Speaker 1: Already and this this is the Daily This is the
Speaker 1: Daily OS.
Speaker 2: Oh now it makes sense.
Speaker 3: Good morning and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Tuesday,
Speaker 3: the sixteenth of September. I'm Emma Gillespie.
Speaker 1: I'm Lucy Tassel.
Speaker 3: The Government has released its first assessment of the risks
Speaker 3: posed by climate.
Speaker 2: Change across Australia.
Speaker 3: The report paints a concerning picture, with predictions about what
Speaker 3: the future could look like if rising temperatures are not curbed,
Speaker 3: including a four hundred and fifty percent increase in heat
Speaker 3: related deaths in some parts of the country. Overall, the
Speaker 3: risk assessment warns that no Australian community will be immune.
Speaker 2: But the government says it has a plan.
Speaker 3: Today we are breaking down what this assessment found, what
Speaker 3: these findings mean for Australia's future, and how experts say
Speaker 3: we need to move forward in what is shaping up
Speaker 3: to be a very big climate week for the government
Speaker 3: with its twenty thirty five emissions reduction target expected by Friday.
Speaker 1: So, Emma, this is the first time we've received a
Speaker 1: report like this. For those listening who might not understand,
Speaker 1: perhaps for your co host in the studio who might
Speaker 1: not know what is this National Climate Risk Assessment.
Speaker 3: Yes, so this is a publication a report from the
Speaker 3: Australian Climate Service. Now that is a government partnership of
Speaker 3: multi agencies including the Bureau of Meteorology, the csir ROW,
Speaker 3: the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Geoscience Australia. So those
Speaker 3: expert groups have come together to assess how climate change
Speaker 3: will impact eight key systems across our society. So this
Speaker 3: includes our communities, defense, the economy, health, infrastructure, the national environment,
Speaker 3: primary industries, and First Nations groups. So the risk assessment,
Speaker 3: as you mentioned, Lucy, is the first time we've had
Speaker 3: something like this, a nationally consistent, evidence based evaluation of
Speaker 3: climate risks across all these different areas. So basically it's
Speaker 3: the most comprehensive analysis of climate risks to date. But
Speaker 3: what is interesting about it is that it looks at
Speaker 3: climate impacts really broadly in terms of how they will
Speaker 3: affect not just the environment, but health systems, infrastructure, the economy,
Speaker 3: all of those systems at once.
Speaker 1: So what are the key findings so we should know
Speaker 1: about So I.
Speaker 3: Do have to warn you that most of the findings
Speaker 3: are pretty dark.
Speaker 2: It is a pretty grim assessment.
Speaker 3: So I want that to be what we're holding on
Speaker 3: to going in, but also knowing that there is a plan,
Speaker 3: a strategy, and a framework we're going to get to. Okay,
Speaker 3: But the risk assessment models outcomes under three warming scenarios
Speaker 3: to assess what will happen at different stages, So there's
Speaker 3: kind of a forecast of how bad will things be
Speaker 3: at one point five degrees of warming, two degrees and
Speaker 3: three degrees of warming above pre industrial levels. Now, based
Speaker 3: on current global projections, the world is on track to
Speaker 3: see two point nine degrees of warming this century, So
Speaker 3: the worst case scenario in this report is not that
Speaker 3: far out of the realm of possibility.
Speaker 1: And that's a lot more than what we've talked about
Speaker 1: on this podcast before in terms of the Paris Agreement
Speaker 1: seeking to limit emissions to reduce warming to less than
Speaker 1: one point five degrees ex industrial level. So two point
Speaker 1: nine is almost.
Speaker 3: Double that exactly, and Australia has already reached one point
Speaker 3: five degrees. The headline finding is that climate risks to
Speaker 3: Australia are escalating rapidly and will worsen significantly by twenty
Speaker 3: fifty without action.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 3: What is particularly concerning is that these risks don't exist
Speaker 3: in isolation. They quote compound and cascade across different systems.
Speaker 3: So an example of this is a major flood right
Speaker 3: doesn't just damage housing and infrastructure. It disrupts supply chains,
Speaker 3: affects mental health, it impacts agriculture, It can overwhelm emergency services,
Speaker 3: It can cost the government in disaster relief funding. There
Speaker 3: are insurance implications. So this assessment is really looking at
Speaker 3: that bigger picture, and it found that many of Australia's
Speaker 3: climate hazards will become more intense and occurrent areas that
Speaker 3: haven't experienced them before. So we're looking at more frequent
Speaker 3: heat waves, bushfires, flooding, coastal hazards from rising sea levels
Speaker 3: more intensely in more places, more frequently.
Speaker 1: What are some of the places that are most at risk?
Speaker 3: So the assessment identifies several key areas of particular concern.
Speaker 3: The first is Northern Australia, so this includes the Northern
Speaker 3: Territory and parts of Queensland and Wa. We know these
Speaker 3: regions are exposed to multiple climate hazards including heat waves, flooding,
Speaker 3: tropical cyclones, bushfires, often simultaneously. So the forecast is that
Speaker 3: that gets worse in that part of the country. Coastal
Speaker 3: communities ride across Australia as well, though, face heightened risks
Speaker 3: from rising sea levels. According to the Risk Assessment So
Speaker 3: it found that by twenty fifty, the number of coastal
Speaker 3: communities in high and very high risk areas will more
Speaker 3: than double from eight to eighteen percent, and if current
Speaker 3: populations remained the same, this would mean one and a
Speaker 3: half million people living in areas experiencing rising sea levels
Speaker 3: and coastal flooding risks by twenty to fifty.
Speaker 1: And I mean when you say coastal communities, I think
Speaker 1: of population maps I've seen of Australia, which shows that
Speaker 1: pretty much everywhere in Australia is a coastal community, even
Speaker 1: if it might not feel like it. If you're in,
Speaker 1: for example, where I am, you know, further into the west,
Speaker 1: I'm not like on the sea, but I'm still in
Speaker 1: what could be classified as a coastal community.
Speaker 3: You live in a major city on the eastern seaboard, Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3: As you've mentioned, most Australians do live in quote unquote
Speaker 3: coast communities. Remote communities as well, though, according to this report,
Speaker 3: are particularly vulnerable. They often depend on single supply chains,
Speaker 3: so there's limited infrastructure and access issues when something goes wrong.
Speaker 3: These communities have fewer alternatives and that also is set
Speaker 3: to worsen with worsening climate outcomes.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we've touched a little bit on the cities. The
Speaker 1: place is where most Australians tend to live. But what
Speaker 1: more can you tell me about the projected impacts on
Speaker 1: the cities?
Speaker 3: Yes, so specifically in outer urban areas of cities. The
Speaker 3: report notes that these places are watch points because they're
Speaker 3: particularly susceptible to adverse impacts due to their location, demographics
Speaker 3: and exposure to hazards. Coastal cities, as we've touched on,
Speaker 3: face significant challenges from rising sea levels, and urban centers
Speaker 3: are increasingly at risk from extreme heat events, which the
Speaker 3: risk assessment noted strain energy systems and impact public health services.
Speaker 3: The projects heat wave deaths will increase really significantly. This
Speaker 3: is a major headline out of this report.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: For example, in Sydney and Darwin, current warming scenarios could
Speaker 3: lead to a predicted four hundred percent surge.
Speaker 2: In heat wave deaths.
Speaker 1: Wow.
Speaker 3: Even under the lower one point five degrees of warming scenario,
Speaker 3: where we are at heat wave mortality would still double.
Speaker 3: Health broadly is one of the systems facing the most
Speaker 3: severe risk escalations, So current health risks are listed as
Speaker 3: moderate to high, but they are expected to reach severe
Speaker 3: levels by twenty fifty. Interestingly, diseases like Dangi fever, Japanese
Speaker 3: and cavalitis these are also likely to spread as temperatures
Speaker 3: and rainfall patterns change. So the report notes that healthcare
Speaker 3: systems are less experienced in managing these kinds of diseases.
Speaker 3: And then there's a whole other conversation about preparedness.
Speaker 1: So one of the things that could change for Australia
Speaker 1: if more and more people are getting in different and
Speaker 1: new ways, is that the economy can be affected because
Speaker 1: if people aren't able to work or it's very difficult
Speaker 1: to do certain jobs because of the weather, that has
Speaker 1: like long term flow on effects. Exactly What else did
Speaker 1: it say about the economy, So.
Speaker 3: The report discussed insurance losses from natural disasters. We know
Speaker 3: that these have surged in recent years, but they're predicted
Speaker 3: to continue increasing. You know, with that comes increased premiums,
Speaker 3: communities getting priced out of insurance policies and as a result,
Speaker 3: government emergency disaster spending will also search to support impacted communities.
Speaker 3: Looking ahead, projected disaster costs across all states and territories
Speaker 3: could total more than forty billion dollars per year by
Speaker 3: twenty fifty. That's under the most moderate emissions scenario. So
Speaker 3: that is a figure that includes both financial and social costs.
Speaker 3: And this stood out to me is really interesting. The
Speaker 3: report estimates that Australian property values could face losses of
Speaker 3: more than six hundred billion dollars by twenty fifty. So
Speaker 3: that's the kind of housing impact of the cost of
Speaker 3: coastal erosion, flooding, rising sea levels. You know, you don't
Speaker 3: often hear the property market discussed in such grand losses.
Speaker 3: We usually are talking in the complete reverse terms. The
Speaker 3: report also noted that increased and more intense heat waves
Speaker 3: will strain energy systems at the exact time when people
Speaker 3: are going to need them the most, and you know
Speaker 3: this could see power prices surge even further.
Speaker 1: We've now touched on people quite a bit. What about
Speaker 1: our natural environment? How are our ecosystems expected to cope
Speaker 1: with all of these changes?
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is honestly one of the most concerning areas.
Speaker 3: The natural environment as we already know, as we've discussed
Speaker 3: at length here before, you know, faces really high risk
Speaker 3: from climate change, and this is expected to escalate to
Speaker 3: severe levels.
Speaker 2: By twenty fifty.
Speaker 3: So by that point, between forty and seventy percent of
Speaker 3: native plants species will be exposed to climatic conditions that
Speaker 3: they don't currently experience, So then those plants will be
Speaker 3: facing potential extinction events. Our coral reefs face an almost
Speaker 3: certain risk of catastrophic consequences. You know, even at current
Speaker 3: levels of warming, ocean pH is projected to change significantly,
Speaker 3: making it so much harder for corals and shell making
Speaker 3: organisms to survive. And the report warns of potential ecosystem
Speaker 3: collapse in many, many years. With this sort of cascading
Speaker 3: effect on the services these ecosystems provide so clean water,
Speaker 3: coastal protection, carbon storage.
Speaker 2: I could go on.
Speaker 1: Just from my quick look at the report, I know
Speaker 1: it also examines risks to First Nations communities specifically, what
Speaker 1: can you tell me about that?
Speaker 3: So, the risk assessment identified seven nationally significant climate risks
Speaker 3: specifically affecting Aboriginal and Torrestrate islander peoples. These include physical
Speaker 3: impacts as well as threats to connection to country threats,
Speaker 3: to connection to cultural practices which can have significant social
Speaker 3: and emotional impacts as well. For torrist Rate Islander communities,
Speaker 3: the assessment looked at rising sea levels, which pose direct
Speaker 3: threats to homes and cultural sites. So, you know, the
Speaker 3: ongoing theme of this assessment is what looks like maybe
Speaker 3: one risk is you know, really representative of an entire
Speaker 3: suite of threats.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so governments don't tend to release documents this bleak
Speaker 1: without also having some kind of accompanying action. What has
Speaker 1: the government said they're going to do about all of this?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you're absolutely right.
Speaker 3: Alongside this risk assessment, we have a National Adaptation Plan.
Speaker 3: This is basically looking at, okay, how can we adapt
Speaker 3: policies to move or grow with climate change, to get
Speaker 3: ahead of climate change.
Speaker 2: So you know, it's not all bleak.
Speaker 3: There are some kind of scaling up of climate change approaches,
Speaker 3: emissions reductions efforts that would mitigate a lot of these risks,
Speaker 3: or at least reduce them or improve our resilience, you know,
Speaker 3: lessening the impact of climate disaster. So this policy framework
Speaker 3: notes some initiatives that are already underway. This includes Australia's
Speaker 3: first national Health and Climate strategy, and something called the
Speaker 3: Torres Strait and Northern Peninsula Area Climate Resilience Center, which
Speaker 3: is being established to support communities facing immediate climate impacts.
Speaker 3: Exactly how the government will respond to this risk assessment
Speaker 3: remains to be seen. This plan kind of emphasizes that
Speaker 3: climate response is a dynamic and moving kind of living,
Speaker 3: breathing thing. It's not a static, one fix, one page solution.
Speaker 3: The government's really talking about bigger picture ideas, working with states,
Speaker 3: territories and local governments to create an action agenda for
Speaker 3: this plan, which it's promising by the end of next year.
Speaker 3: So you know it might sound depressing, but it is
Speaker 3: just the beginning. Really, this is a stepping stone. We
Speaker 3: have this risk assessment and now we need to continue
Speaker 3: monitoring and updating how we understand conditions changing and as
Speaker 3: we learn more about climate and its impacts and how
Speaker 3: they unfold, policy makers will respond appropriately according to what
Speaker 3: this plan says.
Speaker 1: How have those policy makers responded so far so.
Speaker 3: Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen called the
Speaker 3: Risk Assessment and Adaptation Plan a quote roadmap to address
Speaker 3: the unavoidable impacts of climate change to build a more
Speaker 3: resilient country for all communities, regions and industries. Greens leader
Speaker 3: Senator Larissa Waters said, quote the revelations about Australia's future
Speaker 3: under climate change detailed in this report are chilling. The
Speaker 3: Climate Council, which is an independent not for profit, the
Speaker 3: Greens and independent Zali Steggle have all separately responded to
Speaker 3: the findings, criticizing the government's approvals of recent coal, oil
Speaker 3: and gas projects, which they separately say are holding Australia
Speaker 3: back from emissions reduction targets. And Waters said quote, this
Speaker 3: report must be a wake up call for labor ahead
Speaker 3: of their twenty thirty five climate target.
Speaker 1: Decision, which is due this week right.
Speaker 2: Exactly so really quick.
Speaker 3: Refresher countries signed up to the Paris Agreement that includes
Speaker 3: Australia are set to announce their emissions targets for twenty
Speaker 3: thirty five ahead of this year's COP thirty climate conference
Speaker 3: in Brazil. So Australia, as part of that group, is
Speaker 3: actually expected to announce its target later this week. Thursday
Speaker 3: or Friday are the days that we are hearing rumored
Speaker 3: for the big announcement.
Speaker 2: The government so far.
Speaker 3: Hasn't made any firm commitments to put the target into law.
Speaker 3: It's been awaiting analysis for a sixty five to seventy
Speaker 3: five percent emissions reduction target from the Climate Change Authority
Speaker 3: to inform its decision. Now the Climate Council separately is
Speaker 3: urging the government to legislate the strongest possible twenty thirty
Speaker 3: five climate target, and it called the risk assessment this
Speaker 3: week a horror story. But Lucy, this this is not
Speaker 3: the last you are going to hear about all of
Speaker 3: this over the coming days, I can promise you that,
Speaker 3: So brace yourself for several other reports, including on net zero.
Speaker 3: There's a report coming on how to reduce pollution across
Speaker 3: the economy and critically the twenty thirty five target alongside
Speaker 3: the Climate Change Authorities advice.
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for explaining all of that to us.
Speaker 2: Emma, thank you for having me strap in. It's going
Speaker 2: to be a big one.
Speaker 1: It's going to be a big one, and we will
Speaker 1: be keeping all of you updated over on the TDA
Speaker 1: feed and probably back in this podcast feed again. We'll
Speaker 1: be back this afternoon with the headlines. Until then, have
Speaker 1: a great day. My name is Lily Maddon and I'm
Speaker 1: a proud Arunda Bungelung Kalkuttin woman from Gadigl country. The
Speaker 1: Daily oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on the
Speaker 1: lands of the Gadighl people and pays respect to all
Speaker 1: Aboriginal and Torres Strait island and nations. We pay our
Speaker 1: respects to the first peoples of these countries, both past
Speaker 1: and present.