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Speaker 1: Joining me on the line is another woman who is

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Speaker 1: always organized and prepared, and that is Jess Lingard from

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Speaker 1: the Bureau of Meteorology. Good morning, Jess, Good morning, Jess.

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Speaker 1: I tell you what interesting interesting times talk is through

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Speaker 1: the latest advice already.

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Speaker 2: So we have had an update to the tropical cyclone

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Speaker 2: track map about what half an hour forty minutes ago.

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Speaker 2: Now still a Category one tropical cyclone, but we have

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Speaker 2: seen the wins are starting to speed back up again,

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Speaker 2: starting to get a little stronger around the center. Earlier

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Speaker 2: this morning, the four the track map had it with

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Speaker 2: one hundred kilometer in our wins. It now has one

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Speaker 2: hundred and twenty kilometer in our wins. So it is

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Speaker 2: starting to recover from that wind shear that we were talking. Oh,

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Speaker 2: actually no, we didn't talk yesterday, but so we yes

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Speaker 2: say it. So I've had so many interviews. I do apologize.

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Speaker 2: Yesterday started to weaken and that was because it had

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Speaker 2: some wind sheer issues. So in the broader sort of

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Speaker 2: environment of the tropical cyclone had some different wind speeds

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Speaker 2: and different wind strengths and directions at the top and

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Speaker 2: the bottom of the cyclone. And basically cyclones like to

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Speaker 2: be standing straight upright. That allows them to spin really

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Speaker 2: fast and to get really organized around the eye. When

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Speaker 2: they get a bit of a lean on them, they

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Speaker 2: start to sort of topple over and fall apart. We

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Speaker 2: also saw overnight it ingesting some dry air into the system,

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Speaker 2: which is a bit like taking a sip of water

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Speaker 2: and it going down the wrong pipe. It starts sort

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Speaker 2: of coughing and spluttering and weakening, but today getting its

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Speaker 2: act together again and we are starting to see it

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Speaker 2: strengthening back up. As I say, we are starting to

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Speaker 2: see those winds at the center getting a little stronger,

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Speaker 2: and I do suggest that perhaps on the next issue

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Speaker 2: of the track map later this afternoon, that we will

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Speaker 2: see it has strengthened back up to a category two

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Speaker 2: system before we see it impact the Cobourg Peninsula. Now

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Speaker 2: we do have a tropical cyclone warning zone that covers

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Speaker 2: the entire Coburg Peninsula, the Tiwi Islands, the Darwin City

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Speaker 2: and all the way down to Dundee Beach, and that

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Speaker 2: means that we could see Gaele force winds within the

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Speaker 2: next twenty four hours. We then have a watch zone

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Speaker 2: that extends from Dundee Beach all the way down to

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Speaker 2: wad Air, which means that gale force winds could be

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Speaker 2: experienced within the next twenty four to forty eight hours,

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Speaker 2: So just that sort of twenty four hour offset there

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Speaker 2: at the moment, expecting the system to continue to move

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Speaker 2: in a southwesterly direction, likely to skirt the bottom of

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Speaker 2: the Tiwi Islands, remaining north of the Darwin City. However,

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Speaker 2: we do have several model outcomes that suggest we could

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Speaker 2: see a slightly more northerly track taking it through more

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Speaker 2: central parts of the Tiwi Islands. We also see models

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Speaker 2: that take it a little bit further south, so maybe

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Speaker 2: a more direct impact for Darwin's city. It is really

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Speaker 2: important over the next twenty four to thirty six hours

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Speaker 2: that we do keep a really close eye on this

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Speaker 2: track map, not focusing too much on that black line

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Speaker 2: around down the middle, but those pink and red rings,

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Speaker 2: because those are the rings that are going to tell

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Speaker 2: you about the sort of winds that you could experience,

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Speaker 2: especially on your location.

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Speaker 1: So talk us through those rings and what kind of

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Speaker 1: winds we are going to experience with them, because there'll

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Speaker 1: be people that are looking at this cyclone tracking map.

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Speaker 1: Now there'll be some that are going to look at

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Speaker 1: it throughout the afternoon and they'll remember what you're saying.

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Speaker 1: So you know, with the pink and red rings, if

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Speaker 1: we stay at a category two, what are we expecting.

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Speaker 2: So the pink rings highlight where we're going to see

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Speaker 2: those gae fourth winds, So that sort of salmon colored ring,

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Speaker 2: that's why we're seeing Gaye fourth winds. That's winds up

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Speaker 2: to around one hundred kilometers an hour. As we start

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Speaker 2: to see that red ring emerge. When we move up

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Speaker 2: to a category two system, that's where we start to

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Speaker 2: experience those destructive winds. So that's wind gus in excess

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Speaker 2: of one hundred and twenty five kilometers an hour up

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Speaker 2: to around one hundred and sixty kilometers an hour, and

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Speaker 2: we can see that later sort of as it moves

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Speaker 2: past Darwin into the team or sea, we also get

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Speaker 2: a darker red ring, which is the very destructive wins

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Speaker 2: a category three system possible then, and that's when we're

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Speaker 2: starting to look at wins sort of exceeding one hundred

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Speaker 2: and seventy kilometers an hour for Darwin itself, we are

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Speaker 2: at risk of those destructive winds, so that is wins

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Speaker 2: between one hundred and twenty and one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 2: ish kilometers an hour, so you know it is going

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Speaker 2: to be a blustery evening, and it is really important

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Speaker 2: tomorrow night, when we're sort of starting to feel the

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Speaker 2: brunt of those winds as they start to come through,

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Speaker 2: that we are keeping ourselves safe, making sure you've got

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Speaker 2: your cyclone kit, you're listening to the radio, you're listening

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Speaker 2: to those emergency broadcast events throughout the night, keeping yourself safe.

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Speaker 2: We can see this system. Oh sorry, yeah, oh you're right,

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Speaker 2: you keep going. I was just going to say, we

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Speaker 2: can see this tropical cyclone really nice and clearly on

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Speaker 2: the radar, so we can see the eye and we

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Speaker 2: can see those bands of rainfall wrapping around it as well,

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Speaker 2: so we can watch that rainfall as it starts to

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Speaker 2: move closer to the city, which will give you a

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Speaker 2: good idea of sort of when we're going to start

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Speaker 2: to see conditions deteriorating throughout sort of tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: Jess, when do you think that we will realistically start

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Speaker 1: to see that real change in weather, Because obviously, if

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Speaker 1: you look outside now, it's overcast, but you know the

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Speaker 1: weather that we're experiencing, it certainly you know it doesn't

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Speaker 1: feel like theres are cyclone looming.

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Speaker 2: No, definitely not. So two things we need to think

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Speaker 2: about here is well, I mean, according to the track

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Speaker 2: map that has been issued now, we're going to start

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Speaker 2: to see those winds really starting to ramp up tomorrow morning.

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Speaker 2: But that's really heavily dependent on how fast this system moves.

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Speaker 2: If it starts to speed up or even slow down,

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Speaker 2: the timing of those winds is going to change a

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Speaker 2: little bit. But really from tomorrow morning onwards, sort of

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Speaker 2: as we wake up in the morning, things are going

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Speaker 2: to slowly get steadily worse throughout the day. The rains

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Speaker 2: are going to increase, the winds are going to get stronger.

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Speaker 2: The winds are going to be coming down from the

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Speaker 2: northeast for the most part, or sort of an easterly

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Speaker 2: initially perhaps, so we're going to start to feel those,

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Speaker 2: and then as it moves past sort of during Saturday evening,

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Speaker 2: we will slowly start to feel a clearing trend into

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Speaker 2: Saturday night. So hopefully we can all get a little

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Speaker 2: bit of sleep.

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Speaker 1: Jess, are we expecting from what we've heard a little earlier,

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Speaker 1: we are expecting quite a large amount of rain as well.

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Speaker 2: Yes, we are so. At the moment, in the last

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Speaker 2: twenty four hours, we've had nearly one hundred and ninety

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Speaker 2: millimeters at Croker Island, and that's because the system has

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Speaker 2: been doing that you turn off the coast, So the

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Speaker 2: Cobo Peninsula has been pretty much sitting underneath the cloud

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Speaker 2: bands of this system. But similar falls could be expected

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Speaker 2: in the Darwin region as well as the system draws

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Speaker 2: past tomorrow, so it is not out of the question

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Speaker 2: to see something between sort of maybe one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty and three hundred millimeters of rainfall.

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Speaker 1: Goodness may so plenty of plenty of wet weather coming

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Speaker 1: our way.

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Speaker 2: Yes, indeed, now tomorrow is the most important day, so

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Speaker 2: please just make sure that you are following the bureau's

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Speaker 2: four back map. Try not to get too sidetracked by

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Speaker 2: looking at other third party websites that only display a

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Speaker 2: single model output. YEP, the Bureaus track maps to take

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Speaker 2: all of the model outcomes into account. We weigh the

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Speaker 2: models up against each other and use our years of

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Speaker 2: experience to put forward the most likely forecast for this scenario.

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Speaker 1: Good advice, Jessling. God always appreciate your time. Thank you

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Speaker 1: very much for having a chat with us this morning.

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Speaker 2: You're very welcome. Katie, say thank you, thanks so much.