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Speaker 1: My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda

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Speaker 1: Bungelung Kalkutin woman from Gadighl country. The Daily oz acknowledges

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Speaker 1: that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the

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Speaker 1: Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres

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Speaker 1: Strait Island and nations. We pay our respects to the

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Speaker 1: first peoples of these countries, both past and present.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, and welcome to the Daily os It's Monday,

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Speaker 2: the third of October.

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Speaker 3: I'm Zara and I'm Tom. Now.

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Speaker 2: There are so many new headlines each week on the

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Speaker 2: war in Ukraine, and honestly it can.

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Speaker 3: Be really hard to keep track.

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Speaker 2: But zoom out a little and a noticeable shift has

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Speaker 2: played out over the last month. Now Tom is here

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Speaker 2: today to help me unpack what exactly that shift is

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Speaker 2: and what it might mean in a moment. But first, Tom,

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Speaker 2: take us through the headlines.

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Speaker 3: At least one hundred and twenty nine people have died

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Speaker 3: and one hundred and eighty were injured after a stampede

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Speaker 3: at an Indonesian soccer match, according to the police chief.

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Speaker 3: In East Java, authorities fired tear gas after supporters from

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Speaker 3: the losing side invaded the pitch, leading to a deathly stampede.

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Speaker 2: The largest search and rescue operation in US history is

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Speaker 2: currently underway in the southeast part of the country, with

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Speaker 2: one point seventy five million Americans still without power. President

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Speaker 2: Biden said the hurricane is quote likely to rank among

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Speaker 2: the worst in the nation's history, and will this week

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Speaker 2: visit Puerto Rico and Florida.

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Speaker 3: Federal Attorney General Mark Dreyfus has revealed further details on

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Speaker 3: what the proposed National Anti Corruption Commission will be empowered

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Speaker 3: to use in its investigations. Dreyfus told the ABC's Insiders

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Speaker 3: that encrypted text messages sent by politicians on platforms like

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Speaker 3: WhatsApp and Signal could be tapped by the commission.

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Speaker 2: And today's good news, a new drug funded by donations

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Speaker 2: from that viral twenty fourteen ALS ice bucket challenge, has

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Speaker 2: been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. CALINAE. Ballas,

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Speaker 2: who is the president and CEO of the ALS Association,

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Speaker 2: said that the drug would slow down the effects of

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Speaker 2: the disease and quote immediately help people living with ALS.

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Speaker 2: It will become available to patients in the US in

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Speaker 2: the next four to six weeks.

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Speaker 3: Czar did you ever do the als ice bucket challenge?

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Speaker 2: I did not do it, but I'm glad that those

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Speaker 2: that shivered through it all have done.

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Speaker 3: It for a very good cause.

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Speaker 2: In today's deep Dive, we're going to talk about Russia

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Speaker 2: and Ukraine, and of course this has been an ongoing war,

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Speaker 2: but it's been a a while since we've actually spoken

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Speaker 2: about it, and b there have been some really really

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Speaker 2: significant developments as of late that Tom, I think that

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Speaker 2: it would be really useful for you to take everyone through.

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Speaker 3: So Tom, where are we at. Well, I'll start a

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Speaker 3: few months back. You might remember that the stories over

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Speaker 3: the last couple of months it tended to be pretty

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Speaker 3: bad news for Ukraine. We were hearing of these long,

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Speaker 3: slow battles for cities that Russia would eventually take over.

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Speaker 3: So there were cities like Mariopol, a port city, and

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Speaker 3: a number of other cities where Russia would surround them

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Speaker 3: and people were trapped in cities for a while. And

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Speaker 3: really the tide of the war was that Russia was

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Speaker 3: suffering losses and Ukraine was fighting on for longer than

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Speaker 3: people expected, but that Russia was sort of slowly taking

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Speaker 3: over territory. That's the thing that shifted in the month

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Speaker 3: of September for the first time really since April, Ukrainian

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Speaker 3: forces have started to regain territory from Russia. Specifically, it

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Speaker 3: was in the northeast of the country, so one of

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Speaker 3: the largest cities in Ukraine is Kharkiv. They kind of

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Speaker 3: pushed out from Kharkiv and pushed Russian forces back from

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Speaker 3: an area of about six to nine thousand square kilometers

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Speaker 3: essentially all the way back to the Russian and the

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Speaker 3: Belarusian border. And that's kind of significant because a couple

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Speaker 3: of the towns that they've taken back were key transport

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Speaker 3: and supply towns for Russia. So even though Russia is

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Speaker 3: still in control of large parts of Ukraine, Ukraine's managed

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Speaker 3: to push them out of some territory where they've been

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Speaker 3: using it for supplies and for that sort of purpose,

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Speaker 3: and so it might make it a little bit difficult

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Speaker 3: for Russia to hold some of the rest of its territory.

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Speaker 3: And in that sense, it's viewed as a pretty significant

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Speaker 3: shift in the war.

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Speaker 2: This shift that you're talking about has also been reflected

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Speaker 2: in the rhetoric and also the actions of Russian leader

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Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin. Can you talk about that a bit further

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Speaker 2: because we've seen some really big actions and words from Pudin.

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Speaker 3: Yeah Putin, in the words of a lot of onlookers

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Speaker 3: and experts, looks like he's getting a little bit desperate

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Speaker 3: in response to this latest news. And part of the

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Speaker 3: reason for that, I alluded to it a moment ago,

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Speaker 3: is that Russia's suffered very, very heavy losses. They've lost

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Speaker 3: about eighty thousand soldiers out of the two hundred thousand

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Speaker 3: that they originally sent to Ukraine. That's a huge number

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Speaker 3: of losses, and so this latest shift is I guess,

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Speaker 3: a significant sign that things are going poorly, and he's

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Speaker 3: lashed out in a number of different ways. So one

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Speaker 3: of the first things that he did was what was

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Speaker 3: called a mobilization of the country's reserves. So Russia has

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Speaker 3: provisions where people who are civilians but who have some

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Speaker 3: sort of military experience can be called up in desperate

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Speaker 3: situations to enlist in the army. I believe it hasn't

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Speaker 3: happened since World War II, but it happened a couple

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Speaker 3: of weeks ago. Wasn't very popular. There are a lot

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Speaker 3: of protests across Russia. People who didn't want to be

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Speaker 3: mobilized and didn't want to join the war, and I

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Speaker 3: think one recruitment guard was even shot. But that was

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Speaker 3: kind of you step one, I guess, of signaling Putin's

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Speaker 3: desperation to kind of call in these emergency supplies. Another

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Speaker 3: one of the things that Putin has done is run

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Speaker 3: essentially sham votes in the areas of Ukraine that Russia controls.

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Speaker 3: So on the surface of it, there's supposed to be

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Speaker 3: votes in Ukrainian territories on whether they would like to

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Speaker 3: join Russia, and it just so happened that ninety nine

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Speaker 3: percent of people voted and said yes, we would like

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Speaker 3: to join Russia. Of course, that's a suspiciously high number,

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Speaker 3: and there have been footage and reports of people voting

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Speaker 3: at gunpoint and that sort of thing, and the votes

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Speaker 3: have been widely cast as a sham, but they were

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Speaker 3: a pretense for Putin to do what's called annexing those territories,

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Speaker 3: so to declare them officially part of Russia. And the

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Speaker 3: significance of declaring them officially part of Russia is that

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Speaker 3: then once you've decided that this is Russian territory, you

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Speaker 3: defend it in a different way. And this gets to

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Speaker 3: the third big thing that Putin has done more of

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Speaker 3: and that is threatened to use nuclear weapons. So Putin's

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Speaker 3: been talking about Russia's nuclear weapons for a long time.

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Speaker 3: Russia has a lot of them, more than anyone in

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Speaker 3: the world, and about fifteen hundred nuclear weapons that are

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Speaker 3: at the ready, and Putin has been talking more and

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Speaker 3: more in the last couple of weeks about how he's

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Speaker 3: willing to do everything in his power and to use

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Speaker 3: everything that Russia has to defend Russian territory, which with

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Speaker 3: this annexing now includes these parts of Ukraine. So it's

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Speaker 3: been taken as an escalation in a threat of using

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Speaker 3: nuclear force, which of course would be really very disastrous

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Speaker 3: for the world. Again, it can be difficult to know

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Speaker 3: how seriously to take those threats. Obviously, to use nuclear

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Speaker 3: weapons would be a really, you know, major and dire

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Speaker 3: step that we've not seen for you know, forever, really

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Speaker 3: on this scale, and there's the threat of kind of

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Speaker 3: human annihilation if we were to descend into a nuclear war,

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Speaker 3: and so that sort of talks very alarming. Putin says

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Speaker 3: he's not bluffing, you know, it's sort of unclear, but

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Speaker 3: it does seem that the response from the West from

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Speaker 3: leaders in Europe and in America has been that they

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Speaker 3: are taking this quite seriously, and that they're sort of

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Speaker 3: mobilizing and preparing surveillance and just keeping an eye to

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Speaker 3: make sure that that we don't head in that direction.

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Speaker 3: So so all of these a sign really of desperation.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned before that there have been protests in Russia.

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Speaker 2: I guess I want to know, is Putin's job at

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Speaker 2: risk here? I mean, if he's that unpopular, what happens

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Speaker 2: from here?

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Speaker 3: This is what's really difficult to know, And it depends

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Speaker 3: on which Russia watching expert you ask. But what certainly

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Speaker 3: the case is that the voices of descent are getting

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Speaker 3: louder and louder. It's quite difficult to express dissent in Russia.

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Speaker 3: Of course, enemies of Putin have routinely ended up poisoned

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Speaker 3: or imprisoned or you know, befallen various other fates. I

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Speaker 3: think a lot of Russian oligarchs over the last few

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Speaker 3: months have died in rather suspicious circumstances. So it's a

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Speaker 3: genuinely a very dangerous thing to be openly critical of

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Speaker 3: the government. What's been interesting has been not only a

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Speaker 3: rise in protests across Russia, but also arise in criticism

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Speaker 3: of Putin on Russian state television, so on these sort

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Speaker 3: of talk shows that happen on Russian TV, you know,

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Speaker 3: generally people follow a pretty strict script and there's not

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Speaker 3: much genuine criticism of the Russian government and its strategy.

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Speaker 3: But over the last couple of months that's really changed.

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Speaker 3: A lot of the voices that are normally you know,

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Speaker 3: on the conservative side of things and on Putin's side

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Speaker 3: of things have been critical of the strategy and critical

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Speaker 3: that Russia is not doing what it should be to

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Speaker 3: win the war as quickly as it might have. And

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Speaker 3: that's that criticism has even come from some of Putin's

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Speaker 3: kind of government allies. So the leader of Chechnya, which

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Speaker 3: is a region that Russia controls, and the leader of Chechnya,

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Speaker 3: Ramzan Katov, has been an ally of Putin's. He's been

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Speaker 3: quite publicly critical of Putin's strategy as well. So all

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Speaker 3: of these things are prompting some suggestion that there might

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Speaker 3: be some sort of coup and that there might be

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Speaker 3: people around Putin who are plotting to remove him. There's

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Speaker 3: no clear front runner to replace him, and of course

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Speaker 3: that would be a pretty extraordinary thing to do, and

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of skepticism from some people that that

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Speaker 3: will actually happen. Putin's been written off before, and people

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Speaker 3: have predicted his demise before, and it hasn't really happened.

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Speaker 3: I think one of the key factors throughout the war

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Speaker 3: has been that information has been limited in Russia and

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Speaker 3: people haven't necessarily known much that they might have bought

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Speaker 3: Putin's lines about how this is just a quick military operation,

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Speaker 3: and I guess bought some of that Russian propaganda about

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Speaker 3: the reasons for the war. I think that's starting to change.

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Speaker 3: So the New York Times had a major investigation in

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Speaker 3: the last week or so where they had a number

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Speaker 3: of audio clips of Russian sold speaking on the phone

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Speaker 3: to their families and pushing back against some of the

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Speaker 3: Russian government's description of this war. There's a sense of

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Speaker 3: growing disaffection, and obviously that continues to put more pressure

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Speaker 3: on Putin.

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Speaker 2: I think that leads well into my last question, which

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Speaker 2: is all of this makes it sound like the tides

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Speaker 2: are turning. Is it possible that Russia loses this war?

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Speaker 3: It's a really difficult question to answer, and I think

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Speaker 3: it depends in part on how long it all takes.

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Speaker 3: So Ukraine has been careful to be a little bit

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Speaker 3: cautious about the way its celebrated this regaining of territory

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Speaker 3: and to point out the fact that they don't want

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Speaker 3: to stretch their resources too thin. And the reason that

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Speaker 3: they haven't tried to put Russia out of more territory

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Speaker 3: at the moment is because they don't want to risk

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Speaker 3: over committing themselves and then losing back some of that

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Speaker 3: territory again. So it's not just sort of a simple

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Speaker 3: case of now the momentum shifted and Ukraine can chase

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Speaker 3: Russia all the way out. Putin has shown that he's

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Speaker 3: quite willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of Russian soldiers

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Speaker 3: to hold on for dear life in this war and

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Speaker 3: as long as continues gone for a very long time,

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Speaker 3: and that's going to put a lot more pressure on Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: It's why Ukraine keeps asking for military support, but also

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Speaker 3: as time goes on, it will continue to need economic support.

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Speaker 3: Wars are really very expensive. They can't really raise taxes

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Speaker 3: from their people as they normally would, and so to

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Speaker 3: continue to finance just all of the normal things that

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Speaker 3: a government does things like, you know, welfare for citizens

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Speaker 3: and to be able to keep the country afloat for

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Speaker 3: this long, to get everyone fed. All of these things

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Speaker 3: are really difficult to do in war, and so Ukraine

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Speaker 3: has support in some ways from its allies. Probably hasn't

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Speaker 3: had as much economic support as it has had military support.

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Speaker 3: But the longer the war goes on, the harder it

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Speaker 3: will be for Ukraine as well. So it's certainly it

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Speaker 3: would be well and truly over the top to look

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Speaker 3: at the momentum shift in the last month as a

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Speaker 3: sign that we now know who will win the war.

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Speaker 3: But certainly it has been a notable shift.

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Speaker 2: Nonetheless, I felt like reading all of these sort of reports,

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Speaker 2: it's always good to bring them all together and kind

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Speaker 2: of take a bird's eye view as to what's happening

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Speaker 2: very very long war and tom when you put it

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Speaker 2: that way, it is certainly fascinating. Thank you for joining

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Speaker 2: us today on the Daily OZ. If you learned something

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Speaker 2: from this episode, don't forget to hit subscribe so that

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Speaker 2: there's a TDA episode waiting for you every weekday morning.

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Speaker 2: We'll be back again tomorrow, but until then, have a

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Speaker 2: brilliant Monday