WEBVTT - Is NATO close to war with Russia?

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<v Speaker 1>Already and this is the daily This is the Dailias.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh now it makes sense. Good morning, and welcome to

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<v Speaker 2>the Daily OS. It's Wednesday, the seventeenth of September. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>Sam Kazlowski.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Emma Gillespie.

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<v Speaker 2>In the past two weeks, both Poland and Romania have

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<v Speaker 2>reported Russian drones flying in their airspace. Importantly, NATO forces

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<v Speaker 2>shot down Russian aircraft for the first time in the

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<v Speaker 2>alliance's seventy five year history. Now both countries and neighbors

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<v Speaker 2>of Ukraine, which continues to face Russian air strikes and

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<v Speaker 2>ground offensives as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues.

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<v Speaker 2>But there's a key difference between an attack on Ukraine

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<v Speaker 2>and an attack on Poland or Romania, and that's NATO.

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<v Speaker 2>On today's podcast, we're going to look at what makes

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<v Speaker 2>Russian activity in Poland and Romania so different, the idea

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<v Speaker 2>of collective defense and some of the broader implications here.

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<v Speaker 1>Sam, this is a really interesting topic that we're chatting

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<v Speaker 1>through today and I'm really keen to learn more. But

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<v Speaker 1>before we get into the kind of specifics of what's

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<v Speaker 1>happened in the past week over countries like Romania and Poland.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we need to break down a bit more

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<v Speaker 1>about NATO to understand what it is and how it

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<v Speaker 1>actually functions.

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<v Speaker 2>So here's where my mind went with this question that

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<v Speaker 2>I knew was going to come. Because this is an

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<v Speaker 2>important part is we could do it as a straight

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<v Speaker 2>politics explain now, but we could also do it like

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<v Speaker 2>we're at school, because we always say that these world

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<v Speaker 2>leaders are kind of like kids fighting in the playground.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's go through it in a school metaphor. Okay, okay. So, NATO,

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<v Speaker 2>which is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is a military

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<v Speaker 2>alliance of thirty two European and North American countries. It

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<v Speaker 2>was founded just after World War Two and originally designed

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<v Speaker 2>to counter the Soviet threat during the Cold War. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>in the playground, if you and your thirty one other

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<v Speaker 2>friends make a promise to always stick up for each

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<v Speaker 2>other against bullies, no matter who that bully was, they

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<v Speaker 2>basically went a bit further and promised that if someone

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<v Speaker 2>picks on one of them, all the others will help

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<v Speaker 2>protect them. Okay, Now, one important thing to remember here

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<v Speaker 2>is that Ukraine is not a member of NATO. It's

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<v Speaker 2>not in that list of thirty.

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<v Speaker 1>Two, Ukraine goes to a different school.

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<v Speaker 2>It goes to a different school. It's been actually requesting

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<v Speaker 2>to join for a long time now. Instead, NATO classifies

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<v Speaker 2>Ukraine as a NATO partner country, which basically means they're

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<v Speaker 2>friends with the group in the playground. But if there's

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<v Speaker 2>only one seat left at the back of the bus,

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<v Speaker 2>a NATO member country is going to get it over Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 2>but they'll kind of go into bat for each other.

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<v Speaker 2>As a general principle, Okay, got it.

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<v Speaker 1>So the core kind of principle of NATO, the North

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<v Speaker 1>Atlantic Treaty Organization is that an attack on one ally

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<v Speaker 1>is an attack on all a thirty two person or party,

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<v Speaker 1>friendship or alliance. That's a lot of people. They've got

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<v Speaker 1>to be some rules around making this work, right.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And that's the Treaty of NATO, And we refer

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<v Speaker 2>to the parts of that treaty as articles. And the

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<v Speaker 2>two articles to really pay attention to today are articles

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<v Speaker 2>four and five. So Article four is like when one

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<v Speaker 2>friend thinks they're getting bullied or something worrying happens to

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<v Speaker 2>them and they tell their friends, Hey, I think we

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<v Speaker 2>need to talk about this. So it's when one country

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<v Speaker 2>says to all the others, I'm worried about my safety.

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<v Speaker 2>Can we just sit down and have a discussion about

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<v Speaker 2>what to do? Yep? Article five is the actual promise

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<v Speaker 2>to help. That's like saying, in the playground, someone has

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<v Speaker 2>hit me, so we're all going to come and help

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<v Speaker 2>you out now, Okay.

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<v Speaker 1>So Article four is more about maybe the perceived threat

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<v Speaker 1>or increased aggressions, whereas Article five is about this has

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<v Speaker 1>literally happened. There has been a breach of one ally,

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<v Speaker 1>and therefore now we are all in it.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. And the really confusing part though, is what it

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<v Speaker 2>means and what help means. So Article five says that

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<v Speaker 2>each country will help by quote taking such action as

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<v Speaker 2>it deems necessary. That basically means each country decides for

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<v Speaker 2>itself what kind of support it provides. So it doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>mean that all thirty two countries go to war. Some

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<v Speaker 2>might send troops, others might offer money or diplomatic backing.

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<v Speaker 2>It really depends on each country's own decision making. And

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<v Speaker 2>so I guess in the playground it would be you

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<v Speaker 2>could go and tell the teacher, or you could get

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<v Speaker 2>directly involved in the fight.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay. So Article five, then it seems kind of almost

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<v Speaker 1>deliberately vague in its wording to give each country their

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<v Speaker 1>own scope to determine their response. Has it actually ever

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<v Speaker 1>been used? Has Article five ever been triggered by a

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<v Speaker 1>breach of a NATO member?

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<v Speaker 2>So only once, and that's remarkable, since nineteen forty nine,

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<v Speaker 2>and that one time was straight after nine to eleven.

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<v Speaker 2>So the US, who is a member of NATO, they

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<v Speaker 2>didn't actually even ask for it. NATO's Secretary General suggested

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<v Speaker 2>it as a show of solidarity after the attacks on

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<v Speaker 2>the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, and the response

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<v Speaker 2>involved NATO's surveillance planes patrolling US territory and NATO ships

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<v Speaker 2>standing by for deployment in the Mediterranean, there's the closest

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<v Speaker 2>body of water to Afghanistan. But NATO didn't actually participate

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<v Speaker 2>in the Afghanistan invasion itself, and that's because the US

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<v Speaker 2>preferred to work with individual countries like Australia rather than

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<v Speaker 2>dealing with this whole alliance and this whole body.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, fascinating, So it sounds more like in that instance

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<v Speaker 1>that the NATO alliance was kind of posturing its power,

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<v Speaker 1>this sort of aloof presence of you know, we have

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<v Speaker 1>these ships we have these planes we're contributing to surveillance,

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<v Speaker 1>but from.

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<v Speaker 2>A distance exactly, and there hasn't been besides that, another

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<v Speaker 2>example for us to point to to see a variation

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<v Speaker 2>in that response.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, but then in terms of Article four, which speaks

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<v Speaker 1>to the perception of a threat or an escalating threat,

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<v Speaker 1>that has been invoked much more recently, right, Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>Well a couple of days ago, and it was invoked

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<v Speaker 2>by Poland after Poland alleged Russian drones violated its airspace.

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<v Speaker 2>It's significant to invoke Article four, but it's definitely not

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<v Speaker 2>a dramatic escalation. Any NATO member can invoke Article four

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<v Speaker 2>if they think their security is threatened. And interestingly, when

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<v Speaker 2>I was looking into what that actually looks like, NATO

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<v Speaker 2>countries meet regularly anyway, so this was kind of an

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<v Speaker 2>agenda item to their regular meeting of we need to

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<v Speaker 2>talk about this, and I think it went right up

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<v Speaker 2>the top of the agenda, right. But it's been used

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<v Speaker 2>eight times before, so Turkia has used it several times

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<v Speaker 2>over Syria, and eight NATO countries used it together when

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<v Speaker 2>Russia invaded Ukraine back in twenty twenty two. Now, Article

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<v Speaker 2>four doesn't mean that any country actually has to do anything.

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<v Speaker 2>It's just formal talks about a growing threat.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so a little more frequently used that article five,

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<v Speaker 1>but still only eight times since nineteen thirty nine. It's significant.

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<v Speaker 1>But let's now get into sam what has actually happened

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<v Speaker 1>over the past week. Now we have all this knowledge,

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<v Speaker 1>we understand the playground politics. Nice walk me through it.

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<v Speaker 2>So we go to September nine, last week. That was

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<v Speaker 2>when Russia launched a massive drone attack on Ukraine, and

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<v Speaker 2>nineteen Russian drones ended up flying into Polish airspace. Poland

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<v Speaker 2>and Ukraine share of border. Poland immediately shut down four

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<v Speaker 2>major airports in the country and scrambled their fighter jets.

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<v Speaker 2>And this became NATO's real first test of working together

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<v Speaker 2>to shoot down enemy aircraft. So Polish F sixteens fighter jets,

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<v Speaker 2>they teamed up with Dutch F thirty fives and they

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<v Speaker 2>were backed up by Italian and German forces.

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<v Speaker 1>That's quite a big response.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it was short and sharp because by the morning

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<v Speaker 2>of September ten, NATO forces had shot down four of

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<v Speaker 2>the drones. There were no other drones in the airspace.

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<v Speaker 2>The rest of them either crashed or were found scattered

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<v Speaker 2>across Polish territory.

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<v Speaker 1>I remember when that new story broke last week and

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<v Speaker 1>was kind of splashed all over the TVs and new sites,

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<v Speaker 1>and it felt a little bit scary straightaway, like, oh,

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<v Speaker 1>my god, is Russia attacking Poland? But then Russia came

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<v Speaker 1>out and kind of said, oh, these were drones that

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<v Speaker 1>strayed into Polish territory.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Well, the Foreign Minister said these were groundless accusations,

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<v Speaker 2>they had no interest in any escalation, and the Defense

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<v Speaker 2>Ministry even made the point that its drones couldn't actually

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<v Speaker 2>reach Poland because it was too far. That was all

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<v Speaker 2>pretty easily debunked. Investigators found that the crash drones had

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<v Speaker 2>been fitted with extra fuel tanks specifically for the further distance,

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<v Speaker 2>and the wreckage had identifying features that directly tied the

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<v Speaker 2>drones to Russia's military.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, So analysts then suggesting that rather than this

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<v Speaker 1>kind of accidental straying into Polish territory, it might have

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<v Speaker 1>been a lot more of a posturing by Russia. Is

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<v Speaker 1>that when Poland then decided to invoke Article four.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it was only a couple of hours after the

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<v Speaker 2>drones were in the air. So the Polish PM said

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<v Speaker 2>this brought Poland quote the closest we have been to

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<v Speaker 2>open conflicts since World War II. NATO's boss said this

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<v Speaker 2>wasn't an isolated incident, and the EU called it the

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<v Speaker 2>most serious European airspace violation by Russia since its war

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<v Speaker 2>with Ukraine began. And so late last week NATO held

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<v Speaker 2>talks under Article four at its headquarters in Belgium. And

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<v Speaker 2>I think another way to frame that posturing idea that

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<v Speaker 2>you're talking about is it sounds like what a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of the response is centered around. Is this idea of

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<v Speaker 2>Russia testing the waters? What can they do that invokes

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<v Speaker 2>an Article four response but not an Article five response.

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<v Speaker 1>Because it is worth mentioning here that Putin has been

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<v Speaker 1>a vocal critic, a long standing critic of NATO. He

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<v Speaker 1>repeatedly talks about, you know, NATO threatening Russia's own self determination,

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<v Speaker 1>and he has threatened Ukraine with you know, Ceasepine negotiations

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<v Speaker 1>that they cannot include NATO membership.

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<v Speaker 2>He really doesn't want NATO or a NATO member on

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<v Speaker 2>his doorstep. And so if you think about the Russian

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<v Speaker 2>border as that doorstep, he wants NATO to be as

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<v Speaker 2>far away from that as.

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<v Speaker 1>Possible right, And so that's Poland. We had that happen,

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<v Speaker 1>and this pretty you know, widespread condemnation from across the

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<v Speaker 1>EU and NATO's strong language against Russia's actions. But a

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<v Speaker 1>few days later, something very similar took place in Romania,

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<v Speaker 1>which is a NATO member too.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, Yes, over the weekend, a Russian drone flew ten

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<v Speaker 2>kilometers into Romanian territory, hung around in the airspace for

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<v Speaker 2>about fifty minutes, and this time it was Romanian and

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<v Speaker 2>German fighter jets that tracked it but didn't shoot it down,

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<v Speaker 2>And that's because they were worried about the collateral damage

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<v Speaker 2>that falling drones may cause on civilian community below in Romania.

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<v Speaker 2>Now Romania is a NATO country, So that's the airspace

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<v Speaker 2>of two NATO countries violated in seven days.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so a lot that's been going on. But Russia's

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<v Speaker 1>invasion of Ukraine was several years ago, now, twenty twenty two.

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<v Speaker 1>This conflict has been ongoing. Has this kind of thing

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<v Speaker 1>happened frequently over the course of that conflict? Are we

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<v Speaker 1>talking about a kind of new development entirely in the course.

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<v Speaker 2>Of this war. I think a lot of people are

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<v Speaker 2>trying to figure out in this conversation and whether this

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<v Speaker 2>is something they should sit up and take notice too,

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<v Speaker 2>because it's really different, and it's a bit of a

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<v Speaker 2>yes no answer, because since the invasion of Ukraine, NATO

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<v Speaker 2>says there's been over one hundred and fifty incidents of

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<v Speaker 2>what they call hybrid operations in NATO territory and that

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<v Speaker 2>has escalated in their frequency as the years have passed.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so I am not a military or geopolitical expert.

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<v Speaker 1>What is a hybrid operations?

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<v Speaker 2>Neither am I, but some really helpful resources on the

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<v Speaker 2>Internet were so hybrid operations are basically the hostile stuff

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<v Speaker 2>that falls short of actual war. So Russia can cause

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<v Speaker 2>damage still by these acts. It can still test NATO's

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<v Speaker 2>responses without knowing they're about to trigger Article five. So

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<v Speaker 2>we're talking here about cyber attacks on power grids, disinformation

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<v Speaker 2>being spread online, cutting Internet cables under the sea, and

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<v Speaker 2>they definitely all cause real problems, but they are tricky

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<v Speaker 2>to respond to with traditional military force. It's not the

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<v Speaker 2>kind of thing that an army can respond too quickly.

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<v Speaker 2>And so, as I said before, this idea that Russia's

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<v Speaker 2>trying to find where NATO's line is in terms of

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<v Speaker 2>evoking a response. It is the first time though that

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<v Speaker 2>drones in another country's airspace, let alone two other countries,

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<v Speaker 2>has happened in such a short period of time.

0:12:56.800 --> 0:13:02.200
<v Speaker 1>Right, So two breaches of NATO members airspace in one week.

0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:05.680
<v Speaker 1>NATO since you know, basically doubling down on its condemnation

0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:10.440
<v Speaker 1>against Russia for these aggressions. Let's say there is an

0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:14.840
<v Speaker 1>escalation here that Russia invades more airspace of more NATO members,

0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:18.120
<v Speaker 1>or it you know, goes back to Poland and Romania

0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:21.240
<v Speaker 1>and threatens them more extensively.

0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:23.920
<v Speaker 2>Or a drone actually lands in you know, exactly the

0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:25.239
<v Speaker 2>territory of another country.

0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:30.199
<v Speaker 1>Advice into a territory. What happens for NATO as a

0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:33.880
<v Speaker 1>body to take the conversation from Article four to Article.

0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:38.240
<v Speaker 2>Five, So they would sit down quite quickly and invoke

0:13:38.520 --> 0:13:41.240
<v Speaker 2>Article five. It would be the second occasion, as we've said,

0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:44.760
<v Speaker 2>since nineteen forty nine. And they need consensus, really, they

0:13:44.800 --> 0:13:48.080
<v Speaker 2>need all thirty two members to agree that a military

0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:50.800
<v Speaker 2>response is about to happen and what the nature of

0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:53.400
<v Speaker 2>that response would look like. And that's not something that

0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:55.960
<v Speaker 2>we should presume is going to be easy to achieve.

0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:59.280
<v Speaker 2>You have to remember that when the organization was established

0:13:59.320 --> 0:14:01.920
<v Speaker 2>back in the forty there were twelve. Now it's thirty two.

0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:05.600
<v Speaker 2>There are about four or five countries in Europe, including Ukraine,

0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:08.480
<v Speaker 2>who want entry into NATO, So it could get even bigger,

0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:12.240
<v Speaker 2>and I guess it theoretically means that any member could

0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:17.240
<v Speaker 2>actually block action, and that could get complicated. One point

0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:19.760
<v Speaker 2>to remember is the US and the US in all of.

0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:21.840
<v Speaker 1>I was going to say, just because this is a

0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:25.000
<v Speaker 1>military pact, it's not a political pact per se, it

0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:28.240
<v Speaker 1>doesn't mean that all governments are aligned on the same agenda.

0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:30.360
<v Speaker 1>And you can't ignore the US in that conversation.

0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:34.760
<v Speaker 2>No, so the US are not for Ukraine being in NATO.

0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:37.640
<v Speaker 2>And the reason for that across many presidents, not just

0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:41.520
<v Speaker 2>President Trump, both Democrats and Republican is that they want

0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:44.600
<v Speaker 2>to avoid the situation where American troops and Russian troops

0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:47.040
<v Speaker 2>are facing off, because that scene is kind of the

0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:49.560
<v Speaker 2>worst case scenario, and so the fear there would be

0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:52.440
<v Speaker 2>that if Ukraine was in NATO and then Ukraine got hit,

0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:54.520
<v Speaker 2>the US would be obliged to go in and back

0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:56.720
<v Speaker 2>them up. That would lead to a direct confrontation.

0:14:57.120 --> 0:15:00.920
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, but NATO has gotten bigger. We had Sweden join.

0:15:01.320 --> 0:15:06.880
<v Speaker 1>Recently its membership has expanded. Finland as well joined, which

0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:11.120
<v Speaker 1>increased the kind of NATO land border around Russia. But

0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:14.920
<v Speaker 1>Ukraine obviously has the very real and live threat of

0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:19.000
<v Speaker 1>an ongoing conflict. As we speak, sam, where does this

0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:22.640
<v Speaker 1>leave us? Where do we go from here? What happens next?

0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:25.120
<v Speaker 2>Well, I think we have some answers, but then we

0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:28.280
<v Speaker 2>have some new questions. So the answer that we have

0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:31.520
<v Speaker 2>is that NATO are ready to work together, and we

0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:33.840
<v Speaker 2>saw that with some of the kind of combined fighter

0:15:33.920 --> 0:15:38.800
<v Speaker 2>jet operations that were scattering the drones and responding in lifetime,

0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:43.479
<v Speaker 2>Germany's being particularly present in those operations, same with the Netherlands,

0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:47.680
<v Speaker 2>and Russia learned then that just flying a drone over

0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:50.760
<v Speaker 2>those sorts of countries will lead to a response. So

0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:53.800
<v Speaker 2>they kind of tested the line and perhaps put their

0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:56.080
<v Speaker 2>toe a little bit over it in terms of a

0:15:56.160 --> 0:15:59.480
<v Speaker 2>non response. But the big question that is still there

0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:03.520
<v Speaker 2>is how many violations, even if they're smaller ones, we'd

0:16:03.560 --> 0:16:07.080
<v Speaker 2>actually count as an armed attack that requires Article five.

0:16:07.280 --> 0:16:10.280
<v Speaker 1>When do you cross that line from hybrid operations to

0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:15.000
<v Speaker 1>accidental or posturing moments to an offensive.

0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:18.560
<v Speaker 2>If it's two in a week, it's article four. You

0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:21.160
<v Speaker 2>know where is that line? Is it ten? Is it twenty?

0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:24.080
<v Speaker 2>Is it three? We don't really know. It's not our

0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:26.240
<v Speaker 2>job you and I to figure that one out. We'll

0:16:26.280 --> 0:16:30.400
<v Speaker 2>leave it to the pros. But it's definitely a heightened

0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:33.000
<v Speaker 2>temperature in that part of the world, more so than

0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:34.280
<v Speaker 2>it was seven days ago. Yeah.

0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:37.560
<v Speaker 1>Fascinating stuff and as always, we will continue to keep

0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:40.160
<v Speaker 1>a close eye on this one and cover it over

0:16:40.320 --> 0:16:41.960
<v Speaker 1>on the Daily OL's feed as well as here on

0:16:42.040 --> 0:16:44.200
<v Speaker 1>the podcast. Thank you Sam for taking us through that.

0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:46.640
<v Speaker 2>Thanks Sam, and thank you for listening.

0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:48.880
<v Speaker 1>To today's episode, or thanks for watching if you're over

0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:51.080
<v Speaker 1>on our YouTube. We'll be back a little bit later

0:16:51.200 --> 0:16:53.960
<v Speaker 1>with your evening news headlines, but until then, have a

0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:54.440
<v Speaker 1>great day.

0:16:58.640 --> 0:17:01.680
<v Speaker 2>My name is Lily Madden. I'm a proud Arunda Banjelung

0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:06.080
<v Speaker 2>Kalkadin woman from Gadighl country. The Daily oz acknowledges that

0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:08.640
<v Speaker 2>this podcast is recorded on the lands of the Gadighl

0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:12.000
<v Speaker 2>people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and torrest Rate

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<v Speaker 2>island and nations. We pay our respects to the first

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<v Speaker 2>peoples of these countries, both past and present.