WEBVTT - Why is the Coalition breaking up?

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<v Speaker 1>Already and this this is the Daily Off. This is

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<v Speaker 1>the Daily OS.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, now it makes sense. Good morning and welcome to

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<v Speaker 2>the Daily OS. It's Thursday, the twenty second of May.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Billy Fitzsimon.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm Sam Bekazlowski.

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<v Speaker 2>In a surprise political development this week, the National Party

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<v Speaker 2>announced it is splitting from its long term partner, the

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<v Speaker 2>Liberal Party, effectively ending the coalition that has been a

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<v Speaker 2>cornerstone of Australian politics for decades. This decision marks only

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<v Speaker 2>the third time in the coalition's eighty year history that

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<v Speaker 2>the parties have formally separated. So what happens now? Who

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<v Speaker 2>now makes up the opposition? And does it just guarantee

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<v Speaker 2>Labor will be elected again at the next election. Well

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<v Speaker 2>answer all of your questions in today's.

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<v Speaker 1>Episode, Billy. How fun is it just trying to wait

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<v Speaker 1>for a week where Australian politics becomes a little quieter.

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<v Speaker 2>It's very busy at the moment.

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<v Speaker 1>It just keeps getting delayed. We had the election a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of weeks ago. Then we are almost as busy

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<v Speaker 1>politically as we were during the election time. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>because there's some really fundamental changes to Australian politics underway.

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<v Speaker 1>But why don't we start with the basics. Talk me

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<v Speaker 1>through exactly when you say coalition, what exactly that means.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, this is an interesting question. I always think about

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<v Speaker 2>the fact that Australia is often described as a two

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<v Speaker 2>party system, but that's just not true because we have

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<v Speaker 2>the Labor Party, which is a single party. But then

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<v Speaker 2>we have the Coalition and that is not a single party,

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<v Speaker 2>that is actually two parties. Well, actually it is more

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<v Speaker 2>than two parties. It's a group of parties that make

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<v Speaker 2>up the coalition. Mainly it is the Liberal Party and

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<v Speaker 2>the National Party.

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<v Speaker 1>So we basically have a two family system.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, that's a great way to look at it. So

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<v Speaker 2>the coalition is a formal alliance primarily, like I said,

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<v Speaker 2>between the Liberal Party and the National Party. Now, this

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<v Speaker 2>partnership has been a mainstay in Australian politics, like I said,

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<v Speaker 2>for decades, with those two parties joining forces to govern together.

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<v Speaker 2>So if after an election they win enough seats to govern,

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<v Speaker 2>then they do that together in the House of Reps.

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<v Speaker 2>But even if they don't win enough seats, usually they

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<v Speaker 2>still come together in opposition and form a group to

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<v Speaker 2>be the official opposition in Parliament. Now, It's been fairly

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<v Speaker 2>well documented that at the most recent election things did

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<v Speaker 2>not go well for the Coalition. I think it was

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<v Speaker 2>one of their worst losses in recent history. The exact numbers,

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<v Speaker 2>so Labour won ninety three seats while the Coalition together

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<v Speaker 2>secured just forty three seats. So that's a fifty seat difference.

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<v Speaker 2>That is massive.

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<v Speaker 1>And remember you need that seventy six seat majority to govern,

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<v Speaker 1>so to get ninety three means you are well and

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<v Speaker 1>truly with the mandate of the Australian people to govern

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<v Speaker 1>a landslide under forty three with two parties combined in

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<v Speaker 1>this coalition, clearly something has kind of gone wrong in

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<v Speaker 1>their messaging to the Australian people. What led to the

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<v Speaker 1>breakup though? I mean, I feel like I'm sitting through

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<v Speaker 1>the notebook and the language that everyone's using is about

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<v Speaker 1>breaking up and relationships, and we're on the break. Take

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<v Speaker 1>me back to the beginning of this love story and

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<v Speaker 1>where it started to break down.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think it started to break down after the

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<v Speaker 2>Australian people basically, like you said, rejected what they were offering.

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<v Speaker 2>And so it's been what three weeks now since the election,

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<v Speaker 2>and then on Tuesday, Nationals leader David littl prod made

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<v Speaker 2>the announcement via a press conference that the Nationals would

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<v Speaker 2>be ending their formal partnership with the Liberal Party. Often

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<v Speaker 2>in breakups, you say who was the one who ended it?

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<v Speaker 2>Very much the Nationals. They were the one who ended

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<v Speaker 2>this relationship. You're right that everyone's been talking about it

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<v Speaker 2>as a breakup, even the Nationals in their press conference

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<v Speaker 2>they kept comparing this to a breakup. Fascinating, but they

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<v Speaker 2>said that this is just a temporary break by no means,

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<v Speaker 2>does this seem like it's going to be a permanent

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<v Speaker 2>breakup of the coalition.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm really interested in you saying that it could just

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<v Speaker 1>be temporary. Yes, that doesn't sound like they're out of love.

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<v Speaker 1>It just sounds like they might need a bit of

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<v Speaker 1>space from each other. Can you explain what you mean

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<v Speaker 1>by that a little bit more?

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<v Speaker 2>So, they have actually broken up before. This is actually

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<v Speaker 2>the third time that they have gone through something like this.

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<v Speaker 2>The most recent time was in nineteen eighty seven, which,

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<v Speaker 2>if my mass is correct, nearly forty years ago, and

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<v Speaker 2>so that was over a disagreement about who should be

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<v Speaker 2>running as prime minister for the country. So obviously in

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<v Speaker 2>the coalition, only one person if they are in opposition,

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<v Speaker 2>can be running to be the prime minister, and the

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<v Speaker 2>Nationals said they wanted to put forward a leader. The

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<v Speaker 2>Liberal Party, who traditionally does put forward the person to

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<v Speaker 2>be running for prime minister, said no, and that caused

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<v Speaker 2>a disagreement, which led to a split. But that lasted

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<v Speaker 2>about one hundred days and then they eventually came back

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<v Speaker 2>together because I.

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<v Speaker 1>Think the interesting dynamic, iming purely on the mathematical point,

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<v Speaker 1>is for there to be any chance of a coalition

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<v Speaker 1>government at almost any election, they almost need to be together. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>so the incentives to get back together are pretty strong.

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<v Speaker 1>Did David little Proud, the current leader of the Nationals,

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<v Speaker 1>did he talk through at that press conference the key

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<v Speaker 1>reasons why they're making this decision right now?

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<v Speaker 2>Yes. So he said that there were four specific policy

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<v Speaker 2>areas that led to this breakup. I'll go through them.

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<v Speaker 2>The first one is nuclear energy. So the Nationals strongly

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<v Speaker 2>believe that Australia needs to introduce nuclear energy. At the

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<v Speaker 2>last election, the coalition together went to the Australian public

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<v Speaker 2>and said if we are elected, we will introduce nuclear energy. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>obviously they were not elected but the Nationals are saying

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<v Speaker 2>that wasn't because of our nuclear policy, and so we

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<v Speaker 2>believe that at the next election we should still have

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<v Speaker 2>the policy of introducing nuclear energy.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's an important policy for a lot of the

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<v Speaker 1>nine million people that they represent, which the nine million

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<v Speaker 1>Australians that don't live in capital cities where energy distribution

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<v Speaker 1>and kind of the way that regional Australia is powered

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<v Speaker 1>is a big topic.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And they say that Australia can't just run on

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<v Speaker 2>renewable energy. They are saying that in order for Australia

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<v Speaker 2>to run efficiently, we actually need nuclear energy.

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<v Speaker 1>So if I'm understanding correctly, post election, the Nationals kind

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<v Speaker 1>of said to their partners in the coalition, the Liberal Party,

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<v Speaker 1>are you still going to back nuclear power going forward?

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<v Speaker 1>Because that's a fundamental part of why we're staying in

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<v Speaker 1>this relationship And the Liberal Party couldn't give that guarantee

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<v Speaker 1>right now? Is that kind of right correct?

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<v Speaker 2>But we don't know how the conversation exactly went, but

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<v Speaker 2>I think we can pretty safely presume that the Liberal

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<v Speaker 2>Party said we're not willing to commit to.

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<v Speaker 1>That right now. Okay, And you said there were four

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<v Speaker 1>areas so take me through Nuclear was number one? What's

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<v Speaker 1>number two?

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<v Speaker 2>So number two is something called the Regional Australia Future Fund,

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<v Speaker 2>and that was another election policy. This one was about

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<v Speaker 2>creating a twenty billion dollar fund providing better infrastructure for

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<v Speaker 2>regional and remote Australia.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay. Interesting, So we've got two very regional driven policies

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<v Speaker 1>or very relevant to regional heartlands. Take me through the

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<v Speaker 1>third and the fourth ones.

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<v Speaker 2>The third one is also very regional focused. It was

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<v Speaker 2>something called the Universal Service Obligation and that was a

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<v Speaker 2>plan to improve regional mobile and internet access.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay.

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<v Speaker 2>And then the last one is something called Divestiture Powers,

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<v Speaker 2>which I find very hard.

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<v Speaker 1>To say, you're pretty good.

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<v Speaker 2>So that was a coalition policy that would require large

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<v Speaker 2>companies to sell parts of their businesses if they demonstrated

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<v Speaker 2>serious anti competitive behavior. And that was specifically aimed at

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<v Speaker 2>reducing the market power of supermarkets.

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<v Speaker 1>So by effect standing up for farmers who may be

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<v Speaker 1>producing milk or meat for the supermarkets and feel like

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<v Speaker 1>they're getting ripped off.

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<v Speaker 2>A bit, yes, and saying that Australia has this duopoly

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<v Speaker 2>with Cohles and Wulwas and we need to diversify where

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<v Speaker 2>Australians are getting their products from.

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<v Speaker 1>And so these are all policy areas that the coalition,

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<v Speaker 1>as a partnership between the Liberal Party and the Nationals

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<v Speaker 1>carried into this election. What did the Liberal Party say

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<v Speaker 1>about these four areas that made the Nationals break up

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<v Speaker 1>with them?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah? So, like I said, we heard from the Nationals leader,

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<v Speaker 2>David Little Proud in the morning announcing the breakup, and

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<v Speaker 2>then just a few hours later we heard from the

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<v Speaker 2>leader of the Liberal Party, who is Susan Lee. She

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<v Speaker 2>was only elected last week. And I also think it's

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<v Speaker 2>worth mentioning that she actually lost her mother over the weekend,

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<v Speaker 2>so I mean, she has had a terrible first week

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<v Speaker 2>on the job.

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<v Speaker 1>It was interesting, actually, I'll just quickly tell you I

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<v Speaker 1>was listening to an interview with David Little Proud with

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<v Speaker 1>Triple J the day of this big announcement, and David MARQUESI,

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<v Speaker 1>the interviewer, put to him, you know, this person's mother

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<v Speaker 1>just passed away, like, is this the right time to

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<v Speaker 1>be renegotiating the coalition agreement? And David Little Proud said

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<v Speaker 1>he let Susan dictate the terms of those discussions, and

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<v Speaker 1>that she said, I'm going to come to Canberra the

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<v Speaker 1>day after her mother's funeral to have these really important

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<v Speaker 1>discussions about the future of the coalition, and he said, no,

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<v Speaker 1>I'll come to you. And Susan Lee was in Aubrey

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<v Speaker 1>at the time, which is where her late mother was,

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<v Speaker 1>and David Little Proud went to Aubrey to have the

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<v Speaker 1>discussions on her terms. And I just thought that was

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<v Speaker 1>an interesting Yeah, amid the political games that we're talking

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<v Speaker 1>about here are very human story, Yeah, but.

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<v Speaker 2>Still just you can't imagine what she must be going

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<v Speaker 2>through now, but we do know. So she did hold

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<v Speaker 2>this press conference, yeah, on Tuesday exactly, and so what

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<v Speaker 2>she said about the discussions is that the National Party

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<v Speaker 2>came to her with these four policy areas and she

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<v Speaker 2>just said, we are not able to commit to that

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<v Speaker 2>right now. We need more time to understand what our

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<v Speaker 2>policy areas are going to be moving forward, and if

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<v Speaker 2>you can't give that to us, then we can't enter

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<v Speaker 2>into this coalition. And so that's when the National Party

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<v Speaker 2>pulled out of the coalition.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll be right back with the rest of the TI

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<v Speaker 1>They dive after a quick message from our sponsor. And

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<v Speaker 1>we also know that the Liberal Party is planning this

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<v Speaker 1>review of where everything went so wrong for them in

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<v Speaker 1>the election, which is totally normal behavior for a political

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<v Speaker 1>party post an election loss.

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<v Speaker 2>Definitely, so they are going to do this review. But

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<v Speaker 2>I think one thing that they are clearly already reflecting

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<v Speaker 2>on is this idea that they need to modernize, and

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<v Speaker 2>that is their word. So Susan Lee in the press

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<v Speaker 2>conference on Tuesday, she kept saying that the Liberal Party

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<v Speaker 2>needs to modernize. Here's a little bit of that clip.

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<v Speaker 2>The Liberal Party must respect modern Australia, reflect modern Australia

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<v Speaker 2>and represent modern Australia. And just in terms of why,

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<v Speaker 2>I think that we can infer that she's saying that

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<v Speaker 2>perhaps being with the National Party won't allow us to modernize.

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<v Speaker 2>We know the Nationals are a more conservative part of

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<v Speaker 2>the coalition, definitely sit more to the right of the

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<v Speaker 2>Liberal Party, and we also know that Susan Lee is

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<v Speaker 2>part of the more moderate part of the Liberal Party.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think the gap between the ideologies of Susan

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<v Speaker 2>Lee as the leader of the Liberal Party and then

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<v Speaker 2>the Nationals who are wanting to be more conservative is

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<v Speaker 2>clearly quite far.

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<v Speaker 1>Billy, I'm king to zoom out for a sex So

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<v Speaker 1>how will all of this affect the makeup of the

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<v Speaker 1>opposition in Parliament.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, that's the critical question because it completely changes now

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<v Speaker 2>who is in opposition. So, in case you're not familiar,

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<v Speaker 2>every parliament needs to have an opposition and that's the

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<v Speaker 2>party or group that has the highest number of non

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<v Speaker 2>government seats. So I think you can think of it

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<v Speaker 2>as like the party that won the second highest number

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<v Speaker 2>of seats at the election. Now, since the Liberal Party

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<v Speaker 2>won more seats than the Nationals at the election, So

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<v Speaker 2>the Liberal Party won twenty eight seats and the Nationals

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<v Speaker 2>one fifteen, So that means that the Liberals had the

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<v Speaker 2>second highest number of seats as a single party by.

0:11:58.920 --> 0:11:59.400
<v Speaker 1>Quite a bit.

0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:02.679
<v Speaker 2>Had a big Yeah, Labor had ninety three and the

0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:05.360
<v Speaker 2>second was twenty eight, so that is a big gap.

0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:07.720
<v Speaker 2>So that just means that the Liberals will be the

0:12:07.760 --> 0:12:10.640
<v Speaker 2>official opposition party without the Nationals.

0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:13.160
<v Speaker 1>And before we wrap up, give me a sense of

0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:15.440
<v Speaker 1>what this all means for the Labor government. I mean,

0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:18.840
<v Speaker 1>primus Anthony Abeasy wasn't even in the country for all

0:12:18.840 --> 0:12:21.840
<v Speaker 1>of this this week. He was off in Italy at

0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:25.360
<v Speaker 1>the official ceremony to welcome the new pope. He's now

0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:27.800
<v Speaker 1>back in the country. What will this mean for his government?

0:12:28.280 --> 0:12:31.680
<v Speaker 2>I mean, it doesn't mean a lot, although I presume

0:12:31.920 --> 0:12:35.600
<v Speaker 2>that they would be quite happy because it kind of

0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:38.440
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I think when there's so much disunity in

0:12:38.480 --> 0:12:41.920
<v Speaker 2>the opposition and then Labor is able to present unity

0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:44.880
<v Speaker 2>to the country, it's just good for them in terms

0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:48.719
<v Speaker 2>of what it actually means for them. If the coalition

0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:52.640
<v Speaker 2>doesn't get back together, it kind of basically guarantees that

0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:56.200
<v Speaker 2>Labor will be re elected for a third consecutive term.

0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:59.920
<v Speaker 2>What do you mean by that, Well, because the Liberal Party,

0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.960
<v Speaker 2>in order for them to govern by themselves, they need

0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:05.840
<v Speaker 2>to win seventy six seats, Like I just said, At

0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:07.760
<v Speaker 2>the last election, they won twenty.

0:13:07.480 --> 0:13:09.440
<v Speaker 1>Eight seats, so they've got a big gap.

0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:12.160
<v Speaker 2>That's a big gap, that's almost a fifty seat gap,

0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:15.800
<v Speaker 2>and to turn that around in a single election cycle

0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:19.200
<v Speaker 2>would be very hard. Some would argue it's near and possible,

0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:22.120
<v Speaker 2>and so if the coalition, if they don't have the

0:13:22.160 --> 0:13:25.839
<v Speaker 2>support of the National Party, then Labor is pretty much

0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:27.760
<v Speaker 2>guaranteed to win again.

0:13:28.240 --> 0:13:31.199
<v Speaker 1>Okay, but you mentioned before that the last example nineteen

0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:34.480
<v Speaker 1>eighty seven, there was an one hundred day breakup and

0:13:34.559 --> 0:13:37.920
<v Speaker 1>then they got back together. The trend historically tends to

0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:40.959
<v Speaker 1>be that the coalition reunites, they go and sit in

0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:44.480
<v Speaker 1>the park bench and confess their love for once more.

0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:48.000
<v Speaker 1>What happens if the Coalition does indeed reform before the

0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:49.360
<v Speaker 1>next election, and.

0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:53.199
<v Speaker 2>They have basically said that that will definitely happen. No

0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:56.760
<v Speaker 2>one is positioning this as a permanent breakup. Both David

0:13:56.800 --> 0:14:00.160
<v Speaker 2>Littlproud and Susan Lee said that they have every intention

0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:00.760
<v Speaker 2>to get.

0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:02.360
<v Speaker 1>Back together, they just need some time apart.

0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:04.800
<v Speaker 2>They were basically giving people relationship advice.

0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:09.120
<v Speaker 1>That's incredible. It's an incredible fusion of politics and caller daddy.

0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:13.320
<v Speaker 2>Yes. So if the Coalition does get back together then

0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:16.640
<v Speaker 2>it's basically business as normal for the Labor Party for

0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:20.320
<v Speaker 2>the next election. For everyone, it's just business as normal

0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:23.560
<v Speaker 2>and your hope for them that they would have more

0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:26.560
<v Speaker 2>unity in their policy positions moving forward.

0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:29.840
<v Speaker 1>One interesting bit of trivia I actually read about online

0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:33.920
<v Speaker 1>is that so every member of Parliament gets an allowance

0:14:33.960 --> 0:14:37.080
<v Speaker 1>and that allowance pays for their staff at Parliament that

0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:39.960
<v Speaker 1>helped them in their office. The opposition gets a certain

0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:43.400
<v Speaker 1>allowance and then minor parties get a lower allowance, and

0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:47.280
<v Speaker 1>the Nationals were part of the opposition up until Tuesday

0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:50.320
<v Speaker 1>and then now a minor party, so every Nationals member

0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:53.400
<v Speaker 1>actually gets a little less money to fund their office,

0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:56.880
<v Speaker 1>and so there were actually reports of members of their

0:14:56.880 --> 0:14:58.720
<v Speaker 1>office trying to figure out, well, what does this mean

0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:00.880
<v Speaker 1>for our job? And I just thought that was a

0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:03.920
<v Speaker 1>really interesting kind of quirk of the system where yeah,

0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:06.320
<v Speaker 1>on the surface, it looks like a symbolic split for now,

0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 1>but it can, you know, really shake up the way

0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:11.920
<v Speaker 1>that the Parliament works. Definitely, thank you so much for that, Billy,

0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:15.520
<v Speaker 1>some great relationship advice, some great political explaining. You would

0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:19.440
<v Speaker 1>be the perfect political date show hosts. That's a fantastic

0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:25.200
<v Speaker 1>effort to explain the coalition through love. That's all we've

0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:28.000
<v Speaker 1>got time for on today's episode of The Daily Os.

0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:30.640
<v Speaker 1>We're going to be back in the afternoon with some headlines,

0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:33.800
<v Speaker 1>but as always, you can check us out on Instagram

0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:35.960
<v Speaker 1>to catch up with some news throughout the day. We'll

0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:42.640
<v Speaker 1>speak to you this afternoon. My name is Lily Maddon

0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:46.640
<v Speaker 1>and I'm a proud Arunda Bunjelung Calcuttin woman from Gadigl Country.

0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:50.640
<v Speaker 2>The Daily oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on

0:15:50.640 --> 0:15:51.920
<v Speaker 2>the lands of the Gadighl people.

0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:55.320
<v Speaker 1>And pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island

0:15:55.320 --> 0:15:55.880
<v Speaker 1>and nations.

0:15:56.200 --> 0:15:59.120
<v Speaker 2>We pay our respects to the first peoples of these countries,

0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:00.440
<v Speaker 2>both past and present.