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Speaker 1: Now Russia reportedly wants to establish a base for its

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Speaker 1: air force in Papua, which is indeed thirteen hundred kilometers

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Speaker 1: from Darwin. Australian officials investigating that situation now we know

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Speaker 1: that it was indeed reported on Tuesday or military website

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Speaker 1: Jane's reporting that Russian officials had approached Jakarta and requested

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Speaker 1: its aerospace forces be given access to the base less

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Speaker 1: than two hours flying time from US here in Darwin.

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Speaker 1: The Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi and the Foreign Minister Penny

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Speaker 1: Wong yesterday refusing to confirm whether Jakarta received a request

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Speaker 1: by Moscow to use Indonesia as a base for Russian warplanes.

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Speaker 1: We also know that the Chief Minister Leofanocchiaro spoke about

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Speaker 1: this yesterday at a press conference where she was indeed asked.

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Speaker 1: She said it highlighted the need for a stronger defense

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Speaker 1: presence in the top end, telling journalists this does highlight

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Speaker 1: the strategic importance of the northern territory and the defense

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Speaker 1: security of this nation. It is something that successive federal governments,

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Speaker 1: she says, have completely dropped the ball on. Now joining

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Speaker 1: us for some insight is the Australian Strategic Policy Institute's

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Speaker 1: senior analyst, Doctor Malcolm Davers. Good morning to you, Dr Davis.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, lovely to have you.

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Speaker 1: On the show. Now tell me what was your reaction

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Speaker 1: when this report first came to light a little earlier

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Speaker 1: in the week.

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Speaker 2: Look, I was quite shocked. I was actually at a

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Speaker 2: conference organized by James and spoke to the author of

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Speaker 2: the report and he basically said that the Russians had

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Speaker 2: made this approach to the Indonesian government. He indicated that

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Speaker 2: the approach by the Russians was under consideration at the time,

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Speaker 2: and so I was quite concerned because if the Russian

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Speaker 2: did in fact establish a permanent access to the site

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Speaker 2: this airbase on Biek Island, which is in thirteen h

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Speaker 2: o clometers north of Darwin, that would give them the ability,

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Speaker 2: obviously to threaten much of northern Australia a wartime scenario,

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Speaker 2: but also to attack our key allies such as the

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Speaker 2: US and Japan across the end of Pacific region. And

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Speaker 2: these bombers that they're talking about are nuclear capable, so

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Speaker 2: they can carry nuclear tipped missiles. So it was a

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Speaker 2: very serious indication of a rapid deterioration now security outlook.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, and yesterday we were then in the situation,

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Speaker 1: of course where the Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi and the

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Speaker 1: Foreign Minister Penny Wong refusing to confirm whether Jakarta had

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Speaker 1: received a request by Moscow or not. But from what

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Speaker 1: you are saying, the author of that report has said

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Speaker 1: that this absolutely did happen.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think it's highly likely that Moscow did actually

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Speaker 2: put in a formal request to the Indonesian government. Now,

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Speaker 2: what the Indonesian government are saying is that it's not

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Speaker 2: going to happen, that there's no possibility of Russia having

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Speaker 2: permanent access to that airbase. But it's important to note

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Speaker 2: that in twenty seventeen, the Russians did actually operate two

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Speaker 2: t U ninety five Bear bombers from that airbase as

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Speaker 2: part of an exercise.

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Speaker 1: What what you did.

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Speaker 2: Them twenty seventeen and that resulted in Royal Australian Air

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Speaker 2: Force Air Defense units probably at RAF Tindal, going on

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Speaker 2: heightened alert. As a result, we've also seen Indonesia drawing

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Speaker 2: closer to Russia under the current Proboa administration. They've seen

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Speaker 2: Indonesian Russian joint naval exercises recently, So there was that

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Speaker 2: that context which this report came out of that I

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Speaker 2: think justified some concern that the Indonesians have said it's

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Speaker 2: not going to happen. That doesn't mean that the Russians

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Speaker 2: didn't actually put in a formal.

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Speaker 1: Request, Doctor Davis, What do you think it sees you

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Speaker 1: know about the current state of play within the world

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Speaker 1: right now? We know that we're in quite uncertain times

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Speaker 1: in a lot of ways, but is this a situation

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Speaker 1: where Russia's flexing their muscle.

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Speaker 2: Look, Russia and China are flexing their muscle. They are

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Speaker 2: working together along with North Korea and Iran as part

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Speaker 2: of an access of authoritarian states to directly challenge liberal

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Speaker 2: democracies around the world. Ukraine, for example, is one part

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Speaker 2: of that. But also you're seeing the Chinese moving aggressively

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Speaker 2: around Taiwan and preparing for the possibility of an invasion

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Speaker 2: of Taiwan by China. And I think that when you

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Speaker 2: see sort of suggestions of a Russian presence in the

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Speaker 2: Indo Pacific region, that could be part of a coordinated

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Speaker 2: plan by this access of authoritarian states to challenge Western

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Speaker 2: dominance in the world. So I think we are saying

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Speaker 2: we're uncertain times. There's probably an understatement. I think we're

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Speaker 2: in extremely dangerous times, probably the most dangerous times we've

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Speaker 2: seen since the end of the Second World War, and

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Speaker 2: I think we need to be ready for all sorts

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Speaker 2: of possibilities in that regard.

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Speaker 1: And so what do we need to do to make

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Speaker 1: sure that we are ready? Because I know the Chief Minister,

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Speaker 1: Our Chief Minister lif Nokiao yesterday said at a press

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Speaker 1: conference that she had not been briefed on this situation,

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Speaker 1: and she said that it does highlight the strategic importance

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Speaker 1: of the Northern Territory and the defense security of this nation.

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Speaker 1: She reckons it's something that successive federal governments have completely

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Speaker 1: dropped the ball on. But what needs to be happening

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Speaker 1: for us here in Northern Australia as we see this

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Speaker 1: uncertainty or these quite unprecedented times.

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Speaker 2: Look, I think if there is a crisis in the future,

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Speaker 2: possibly emerging as a result of a Chinese invasion across

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Speaker 2: the Straits to Taiwan, and you know there was to

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Speaker 2: be a tax on Australia itself as part of that,

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Speaker 2: the attacks would come in through Northern Australia. You would

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Speaker 2: see bases and facilities across the North being attacked by

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Speaker 2: long range missiles, and you know, these bombers potentially could

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Speaker 2: have operated out of would have could have been part

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Speaker 2: of that. I do think that, you know, whichever party

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Speaker 2: wins on May third does need to take defense much

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Speaker 2: more seriously than is currently iver party are suggesting they

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Speaker 2: will in terms of defense spending, that the proposed levels

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Speaker 2: of defense spending, be it by Labor or by the

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Speaker 2: Liberal National Coalition, are grossly inadequate. And I think what

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Speaker 2: we need to be doing is dramatically boosting defense spending

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Speaker 2: much more rapidly and acquiring capabilities much more rapidly. And

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Speaker 2: part of those capabilities would include hardening the North and

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Speaker 2: strengthening our ability to defend the North against these sorts

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Speaker 2: of threats.

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Speaker 1: And doctor Davis, what might that look like for us?

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Speaker 1: You know, to put it in real layman's terms.

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Speaker 2: Well, essentially, what it means is increasing the number of

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Speaker 2: base facilities up in the North that can support ADF

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Speaker 2: and Allied units and then hardening those bases against the

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Speaker 2: sorts of attacks we could see. So, you know, one

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Speaker 2: of the things that the nine twenty twenty three Defense

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Speaker 2: Strategic Reviews suggested was rapidly deploying integrated air and missile

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Speaker 2: defense systems. The current government has chosen to ignore that

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Speaker 2: and kick the can down the road. So what we

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Speaker 2: should be doing is building up our defensive capabilities, including

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Speaker 2: those integrated air and missile defense systems that can defend

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Speaker 2: those bases against long range missile threats that China, for example,

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Speaker 2: can conmount. And in other words, it could mean a

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Speaker 2: much more robust military presence across the North to be

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Speaker 2: able to defend Northern Australia. Not so much against an invasion.

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Speaker 2: I don't think that's going to happen, but in terms

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Speaker 2: of defending against long range missiles, the sorts of things

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Speaker 2: that you could see launch from Chinese naval vessels that

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Speaker 2: recently circumnavigated Australia, and our ability to detect and attack

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Speaker 2: an enemy force at great range and attack that force

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Speaker 2: from Northern Australia.

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Speaker 1: So it doesn't But from what you're saying, I get

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Speaker 1: the impression it doesn't sound like we need to be alarmed,

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Speaker 1: but we need to beef up, we need to be prepared.

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Speaker 2: We should be alarmed in the sense that things are

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Speaker 2: moving rapidly, in the sense that we don't have a

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Speaker 2: lot of time. You know, there are a lot of

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Speaker 2: key thinkers in the US, including in the US military,

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Speaker 2: are suggesting that a crisis across the Taiwan Straits could

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Speaker 2: occur in twenty twenty seven. We're in two years time,

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Speaker 2: so that's not a lot of time to prepare. So

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Speaker 2: in that sense, I think we should be alarmed, but

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Speaker 2: we should use that alarm to focus our policy and

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Speaker 2: our efforts towards strengthening those defense capabilities. We shouldn't panic,

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Speaker 2: We should be alarmed.

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Speaker 1: Do you feel as of the Australian government or you know,

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Speaker 1: either side? I suppose because we are in absolute election mode.

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Speaker 1: But do you feel as though they are then, you know,

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Speaker 1: negotiating and talking with the US, you know, with the

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Speaker 1: US government in the way that we potentially.

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Speaker 2: Need to be right now, well, I think the US

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Speaker 2: government is making it clear to us that we need

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Speaker 2: to lift our game. The US Undersectuary for Strategic Policy

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Speaker 2: and the Partner of Defense, Elbrich Colby, has made it

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Speaker 2: crystal clear to us that we need to shift defense

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Speaker 2: spending up to a floor of three percent GDP as

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Speaker 2: soon as possible. If you look at the current government's policies.

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Speaker 2: They're talking about two point three to three percent by

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Speaker 2: twenty thirty three, and the coalition is suggesting two point

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Speaker 2: five percent by about the same time. So neither party

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Speaker 2: have basically done what they need to do to prepare,

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Speaker 2: which is to increase that defense spending as rapidly as possible.

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Speaker 2: I think we obviously are talking to the Americans. We

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Speaker 2: talk to the Americans all the time, as we do

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Speaker 2: with the Japanese and the South Koreans and others. But

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Speaker 2: come the election, whichever party forms government, they will come

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Speaker 2: under intense pressure from the Trump administration to lift their

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Speaker 2: game and spend more on defense than is currently planned for.

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Speaker 2: Current defense policy documents are inadequate to deal with the

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Speaker 2: threat that we're facing.

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Speaker 1: And doctor Davis, it's interesting because you know, whenever we

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Speaker 1: then have the Defense Minister on the show, whenever we

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Speaker 1: talk defense, you know, you get the impression, or they

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Speaker 1: certainly try to give off the impression that, you know,

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Speaker 1: we've got more than enough troops up here in the

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Speaker 1: top end, and we've got various different exercises happening with

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Speaker 1: different countries, and you know that they're doing enough, but

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Speaker 1: it really doesn't sound.

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Speaker 2: Like we are well, you know, as I said, we

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Speaker 2: need to prepare for the right sort of threat. I

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Speaker 2: don't think anyone's seriously thinking that Northern Australia is going

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Speaker 2: to be invaded by China, but I do think we

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Speaker 2: need to be starting to think about how we defend

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Speaker 2: the North from long range vessile attacks. For example, that

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Speaker 2: you know, the Chinese have a missile capability that can

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Speaker 2: attack Darwin and Tindall from the South China Sea and

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Speaker 2: we have nothing to defend the game that sort of capability.

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Speaker 2: They're bringing on board hypersonic weapons that can essentially strike

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Speaker 2: at a target at very long range, at very high speed.

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Speaker 2: You know, naval capabilities, air capabilities that can all strike

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Speaker 2: at our key NOORBN bases and not just military bases,

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Speaker 2: but also civilian targets. If they hit our logistics, our fuel, infrastructure,

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Speaker 2: energy generation, all of that, then they can essentially leave

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Speaker 2: us with an inability to function. So it's about hardening

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Speaker 2: the North, it's about protecting and defending ourselves, and it's

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Speaker 2: about projecting power from the North into the Endopacific to

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Speaker 2: strike at a target or an adversary while they're still

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Speaker 2: a long way away.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Davis, I know there'll be some people listen this morning,

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Speaker 1: listening this morning who might think, oh, this is a

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Speaker 1: bit of scare mongering. I mean, what would you say

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Speaker 1: to them?

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Speaker 2: It's not scare mongering. I mean my job as a

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Speaker 2: strategic analyst is to think about war and to think

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Speaker 2: about future war. I do it every day. And the

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Speaker 2: way I'm seeing the world going at the moment, not

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Speaker 2: just in the Inno Pacific but also in Europe, we

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Speaker 2: are heading towards some very dangerous times. I would love

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Speaker 2: to see the world as it was, maybe back in

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Speaker 2: the nineteen nineties, when really there wasn't a threat of

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Speaker 2: major power war. But times have changed. We've got a

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Speaker 2: very different situation now, and we are very much in

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Speaker 2: a situation now comparable to the mid to late nineteen

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Speaker 2: thirties where we do need to be thinking about these

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Speaker 2: threats and we do need to take them seriously, because

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Speaker 2: if we don't, and these sorts of challenges happen and

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Speaker 2: we end up in a major war, we lose that war,

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Speaker 2: then the cost to this country will be immeasurably greater

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Speaker 2: than the cost we would pay by being ready well.

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Speaker 1: Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst doctor Malcolm Davis. I

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Speaker 1: really appreciate your time this morning, some wonderful insight and

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Speaker 1: real food for thought. I think potential particular LEO should

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Speaker 1: say as we are edge closer to the election and

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Speaker 1: I've no doubt that we're going to end up with

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Speaker 1: Australia's leaders in the top end at different times. So

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Speaker 1: you've given me some good things to ask about.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's my pleasure, always happy to help.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Thanks for your time. I really

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Speaker 1: appreciate it.