1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,720 Speaker 1: The latest figures from core Logic have found that the 2 00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:06,440 Speaker 1: National Home Value Index rose by just zero point one 3 00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:09,960 Speaker 1: percent in the last month, the weakest Australia wide result 4 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 1: since January twenty twenty three. Now it marks the twenty 5 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:16,759 Speaker 1: second straight month of growth, but it could be almost 6 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:20,600 Speaker 1: the last, with downturn gathering momentum in Melbourne and Sydney. 7 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:23,640 Speaker 1: And while the mid sized capitals have dominated the growth 8 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 1: cycle of late, it's losing a bit of steam by 9 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 1: the look of things. Now. Joining us on the line 10 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 1: to take us through the findings is core Logic's research 11 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 1: director Tim Lawless. Good morning to you, Tim. 12 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 2: Good morning Katie. 13 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 1: Lovely to have you on the show. Now, Tim tell us, 14 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: what does the latest analysis show for Darwin. 15 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 2: Well, it's still a pretty flat market, Katie, A little 16 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:50,199 Speaker 2: bit of a continuation probably seen the last year or so. 17 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 2: The mark was actually zero point two percent in the month, okay, 18 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 2: so a little bit better than flat, but it was 19 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 2: down a little bit over the rolling quarter. So there's 20 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 2: always going to be a little bit of a latility 21 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 2: in a fairly small market like Darwin that I think. 22 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 2: Reading between those two the monthly and the quarterly figures, 23 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 2: you can describe the market as reece in values across Darwin. 24 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:13,399 Speaker 2: So compared that to somewhere like Melbourne, where values are falling, 25 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 2: They're down two point three percent of Hobart's down about 26 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:19,279 Speaker 2: one percent. Darwin is a little bit better, but certainly 27 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 2: not performing as strongly as a market like Perth where 28 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 2: values are up twenty one percent in the past twelve months. 29 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,479 Speaker 1: Wow, wait, that's massive. What's going on. 30 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 2: There in Perth? Well, yeah, it's coming from a pretty 31 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 2: low base. Not that Darwin isn't. Darwin's a very affordable 32 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 2: market as well, but Perth did go through that long 33 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 2: lull after the mining room, so it started this upscring 34 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 2: and a fairly low base. But it's also a market 35 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 2: that's got a very strong economy, huge amounts of population 36 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 2: growth coming in, particularly from interstate migration, a real housing undersupply. 37 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 2: They've been underbuilding in that marketplace. And it's a market 38 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 2: that's very popular with investors as well, which is adding 39 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 2: quite a bit too to demand. 40 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: Yeah. Interesting, really interesting to see that Perth is in 41 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 1: that situation. I mean, when we come back to the 42 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 1: Northern Territory and we talk about the fact that you know, 43 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,359 Speaker 1: we're only up two percent, so not a huge sort 44 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:14,959 Speaker 1: of increase. What do we expect that trend to continue 45 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 1: or are we expecting things to maybe change a. 46 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 2: Little Well, it's hard to know, to be honest, Katie. Like, 47 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 2: we're looking at listing numbers across Darwin that are really low. 48 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:28,080 Speaker 2: They're tracking about twenty five percent lower than a year ago, 49 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:30,800 Speaker 2: So you'd have to think that for buyers there's got 50 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 2: a huge amount of stock to choose from. We've seen 51 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 2: a little bit of a reduction in the average time 52 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 2: to sell, but it's still taking about two months, but 53 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:39,639 Speaker 2: a little bit less than a year ago. I think 54 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 2: the biggest missing piece of the puzzle for Darwin is 55 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 2: just population growth. Yeah, enough to drive housing demand and 56 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 2: affordability is really healthy across darw and at least in 57 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 2: relativity to most other markets. You'd have to think once 58 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:57,800 Speaker 2: the economy starts to pick up whenever that's going to happen, 59 00:02:57,880 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 2: that will really start to attract more people into the 60 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,640 Speaker 2: market for it for both jobs and of course that 61 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 2: the low housing prices. 62 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:06,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, I guess that's what we're all hoping 63 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:08,640 Speaker 1: to see, isn't it get the economy moving? And we 64 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 1: know that it sort of helps in so many different ways. 65 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 1: Especially if Bob's it's it would be a good thing 66 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 1: for all of us. 67 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, the last boom Dalla went through was 68 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 2: in line with all the impacts infrastructure work going on, 69 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:26,960 Speaker 2: and of course the housing market was rocketing back then 70 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 2: as well. Interestingly enough, we're still seeing des By Darwin 71 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 2: housing values have actually increased quite substantially through the pandemic. 72 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 2: They're up about twenty three and a half percent since 73 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 2: March twenty twenty, but they're still tracking about seven percent 74 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 2: lower than their record highs, which was all the way 75 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 2: back in May of twenty fourteen, which was pretty much 76 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 2: when a lot of all that big infrastructure projects were 77 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 2: winding down, and that's when we really started to see 78 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 2: less housing demand coming into the market after quite a 79 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 2: bit of building as well, particularly around inner city apartments. 80 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 1: Now, what's the situation in regional parts of the Northern Territory. 81 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 2: It's pretty soft, Katie. If I look at each of 82 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 2: the regional subregions, you've got a market like Catherine housing 83 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 2: values are down six percent over the past twelve months, 84 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 2: Alice Springs down about five percent as well. So yeah, 85 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:23,480 Speaker 2: it's a really soft market. And again maybe it's Darwin 86 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 2: but amplified. There's just not a great deal of housing 87 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 2: demand coming into these markets, and housing values are falling 88 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 2: because of it. 89 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 1: Yeah. Now, then when you look at the median home values, 90 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 1: it does, by the sounds of things, they are falling. 91 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely. I mean in those two cities in regional NT, 92 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 2: You've got a median dwelling value in Catherine at about 93 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 2: three hundred and forty thousand dollars Alice Springs about three 94 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:52,840 Speaker 2: hundred and ninety thousand dollars. So these are some of 95 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:56,039 Speaker 2: the most affordable markets you'll find around the country. That 96 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 2: affordability is one thing. If you don't have jobs, creation 97 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 2: and wrong economic conditions, and you generally won't get people 98 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 2: to be to be coming into those markets. 99 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a tough part, isn't it, Because you sort 100 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: of look at those prices and go o, well, is 101 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: it a you know, is it a buyer's market? But 102 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 1: unless that population grows and unless you've got jobs for 103 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 1: people to move here for it, you know, it makes 104 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 1: it tough. They're sort of you know, why would you 105 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:19,159 Speaker 1: be buying that home? 106 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 2: I guess, Yeah, that's exactly right. Ellis Springs is one 107 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 2: of the few markets that's actually seen a fall and 108 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 2: dwelling values all the way since the beginning of the pandemic. 109 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 2: So the really is are down about seven percent since 110 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:33,040 Speaker 2: March twenty twenty, and you know. 111 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:35,479 Speaker 1: Look for US locals, I suppose that's probably not a 112 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 1: huge surprise in the sense that they have really battled 113 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: through some serious crime issues, you know, making news headlines 114 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:44,480 Speaker 1: right around the nation as well. And I have sort 115 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 1: of heard that anecdotally that for people that have been 116 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: maybe wanting to sell, they've found it really tough. 117 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, it certainly doesn't help, you know, reputation and a 118 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:58,840 Speaker 2: negative headline certainly disincentive to be looking at those sort 119 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 2: of markets. But yeah, in line with that, I think 120 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 2: also just just weak economies and you know generally negative 121 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 2: population growth is the key thing is really driving that weakness. 122 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, well cool. Logic Research Director Tim Lawless. I really 123 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,599 Speaker 1: appreciate your time. Always enjoy having a chat with you 124 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 1: and talking about the property market and you know, looking 125 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 1: at some of those factors that are at play. 126 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 2: Thanks Katie, it's good to catch up. 127 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 1: Thanks for your time this morning.