WEBVTT - The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire explained

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<v Speaker 1>Already and this is this is the Daily OS.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the Daily OS. Oh, now it makes sense.

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<v Speaker 3>Good morning, and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Thursday,

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<v Speaker 3>the twenty eighth of November.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Zara, I'm billy.

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<v Speaker 3>Yesterday a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbalah came into effect

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<v Speaker 3>after thirteen months of fighting.

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<v Speaker 1>I spoke with the Prime Minister of Israel and Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm pleased to announce that their governments have accepted the

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<v Speaker 1>United States proposal and the devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbolah.

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<v Speaker 3>The deal which you heard there being announced by US

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<v Speaker 3>President Joe Biden, will see both parties required to retreat

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<v Speaker 3>from their current positions over the next sixty days, and

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<v Speaker 3>it marks a really major turning point in the conflict.

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<v Speaker 2>This is really huge news that happened yesterday. But before

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<v Speaker 2>we actually discuss the details of the season deal, I

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<v Speaker 2>think it's important to just take a step back and

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<v Speaker 2>explain the context of the current conflict between Israel and hesblah. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>what do we need to know? Okay?

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<v Speaker 3>So I think that a good starting point is just

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<v Speaker 3>to distinguish exactly who we're talking about here, because there

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<v Speaker 3>are concurrent conflicts happening across the Middle East, but today

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<v Speaker 3>we're talking about Hezbollah and Israel, not to be confused

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<v Speaker 3>with Hammas and Israel. So Hamas is based in Gaza,

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<v Speaker 3>Hezbola is based in Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 2>So when we talk about this ceasefire deal, we're not

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<v Speaker 2>talking about the war in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>No, we're not talking about Gaza specifically today, and we'll

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<v Speaker 3>get to that a bit later. So we are talking

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<v Speaker 3>about Hezballah As, I said, a group based in Lebanon,

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<v Speaker 3>similar to Hamas. It is armed, backed and trained by Iran,

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<v Speaker 3>and Australia classifies it as a terrorist organization. For the

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<v Speaker 3>sake of I think understanding the nature of the deal

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<v Speaker 3>that was agreed to yesterday, it's really important to highlight

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<v Speaker 3>that Hesbela is not the government of Lebanon. So in Gaza,

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<v Speaker 3>Hamas is the governing party there, But in Lebanon there

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<v Speaker 3>is a government that is made up of a whole

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<v Speaker 3>host of different parties. Hes Bala has some seats in parliament,

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<v Speaker 3>but it's by no means a majority. Now to go

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<v Speaker 3>back to your question about the context in which this

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<v Speaker 3>ceasefire has emerged, So the latest round of violence between

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<v Speaker 3>hes Balah and Israel really dates back to October eighth

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<v Speaker 3>of twenty twenty three. Now, that's one day after Hamas

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<v Speaker 3>launched its attack on Israel, and on that day Hesbola

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<v Speaker 3>began firing rockets into Israel and it's said at the

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<v Speaker 3>time that that was in solidarity with Hamas. So since

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<v Speaker 3>that time October eighth last year, Hesbola attacks have killed

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<v Speaker 3>at least seventy five people in Israel, that's according to

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<v Speaker 3>Israeli authorities, and around sixty thousand Israelis in the north

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<v Speaker 3>of Israel have been displaced. In Lebanon, Israeli attacks have

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<v Speaker 3>killed more than three thousand, five hundred people, that's according

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<v Speaker 3>to Lebanese authorities. There around nine hundred thousand Lebanese people

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<v Speaker 3>have been displaced due to these ongoing attacks. And then

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<v Speaker 3>in September this year, Israel launched a ground invasion, so

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<v Speaker 3>they put troops on the ground to launch an invasion,

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<v Speaker 3>a land invasion into Lebanon. A few months later, they

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<v Speaker 3>also killed Hesboala's longtime leader, has Son Nostralla, And we

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<v Speaker 3>did do that on a separate podcast, So I'll throw

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<v Speaker 3>that link into today's show notes to give a bit

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<v Speaker 3>more background as to what the nature of this conflict

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<v Speaker 3>has looked like for the past couple of months.

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<v Speaker 2>And one more piece of context that I find helpful

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<v Speaker 2>is understanding the geography of the situation. So Lebanon, we're

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<v Speaker 2>talking about South Lebanon, Yeah, which borders the north of Israel.

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<v Speaker 3>Correct, Yeah, and that border is where all of this

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<v Speaker 3>conflict has really centered upon.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, So this conflict has been raging for over a

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<v Speaker 2>year now, and you've just outlined the suffering and toll

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<v Speaker 2>that it has taken. But yesterday, for the first time

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<v Speaker 2>in thirteen months, a ceasefire was announced. What do we

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<v Speaker 2>know about the details of that ceasefire? It's long awaited, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>it really is. And what was interesting about the way

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<v Speaker 2>that this emerged. You know, over the past year, there

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<v Speaker 2>have kind of been these slow reports that a ceasefire

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<v Speaker 2>might be happening, but then it never really comes to fruition.

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<v Speaker 2>But this felt different from the beginning. So a couple

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<v Speaker 2>of days ago, these reports first started emerging of a

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<v Speaker 2>ceasefire between Hesbalah and Israel, and just on like I

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<v Speaker 2>guess a media literacy level, what was interesting was that

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<v Speaker 2>compared to previous times, there were actually details about the

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<v Speaker 2>nature of that ceasefire that were being included in the reports,

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<v Speaker 2>and to me, that signaled that this was different, that

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<v Speaker 2>the details were being included in the reporting, that there

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<v Speaker 2>was a full structure out there as to what this

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<v Speaker 2>deal would look like. And it turns out that it

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<v Speaker 2>was different, and that this was the first time in

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<v Speaker 2>thirteen months that a ceasefire was going to actually happen.

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<v Speaker 2>We got confirmation yesterday that Israel's parliament had agreed to it,

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<v Speaker 2>and then later that day the deal itself was announced

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<v Speaker 2>by US President Joe Biden, and I think think it's

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<v Speaker 2>important to highlight why he was the one that announced it,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's because this was a US broken deal. So

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<v Speaker 2>the US has been trying to mediate these these fire

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<v Speaker 2>deals across the region for, as I said, over a

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<v Speaker 2>year now. But this is the first successful one between

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<v Speaker 2>Hesbela and Israel, and it was broken by the US

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<v Speaker 2>and also involved France. Right, Okay, so what are the details.

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<v Speaker 3>So essentially, over the next sixty days, both Israel and

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<v Speaker 3>Hesbela will be required to retreat from their current positions.

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<v Speaker 2>So, just to be clear, it's not a ceasefire that

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<v Speaker 2>is effective immediately, it's going to take about two.

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<v Speaker 3>Months for the full conditions to be met. It will

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<v Speaker 3>take that period of time, but there is going to

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<v Speaker 3>be a dramatic change in the way these two parties

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<v Speaker 3>are relating to one another. So the sixty days is

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<v Speaker 3>basically just to ensure that a vacuum doesn't get created

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<v Speaker 3>when these powers retreat from their current spots. So at

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<v Speaker 3>the moment, Hesbela and Israel are both, as you said,

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<v Speaker 3>centered around that border in the south of Lebanon and

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<v Speaker 3>the north of Israel. What we know from this deal

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<v Speaker 3>is that Hesbela will be required to move north, so

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<v Speaker 3>to leave the south and to move north upwards into Lebanon,

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<v Speaker 3>and that where they were will now be patrolled and

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<v Speaker 3>basically regulated by the Lebanese Army and.

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<v Speaker 2>Who are not involved in Hesblon exactly.

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<v Speaker 3>So that's again distinguishing the fact that Lebanon's army is

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<v Speaker 3>very different to Hesbela. And so the Lebanese army will

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<v Speaker 3>now be in charge of southern Lebanon and they'll be

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<v Speaker 3>responsible for ensuring that Hesbela infrastructure, so the physical infrastructure

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<v Speaker 3>that they've been using is removed and can't be.

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<v Speaker 2>Rebuilt, Okay, So that is the conditions that HESBLA has

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<v Speaker 2>to follow. Yeah, what about Israel.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so, as I mentioned earlier, Israel's currently in Lebanon,

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<v Speaker 3>or Israeli troops are in Lebanon, and so over the

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<v Speaker 3>next sixty days they will have to withdraw from Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 3>And as I said, this won't happen tomorrow or today.

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<v Speaker 3>It's going to take some time for them to fully withdraw,

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<v Speaker 3>and they've said that that will happen meaningfully once those

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<v Speaker 3>Lebanese troops are in place.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll be back with this deep dive in just a moment,

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<v Speaker 2>but first, here is a quick message from our sponsor.

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<v Speaker 2>So I understand that the troops are starting to have

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<v Speaker 2>to withdraw and that that process will take sixty days.

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<v Speaker 2>But in terms of hostilities, is the deal that hostilities

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<v Speaker 2>so the killing of either side immediately stops.

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<v Speaker 3>We don't have the actual details of what is enclosed

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<v Speaker 3>in this ceasefire, but the understanding is that yes, there

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<v Speaker 3>should be no more attacks from either side while this

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<v Speaker 3>process takes place, and that this is the way to

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<v Speaker 3>create what Biden has called like a meaningful change rather

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<v Speaker 3>than something that just pauses overnight.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's another interesting point when it comes to

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<v Speaker 2>media literacy that you know, in journalism we always try

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<v Speaker 2>to get the primary source, but when it comes to

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<v Speaker 2>the ceasefire deal, we don't have.

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<v Speaker 3>That, No, we don't. So the most information has come

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<v Speaker 3>from the US, both from President Biden but also a

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<v Speaker 3>US official who spoke to a bunch of outlets. We've

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<v Speaker 3>heard from Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime minister, we have heard

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<v Speaker 3>from the Lebanese Prime minister, but we haven't actually got

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<v Speaker 3>that document of what exactly has been agreed to. So

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<v Speaker 3>we're really piecing this together based on a whole bunch

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<v Speaker 3>of different sources, Okay.

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<v Speaker 2>And who will be responsible for enforcing this ceasefire agreement?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah? And I mean that's the biggest question, right, Like

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<v Speaker 3>everyone can agree to whatever they like, but if it's

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<v Speaker 3>not enforced, what happens then? And according to Biden, that

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<v Speaker 3>will be the job of the US and France. And

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<v Speaker 3>I thought France was interesting because when we've spoken previously

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<v Speaker 3>about ceasefire negotiations, whether that be with Hummas or with France,

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<v Speaker 3>hasn't really featured very prominently at all.

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<v Speaker 2>I always think of Qatar as being a mediator, but

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<v Speaker 2>maybe that's more in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>With US, that's more with Hummas and with Hesbella. Clearly

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<v Speaker 3>France has played a big role. I do want to

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<v Speaker 3>just make really clear, and this was something that Biden stressed.

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<v Speaker 3>When we talk about enforcing the ceasefire, that's not about

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<v Speaker 3>having US troops on the grounds. There's not going to

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<v Speaker 3>be US troops standing at the border watching what happens,

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<v Speaker 3>because President Biden said that he had made a commitment

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<v Speaker 3>to the US public that there would be no troops

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<v Speaker 3>sent into this conflict. But in terms of what happens

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<v Speaker 3>if the rules of the ceasefire are broken, here's what

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<v Speaker 3>Biden said yesterday.

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<v Speaker 1>Let me be clear, if Hezblah or anyone else breaks

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<v Speaker 1>the deal and pose a direct threat to Israel, then

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<v Speaker 1>Israel retains the right to self defense consistent with international law.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll have to wait and see if this ceasefire holds,

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<v Speaker 2>but for now, what have we heard from Israeli and

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<v Speaker 2>Lebanese officials.

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<v Speaker 3>Broadly, both sides have welcomed the ceasefire. We heard a

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<v Speaker 3>bit of reasoning as to why they got to this

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<v Speaker 3>position from the Israeli side, Prime Minister Benjamin Nettania, who

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<v Speaker 3>said that, and I'm quoting directly here, a good deal

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<v Speaker 3>is a deal that is enforced, and we will enforce it.

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<v Speaker 3>He also did say that the length of the ceasefire

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<v Speaker 3>depends on what happens in Lebanon, so he's intimating there

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<v Speaker 3>that if there are attacks from Hesbalah into Israel, that

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<v Speaker 3>Israel will respond on the flip side. In Lebanon, Prime

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<v Speaker 3>Minister Najib McCarty said that the deal is quote a

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<v Speaker 3>fundamental step towards establishing calm and stability in Lebanon and

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<v Speaker 3>the return of the displaced to their homes and cities.

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<v Speaker 3>And he's there referring to as I mentioned the fact

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<v Speaker 3>that in these border towns, both on the Israeli and

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<v Speaker 3>Lebanese side, people haven't been able to go home for

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<v Speaker 3>over a year, and that this is the hope that

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<v Speaker 3>that will change.

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<v Speaker 2>And before we go, I think that the question a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of people will have is what impact does this

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<v Speaker 2>cease fire between Israel and Hesblah have on the war

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<v Speaker 2>in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and it's a really good question. I think it's

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<v Speaker 3>a difficult one to answer fully, But what I'd say is,

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<v Speaker 3>on a purely practical level, it doesn't change the situation

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<v Speaker 3>in Gaza. It's not a truce between Hummas and Israel.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a truce between Hesbelah and Israel. But I think

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<v Speaker 3>that more needs to be read into what could happen

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<v Speaker 3>from here and what the geopolitical shifts might be. Biden

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<v Speaker 3>did confirm yesterday that in the wake of this successful

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<v Speaker 3>cease fire deal that he is going to try and

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<v Speaker 3>renew his efforts to get a deal done in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 3>He said in the press conference he spoke quite a

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<v Speaker 3>lot about the Palestinians in Gaza and their suffering. He said,

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<v Speaker 3>they've been through hell. Their world is absolutely shattered, and

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<v Speaker 3>he said that he wants to see a cease fire

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<v Speaker 3>reached and he wants to see those remaining hostages held

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<v Speaker 3>in Gaza by Hummas released back to Israel. I will

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<v Speaker 3>add that the last time there was a pause in

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<v Speaker 3>fighting in Gaza was a full year ago now, yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>and that was only for a few days, and at

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<v Speaker 3>that point we had some hostages released. That's the only

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<v Speaker 3>time there has been hostages released by Hummas, and there

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<v Speaker 3>was a halt in fighting for those few days. But

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<v Speaker 3>there have been no breakthroughs since that time, despite all

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<v Speaker 3>the reporting of sometimes getting closed, sometimes not getting close.

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<v Speaker 3>What I will say though, is that Joe Barden only

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<v Speaker 3>has two months really left in office, and I think

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of people have suggested that the wars in

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<v Speaker 3>the Middle East will be a big part of his legacy,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think and his administration will be working very

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<v Speaker 3>hard to try and change that and to try to

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<v Speaker 3>bring an end to the war in Gaza over the

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<v Speaker 3>next two months before President Trump takes office.

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<v Speaker 2>And we know that President elect Donald Trump has also

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<v Speaker 2>said that he also wants to see a complete end

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<v Speaker 2>to the war in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, yeah, so, I mean, look, today feels like the

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<v Speaker 3>closest we have had in bringing an end to these

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<v Speaker 3>concurrent wars since you know, October last year. But we'll

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<v Speaker 3>have to wait and see what happens.

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<v Speaker 2>It's such a complicated topic. Zara, thank you so much

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<v Speaker 2>for taking us through it, and thank you so much

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<v Speaker 2>for listening to this episode of The Daily Os. We'll

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<v Speaker 2>be back with your afternoon headlines this afternoon. My name

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<v Speaker 2>is Lily Madden and I'm a proud Arunda Bunjelung Kalgodin

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<v Speaker 2>woman from Gadighol Country. The Daily Os acknowledges that this

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<v Speaker 2>podcast is recorded on the lands of the Gadighl people.

0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:53.280
<v Speaker 2>And pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island

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<v Speaker 2>and nations. We pay our respects to the first peoples

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<v Speaker 2>of these countries, both past and present.