Speaker 1: Already and this is this is the Daily OS.
Speaker 2: This is the Daily OS. Oh, now it makes sense.
Speaker 3: Good morning, and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Thursday,
Speaker 3: the twenty eighth of November.
Speaker 2: I'm Zara, I'm billy.
Speaker 3: Yesterday a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbalah came into effect
Speaker 3: after thirteen months of fighting.
Speaker 1: I spoke with the Prime Minister of Israel and Lebanon.
Speaker 1: I'm pleased to announce that their governments have accepted the
Speaker 1: United States proposal and the devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbolah.
Speaker 3: The deal which you heard there being announced by US
Speaker 3: President Joe Biden, will see both parties required to retreat
Speaker 3: from their current positions over the next sixty days, and
Speaker 3: it marks a really major turning point in the conflict.
Speaker 2: This is really huge news that happened yesterday. But before
Speaker 2: we actually discuss the details of the season deal, I
Speaker 2: think it's important to just take a step back and
Speaker 2: explain the context of the current conflict between Israel and hesblah. Yeah,
Speaker 2: what do we need to know? Okay?
Speaker 3: So I think that a good starting point is just
Speaker 3: to distinguish exactly who we're talking about here, because there
Speaker 3: are concurrent conflicts happening across the Middle East, but today
Speaker 3: we're talking about Hezbollah and Israel, not to be confused
Speaker 3: with Hammas and Israel. So Hamas is based in Gaza,
Speaker 3: Hezbola is based in Lebanon.
Speaker 2: So when we talk about this ceasefire deal, we're not
Speaker 2: talking about the war in Gaza.
Speaker 3: No, we're not talking about Gaza specifically today, and we'll
Speaker 3: get to that a bit later. So we are talking
Speaker 3: about Hezballah As, I said, a group based in Lebanon,
Speaker 3: similar to Hamas. It is armed, backed and trained by Iran,
Speaker 3: and Australia classifies it as a terrorist organization. For the
Speaker 3: sake of I think understanding the nature of the deal
Speaker 3: that was agreed to yesterday, it's really important to highlight
Speaker 3: that Hesbela is not the government of Lebanon. So in Gaza,
Speaker 3: Hamas is the governing party there, But in Lebanon there
Speaker 3: is a government that is made up of a whole
Speaker 3: host of different parties. Hes Bala has some seats in parliament,
Speaker 3: but it's by no means a majority. Now to go
Speaker 3: back to your question about the context in which this
Speaker 3: ceasefire has emerged, So the latest round of violence between
Speaker 3: hes Balah and Israel really dates back to October eighth
Speaker 3: of twenty twenty three. Now, that's one day after Hamas
Speaker 3: launched its attack on Israel, and on that day Hesbola
Speaker 3: began firing rockets into Israel and it's said at the
Speaker 3: time that that was in solidarity with Hamas. So since
Speaker 3: that time October eighth last year, Hesbola attacks have killed
Speaker 3: at least seventy five people in Israel, that's according to
Speaker 3: Israeli authorities, and around sixty thousand Israelis in the north
Speaker 3: of Israel have been displaced. In Lebanon, Israeli attacks have
Speaker 3: killed more than three thousand, five hundred people, that's according
Speaker 3: to Lebanese authorities. There around nine hundred thousand Lebanese people
Speaker 3: have been displaced due to these ongoing attacks. And then
Speaker 3: in September this year, Israel launched a ground invasion, so
Speaker 3: they put troops on the ground to launch an invasion,
Speaker 3: a land invasion into Lebanon. A few months later, they
Speaker 3: also killed Hesboala's longtime leader, has Son Nostralla, And we
Speaker 3: did do that on a separate podcast, So I'll throw
Speaker 3: that link into today's show notes to give a bit
Speaker 3: more background as to what the nature of this conflict
Speaker 3: has looked like for the past couple of months.
Speaker 2: And one more piece of context that I find helpful
Speaker 2: is understanding the geography of the situation. So Lebanon, we're
Speaker 2: talking about South Lebanon, Yeah, which borders the north of Israel.
Speaker 3: Correct, Yeah, and that border is where all of this
Speaker 3: conflict has really centered upon.
Speaker 2: Okay, So this conflict has been raging for over a
Speaker 2: year now, and you've just outlined the suffering and toll
Speaker 2: that it has taken. But yesterday, for the first time
Speaker 2: in thirteen months, a ceasefire was announced. What do we
Speaker 2: know about the details of that ceasefire? It's long awaited, Yeah,
Speaker 2: it really is. And what was interesting about the way
Speaker 2: that this emerged. You know, over the past year, there
Speaker 2: have kind of been these slow reports that a ceasefire
Speaker 2: might be happening, but then it never really comes to fruition.
Speaker 2: But this felt different from the beginning. So a couple
Speaker 2: of days ago, these reports first started emerging of a
Speaker 2: ceasefire between Hesbalah and Israel, and just on like I
Speaker 2: guess a media literacy level, what was interesting was that
Speaker 2: compared to previous times, there were actually details about the
Speaker 2: nature of that ceasefire that were being included in the reports,
Speaker 2: and to me, that signaled that this was different, that
Speaker 2: the details were being included in the reporting, that there
Speaker 2: was a full structure out there as to what this
Speaker 2: deal would look like. And it turns out that it
Speaker 2: was different, and that this was the first time in
Speaker 2: thirteen months that a ceasefire was going to actually happen.
Speaker 2: We got confirmation yesterday that Israel's parliament had agreed to it,
Speaker 2: and then later that day the deal itself was announced
Speaker 2: by US President Joe Biden, and I think think it's
Speaker 2: important to highlight why he was the one that announced it,
Speaker 2: and that's because this was a US broken deal. So
Speaker 2: the US has been trying to mediate these these fire
Speaker 2: deals across the region for, as I said, over a
Speaker 2: year now. But this is the first successful one between
Speaker 2: Hesbela and Israel, and it was broken by the US
Speaker 2: and also involved France. Right, Okay, so what are the details.
Speaker 3: So essentially, over the next sixty days, both Israel and
Speaker 3: Hesbela will be required to retreat from their current positions.
Speaker 2: So, just to be clear, it's not a ceasefire that
Speaker 2: is effective immediately, it's going to take about two.
Speaker 3: Months for the full conditions to be met. It will
Speaker 3: take that period of time, but there is going to
Speaker 3: be a dramatic change in the way these two parties
Speaker 3: are relating to one another. So the sixty days is
Speaker 3: basically just to ensure that a vacuum doesn't get created
Speaker 3: when these powers retreat from their current spots. So at
Speaker 3: the moment, Hesbela and Israel are both, as you said,
Speaker 3: centered around that border in the south of Lebanon and
Speaker 3: the north of Israel. What we know from this deal
Speaker 3: is that Hesbela will be required to move north, so
Speaker 3: to leave the south and to move north upwards into Lebanon,
Speaker 3: and that where they were will now be patrolled and
Speaker 3: basically regulated by the Lebanese Army and.
Speaker 2: Who are not involved in Hesblon exactly.
Speaker 3: So that's again distinguishing the fact that Lebanon's army is
Speaker 3: very different to Hesbela. And so the Lebanese army will
Speaker 3: now be in charge of southern Lebanon and they'll be
Speaker 3: responsible for ensuring that Hesbela infrastructure, so the physical infrastructure
Speaker 3: that they've been using is removed and can't be.
Speaker 2: Rebuilt, Okay, So that is the conditions that HESBLA has
Speaker 2: to follow. Yeah, what about Israel.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, as I mentioned earlier, Israel's currently in Lebanon,
Speaker 3: or Israeli troops are in Lebanon, and so over the
Speaker 3: next sixty days they will have to withdraw from Lebanon.
Speaker 3: And as I said, this won't happen tomorrow or today.
Speaker 3: It's going to take some time for them to fully withdraw,
Speaker 3: and they've said that that will happen meaningfully once those
Speaker 3: Lebanese troops are in place.
Speaker 2: We'll be back with this deep dive in just a moment,
Speaker 2: but first, here is a quick message from our sponsor.
Speaker 2: So I understand that the troops are starting to have
Speaker 2: to withdraw and that that process will take sixty days.
Speaker 2: But in terms of hostilities, is the deal that hostilities
Speaker 2: so the killing of either side immediately stops.
Speaker 3: We don't have the actual details of what is enclosed
Speaker 3: in this ceasefire, but the understanding is that yes, there
Speaker 3: should be no more attacks from either side while this
Speaker 3: process takes place, and that this is the way to
Speaker 3: create what Biden has called like a meaningful change rather
Speaker 3: than something that just pauses overnight.
Speaker 2: I think that's another interesting point when it comes to
Speaker 2: media literacy that you know, in journalism we always try
Speaker 2: to get the primary source, but when it comes to
Speaker 2: the ceasefire deal, we don't have.
Speaker 3: That, No, we don't. So the most information has come
Speaker 3: from the US, both from President Biden but also a
Speaker 3: US official who spoke to a bunch of outlets. We've
Speaker 3: heard from Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime minister, we have heard
Speaker 3: from the Lebanese Prime minister, but we haven't actually got
Speaker 3: that document of what exactly has been agreed to. So
Speaker 3: we're really piecing this together based on a whole bunch
Speaker 3: of different sources, Okay.
Speaker 2: And who will be responsible for enforcing this ceasefire agreement?
Speaker 3: Yeah? And I mean that's the biggest question, right, Like
Speaker 3: everyone can agree to whatever they like, but if it's
Speaker 3: not enforced, what happens then? And according to Biden, that
Speaker 3: will be the job of the US and France. And
Speaker 3: I thought France was interesting because when we've spoken previously
Speaker 3: about ceasefire negotiations, whether that be with Hummas or with France,
Speaker 3: hasn't really featured very prominently at all.
Speaker 2: I always think of Qatar as being a mediator, but
Speaker 2: maybe that's more in Gaza.
Speaker 3: With US, that's more with Hummas and with Hesbella. Clearly
Speaker 3: France has played a big role. I do want to
Speaker 3: just make really clear, and this was something that Biden stressed.
Speaker 3: When we talk about enforcing the ceasefire, that's not about
Speaker 3: having US troops on the grounds. There's not going to
Speaker 3: be US troops standing at the border watching what happens,
Speaker 3: because President Biden said that he had made a commitment
Speaker 3: to the US public that there would be no troops
Speaker 3: sent into this conflict. But in terms of what happens
Speaker 3: if the rules of the ceasefire are broken, here's what
Speaker 3: Biden said yesterday.
Speaker 1: Let me be clear, if Hezblah or anyone else breaks
Speaker 1: the deal and pose a direct threat to Israel, then
Speaker 1: Israel retains the right to self defense consistent with international law.
Speaker 2: We'll have to wait and see if this ceasefire holds,
Speaker 2: but for now, what have we heard from Israeli and
Speaker 2: Lebanese officials.
Speaker 3: Broadly, both sides have welcomed the ceasefire. We heard a
Speaker 3: bit of reasoning as to why they got to this
Speaker 3: position from the Israeli side, Prime Minister Benjamin Nettania, who
Speaker 3: said that, and I'm quoting directly here, a good deal
Speaker 3: is a deal that is enforced, and we will enforce it.
Speaker 3: He also did say that the length of the ceasefire
Speaker 3: depends on what happens in Lebanon, so he's intimating there
Speaker 3: that if there are attacks from Hesbalah into Israel, that
Speaker 3: Israel will respond on the flip side. In Lebanon, Prime
Speaker 3: Minister Najib McCarty said that the deal is quote a
Speaker 3: fundamental step towards establishing calm and stability in Lebanon and
Speaker 3: the return of the displaced to their homes and cities.
Speaker 3: And he's there referring to as I mentioned the fact
Speaker 3: that in these border towns, both on the Israeli and
Speaker 3: Lebanese side, people haven't been able to go home for
Speaker 3: over a year, and that this is the hope that
Speaker 3: that will change.
Speaker 2: And before we go, I think that the question a
Speaker 2: lot of people will have is what impact does this
Speaker 2: cease fire between Israel and Hesblah have on the war
Speaker 2: in Gaza.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's a really good question. I think it's
Speaker 3: a difficult one to answer fully, But what I'd say is,
Speaker 3: on a purely practical level, it doesn't change the situation
Speaker 3: in Gaza. It's not a truce between Hummas and Israel.
Speaker 3: It's a truce between Hesbelah and Israel. But I think
Speaker 3: that more needs to be read into what could happen
Speaker 3: from here and what the geopolitical shifts might be. Biden
Speaker 3: did confirm yesterday that in the wake of this successful
Speaker 3: cease fire deal that he is going to try and
Speaker 3: renew his efforts to get a deal done in Gaza.
Speaker 3: He said in the press conference he spoke quite a
Speaker 3: lot about the Palestinians in Gaza and their suffering. He said,
Speaker 3: they've been through hell. Their world is absolutely shattered, and
Speaker 3: he said that he wants to see a cease fire
Speaker 3: reached and he wants to see those remaining hostages held
Speaker 3: in Gaza by Hummas released back to Israel. I will
Speaker 3: add that the last time there was a pause in
Speaker 3: fighting in Gaza was a full year ago now, yeah,
Speaker 3: and that was only for a few days, and at
Speaker 3: that point we had some hostages released. That's the only
Speaker 3: time there has been hostages released by Hummas, and there
Speaker 3: was a halt in fighting for those few days. But
Speaker 3: there have been no breakthroughs since that time, despite all
Speaker 3: the reporting of sometimes getting closed, sometimes not getting close.
Speaker 3: What I will say though, is that Joe Barden only
Speaker 3: has two months really left in office, and I think
Speaker 3: a lot of people have suggested that the wars in
Speaker 3: the Middle East will be a big part of his legacy,
Speaker 3: and I think and his administration will be working very
Speaker 3: hard to try and change that and to try to
Speaker 3: bring an end to the war in Gaza over the
Speaker 3: next two months before President Trump takes office.
Speaker 2: And we know that President elect Donald Trump has also
Speaker 2: said that he also wants to see a complete end
Speaker 2: to the war in the Middle East.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, so, I mean, look, today feels like the
Speaker 3: closest we have had in bringing an end to these
Speaker 3: concurrent wars since you know, October last year. But we'll
Speaker 3: have to wait and see what happens.
Speaker 2: It's such a complicated topic. Zara, thank you so much
Speaker 2: for taking us through it, and thank you so much
Speaker 2: for listening to this episode of The Daily Os. We'll
Speaker 2: be back with your afternoon headlines this afternoon. My name
Speaker 2: is Lily Madden and I'm a proud Arunda Bunjelung Kalgodin
Speaker 2: woman from Gadighol Country. The Daily Os acknowledges that this
Speaker 2: podcast is recorded on the lands of the Gadighl people.
Speaker 2: And pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island
Speaker 2: and nations. We pay our respects to the first peoples
Speaker 2: of these countries, both past and present.