WEBVTT - Trump, Biden, and what we learnt from Super Tuesday

0:00:00.640 --> 0:00:02.920
<v Speaker 1>Already and this is this is the.

0:00:02.960 --> 0:00:06.960
<v Speaker 2>Daily This is the Daily ohs oh, now it makes sense.

0:00:15.280 --> 0:00:18.200
<v Speaker 1>Good morning and welcome to the Daily ODS. It's Thursday,

0:00:18.239 --> 0:00:20.840
<v Speaker 1>the seventh of March. I'm Zara, I'm emma.

0:00:20.880 --> 0:00:22.520
<v Speaker 2>I'm the editor of the Daily ODS.

0:00:22.920 --> 0:00:26.000
<v Speaker 1>This week, millions of people in the US voted in

0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:29.960
<v Speaker 1>their state's primary elections in a day known as Super Tuesday.

0:00:30.360 --> 0:00:33.320
<v Speaker 1>Super Tuesday is here. Today. People in more than a

0:00:33.400 --> 0:00:36.680
<v Speaker 1>dozen states will vote in the largest single day voting

0:00:36.720 --> 0:00:38.560
<v Speaker 1>event of the primary season.

0:00:38.720 --> 0:00:41.800
<v Speaker 3>They call it Super Tuesday for a reason.

0:00:43.800 --> 0:00:47.159
<v Speaker 2>Super Tuesday is one of the most important days in

0:00:47.200 --> 0:00:51.520
<v Speaker 2>the US presidential election cycle. But as anyone listening might

0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:54.240
<v Speaker 2>have worked out, the electoral system in the US is

0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:58.560
<v Speaker 2>pretty different to how things work here in Australia. So

0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:01.480
<v Speaker 2>we're going to take you through Super Tuesday, how it

0:01:01.560 --> 0:01:04.840
<v Speaker 2>all works, and what this sweek's polls actually mean in

0:01:04.880 --> 0:01:05.800
<v Speaker 2>today's deep dive.

0:01:05.920 --> 0:01:12.560
<v Speaker 1>But first, Zara, what's making headlights? Prime Minister Anthony Alberzi

0:01:12.680 --> 0:01:16.120
<v Speaker 1>has announced two billion dollars in trade and investment funding

0:01:16.200 --> 0:01:19.360
<v Speaker 1>in Southeast Asia. The funding is designed to support a

0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:22.200
<v Speaker 1>transition to clean energy in the region and the development

0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:26.160
<v Speaker 1>of new infrastructure. It comes as the Association of Southeast

0:01:26.200 --> 0:01:29.399
<v Speaker 1>Asian Nation Summit so Asian came to a close in

0:01:29.440 --> 0:01:30.360
<v Speaker 1>Melbourne yesterday.

0:01:32.520 --> 0:01:36.600
<v Speaker 2>Australia's economy grew zero point two percent from October to

0:01:36.720 --> 0:01:39.840
<v Speaker 2>December in twenty twenty three, according to new data from

0:01:40.000 --> 0:01:44.240
<v Speaker 2>the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This figure is the growth

0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:47.480
<v Speaker 2>of the gross domestic product or GDP, which is the

0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:50.720
<v Speaker 2>total value of all goods and services produced within a country.

0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:54.520
<v Speaker 2>The Head of National Accounts at the ABS said government

0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:58.160
<v Speaker 2>spending and private business investments were the main causes of

0:01:58.320 --> 0:01:59.640
<v Speaker 2>growth during the period.

0:02:01.520 --> 0:02:05.160
<v Speaker 1>Peru's Prime Minister, Alberto Otarala has stepped down over an

0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:09.600
<v Speaker 1>alleged audio leak accusing him of corruption. The audio recording

0:02:09.639 --> 0:02:12.239
<v Speaker 1>was allegedly of the Prime minister from before his time

0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:15.000
<v Speaker 1>in office, speaking to a woman about how much he

0:02:15.080 --> 0:02:17.320
<v Speaker 1>loved her and telling her to send him his CV.

0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:21.280
<v Speaker 1>The woman was later awarded contracts to carry out government work.

0:02:21.760 --> 0:02:24.560
<v Speaker 1>The Prime minister has denied any wrongdoing that announced in

0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:27.440
<v Speaker 1>a letter to Peru's president that he is formally resigning

0:02:27.480 --> 0:02:31.600
<v Speaker 1>as prime minister after just over a year in office.

0:02:32.160 --> 0:02:35.760
<v Speaker 2>And today's good news, global health donors have announced new

0:02:35.840 --> 0:02:39.840
<v Speaker 2>funding worth nine hundred and twenty million dollars to eliminate

0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:44.320
<v Speaker 2>cervical cancer. Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer

0:02:44.400 --> 0:02:48.200
<v Speaker 2>in women, and over ninety percent of deaths from cervical

0:02:48.240 --> 0:02:52.040
<v Speaker 2>cancer occur in low and middle income countries. The new

0:02:52.040 --> 0:02:54.919
<v Speaker 2>funding aims to meet a number of targets by twenty thirty,

0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:59.040
<v Speaker 2>such as vaccinating ninety percent of girls against HPV, a

0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:02.520
<v Speaker 2>precursor to XIX cervical cancer, by the age of fifteen,

0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:06.560
<v Speaker 2>and ensuring that women with cervical disease receive the correct treatment.

0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:10.600
<v Speaker 2>Funding donors include the World Bank, UNISEF, and the Bill

0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:12.480
<v Speaker 2>and Melinda Gates Foundation.

0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:16.720
<v Speaker 3>ZARA.

0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:20.760
<v Speaker 2>One of the biggest tests for US presidential candidates has

0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:24.360
<v Speaker 2>finally come and gone. Super Tuesday. I feel like we

0:03:24.360 --> 0:03:27.480
<v Speaker 2>were hearing about this day for a long time, and

0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:30.399
<v Speaker 2>if you're listening wondering why we're talking about a Tuesday

0:03:30.440 --> 0:03:32.640
<v Speaker 2>on a Thursday, that has a lot to do with

0:03:32.800 --> 0:03:33.880
<v Speaker 2>time zones.

0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:35.920
<v Speaker 1>I think this is the hardest maths we've ever had

0:03:35.960 --> 0:03:37.880
<v Speaker 1>to do, truly perplexing.

0:03:38.400 --> 0:03:42.160
<v Speaker 2>Voting across more than a dozen US states didn't actually

0:03:42.160 --> 0:03:44.960
<v Speaker 2>conclude until mid to late in the afternoon for most

0:03:44.960 --> 0:03:49.160
<v Speaker 2>of us. Here in Australia on Wednesday. That's why Thursday

0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:51.240
<v Speaker 2>morning we are talking about Super Tuesday.

0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:53.680
<v Speaker 1>I want to get to Super Tuesday in just a second.

0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:57.840
<v Speaker 1>But Super Tuesday is just one element of a vastly

0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:00.440
<v Speaker 1>different election process in the US. The what we have

0:04:00.520 --> 0:04:02.760
<v Speaker 1>here in Australia. Can you just give us a bit

0:04:02.800 --> 0:04:04.680
<v Speaker 1>of a lay of the land. How does it actually

0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:05.440
<v Speaker 1>work in the US.

0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:08.280
<v Speaker 2>So the first thing to say is that there are

0:04:08.320 --> 0:04:10.480
<v Speaker 2>two major parties in the US. So we have the

0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:14.440
<v Speaker 2>Republican Party, the traditionally more conservative or right leaning party,

0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:17.919
<v Speaker 2>and the Democrats with the sort of traditionally more progressive

0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:21.320
<v Speaker 2>or left leaning values. Joe Biden, the current President of

0:04:21.360 --> 0:04:25.000
<v Speaker 2>the US, is a Democrat. So going into a US election,

0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:29.000
<v Speaker 2>there might be anywhere from one to a handful of

0:04:29.080 --> 0:04:33.440
<v Speaker 2>hopefuls on both sides who are competing to become their

0:04:33.480 --> 0:04:38.040
<v Speaker 2>party's official presidential candidate, and that candidate is known as

0:04:38.080 --> 0:04:41.839
<v Speaker 2>the party's nominee. So when it comes to the lead

0:04:41.960 --> 0:04:45.320
<v Speaker 2>up to a presidential election, each of the fifty states

0:04:45.320 --> 0:04:49.159
<v Speaker 2>in the US has its own rules, but most hold

0:04:49.200 --> 0:04:52.880
<v Speaker 2>a vote called a primary ballot or primaries. You've probably

0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:55.800
<v Speaker 2>heard yeah discussed, and this is where voters have their

0:04:55.839 --> 0:04:59.919
<v Speaker 2>say on who they think should be their party's presidential candidate.

0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:03.640
<v Speaker 1>So just to clarify here, we're talking about states going

0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:06.640
<v Speaker 1>to vote for who the candidate for the major parties

0:05:06.640 --> 0:05:09.640
<v Speaker 1>should be, not who should actually be president. Yep, exactly.

0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:13.240
<v Speaker 2>So if we were in California on Tuesday, we might

0:05:13.320 --> 0:05:16.960
<v Speaker 2>go to the polls to decide who our favorite Republican

0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:20.320
<v Speaker 2>candidate was or who our favorite Democrat candidate was. A

0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:23.880
<v Speaker 2>small number of states hold something called a caucus instead

0:05:23.880 --> 0:05:27.120
<v Speaker 2>of a primary, and they're run by political parties where

0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:30.960
<v Speaker 2>registered members can cast their vote at a meeting. They

0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:33.840
<v Speaker 2>only happen in a few of those fifty states.

0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:37.520
<v Speaker 1>So those are primaries. What Super Tuesday then.

0:05:38.640 --> 0:05:43.400
<v Speaker 2>So Super Tuesday refers to a day, the first Tuesday

0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:47.200
<v Speaker 2>of March, when a group of states hold their primaries

0:05:47.240 --> 0:05:50.600
<v Speaker 2>on the same day, so a bunch of states. We're

0:05:50.640 --> 0:05:54.520
<v Speaker 2>talking sixteen this year, but that number varies from year

0:05:54.560 --> 0:05:58.520
<v Speaker 2>to year. It's not the day when the nominees are confirmed,

0:05:58.640 --> 0:06:03.000
<v Speaker 2>so the Republican nominee, Democrat nominee. It's a day that does,

0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:06.280
<v Speaker 2>give us, however, a pretty good idea of who will

0:06:06.440 --> 0:06:08.680
<v Speaker 2>ultimately lead each of the major.

0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:10.680
<v Speaker 1>Parties, because there are so many primaries in one day

0:06:10.720 --> 0:06:13.600
<v Speaker 1>that if you see someone sweeping all of those primaries,

0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:14.760
<v Speaker 1>it's a pretty clear indication.

0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:18.599
<v Speaker 2>Exactly. So the number of primaries varies every election on

0:06:18.640 --> 0:06:20.760
<v Speaker 2>Super Tuesday, as I said, but this year we had

0:06:20.760 --> 0:06:25.520
<v Speaker 2>those sixteen primaries all on the same day, hence Super Tuesday.

0:06:25.920 --> 0:06:28.920
<v Speaker 1>But it's very literal, Yeah, very literal. It's just super.

0:06:29.040 --> 0:06:30.960
<v Speaker 1>It's just big sixteen.

0:06:30.640 --> 0:06:32.640
<v Speaker 2>Is not a super as it's been before. To give

0:06:32.640 --> 0:06:35.320
<v Speaker 2>you a sense of how super it can get. Before

0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:38.560
<v Speaker 2>Obama became president in two thousand and eight, he faced

0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:43.159
<v Speaker 2>off with Hillary Clinton in twenty four Democrat contests for

0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:46.320
<v Speaker 2>the nomination for his party. So, okay, twenty four primaries

0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:47.400
<v Speaker 2>on that Super Tuesday.

0:06:47.920 --> 0:06:54.240
<v Speaker 1>Okay, So is there anything behind why Super Tuesday exists?

0:06:54.240 --> 0:06:56.320
<v Speaker 1>Like why is it on a Tuesday? We vote on

0:06:56.320 --> 0:06:58.279
<v Speaker 1>a Saturday. Why are they doing on a Tuesday? That

0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:00.440
<v Speaker 1>feels really inconvenient for everybody involved.

0:07:00.520 --> 0:07:02.600
<v Speaker 2>Yep, this is a really good question and one with

0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:06.159
<v Speaker 2>a pretty interesting answer, a little bit of a strange one.

0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:09.400
<v Speaker 2>Voting is not compulsory in the US, we should say

0:07:09.440 --> 0:07:13.560
<v Speaker 2>off the bat, But voting on a Tuesday is actually

0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:17.800
<v Speaker 2>an American tradition that dates back to the nineteenth century, right.

0:07:17.840 --> 0:07:18.240
<v Speaker 1>Get this.

0:07:18.520 --> 0:07:23.239
<v Speaker 2>It's because back in the day, Christian farmers needed enough

0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:26.240
<v Speaker 2>time to travel from their towns and their farms to

0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:31.360
<v Speaker 2>voting booths in voting centers and cities after Sunday church services.

0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:34.720
<v Speaker 2>So Tuesday was considered the least inconvenient because it would

0:07:34.760 --> 0:07:37.800
<v Speaker 2>be like, farmer wakes up, goes to church on Sunday

0:07:38.080 --> 0:07:40.440
<v Speaker 2>and then they have enough time to get the horse

0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:42.960
<v Speaker 2>and cart into town to vote on a Tuesday.

0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:45.360
<v Speaker 1>Wow, so go Yeah, that's why.

0:07:45.640 --> 0:07:49.240
<v Speaker 2>And both the November presidential election and Super Tuesdays fall

0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:51.960
<v Speaker 2>on the first Tuesday of the month, So the final

0:07:52.160 --> 0:07:55.320
<v Speaker 2>big US election day moment that will also come on

0:07:55.360 --> 0:07:56.480
<v Speaker 2>a Tuesday this year.

0:07:56.800 --> 0:07:59.800
<v Speaker 1>I am so looking forward to using that fact at

0:07:59.800 --> 0:08:02.320
<v Speaker 1>a trivia night and never again at any point in

0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:04.760
<v Speaker 1>my life. It's a good one. Let's bring ourselves back

0:08:04.760 --> 0:08:07.520
<v Speaker 1>into the twenty first century. What do we need to

0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:09.280
<v Speaker 1>know about the Super Tuesday results?

0:08:09.800 --> 0:08:13.200
<v Speaker 2>So I'm going to focus more on the Republican primaries

0:08:13.240 --> 0:08:16.560
<v Speaker 2>here because President Joe Biden is expected to be chosen

0:08:16.600 --> 0:08:19.760
<v Speaker 2>as the Democrat nominee and he has no serious challenges,

0:08:20.400 --> 0:08:25.120
<v Speaker 2>but Republican voters this week in states like California, Alabama, Virginia,

0:08:25.320 --> 0:08:28.080
<v Speaker 2>just to name a few, were tasked with choosing between

0:08:28.240 --> 0:08:33.280
<v Speaker 2>the former US President Donald Trump and his last legitimate challenger,

0:08:33.480 --> 0:08:35.000
<v Speaker 2>Nicky Hayley, who.

0:08:34.840 --> 0:08:37.400
<v Speaker 1>We have spoken about a number of times exactly.

0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:40.600
<v Speaker 2>So going into Super Tuesday, they were the remaining two

0:08:40.760 --> 0:08:45.160
<v Speaker 2>Republican candidates in these primaries. Nicki Haley a quick reminder,

0:08:45.320 --> 0:08:48.679
<v Speaker 2>the former governor of South Carolina, a former UN ambassador,

0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:52.480
<v Speaker 2>and despite losing in almost every primary before this week

0:08:52.600 --> 0:08:55.560
<v Speaker 2>except Washington, where there's I'm sure a joke here about

0:08:55.559 --> 0:08:58.320
<v Speaker 2>how there are less than five Republicans in the state

0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:01.640
<v Speaker 2>of Washington, Hailey had vowed to hang in there. She

0:09:01.920 --> 0:09:04.160
<v Speaker 2>promised voters that she was going to stick it out

0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:07.560
<v Speaker 2>to at least Super Tuesday as an alternative to Trump.

0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:11.760
<v Speaker 3>South Carolina has spoken, We're the fourth state to do so.

0:09:12.200 --> 0:09:15.480
<v Speaker 3>In the next ten days, another twenty one states and

0:09:15.679 --> 0:09:24.280
<v Speaker 3>territories will speak. They have the right to a real choice,

0:09:24.600 --> 0:09:31.679
<v Speaker 3>not a Soviet style election with only one candidate, and

0:09:31.840 --> 0:09:34.559
<v Speaker 3>I have a duty to give them that choice.

0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:37.960
<v Speaker 2>So, going into Super Tuesday, then this week, Trump was

0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:43.880
<v Speaker 2>considered the overwhelming favorite, and the results are consistent with

0:09:44.000 --> 0:09:47.280
<v Speaker 2>that trend. Nikki Haley won in at least the state

0:09:47.440 --> 0:09:51.200
<v Speaker 2>of Vermont with fifty point one percent of the vote,

0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:54.240
<v Speaker 2>But it does look like, at least at the time

0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:57.800
<v Speaker 2>of recording, Trump has won at least a dozen more

0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:00.640
<v Speaker 2>states in the primaries, and that paid the way for

0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:05.160
<v Speaker 2>what many have been expecting a twenty twenty presidential election

0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:08.320
<v Speaker 2>rematch showdown between Biden and Trump.

0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:10.120
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if we have the rights to play

0:10:10.160 --> 0:10:13.200
<v Speaker 1>Beyonce's d but if we did, I would play it

0:10:13.280 --> 0:10:13.600
<v Speaker 1>right now.

0:10:14.200 --> 0:10:15.920
<v Speaker 2>I would sing it right now if I didn't think

0:10:15.920 --> 0:10:17.520
<v Speaker 2>it would ruin everyone's day exactly.

0:10:17.559 --> 0:10:20.760
<v Speaker 1>Good morning, and here's our voices. Okay, So, if Donald

0:10:20.800 --> 0:10:25.120
<v Speaker 1>Trump is expected to be the Republican nominee, I presume

0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:28.240
<v Speaker 1>that means that Nicky Haley's presidential hope. So all bit over.

0:10:28.760 --> 0:10:32.800
<v Speaker 2>Trump's victories in all of these states, and they are many,

0:10:33.480 --> 0:10:38.440
<v Speaker 2>doesn't actually officially crown him the Republican nominee. So he

0:10:38.480 --> 0:10:42.800
<v Speaker 2>hasn't really formally secured that. But what he has secured

0:10:43.240 --> 0:10:48.800
<v Speaker 2>are lots of delegates, so bear with me. In most cases,

0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:52.440
<v Speaker 2>you can think of delegates as points. So during a

0:10:52.480 --> 0:10:56.480
<v Speaker 2>primary election, the candidate will win a certain number of

0:10:56.520 --> 0:10:59.280
<v Speaker 2>delegates or points, depending on how big the state is.

0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:03.040
<v Speaker 2>A state with more people like California will have more

0:11:03.040 --> 0:11:06.200
<v Speaker 2>delegates up for grabs whoever wins the primary vote, and

0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:08.360
<v Speaker 2>a small er state like Rhode Island will have fewer

0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:13.640
<v Speaker 2>delegates up for grabs. So whoever wins the majority of delegates,

0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:16.800
<v Speaker 2>so again, think of it like points, they will typically

0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:20.840
<v Speaker 2>become their party's nominee den party's presidential candidate.

0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:21.360
<v Speaker 1>Okay.

0:11:21.440 --> 0:11:25.240
<v Speaker 2>So, because Nikki Hayley has won barely any primaries, she

0:11:25.440 --> 0:11:26.760
<v Speaker 2>has barely any.

0:11:26.520 --> 0:11:32.000
<v Speaker 1>Delegates, understood, and so Trump would have many delegates hundreds Okay,

0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:35.440
<v Speaker 1>So if Trump has won that many delegates, it's likely

0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:39.400
<v Speaker 1>he could win the Republican nomination, But we have to

0:11:39.400 --> 0:11:41.400
<v Speaker 1>wait for that to be declared officially. Right when does

0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:41.920
<v Speaker 1>that happen?

0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:45.600
<v Speaker 2>Yep? So after Super Tuesday, there will still be a

0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:48.440
<v Speaker 2>few more primaries to come in the next couple of months,

0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:53.520
<v Speaker 2>and then both major parties will hold national conventions later

0:11:53.559 --> 0:11:57.080
<v Speaker 2>in the year where their presidential and vice presidential nominees

0:11:57.320 --> 0:12:00.600
<v Speaker 2>will be confirmed. So, even if we know that Trump

0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:05.320
<v Speaker 2>has hundreds and hundreds more delegates than any other challenger.

0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:06.599
<v Speaker 1>He has to wait for the big dance, has to

0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:07.079
<v Speaker 1>wait for the.

0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:10.240
<v Speaker 2>Big dance, and that will be for the Republican Party

0:12:10.280 --> 0:12:13.720
<v Speaker 2>in July in Milwaukee, and the Democratic Convention will be

0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:17.240
<v Speaker 2>in August in Chicago. Now that's where President Joe Biden

0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:20.000
<v Speaker 2>is expected to be chosen is his party's candidate for

0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:22.920
<v Speaker 2>the White House race. And then we can look forward

0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:26.280
<v Speaker 2>to three months of campaigning, which I'm sure will be

0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:30.480
<v Speaker 2>mutually respectful and exciting, before the US election on the

0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:33.240
<v Speaker 2>fifth of November, which as we know, is a Tuesday.

0:12:34.080 --> 0:12:37.200
<v Speaker 1>Now, we do know that before we wrap up. It

0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:40.040
<v Speaker 1>feels like we've been talking about a Biden Trump showdown

0:12:40.120 --> 0:12:42.720
<v Speaker 1>for a long time. At least it seems like that

0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:45.520
<v Speaker 1>was what was going to happen. We know both of

0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:48.040
<v Speaker 1>them can win an election. Both of them have won

0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:50.480
<v Speaker 1>an election. Do we have any more of a sense

0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:52.400
<v Speaker 1>of how things might turn out this time?

0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:57.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. It's a very different world for Donald Trump going

0:12:57.080 --> 0:12:59.680
<v Speaker 2>into this election than the context that he won the

0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:03.600
<v Speaker 2>twenty sixteen election, in he defeated Hillary Clinton, she was

0:13:03.640 --> 0:13:06.760
<v Speaker 2>the Democrat nominee at the time. But since then, you know,

0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:10.960
<v Speaker 2>we've seen numerous criminal cases brought against him, multiple lawsuits,

0:13:11.000 --> 0:13:14.200
<v Speaker 2>fraud investigations, and of course the fallout from the January

0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:16.679
<v Speaker 2>sixth attack on the Capitol in twenty twenty one.

0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:19.160
<v Speaker 1>But as chaotic is that.

0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:22.760
<v Speaker 2>Might all sound, and as wild as the headlines have

0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:27.080
<v Speaker 2>been in the years since his presidency, it doesn't really

0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:29.760
<v Speaker 2>seem to have impacted his popularity with voters.

0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:33.640
<v Speaker 1>But nor does it actually impact his ability to run exactly, like,

0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:37.000
<v Speaker 1>none of these criminal trials will actually make any difference

0:13:37.559 --> 0:13:39.640
<v Speaker 1>to his chances of being able to run.

0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:43.560
<v Speaker 2>And just this week we saw court action that was

0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:47.640
<v Speaker 2>overturned in the Supreme Court after states like Colorado vowed

0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:51.079
<v Speaker 2>to remove his name from the election ballot. That decision

0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:54.560
<v Speaker 2>was overturned in the US's highest court this week. So

0:13:55.040 --> 0:13:58.240
<v Speaker 2>you're absolutely right that despite those headlines, there hasn't really

0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:03.120
<v Speaker 2>been any significant obsticle stopping him from running. And if

0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:05.560
<v Speaker 2>we look at Super Tuesday, you know there were huge

0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:09.199
<v Speaker 2>swings towards him in some states like Texas and Alabama.

0:14:09.240 --> 0:14:13.200
<v Speaker 2>He won around eighty percent of the vote in those primaries.

0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:15.240
<v Speaker 1>So it's clear that he has both the popularity to

0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:19.480
<v Speaker 1>win the Republican nomination but also the ability to run

0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:23.040
<v Speaker 1>for president. What do we know about how this showdown

0:14:23.080 --> 0:14:25.880
<v Speaker 1>between Trump and Biden is shaping up. Do we have

0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:28.160
<v Speaker 1>any indication of I know, it was still a bit

0:14:28.200 --> 0:14:30.960
<v Speaker 1>far away of who could win in November.

0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:34.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, it's funny thinking about the fact that

0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:35.920
<v Speaker 2>the election is still eight months away.

0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:38.080
<v Speaker 1>I can't be long eight months.

0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:40.120
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, a long eight months. But it's already been a

0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:43.000
<v Speaker 2>long year or so since we first started to talk

0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:46.120
<v Speaker 2>about Trump throwing his hat back in the ring. But

0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:50.440
<v Speaker 2>in terms of the numbers, four substantial polls in the

0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:53.400
<v Speaker 2>US this week show that Trump is in front of

0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:57.000
<v Speaker 2>Biden with leads of between two to four percent. So

0:14:57.240 --> 0:15:01.880
<v Speaker 2>that's not nothing, but it's not a dundee. That being said,

0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:05.320
<v Speaker 2>as well, despite Biden being behind in the polls, he

0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:08.800
<v Speaker 2>has the advantage of being an incumbent. Now, this is

0:15:09.000 --> 0:15:13.000
<v Speaker 2>the idea of someone in office seeking re election, and

0:15:13.160 --> 0:15:15.640
<v Speaker 2>historically what we've seen in the US is when a

0:15:15.680 --> 0:15:19.320
<v Speaker 2>current president runs for a second term, they're typically more

0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:23.000
<v Speaker 2>successful than the candidate challenging them. So in the last

0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:25.400
<v Speaker 2>twelve elections in the US, to put this into perspective,

0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:32.040
<v Speaker 2>incumbent candidates have won eight times, leaving four one term presidents.

0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:35.480
<v Speaker 2>So that's gerald for Jimmy Carter, George Bush Senior, and

0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:39.520
<v Speaker 2>of course Trump because he failed to win office for

0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:42.440
<v Speaker 2>a second term when he was an incumbent in that race.

0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:47.120
<v Speaker 2>So history tells us that Joe Biden has that advantage.

0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:52.280
<v Speaker 2>Polls tell us that Trump has the popularity advantage. It's

0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:52.920
<v Speaker 2>going to be a long.

0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:56.520
<v Speaker 1>Road ahead that it is a lot could change, but

0:15:56.920 --> 0:16:00.120
<v Speaker 1>I appreciate you telling us the lay of the land today. Hey,

0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:03.240
<v Speaker 1>thanks for joining us today on the Daily os. If

0:16:03.240 --> 0:16:06.320
<v Speaker 1>you learn something from today's episode, don't forget to hit subscribe.

0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:09.080
<v Speaker 1>So there is a TDA episode waiting for you every

0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:12.400
<v Speaker 1>weekday morning. We'll be back again tomorrow, but until then,

0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:17.800
<v Speaker 1>have a fabulous day. My name is Lily Maddon and

0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:21.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm a proud Arunda Bungelung Calcotin woman from Gadighl Country.

0:16:22.440 --> 0:16:25.560
<v Speaker 1>The Daily oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on

0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:28.120
<v Speaker 1>the lands of the Gadighl people and pays respect to

0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:31.480
<v Speaker 1>all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island and nations. We pay

0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:34.440
<v Speaker 1>our respects to the first peoples of these countries, both

0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:35.400
<v Speaker 1>past and present.