2: Well, I did ask this question to David Caroly from

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Speaker 2: the Climate Council on this podcast a little while ago,

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Speaker 2: and I'll throw the episode into the show notes if

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Speaker 2: you want to have another listen to that. But our

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Speaker 2: conversation was all about a report from the Climate Council

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Speaker 2: on this exact question, and essentially what the report warned

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Speaker 2: us about is how a period of Larnina like the

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Speaker 2: one we've just had can actually worsen the risk of

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Speaker 2: grass fires as we move into El Nino. And the

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Speaker 2: way that works is this huge amount of rain that

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Speaker 2: we've seen in the last couple of years during the

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Speaker 2: La Nina event has created these ideal growing conditions for

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Speaker 2: fast growing grass and shrubs. So when Larnina ends, the

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Speaker 2: grass and shrubs have a chance to dry off and

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Speaker 2: get hot in the sun, and that makes excellent fuel

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Speaker 2: for a potential fire. So when an El Nino comes along, hot,

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Speaker 2: dry weather means that all it takes is a spark

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Speaker 2: to set off the fuel growth that's accumulated during the

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Speaker 2: Lundinya period.

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Speaker 3: I feel like we can't have these conversations about weather

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Speaker 3: without talking about a changing climate. So is our changing

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Speaker 3: climate actually impacting the way that we're experiencing La Nina

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Speaker 3: and El Nino if they are what appears to be

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Speaker 3: normal weather patterns.

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Speaker 2: There's some really interesting research from the CSIRO where scientists

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Speaker 2: examine seven years of data on enso and that's the

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Speaker 2: oscillation between La Nina and El Nino. But then they

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Speaker 2: overlaid that with historical data from climate models, so projections

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Speaker 2: of what will happen in the future. And what they

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Speaker 2: found is that changes to ocean surface temperature is going

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Speaker 2: to be detectable as soon as twenty thirty and that's

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Speaker 2: going to result in stronger El Nino events and stronger

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Speaker 2: La Nina events as a consequence, and that will have

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Speaker 2: a huge impact on our lives. We're thinking about food production,

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Speaker 2: water sources, and even our human health. There's actually research

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Speaker 2: from NASA about how an El Nino event in twenty

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Speaker 2: fifteen to twenty sixteen triggered disease outbreaks all over the world,

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Speaker 2: and basically how that happened was increased rainfall in East

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Speaker 2: Africa during that El Nina period led to sewage contaminating

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Speaker 2: water sources, which led to an outbreak of cholera. So

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Speaker 2: that all might seem like a geography lesson, but what

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Speaker 2: we're learning is that these weather patterns really impact us

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Speaker 2: and impact humanity in different ways, and the whole hope

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Speaker 2: is that by better understanding them, the better equips we

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Speaker 2: can become to understand our changing climate moving forward.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for joining us on the Daily Oz. If you

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Speaker 3: learned something from today's episode, don't forget to hit subscribe

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Speaker 3: so there's a TVA episode waiting for you every weekday morning.

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Speaker 3: We'll be back again tomorrow morning, but until then, have

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Speaker 3: a brilliant day.