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Speaker 1: Well, I think we're all cautiously watching at the moment

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Speaker 1: as a tropical low in the Coral Sea is expected

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Speaker 1: to crossland near Weeper in far North Queensland later this week.

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Speaker 1: So what it does next is obviously a concern for

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Speaker 1: Territorians who are already grappling with flooding and a massive cleanup.

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Speaker 1: Now joining us on the line is seeing a meteorologists

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Speaker 1: from the Bureau of Meteorology, Miriam Bradbury. Good morning to you, Miriam.

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Speaker 2: Good morning. How are you going?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? Really well, Miriam, where is that low at the moment?

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Speaker 2: So the loan not as thirty four U is still

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Speaker 2: south of the Solomon Island, so still well to the

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Speaker 2: east of the Queensland coast. But it is likely to

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Speaker 2: track westwards over the coming days, strengthening as it moves

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Speaker 2: closer to Australia, likely to reach the tropical cycle of intensity,

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Speaker 2: or I should say there's a high chance of it

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Speaker 2: reaching that tropical cycle in intensity from tomorrow evening and

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Speaker 2: it will keep moving west across the weekend and likely

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Speaker 2: into early next week too, and that's when we're going

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Speaker 2: to start seeing the impacts for the territory.

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Speaker 1: So Mariam, what is the modeling showing at this point,

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Speaker 1: like from what I can see on that seven day

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Speaker 1: four caast thirty four, you looks like it's going to

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Speaker 1: sort of head across towards Weeper and then towards the

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Speaker 1: northern territory. I mean, are we thinking that it will

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Speaker 1: be its cyclone intensity when it comes to the end,

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Speaker 1: or is it a bit too early to tell.

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Speaker 2: It's a little too early to tell. It really depends

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Speaker 2: on how the system interacts with those warm waters over

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Speaker 2: the Gulf of Carpent Terrier. So this chance, at this

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Speaker 2: point in time, there's a high chance that it will

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Speaker 2: be a cyclone once it crosses those far northern parts

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Speaker 2: of the Cape York Peninsula. It'll weaken as it moves

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Speaker 2: over land, as tropical cyclones generally do, but it's how

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Speaker 2: much more energy it manages to pick up when it's

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Speaker 2: over those warm waters. Even if it crosses the top

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Speaker 2: end as a tropical low rather than a tropical cyclone.

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Speaker 2: It will, however, as we're all a well aware, still

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Speaker 2: bring us the rain, the strong winds that risk a

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Speaker 2: flooding to So at this point in time, it's a

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Speaker 2: watch this space as to whether or not it's a

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Speaker 2: tropical cyclone when it reaches in Northern Territory. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: it really will depend on how it develops over the

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Speaker 2: Gulf through the later part of this week.

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Speaker 1: Ordinarily, I think we'd all be quite worried about, you know,

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Speaker 1: the tropical cyclone, well, the tropical load turning into a cyclone.

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Speaker 1: I think at this point we're probably all just worried

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Speaker 1: that it's going to bring a huge amount of rain

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Speaker 1: or whether it could bring, you know, a cyclone or rain.

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Speaker 1: Either way, I reckon it's going to be tough for us.

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Speaker 1: Do we have any idea Again, I know it's so

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Speaker 1: early days, but any idea you know, if it does

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Speaker 1: get to us here in the top end where it's

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Speaker 1: sort of tracking towards, and just how much rain we

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Speaker 1: might see.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, unfortunately that's still under a little bit of

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Speaker 2: uncertainty at this point in time too. It's certainly something

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Speaker 2: that our tropical cyclone team is making a really close

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Speaker 2: assessment of, particularly with regards to that recent incredible devastating

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Speaker 2: flooding that we've seen across the Daily and Catherine River catchments.

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Speaker 2: I think that the main element of uncertainty is the timing,

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Speaker 2: so how quickly it moves across funnel in Queensland, how

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Speaker 2: quickly it moves across the gulf, As to when exactly

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Speaker 2: it's going to reach the top end. There are also

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Speaker 2: sort of you know, little influences in the atmosphere which

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Speaker 2: may determine whether it crosses through those central parts of

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Speaker 2: the top end or acrosses right across the base of

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Speaker 2: the top end, sort of making a bullseye for Catherine

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Speaker 2: or that sort of thing. But at this stage we

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Speaker 2: are expecting to see some of those heavier falls. Really

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Speaker 2: ramping up across the eastern top end from Saturday and

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Speaker 2: then pushing west across the top end through Sunday is

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Speaker 2: the most likely scenario as this system moves through Miriam.

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Speaker 1: What could that mean, you know, if we do get

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Speaker 1: those heavy downfalls from Saturday, what could that mean for

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Speaker 1: you know, for some of those areas that are already

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Speaker 1: quite flooded.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So, unfortunately, whether it's a tropical low tropical cyclone,

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Speaker 2: as we've just said, we are likely to see those

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Speaker 2: heavier falls, and given that everything is so saturated, the

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Speaker 2: river catchments are so swollen with floodwaters already, we are

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Speaker 2: likely to see some response across the weekend. Going into

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Speaker 2: early next week. So at this stage it really still

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Speaker 2: as big caveat being It depends on how strong the

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Speaker 2: system is, how much rain it brings, where it moves,

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Speaker 2: et cetera. But it is possible that we could see

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Speaker 2: renewed flooding at Catherine and across the Catherine River catchment

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Speaker 2: more broadly over the weekend. At this point in time,

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Speaker 2: you know, we might see similar levels to last week,

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Speaker 2: but more likely it will be a bit lower in

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Speaker 2: terms of the daily river. We have a scene that

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Speaker 2: very slow peak being reached, but so it's going to

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Speaker 2: continue in this slow recession. The river level slowly coming down,

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Speaker 2: but we might see a slight renewed rise as this

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Speaker 2: system moves through. But the river levels are already so

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Speaker 2: so high, as we're all well aware. It's sort of,

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Speaker 2: you know, just just a little drop on top of that,

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Speaker 2: but definitely one to watch, I think, particularly for the

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Speaker 2: Catherine region, which has already sort of come down quite

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Speaker 2: considerably compared to what we were looking at this time

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Speaker 2: last week.

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Speaker 1: Miriam. It's crazy is that last year we were sort

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Speaker 1: of talking about how late the wet season was, how

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Speaker 1: we didn't feel as though we'd really you know, I

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Speaker 1: had them on sooon fully hit and then this year

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Speaker 1: it has just been the total opposite.

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Speaker 2: It feels absolutely we've had it. It feels like every

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Speaker 2: second week we get a new tropical low moving moving

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Speaker 2: across our listening area, bringing us those renewed flooding risks,

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Speaker 2: and it's sort of you know, our communities, our systems

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Speaker 2: that are in place, can barely recover from one before

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Speaker 2: we have to deal with the next one. But I

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Speaker 2: guess that's the nature of that monsoon or tropical weather

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Speaker 2: that is, unfortunately what Australia decides to throw at us

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Speaker 2: every summer, is this potential variation in the weather and

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Speaker 2: in the severity of that weather too.

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Speaker 1: Miriam, what is your message for Territorians this morning. I

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Speaker 1: know we've got a lot of listeners in Catherine up

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Speaker 1: here in the top end as well. People will be

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Speaker 1: hearing this this morning and they're probably feeling quite concerned.

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Speaker 1: But it sounds like the Bureau's keeping a really really

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Speaker 1: close eye on things.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely they are. It's really the main focus of

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Speaker 2: our tropical cyclone team. They'll be analyzing the new model

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Speaker 2: guidance as it comes out. They'll be monitoring this system

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Speaker 2: as it continues to develop over the Coral Sea, and

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Speaker 2: they'll be updating our tropical cyclone forecast and when we

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Speaker 2: get there, our tropical cyclone products, so track maps, warning areas,

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Speaker 2: that sort of thing as often as needed to get

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Speaker 2: that story most accurate for the people who need to

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Speaker 2: hear it. So at this point in time, it's a

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Speaker 2: period where we just need to be keeping an eye

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Speaker 2: on those forecasts because that will give us a clearer

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Speaker 2: indication of when we might be expecting those impacts to develop. Now.

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Speaker 2: Communities through these areas, of course, are already bearing the

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Speaker 2: wish of this flooding that we've already seen, but being

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Speaker 2: in continued contact with the emergency services is also essential

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Speaker 2: at this time to prepare for those renewed risks as well.

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Speaker 1: Well. Miriam Bradbury, really appreciate your time this morning. It

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Speaker 1: sounds like we'll probably be catching up with the Bureau

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Speaker 1: a little bit more often this week. Thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for joining us on the show.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: Thank you