1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,120 Speaker 1: Joining us live on the line. It's a voice that 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:06,520 Speaker 1: you'll recognize. He used to catch up with us each 3 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: week to talk weather. It's Karl, Linda's meteorologist with Weather Matters. 4 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 2: Good morning Carl, Katie, long time i speak. How are you? 5 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:18,919 Speaker 1: Oh? I am wonderful. It's great to have you on 6 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 1: the show. And you're in Darwin at the moment. Did 7 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: you bring are you bringing the cyclone with you? Carl? 8 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 2: Oh? Look, you know what, Katie, I always aim to please, 9 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 2: and yes, I'm bringing some cooler weather. It's nice as 10 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 2: some cooler weather for the build up. It's been great 11 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 2: the last couple of days. But yes, it's a getting 12 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:35,879 Speaker 2: a bit hairy now in the forecast. We have got 13 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 2: a pretty substantial system. We're lurking off the TeV Islands 14 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 2: at the moment. 15 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:41,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, so talk us through what the go is, what's 16 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: you know, where is it and what's the modeling showing. 17 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 2: Okay, So we've got this tropical low that's currently situated 18 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:50,839 Speaker 2: just to the north of the TeV Island. It's those 19 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 2: are keen whether radar watches, you can see the circulation 20 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 2: just moving away from the Tee Island at the moment. 21 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 2: A lot of high cloud across Darwin. It's from that system. 22 00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 2: Now the system is expected to take a bit of 23 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 2: east to northeasterly track, so it'll pull out of the 24 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 2: cloud and nicely conditions that are currently over the dahl 25 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 2: And region away tomorrow through Thursday. The system is expected 26 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 2: to move into a more favorable environment for development into 27 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,560 Speaker 2: a tropical cyclone by the end of the week. So 28 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:16,839 Speaker 2: while we start to clear out here in the Darwen 29 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 2: region and broadly across the northern territory for a couple 30 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 2: of days with more sunshine, things are starting to shake 31 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 2: and bake by the end of the week, and I 32 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 2: do think we'll have a cyclone named by the time 33 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 2: we get to the end of the week. Now, there 34 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 2: is a warning graphic that has been issued by the Bureau, 35 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 2: and it's the first of many that will start to 36 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 2: come through this week. Now, many people may start to 37 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:38,760 Speaker 2: see that southward turn that starts to take place later 38 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 2: this week and think, well, it's not really coming towards Darwin. 39 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 2: It's looking like it's going towards man and Greta. But 40 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,680 Speaker 2: beyond that graphic there is the chance we start to 41 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:50,400 Speaker 2: see that system turning back towards Darwin this Saturday and 42 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 2: Sunday into Monday, and so that's the time that we'll 43 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 2: start to see the weather turning across the region. 44 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 1: Yeah right, well, Carl, that all makes a lot more 45 00:01:58,160 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 1: sense because I was thinking to myself, well, how can 46 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: that's going to clear up for the next couple of 47 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 1: days as I was looking at the forecast. That's because 48 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 1: the cyclone is going to be brewing out in the ocean. 49 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 2: Correct, it paus all the weather to its center, so 50 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 2: pauls all the energy away and the the little bit 51 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 2: of a dry surge's comes through the Captain region overnight 52 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,200 Speaker 2: as well, that'll be pulled up over the northern top end, 53 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 2: and so we'll start to see the sky is clearing 54 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 2: up in limited showers and stores but from Friday afternoon 55 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 2: at this stage, and the modeling and this is just modeling, 56 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 2: and theres a lot that can change between now and then, 57 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:28,519 Speaker 2: but the rain and shower should start to increase across 58 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 2: the Darwen region related to the tropical system from Friday, 59 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 2: increasing further Saturday. Peak of the wild weather at the 60 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 2: moment is expected somewhere through the top end Saturday night 61 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 2: through Sunday night and then hearing southwest of the top 62 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:44,959 Speaker 2: end through Monday. That's at the moment, but that could 63 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 2: easily change between now and by the time it gets 64 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 2: to the end of the week. 65 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, and Carl, I mean at this point, I'm just 66 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 1: looking after you'd said that they've now issued that cyclone 67 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: forecast track map. I'm just having a look at it, 68 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:00,919 Speaker 1: and it's you know, at ten am or No. Twenty one. 69 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 1: It's like you said, it's looking like it's sort of 70 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 1: going towards Matten Greta at a cat too. But we 71 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: don't really know what it's going to do at that point. 72 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:13,119 Speaker 1: We don't really know how strong that system could potentially get. 73 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 2: Either, do we. That's correct, And this is a fairly 74 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 2: decent forecast from the Bureau, and that they've coup a 75 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 2: lot of flack a lot of the time, and I 76 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 2: think this is the best thing they can do at 77 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 2: the moment is split the difference in all the solutions 78 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:26,960 Speaker 2: that are on the board. Now I've posted something to 79 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 2: my Facebook page. Whether it matters with just have a 80 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 2: look at that, guys, if you want to have a 81 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 2: look at all the different options there are at the 82 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 2: moment on the table in terms of what the computer 83 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 2: models are saying. But all the Bureau has done, they've 84 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 2: drawn the middle point of all those solutions, and that 85 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 2: takes a system down towards that subtly tracked towards the 86 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 2: man in Greeda. It does not mean it's going to 87 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 2: hit man in Greta. It does not mean the system 88 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 2: is going to hit darm And necessarily it could go 89 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 2: further east, it could fizzle out. We don't know what's 90 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 2: going to happen, but the key messaging is that we 91 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 2: need to prepare. Now. Now is cyclone season, so this 92 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:00,280 Speaker 2: is again it could be the boy that quiet Wolfan. 93 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 2: Nothing happened, But you know what, we had a category 94 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 2: two system with markers and that caused a lot of 95 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 2: disruption with a category two system that came through as 96 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 2: Carlos fifteen years ago, my namesake, and dropped one point 97 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 2: two meters nty six hours. And remember that's right. 98 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: Again, most certainly can Hey, I'm looking at at what 99 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 1: you've just spoken about it, what you'd posted on whether 100 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:29,880 Speaker 1: on your Weather Matter's Facebook page, and yeah, I can 101 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 1: see those different models as well, and you know the 102 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:35,919 Speaker 1: way that it could go. And you just I suppose 103 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:37,840 Speaker 1: we don't know, do we until we've sort of gotten 104 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 1: through the next couple of days. 105 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 2: No, that's right. So my key focus as a weeking 106 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 2: meteorologist doing what I do daily for the clients across 107 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:47,479 Speaker 2: across the country, in particularly in the northern tropics this 108 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 2: time of year is when we get these cyclones and 109 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:52,279 Speaker 2: he's developing loads. Now we've got a low level circulation, 110 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 2: we can see it in real time. Now the track 111 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 2: is how far east does this system go and then 112 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 2: when does it start to turn to the south. That 113 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 2: is really important in terms of narrowing the forecast impacts 114 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 2: across the top end. At this stage, you'd be living 115 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 2: anywhere from say Elka Island all the way around the 116 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 2: Bend to the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on the wa border. 117 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 2: Just pay attention in extending land to about Jabaru, probably 118 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:19,080 Speaker 2: down through the Darwen Metro right down through the Adelaide 119 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 2: River and down to what the whole region needs to 120 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:22,359 Speaker 2: be watching very closely. 121 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:25,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, and making sure that we're prepared. Hey, Carl, in 122 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:28,400 Speaker 1: terms of like we're experiencing. You know, what we've seen 123 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:30,359 Speaker 1: over the last couple of days, in terms of the 124 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:33,160 Speaker 1: amount of rain we've seen. I mean, it's been a 125 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: little bit unseasoned, a seasonal for us comparatively, you know 126 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 1: to last year, I guess for example, but some of 127 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 1: the you know, the more senior territory and saying, oh, 128 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 1: this is what it used to be like in the 129 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: build up. 130 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:49,279 Speaker 2: Well, yes, yeah, well exactly, I've got much more tenure 131 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 2: than I do. So I don't want to I don't 132 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 2: want to make them very angry at mel've just arrived, 133 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 2: but I do. I do think the last the last 134 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 2: fifteen years have been pretty hot. This year has been 135 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 2: a pretty decent build up in terms of the rainfall. 136 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 2: That's everage is not so much. It's definitely been a 137 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 2: wetter November, and if the cyclone does take a trap 138 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 2: over the Darwin region, well probably will end up breaking 139 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:11,599 Speaker 2: the all time record for the wettest November on record. 140 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:14,039 Speaker 2: We're not far away from that at the moment for 141 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 2: the Darwen Yeah, not far away at all. I think 142 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:18,359 Speaker 2: we're sitting about two hundred and fifty millimeters now. The 143 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 2: record I think at the top of my head is 144 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:24,360 Speaker 2: about three fifty seven back in nineteen seventy six. Yeah, 145 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 2: I think it was, so don't quite me on that. 146 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 2: But if we do get that heavy rainfall from the 147 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 2: tropical system of the weekend, we could end up breaking 148 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 2: that record. So it has been a lot wetter and cooler, 149 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 2: but the next couple of days kd back to. 150 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 1: Til Yeah warm, not so warm. So the next fore 151 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 1: you diys tell, and I mean, depending on which track 152 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:44,280 Speaker 1: it takes, do you think we'll get do you think 153 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 1: we'll see quite a bit of rain regardless or too 154 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:47,119 Speaker 1: early to tell? 155 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 2: Look, it is too early to tell, but my gut 156 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 2: tells me looking at the weather conditions across the top 157 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 2: end of the moment and the wave that the system's 158 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,559 Speaker 2: orientating itself north of the teev Island, and the slow movement, 159 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 2: I think it's a greater than fifty percent chance Ada 160 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:04,479 Speaker 2: will have some impacts this weekend. So it's a fairly 161 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 2: substantial risk this far outside. I think everybody just needs 162 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 2: to pay attention, don't panic, be alert but not alarmed, 163 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 2: and just be prepared. We lot time. 164 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, good advice. Well, Carl Linders, We'll probably catch up 165 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:17,200 Speaker 1: with you again throughout the week. 166 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 2: I Regon