1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:04,920 Speaker 1: Now Cotalities National Home Value Index. It rose zero point 2 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: seven percent in August, the strongest month or month gain 3 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:12,280 Speaker 1: since May last year. The result pushed the annual change 4 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: higher for the second month in a row, to four 5 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: point one percent. Now, the growth cycle has been gradually 6 00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: building momentum since the February rate cut, with buyer demand 7 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 1: spurred by a lift in borrowing capacity, real wages growth, 8 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: as well as rising confidence and what is likely to 9 00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:34,199 Speaker 1: be a growing sense of urgency as advertised stock levels 10 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: remain tight. Now, how are things looking here in the 11 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: Northern Territory. Well, joining us on the line is Tim Lawless, 12 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 1: Totalities Research Director. Good morning to you, Tim, Good morning Katie. 13 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 1: Lovely to have you on the show. Tim. First off, 14 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 1: what have the latest figures shown us on a national stage? 15 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 2: Well imaged the point seven percent growth rate certainly not 16 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:00,280 Speaker 2: shooting the Lake Sert, but it's definitely building momentum. A 17 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 2: point seven percent growth rate nationally in dollar terms means 18 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:06,400 Speaker 2: the market was up about seven thousand dollars in a month, 19 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 2: So yeah, that's pretty consequential when you're looking to get 20 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 2: into the marketplace as a first home buyer. The last 21 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 2: three months, the market's up about eighteen thousand dollars, So yeah, 22 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 2: it seems like a mild growth rate at least in 23 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 2: contrast to where the market was through the pandemic, which 24 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 2: was a peak rate of growth monthly about three percent. 25 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 2: But it's definitely rising faster than than incomes and wages 26 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 2: once again, which of course has an impact on affordability. 27 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 1: We spoke to one of the leading real estate agents 28 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: in the Northern Territory on Friday last week and spoke 29 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:44,840 Speaker 1: about the demand, I guess and the stock levels. What 30 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: have the figures shown for the Northern Territory in your 31 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 1: latest numbers. 32 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, there is a bit of a multi speed market, 33 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:55,279 Speaker 2: that's for sure. Darwin is extraordinarily strong at the moment. 34 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 2: Stock levels are remarkably below they're tracking about fifty percent 35 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 2: below the five year average for this time of the year. 36 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 2: So I think for prospective buyers there's not a lot 37 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 2: to choose from, and there probably is a bit of 38 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 2: a sense of urgency creeping into their decision making against 39 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 2: this backdrop of prices arising about one percent month on 40 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 2: month in Darwin, and there's not a lot to choose 41 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 2: from in terms of stock. So I think for buyers 42 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,360 Speaker 2: that they're probably looking to get in sooner rather than later, 43 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 2: and there's a lot of investment activity as well. We've 44 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 2: seen investors more than double in their at the level 45 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 2: of demand over the past year. Coming into Darwin probably 46 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 2: attracted to the pretty affordable buying prices. Typical price in 47 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 2: Darwin's about five hundred and fifty thousand dollars for dwelling, 48 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 2: but also really high rental yields. Yields are tracking above 49 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:45,639 Speaker 2: six percent gross, which is way higher than any other market. 50 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:49,519 Speaker 1: And so what do you think that means for territory 51 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: and listening today. I mean, if they're in the market 52 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 1: for a home or if they're sort of looking at 53 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 1: selling their homes. 54 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:00,320 Speaker 2: Well, it's different for both sides of the fan, of course. 55 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:02,239 Speaker 2: So if you're looking to get into the marketplace, I 56 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 2: think you're probably starting to experience a little bit of 57 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 2: a bit of angst. The market's moving quite quickly now 58 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 2: and there's not much stock around. It absolutely is a 59 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 2: seller's market. I think vendors are probably in a very 60 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,679 Speaker 2: good position coming into the Spring market, which is typically 61 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 2: quite active. So I think you know, if you're a seller, 62 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 2: that's great news, But if you're a buyer, Yeah, the 63 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:26,919 Speaker 2: market's starting to move a bit more quickly. 64 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 1: Now. 65 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 2: Remember the context is really important as well, Katie. We've 66 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 2: come out, but Darwin's come out of this this really 67 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 2: long slump wasn't really until twenty twenty the market started 68 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 2: to show some growth after a really long period of decline. 69 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 2: And it was only a couple of months ago that 70 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 2: Darwin actually got back to new record highs from the 71 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 2: previous peak was way back in that mayor twenty fourteen. 72 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 2: So even though the market's really starting to move now, 73 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 2: it comes after quite a long period where the market 74 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 2: has generated been quite soft. 75 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 1: What kind of impact, Like, I know we spoke about 76 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 1: some of the wage growth as well as rising confidence 77 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 1: and also the interest rate cuts, but what kind of 78 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: impact do you think some of the initiatives as well 79 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 1: that the federal government's announced around you know, your first 80 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 1: time buyers schemes for example, what kind of impact do 81 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 1: you think that's having more broadly. 82 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's all aggregated, right, So I think the biggest 83 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 2: factors here are definitely interest rates coming down in this 84 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 2: booster sentiments jobs markets are pretty tight, you know, real 85 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 2: wages growth when you'reju just for inflations, positive that the 86 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 2: strongest has been since since twenty twenty. So, but some 87 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 2: of the schemes coming in from the government, I mean 88 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 2: they expanded the posit guarantee scheme for example. I think 89 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 2: you're going to be really popular, maybe not as much 90 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:45,279 Speaker 2: in Darwin because affordability is actually relatively healthy in Darwin 91 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 2: compared to a market like say Sydney. You've got a 92 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:50,679 Speaker 2: druning value to income ratio in Darwin that's down around 93 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 2: sort of the five mark, which is quite low. Sydney's 94 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,480 Speaker 2: about double that, nearly ten. So I think for first 95 00:04:57,480 --> 00:04:59,840 Speaker 2: home buyers in Darwin that they're probably on a better 96 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 2: footing and they can probably get into the marketplace on 97 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 2: their own merits in many case. In many cases, whereas 98 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 2: a lot of other markets like Sydney's got a pricing 99 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:12,279 Speaker 2: cap of one point five million for the first home 100 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 2: buyer deposit guarantee, Darwin's is remarkably lower than that. So yeah, 101 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 2: I think you'll find that even though that scheme is 102 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 2: going to be quite popular, I think it's going to 103 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 2: be a lot more popular in the markets where affordability 104 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 2: is really stretched. 105 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, although in saying that, you know, when we were 106 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 1: speaking on Friday, about this topic. We were sort of 107 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 1: hearing from the from the real estate agent that you 108 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 1: know that there's not a lot of stock unfortunately at 109 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:42,159 Speaker 1: that five hundred thousand dollar mark and below it's more 110 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:45,599 Speaker 1: sort of up a little bit higher. So I guess 111 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 1: our stock levels are going to be the issue exactly. 112 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 2: And I think you'll find that there's probably only a 113 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 2: few suburbs where you can get in below those caps, 114 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 2: at least to the median value for buying a house. 115 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 2: The unit market's way different, and unit prices are a 116 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 2: lot lower, and potentially if you're a fresh home bar 117 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 2: in the territory and you need to rely on the 118 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 2: posit guarantee, it may be the case that after we've 119 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 2: seen a bit more price growth, that the unit market's 120 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:14,279 Speaker 2: going to be the obvious one that comes in under 121 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 2: the price caps. 122 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:18,920 Speaker 1: Any other interesting bits and pieces of info in the 123 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: latest stats that we should know about. 124 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:24,720 Speaker 2: Tim, Yeah, absolutely, Katy. It's just having look at the 125 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 2: sort of the sub markets across DAAR and just to 126 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 2: see which areas are driving the growth. And probably no 127 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:34,119 Speaker 2: surprise to any of your listeners, it is your house 128 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 2: market rather than units. Units are still sort of experiencing 129 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,599 Speaker 2: a bit of a hangover from high supply levels in 130 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 2: lower demand. So we're definitely seeing value greath being given 131 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,520 Speaker 2: by houses. And when you look at the subregions around Darwin, 132 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 2: it's absolutely Parmestont that's really driving the strongest gains. Values 133 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 2: in Palmerston are up the past twelve months by sixteen percent, 134 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 2: and then you've got sort of the out of suburbs 135 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 2: of Darwen up about twelve percent. Once you get outside 136 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 2: of Darwen, Alice Springs a pretty soft market. We've only 137 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 2: seen a one percent rise in values there in twelve 138 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 2: months and Catherine's actually down nearly two percent in twelve months. 139 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 2: So that's kind of that that chalk and cheese that 140 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 2: the two speed marketers talking about earlier. 141 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: On how's Alice Springs going. 142 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's you know that the monthly the monthly figures 143 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 2: were down one percent, so it's it was negative in 144 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 2: that respect, but we have seen some mild growth over 145 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 2: the longer term. First eight months of the year we've 146 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 2: seen the market pick up about five percent, so a 147 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 2: bit of a turnaround in that market, but compared to Darwin, 148 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:35,560 Speaker 2: it's certainly underperforming well. 149 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:37,640 Speaker 1: Tim Willless, it's always good to catch up with you. 150 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 1: I always appreciate your time. Thank you for having a 151 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: chat with us this morning. 152 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 2: Always a pleasure, Katie, Thanks you 153 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 1: Thanks so much.