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Speaker 1: Already and this is the daily This is the daily,

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Speaker 1: This is the Daily OS. Oh, now it makes sense.

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Speaker 2: Good morning and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Thursday,

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Speaker 2: the twenty fifth of July.

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Speaker 1: I'm Sam, I'm emma. Australia is in the midst of

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Speaker 1: a baby recession. That's according to recent analysis of national

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Speaker 1: birth rate trends by KPMG. Twenty twenty three sow the

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Speaker 1: lowest number of births in two decades, with cost of

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Speaker 1: living pressures being blamed. But should we care about a

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Speaker 1: declining birth rate and what does it mean for our

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Speaker 1: country's future stability? I'm chatting with an expert in today's

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Speaker 1: Deep Dive to answer all your questions. But first, Sam,

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Speaker 1: what's making headlines.

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Speaker 2: A member of Australia's Peak Construction Union, the CFMU, has

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Speaker 2: had his visa canceled following accusations of ties to criminal gangs.

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Speaker 2: New Zealand born when Dean Martin is facing deportation over

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Speaker 2: the alleged links to organized crime. The fifty six year

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Speaker 2: old has been detained in Melbourne and can be forcibly

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Speaker 2: removed from Australia if he doesnt cooperate with authorities.

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Speaker 1: The National Aboriginal and Torrestrate Islander population has surpassed one

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Speaker 1: million people, according to new data from the Australian Bureau

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Speaker 1: of Statistics. That's an increase of fifty six thousand, three

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Speaker 1: hundred people since June twenty twenty one. The ABS findings

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Speaker 1: also show most First Nations people live in regional Australia,

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Speaker 1: but Perth is projected to become the fastest growing indigenous

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Speaker 1: region over the coming years. Forecasters predict Aboriginal and Torrestrate

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Speaker 1: Islander populations to grow by a further two hundred thousand

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Speaker 1: people by twenty thirty one.

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Speaker 2: Electricity prices went up by nearly a quarter in the

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Speaker 2: year to June. The latest quarterly findings from market regulator

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Speaker 2: AMO says high demand for energy during an early winter

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Speaker 2: cold snap coincided with production issues and a tightening of

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Speaker 2: market conditions. The last quarterly wholesale prices averaged one hundred

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Speaker 2: and thirty three dollars per megawatt hour. That's twenty three

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Speaker 2: percent higher than the second quarter of last year. AMO

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Speaker 2: CEO Daniel Westerman said colder weather has driven a new

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Speaker 2: record for total electricity demand across the grid for the

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Speaker 2: June quarter.

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Speaker 1: And today's good news, the world's first blind barbie has

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Speaker 1: been announced as US toymaker Mattel aims to create a

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Speaker 1: world where more kids feel represented. The barbie has been

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Speaker 1: designed with features such as velcrow strips and textured fabrics

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Speaker 1: intended to enhance the play experience for blind or low

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Speaker 1: vision children. She also includes a cane and sunglasses. Vision

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Speaker 1: Australia has welcomed the move, saying its important children and

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Speaker 1: young people understand that people with disability are part of

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Speaker 1: the community. Last year, birth's across Australia fell to their

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Speaker 1: lowest level since two thousand and six. Now that was

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Speaker 1: a time of high inflation coupled with the initial widespread

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Speaker 1: adoption of the contraceptive pill, but this isn't an entirely

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Speaker 1: new concern. In two thousand and four, then Treasurer Peter

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Speaker 1: Costello announced the Baby Bonus, a government policy which gave

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Speaker 1: Australians up to five thousand dollars for every baby they had.

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Speaker 1: Fast forward to May twenty twenty four, when Treasurer Jim

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Speaker 1: Chalmers said that with immigration expected to drop, Australia needs

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Speaker 1: to explore other ways of growing our population, in other words,

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Speaker 1: having more babies, so what's going on and does it matter?

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Speaker 1: Doctor Liz Allen is a demographer at the A and

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Speaker 1: U Center for Social Policy Research and is an expert

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Speaker 1: on all things birth rates. She joins US now, Doctor Liz,

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the podcast.

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Speaker 3: Thank you for having me. I'm very excited.

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Speaker 1: We're very excited we're talking birth rates today. Now, before

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Speaker 1: we get stuck into this analysis form KPMG, what are

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Speaker 1: birth rates? Why are they an important insight into population?

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Speaker 4: So with this latest report from KPMG, there are talking

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Speaker 4: about two different things. They're talking about berths, the number

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Speaker 4: of live berths, and we're also talking about the total

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Speaker 4: fertility rate. So the total fertility rate is the number

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Speaker 4: on average a woman is expected to have over her

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Speaker 4: lifetime if the current rates of age.

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Speaker 3: Specific fertility rate apply.

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Speaker 4: So it's this synthetic kind of almost like an average

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Speaker 4: number that we would expect of children. And so that

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Speaker 4: gives us an indication of the rate of berths, how

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Speaker 4: that changes over time and so on.

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Speaker 3: And to add into.

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Speaker 4: This mix, we've got this level of two point one,

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Speaker 4: which is considered the replacement level of total fertility. So

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Speaker 4: if we are above two point one, we are exceeding

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Speaker 4: replacement the replacement of mum and dad, and that point

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Speaker 4: one is to account for mortality. If we're below that,

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Speaker 4: the population by way of births is not replacing itself.

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Speaker 4: That's how the theory goes. In Australia, we have been

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Speaker 4: below what's considered replacement level since the nineteen seventies, so

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Speaker 4: we've seen over time a decline in the total fertility rate,

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Speaker 4: which means that we were not replacing ourselves.

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Speaker 1: So when we talk about replacement, is the idea that,

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Speaker 1: taking out all other factors like migration, that if we

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Speaker 1: met the replacement rate, the Australian population would stay the same.

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Speaker 3: That's how the theory goes.

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Speaker 4: And so if you think back, Peter Costello in the

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Speaker 4: early two thousands basically said have a kid for a

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Speaker 4: kid for dad, and a kid for the country. And

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Speaker 4: so that's that idea of the replacement rate and the

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Speaker 4: reason treasure is a whole kind of focused on the

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Speaker 4: total fertility rate. And we know that the current treasurer

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Speaker 4: a little while back even said that it would be

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Speaker 4: good if the birth rates will hire. That's because the

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Speaker 4: government's bottom line in terms of budget is fed by

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Speaker 4: way of individual income tax in its largest share, so

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Speaker 4: if we want to maintain our living standards and ensure

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Speaker 4: that we've got enough government money to ensure our country

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Speaker 4: is going well, we need an appropriate number of people

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Speaker 4: paying their individual tax. We also need a robust workforce

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Speaker 4: to just service the population. But that's generally the crux

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Speaker 4: of the economic arguments.

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Speaker 1: So we're talking about this KPMG analysis that says Australia

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Speaker 1: is in the midst of a quote baby recession as

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Speaker 1: berths across the country fall by four point six percent

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Speaker 1: year on year. Baby recession is not language that I

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Speaker 1: have heard before this point. What does that actually mean?

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Speaker 1: And should we be scared?

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Speaker 4: So first things first, there's a lot of sensationalism here.

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Speaker 4: So birth recession is not a technical term. Neither is

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Speaker 4: baby drought. You know, all of those really kind of

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Speaker 4: emotive phrases are not technical terms. What we are seeing, though,

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Speaker 4: across geography are different rates of births and so we

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Speaker 4: see and this is not new in a city areas,

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Speaker 4: in capital cities, we see very low fertility, depending on

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Speaker 4: the geography you use to classify it. Sometimes it sits

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Speaker 4: even below one birth per woman on average.

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Speaker 3: Now that's because.

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Speaker 4: Of the demography of the population in these areas, These

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Speaker 4: areas are young people, these areas are working population, and

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Speaker 4: so on. Then as we move out to the suburbs,

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Speaker 4: this is where we see higher rates of total fertility rates,

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Speaker 4: still under what would be considered a replacement level in

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Speaker 4: most places in Australia.

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Speaker 3: And then as we go further and further from the

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Speaker 3: capital city, the fertility rates tend to increase. Now, why

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Speaker 3: does that matter in its own right? It matters not. Okay.

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Speaker 4: What does matter though, is if we are thinking about

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Speaker 4: the inequalities experienced across geography, and if we're thinking that

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Speaker 4: parents are spending longer in their commute, that's of course

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Speaker 4: going to impact family wellbeing and have consequences for all

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Speaker 4: manner of things now and into the future. The other

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Speaker 4: front goes to the heart of this idea of a

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Speaker 4: baby drought. Now, when we say have one for mom,

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Speaker 4: have one for dad, and have one for the country,

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Speaker 4: we are essentially hearing politicians say, ladies, get down a business,

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Speaker 4: think of the country, and do what you're good for.

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Speaker 3: And that's really really a major.

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Speaker 4: Source of gender equality, right, And then we see these

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Speaker 4: tropes of world those ladies are preferring a career and

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Speaker 4: a job and status, they'd prefer to go flying across

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Speaker 4: the world and have babies.

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Speaker 3: It's not the case.

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Speaker 4: That's not what we're seeing, and we can see a

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Speaker 4: whole range of data that supports that. At the core

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Speaker 4: is what troubles me most. And if we really want

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Speaker 4: to talk about a baby drought, let's talk about this

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Speaker 4: current contemporary Australian life presents insurmountable barriers for people to

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Speaker 4: achieve their desired families. What is happening. Previous generations have

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Speaker 4: stuffed to the point where we've got climate boiling, we

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Speaker 4: have an out of control cost of living crisis, gender

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Speaker 4: equality that is nowhere close to being rectified, and we

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Speaker 4: have housing affordability that means people are living in tents.

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Speaker 3: Families are living in tents to deal with this crisis.

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Speaker 3: That's what the now is like. So young people are saying,

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Speaker 3: and especially women, are saying, we can't possibly morally and

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Speaker 3: ethically have our desired family because what will become of

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Speaker 3: these children and what will the world become in the future.

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Speaker 3: That's my concern.

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Speaker 1: So you're suggesting that maybe it's not the fault of

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Speaker 1: any younger person or any person considering starting a family,

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Speaker 1: but that we're talking a couple of generations ago, that

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Speaker 1: the foundations laid then, and there are the problem today.

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Speaker 4: Indeed, we have a contemporary society where by you must

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Speaker 4: have a duel income to survive. You know, you must

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Speaker 4: have established a career in order to be able to

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Speaker 4: survive financially. So in actual fact, we are seeing the

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Speaker 4: delaying of first birth to the point where then the

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Speaker 4: ability to have subsequent children is reduced. So all of

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Speaker 4: these things are happening and so on. It's just getting

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Speaker 4: even more complex.

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Speaker 1: I want to zero in a little more on these findings.

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Speaker 1: The number of births in twenty twenty three was the

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Speaker 1: lowest since two thousand and six. What has changed? Obviously

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Speaker 1: we have these broader trends of cost of living, climate concerns,

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Speaker 1: But what happened in two thousand and six? What was

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Speaker 1: that drop? Are there any lessons from that time?

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Speaker 4: So in around two thousand and six there was the

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Speaker 4: Costello conversation there we even had a baby bonus. We

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Speaker 4: had a lot of media commentary about the wrong kind

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Speaker 4: of war was getting knocked up so she could have

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Speaker 4: a plasma. TV plasma was all a rage and technology

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Speaker 4: at the time.

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Speaker 3: No women were not having plasma TV babies.

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Speaker 4: What happened was with the big boom post war, we

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Speaker 4: then saw an echo of birth rates and berths as

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Speaker 4: these generations came down the line. So that's essentially what

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Speaker 4: occurred at that time, and so part of it's a

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Speaker 4: historical thing. The other thing, too, is looking at the

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Speaker 4: prospects of heading into what's considered ultralow fertility. Ultra low

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Speaker 4: fertility rate is not whether or not you can have

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Speaker 4: a baby, it's the outcome of a live birth. If

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Speaker 4: we get to the point of ultralow total fertility, we're

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Speaker 4: in the situation of a very stubbornly low, unbudgetable total

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Speaker 4: fertility rate. Think Singapore, Think Japan, think South Korea. Once

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Speaker 4: we reached that, we can't come back from it.

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Speaker 3: So the goal would be to put in place policies,

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Speaker 3: rhetoric even to arrest that decline.

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Speaker 1: What does that look like if we continue on the

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Speaker 1: trajectory or the downward trend that you've articulated, what does

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Speaker 1: that actually mean for life in Australia.

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Speaker 3: There will become a point in around about the twenty

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Speaker 3: fifties in Australia where debts will exceed berths. That's how

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Speaker 3: we're tracking at the moment, we'll have more debts than

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Speaker 3: we will berths. So the landscape of our population and

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Speaker 3: the population dynamics will change. Essentially, if we kind of

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Speaker 3: take a step back, this is what we're in for.

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Speaker 3: Potentially living standards go backwards. So in other.

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Speaker 4: Words, we're doing more with less by way of caring

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Speaker 4: for our aging population, less money coming in via individual

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Speaker 4: income tax relatively. Then we've got a government going, okay,

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Speaker 4: what are we going to do? How are we going

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Speaker 4: to divvy up these competing demands and so on, And

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Speaker 4: then so we've got this kind of perfect storm of

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Speaker 4: a great uncertain reality with a corrupted generational bargain, whereby

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Speaker 4: the Australia we're giving to our generations coming through is

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Speaker 4: perhaps not the same as that experienced in the past.

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Speaker 4: And so we've got this terrible situation of Australia with

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Speaker 4: an uncertain future.

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Speaker 1: You've touched on this a little bit already, but the

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Speaker 1: KPMG analysis included a breakdown of how births have shifted

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Speaker 1: in capital cities. A particular standout, of course Sydney, where

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Speaker 1: birth dropped eight point six percent, the most expensive city

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Speaker 1: in the country. But we can't all you know, pack

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Speaker 1: our bags and move to the regions. We've seen even

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Speaker 1: property prices in those parts of the country fluctuating and

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Speaker 1: becoming unaffordable because so many people decided to do that

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Speaker 1: kind of around the pandemic. So what do we do

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Speaker 1: with that data? You know, when we know that yes,

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Speaker 1: you live in an unaffordable part of the world, what

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Speaker 1: happens next.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's not necessarily the housing that you're in that

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Speaker 4: determines whether or not it's affordable. Often we will live

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Speaker 4: in particular areas because of our circumstances, So we've got

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Speaker 4: to be careful about causality here. But certainly there are

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Speaker 4: very successful populations that do well with apartment living, and

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Speaker 4: we've kind of shunned that. We've avoided it, and in fact,

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Speaker 4: our cities are built in a way that doesn't really

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Speaker 4: accommodate that kind of living. So we need to get

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Speaker 4: to the point where we really consider a reimagination of

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Speaker 4: the way that we live, the homes that we live in,

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Speaker 4: what that looks like, and so on. But more importantly,

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Speaker 4: something else has got to give, and it's got to

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Speaker 4: stop being individuals.

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Speaker 3: We need to see drastic.

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Speaker 4: Change those four key areas housing affordability, cost of living,

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Speaker 4: having gender equality, and climate change. Now we will hear

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Speaker 4: governments say, well, we don't have the money for that, right, Well,

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Speaker 4: you can't afford not to do anything. You've got to

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Speaker 4: do something, right, So do it now, fund it like

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Speaker 4: you mean it. And in the absence of being able

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Speaker 4: to fund it like you mean it right now, change

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Speaker 4: the rhetoric. Start talking about a hopeful future. We must

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Speaker 4: see policy and practice keep up with the reality of

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Speaker 4: today's demands.

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Speaker 3: And it's not. And then what's happening is it's falling

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Speaker 3: to individuals to do what politicians and policy makers have

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Speaker 3: failed to do, and that's take responsibility. And that, to

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Speaker 3: me is the drought right there, the paucity of support,

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Speaker 3: Doctor Liz.

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Speaker 1: Before we let you go, I feel like maybe some

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Speaker 1: of our listeners might be remembering a chat that we

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Speaker 1: had earlier this year when Australia's population ticked over to

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Speaker 1: twenty seven million people. There was a lot of talk

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Speaker 1: around that milestone paranoia, if you will, the population panic

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Speaker 1: that you described. What is all that about?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So the problem is, and you're right, there will

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Speaker 4: be many that herald this. They'll say, Okay, we're having

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Speaker 4: fewer babies. That's great, but this is coming from generations

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Speaker 4: who have had their go they've had their kids, they've

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Speaker 4: raised their families, and now they're saying to the future

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Speaker 4: of us, sorry, the boat's full. It's a really dangerous

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Speaker 4: territory to be in. But the way that we fix

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Speaker 4: this is through innovating our way out of it, and

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Speaker 4: that includes ensuring that there is a future demographic future

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Speaker 4: for Australia. We are now in a situation where it

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Speaker 4: is too difficult to have a child. Imagine if we

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Speaker 4: told a baby born today and by the way, you'll.

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Speaker 3: Never be able to have a baby because it's just

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Speaker 3: too hard. Is that really fair? Now?

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Speaker 4: Not all people want to have kids, but for those

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Speaker 4: that do, surely that he is an enormous marker of

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Speaker 4: ATA failure.

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Speaker 3: Their future must be certain and we must invest in

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Speaker 3: it now.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Liz Allen, thank you so much for your time.

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Speaker 1: A pleasure is always to really appreciate you breaking this

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Speaker 1: one down for us.

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Speaker 3: Thank you.

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Speaker 2: That's all I've got time for. On today's episode of

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Speaker 2: The Daily O, it's a really interesting interview there from Emma.

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Speaker 2: We'll speak to you again tomorrow, but if you've got

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Speaker 2: a moment I'd love you to click subscribe or follow,

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Speaker 2: YouTube channel. All of these tiny little actions makes a

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Speaker 2: huge difference to independent media here in Australia. We'll be

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Speaker 2: back with a new episode again tomorrow morning. Until then,

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Speaker 2: have a good day.

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Speaker 3: My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Runda

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Speaker 3: Bungelung cargotten woman from Gadigal Country. The Daily oz acknowledges

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Speaker 3: that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the

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Speaker 3: Gadigal people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and torrest

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Speaker 3: Rate island and nations. We pay our respects to the

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Speaker 3: first peoples of these countries, both past and present.