1 00:00:00,520 --> 00:00:04,359 Speaker 1: Already and this is the daily This is the Dailias. 2 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 2: Oh now it makes sense. Good morning, and welcome to 3 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 2: the Daily OS. It's Wednesday, the seventeenth of September. I'm 4 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:19,599 Speaker 2: Sam Kazlowski. 5 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:20,760 Speaker 1: I'm Emma Gillespie. 6 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 2: In the past two weeks, both Poland and Romania have 7 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 2: reported Russian drones flying in their airspace. Importantly, NATO forces 8 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 2: shot down Russian aircraft for the first time in the 9 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 2: alliance's seventy five year history. Now both countries and neighbors 10 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 2: of Ukraine, which continues to face Russian air strikes and 11 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 2: ground offensives as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. 12 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 2: But there's a key difference between an attack on Ukraine 13 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:50,880 Speaker 2: and an attack on Poland or Romania, and that's NATO. 14 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 2: On today's podcast, we're going to look at what makes 15 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 2: Russian activity in Poland and Romania so different, the idea 16 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 2: of collective defense and some of the broader implications here. 17 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 1: Sam, this is a really interesting topic that we're chatting 18 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 1: through today and I'm really keen to learn more. But 19 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 1: before we get into the kind of specifics of what's 20 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 1: happened in the past week over countries like Romania and Poland. 21 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 1: I think we need to break down a bit more 22 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 1: about NATO to understand what it is and how it 23 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 1: actually functions. 24 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 2: So here's where my mind went with this question that 25 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:30,160 Speaker 2: I knew was going to come. Because this is an 26 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 2: important part is we could do it as a straight 27 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 2: politics explain now, but we could also do it like 28 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 2: we're at school, because we always say that these world 29 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 2: leaders are kind of like kids fighting in the playground. 30 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:46,559 Speaker 2: So let's go through it in a school metaphor. Okay, okay. So, NATO, 31 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 2: which is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is a military 32 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 2: alliance of thirty two European and North American countries. It 33 00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 2: was founded just after World War Two and originally designed 34 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 2: to counter the Soviet threat during the Cold War. Now, 35 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 2: in the playground, if you and your thirty one other 36 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 2: friends make a promise to always stick up for each 37 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 2: other against bullies, no matter who that bully was, they 38 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:14,959 Speaker 2: basically went a bit further and promised that if someone 39 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,799 Speaker 2: picks on one of them, all the others will help 40 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 2: protect them. Okay, Now, one important thing to remember here 41 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 2: is that Ukraine is not a member of NATO. It's 42 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:25,639 Speaker 2: not in that list of thirty. 43 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 1: Two, Ukraine goes to a different school. 44 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:29,080 Speaker 2: It goes to a different school. It's been actually requesting 45 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 2: to join for a long time now. Instead, NATO classifies 46 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 2: Ukraine as a NATO partner country, which basically means they're 47 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 2: friends with the group in the playground. But if there's 48 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 2: only one seat left at the back of the bus, 49 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 2: a NATO member country is going to get it over Ukraine, 50 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 2: but they'll kind of go into bat for each other. 51 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 2: As a general principle, Okay, got it. 52 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 1: So the core kind of principle of NATO, the North 53 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 1: Atlantic Treaty Organization is that an attack on one ally 54 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: is an attack on all a thirty two person or party, 55 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:05,920 Speaker 1: friendship or alliance. That's a lot of people. They've got 56 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,239 Speaker 1: to be some rules around making this work, right. 57 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:10,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's the Treaty of NATO, And we refer 58 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:13,079 Speaker 2: to the parts of that treaty as articles. And the 59 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 2: two articles to really pay attention to today are articles 60 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:19,480 Speaker 2: four and five. So Article four is like when one 61 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:22,799 Speaker 2: friend thinks they're getting bullied or something worrying happens to 62 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:24,959 Speaker 2: them and they tell their friends, Hey, I think we 63 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 2: need to talk about this. So it's when one country 64 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 2: says to all the others, I'm worried about my safety. 65 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 2: Can we just sit down and have a discussion about 66 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 2: what to do? Yep? Article five is the actual promise 67 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 2: to help. That's like saying, in the playground, someone has 68 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 2: hit me, so we're all going to come and help 69 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 2: you out now, Okay. 70 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 1: So Article four is more about maybe the perceived threat 71 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 1: or increased aggressions, whereas Article five is about this has 72 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 1: literally happened. There has been a breach of one ally, 73 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: and therefore now we are all in it. 74 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 2: Yeah. And the really confusing part though, is what it 75 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 2: means and what help means. So Article five says that 76 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 2: each country will help by quote taking such action as 77 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 2: it deems necessary. That basically means each country decides for 78 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 2: itself what kind of support it provides. So it doesn't 79 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 2: mean that all thirty two countries go to war. Some 80 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 2: might send troops, others might offer money or diplomatic backing. 81 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 2: It really depends on each country's own decision making. And 82 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 2: so I guess in the playground it would be you 83 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:30,720 Speaker 2: could go and tell the teacher, or you could get 84 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 2: directly involved in the fight. 85 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:35,360 Speaker 1: Okay. So Article five, then it seems kind of almost 86 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:40,280 Speaker 1: deliberately vague in its wording to give each country their 87 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 1: own scope to determine their response. Has it actually ever 88 00:04:44,920 --> 00:04:48,360 Speaker 1: been used? Has Article five ever been triggered by a 89 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 1: breach of a NATO member? 90 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:54,160 Speaker 2: So only once, and that's remarkable, since nineteen forty nine, 91 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 2: and that one time was straight after nine to eleven. 92 00:04:57,200 --> 00:05:00,159 Speaker 2: So the US, who is a member of NATO, they 93 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 2: didn't actually even ask for it. NATO's Secretary General suggested 94 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 2: it as a show of solidarity after the attacks on 95 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:10,279 Speaker 2: the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, and the response 96 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:15,599 Speaker 2: involved NATO's surveillance planes patrolling US territory and NATO ships 97 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:19,160 Speaker 2: standing by for deployment in the Mediterranean, there's the closest 98 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 2: body of water to Afghanistan. But NATO didn't actually participate 99 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 2: in the Afghanistan invasion itself, and that's because the US 100 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 2: preferred to work with individual countries like Australia rather than 101 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 2: dealing with this whole alliance and this whole body. 102 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 1: Okay, fascinating, So it sounds more like in that instance 103 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: that the NATO alliance was kind of posturing its power, 104 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 1: this sort of aloof presence of you know, we have 105 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 1: these ships we have these planes we're contributing to surveillance, 106 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 1: but from. 107 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 2: A distance exactly, and there hasn't been besides that, another 108 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 2: example for us to point to to see a variation 109 00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:57,839 Speaker 2: in that response. 110 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 1: Okay, but then in terms of Article four, which speaks 111 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 1: to the perception of a threat or an escalating threat, 112 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 1: that has been invoked much more recently, right, Yeah. 113 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:10,479 Speaker 2: Well a couple of days ago, and it was invoked 114 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 2: by Poland after Poland alleged Russian drones violated its airspace. 115 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 2: It's significant to invoke Article four, but it's definitely not 116 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 2: a dramatic escalation. Any NATO member can invoke Article four 117 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:26,840 Speaker 2: if they think their security is threatened. And interestingly, when 118 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 2: I was looking into what that actually looks like, NATO 119 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:33,760 Speaker 2: countries meet regularly anyway, so this was kind of an 120 00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 2: agenda item to their regular meeting of we need to 121 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 2: talk about this, and I think it went right up 122 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 2: the top of the agenda, right. But it's been used 123 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 2: eight times before, so Turkia has used it several times 124 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 2: over Syria, and eight NATO countries used it together when 125 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 2: Russia invaded Ukraine back in twenty twenty two. Now, Article 126 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 2: four doesn't mean that any country actually has to do anything. 127 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:58,839 Speaker 2: It's just formal talks about a growing threat. 128 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:02,480 Speaker 1: Okay, so a little more frequently used that article five, 129 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 1: but still only eight times since nineteen thirty nine. It's significant. 130 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 1: But let's now get into sam what has actually happened 131 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: over the past week. Now we have all this knowledge, 132 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 1: we understand the playground politics. Nice walk me through it. 133 00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 2: So we go to September nine, last week. That was 134 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 2: when Russia launched a massive drone attack on Ukraine, and 135 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 2: nineteen Russian drones ended up flying into Polish airspace. Poland 136 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 2: and Ukraine share of border. Poland immediately shut down four 137 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 2: major airports in the country and scrambled their fighter jets. 138 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 2: And this became NATO's real first test of working together 139 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 2: to shoot down enemy aircraft. So Polish F sixteens fighter jets, 140 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 2: they teamed up with Dutch F thirty fives and they 141 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 2: were backed up by Italian and German forces. 142 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:52,040 Speaker 1: That's quite a big response. 143 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, it was short and sharp because by the morning 144 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 2: of September ten, NATO forces had shot down four of 145 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 2: the drones. There were no other drones in the airspace. 146 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 2: The rest of them either crashed or were found scattered 147 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 2: across Polish territory. 148 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 1: I remember when that new story broke last week and 149 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 1: was kind of splashed all over the TVs and new sites, 150 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 1: and it felt a little bit scary straightaway, like, oh, 151 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: my god, is Russia attacking Poland? But then Russia came 152 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 1: out and kind of said, oh, these were drones that 153 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: strayed into Polish territory. 154 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, the Foreign Minister said these were groundless accusations, 155 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 2: they had no interest in any escalation, and the Defense 156 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 2: Ministry even made the point that its drones couldn't actually 157 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 2: reach Poland because it was too far. That was all 158 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 2: pretty easily debunked. Investigators found that the crash drones had 159 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 2: been fitted with extra fuel tanks specifically for the further distance, 160 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:50,559 Speaker 2: and the wreckage had identifying features that directly tied the 161 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 2: drones to Russia's military. 162 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:55,959 Speaker 1: All right, So analysts then suggesting that rather than this 163 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:59,640 Speaker 1: kind of accidental straying into Polish territory, it might have 164 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 1: been a lot more of a posturing by Russia. Is 165 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 1: that when Poland then decided to invoke Article four. 166 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:09,839 Speaker 2: Yeah, it was only a couple of hours after the 167 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:13,000 Speaker 2: drones were in the air. So the Polish PM said 168 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 2: this brought Poland quote the closest we have been to 169 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:20,079 Speaker 2: open conflicts since World War II. NATO's boss said this 170 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 2: wasn't an isolated incident, and the EU called it the 171 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:27,719 Speaker 2: most serious European airspace violation by Russia since its war 172 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:31,320 Speaker 2: with Ukraine began. And so late last week NATO held 173 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:35,319 Speaker 2: talks under Article four at its headquarters in Belgium. And 174 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,719 Speaker 2: I think another way to frame that posturing idea that 175 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 2: you're talking about is it sounds like what a lot 176 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:44,439 Speaker 2: of the response is centered around. Is this idea of 177 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 2: Russia testing the waters? What can they do that invokes 178 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 2: an Article four response but not an Article five response. 179 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 1: Because it is worth mentioning here that Putin has been 180 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 1: a vocal critic, a long standing critic of NATO. He 181 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 1: repeatedly talks about, you know, NATO threatening Russia's own self determination, 182 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 1: and he has threatened Ukraine with you know, Ceasepine negotiations 183 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: that they cannot include NATO membership. 184 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:15,760 Speaker 2: He really doesn't want NATO or a NATO member on 185 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:18,200 Speaker 2: his doorstep. And so if you think about the Russian 186 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 2: border as that doorstep, he wants NATO to be as 187 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:22,200 Speaker 2: far away from that as. 188 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: Possible right, And so that's Poland. We had that happen, 189 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:30,079 Speaker 1: and this pretty you know, widespread condemnation from across the 190 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:34,559 Speaker 1: EU and NATO's strong language against Russia's actions. But a 191 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 1: few days later, something very similar took place in Romania, 192 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 1: which is a NATO member too. 193 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 2: Right, Yes, over the weekend, a Russian drone flew ten 194 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:46,679 Speaker 2: kilometers into Romanian territory, hung around in the airspace for 195 00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 2: about fifty minutes, and this time it was Romanian and 196 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 2: German fighter jets that tracked it but didn't shoot it down, 197 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 2: And that's because they were worried about the collateral damage 198 00:10:56,960 --> 00:11:01,680 Speaker 2: that falling drones may cause on civilian community below in Romania. 199 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 2: Now Romania is a NATO country, So that's the airspace 200 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 2: of two NATO countries violated in seven days. 201 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 1: Okay, so a lot that's been going on. But Russia's 202 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 1: invasion of Ukraine was several years ago, now, twenty twenty two. 203 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,719 Speaker 1: This conflict has been ongoing. Has this kind of thing 204 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 1: happened frequently over the course of that conflict? Are we 205 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 1: talking about a kind of new development entirely in the course. 206 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 2: Of this war. I think a lot of people are 207 00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:32,199 Speaker 2: trying to figure out in this conversation and whether this 208 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 2: is something they should sit up and take notice too, 209 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 2: because it's really different, and it's a bit of a 210 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:40,920 Speaker 2: yes no answer, because since the invasion of Ukraine, NATO 211 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:43,599 Speaker 2: says there's been over one hundred and fifty incidents of 212 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 2: what they call hybrid operations in NATO territory and that 213 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 2: has escalated in their frequency as the years have passed. 214 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 1: Okay, so I am not a military or geopolitical expert. 215 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 1: What is a hybrid operations? 216 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:03,079 Speaker 2: Neither am I, but some really helpful resources on the 217 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 2: Internet were so hybrid operations are basically the hostile stuff 218 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:11,439 Speaker 2: that falls short of actual war. So Russia can cause 219 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 2: damage still by these acts. It can still test NATO's 220 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 2: responses without knowing they're about to trigger Article five. So 221 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 2: we're talking here about cyber attacks on power grids, disinformation 222 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 2: being spread online, cutting Internet cables under the sea, and 223 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:31,920 Speaker 2: they definitely all cause real problems, but they are tricky 224 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 2: to respond to with traditional military force. It's not the 225 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 2: kind of thing that an army can respond too quickly. 226 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,880 Speaker 2: And so, as I said before, this idea that Russia's 227 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 2: trying to find where NATO's line is in terms of 228 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:48,439 Speaker 2: evoking a response. It is the first time though that 229 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 2: drones in another country's airspace, let alone two other countries, 230 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 2: has happened in such a short period of time. 231 00:12:56,800 --> 00:13:02,200 Speaker 1: Right, So two breaches of NATO members airspace in one week. 232 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:05,680 Speaker 1: NATO since you know, basically doubling down on its condemnation 233 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:10,440 Speaker 1: against Russia for these aggressions. Let's say there is an 234 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:14,840 Speaker 1: escalation here that Russia invades more airspace of more NATO members, 235 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 1: or it you know, goes back to Poland and Romania 236 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 1: and threatens them more extensively. 237 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 2: Or a drone actually lands in you know, exactly the 238 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:25,239 Speaker 2: territory of another country. 239 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:30,199 Speaker 1: Advice into a territory. What happens for NATO as a 240 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 1: body to take the conversation from Article four to Article. 241 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 2: Five, So they would sit down quite quickly and invoke 242 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 2: Article five. It would be the second occasion, as we've said, 243 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 2: since nineteen forty nine. And they need consensus, really, they 244 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:48,080 Speaker 2: need all thirty two members to agree that a military 245 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:50,800 Speaker 2: response is about to happen and what the nature of 246 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 2: that response would look like. And that's not something that 247 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:55,960 Speaker 2: we should presume is going to be easy to achieve. 248 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 2: You have to remember that when the organization was established 249 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,920 Speaker 2: back in the forty there were twelve. Now it's thirty two. 250 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 2: There are about four or five countries in Europe, including Ukraine, 251 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 2: who want entry into NATO, So it could get even bigger, 252 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 2: and I guess it theoretically means that any member could 253 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:17,240 Speaker 2: actually block action, and that could get complicated. One point 254 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 2: to remember is the US and the US in all of. 255 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 1: I was going to say, just because this is a 256 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 1: military pact, it's not a political pact per se, it 257 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 1: doesn't mean that all governments are aligned on the same agenda. 258 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: And you can't ignore the US in that conversation. 259 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 2: No, so the US are not for Ukraine being in NATO. 260 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 2: And the reason for that across many presidents, not just 261 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 2: President Trump, both Democrats and Republican is that they want 262 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 2: to avoid the situation where American troops and Russian troops 263 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 2: are facing off, because that scene is kind of the 264 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 2: worst case scenario, and so the fear there would be 265 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 2: that if Ukraine was in NATO and then Ukraine got hit, 266 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 2: the US would be obliged to go in and back 267 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 2: them up. That would lead to a direct confrontation. 268 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, but NATO has gotten bigger. We had Sweden join. 269 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:06,880 Speaker 1: Recently its membership has expanded. Finland as well joined, which 270 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 1: increased the kind of NATO land border around Russia. But 271 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 1: Ukraine obviously has the very real and live threat of 272 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 1: an ongoing conflict. As we speak, sam, where does this 273 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 1: leave us? Where do we go from here? What happens next? 274 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 2: Well, I think we have some answers, but then we 275 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 2: have some new questions. So the answer that we have 276 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 2: is that NATO are ready to work together, and we 277 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 2: saw that with some of the kind of combined fighter 278 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 2: jet operations that were scattering the drones and responding in lifetime, 279 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:43,479 Speaker 2: Germany's being particularly present in those operations, same with the Netherlands, 280 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 2: and Russia learned then that just flying a drone over 281 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 2: those sorts of countries will lead to a response. So 282 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 2: they kind of tested the line and perhaps put their 283 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 2: toe a little bit over it in terms of a 284 00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 2: non response. But the big question that is still there 285 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 2: is how many violations, even if they're smaller ones, we'd 286 00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 2: actually count as an armed attack that requires Article five. 287 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 1: When do you cross that line from hybrid operations to 288 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 1: accidental or posturing moments to an offensive. 289 00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:18,560 Speaker 2: If it's two in a week, it's article four. You 290 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 2: know where is that line? Is it ten? Is it twenty? 291 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 2: Is it three? We don't really know. It's not our 292 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 2: job you and I to figure that one out. We'll 293 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 2: leave it to the pros. But it's definitely a heightened 294 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,000 Speaker 2: temperature in that part of the world, more so than 295 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:34,280 Speaker 2: it was seven days ago. Yeah. 296 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 1: Fascinating stuff and as always, we will continue to keep 297 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 1: a close eye on this one and cover it over 298 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: on the Daily OL's feed as well as here on 299 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 1: the podcast. Thank you Sam for taking us through that. 300 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 2: Thanks Sam, and thank you for listening. 301 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 1: To today's episode, or thanks for watching if you're over 302 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:51,080 Speaker 1: on our YouTube. We'll be back a little bit later 303 00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 1: with your evening news headlines, but until then, have a 304 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:54,440 Speaker 1: great day. 305 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 2: My name is Lily Madden. I'm a proud Arunda Banjelung 306 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 2: Kalkadin woman from Gadighl country. The Daily oz acknowledges that 307 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,640 Speaker 2: this podcast is recorded on the lands of the Gadighl 308 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 2: people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and torrest Rate 309 00:17:12,040 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 2: island and nations. We pay our respects to the first 310 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:17,479 Speaker 2: peoples of these countries, both past and present.