WEBVTT - Australia's first climate risk assessment, explained 0:00:00.520 --> 0:00:03.720 Already and this this is the Daily This is the 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:04.480 Daily OS. 0:00:05.160 --> 0:00:06.840 Oh now it makes sense. 0:00:14.760 --> 0:00:17.800 Good morning and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Tuesday, 0:00:17.840 --> 0:00:20.600 the sixteenth of September. I'm Emma Gillespie. 0:00:20.680 --> 0:00:21.640 I'm Lucy Tassel. 0:00:22.000 --> 0:00:25.360 The Government has released its first assessment of the risks 0:00:25.440 --> 0:00:26.880 posed by climate. 0:00:26.600 --> 0:00:27.880 Change across Australia. 0:00:28.240 --> 0:00:31.720 The report paints a concerning picture, with predictions about what 0:00:31.760 --> 0:00:35.400 the future could look like if rising temperatures are not curbed, 0:00:35.960 --> 0:00:39.280 including a four hundred and fifty percent increase in heat 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:42.800 related deaths in some parts of the country. Overall, the 0:00:42.880 --> 0:00:47.400 risk assessment warns that no Australian community will be immune. 0:00:47.240 --> 0:00:49.880 But the government says it has a plan. 0:00:50.400 --> 0:00:53.760 Today we are breaking down what this assessment found, what 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:57.560 these findings mean for Australia's future, and how experts say 0:00:57.600 --> 0:00:59.960 we need to move forward in what is shaping up 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:02.760 to be a very big climate week for the government 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:07.240 with its twenty thirty five emissions reduction target expected by Friday. 0:01:12.040 --> 0:01:14.680 So, Emma, this is the first time we've received a 0:01:14.800 --> 0:01:17.920 report like this. For those listening who might not understand, 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:20.440 perhaps for your co host in the studio who might 0:01:20.480 --> 0:01:24.640 not know what is this National Climate Risk Assessment. 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:28.800 Yes, so this is a publication a report from the 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:33.399 Australian Climate Service. Now that is a government partnership of 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:38.680 multi agencies including the Bureau of Meteorology, the csir ROW, 0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:43.840 the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Geoscience Australia. So those 0:01:44.000 --> 0:01:47.800 expert groups have come together to assess how climate change 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:52.200 will impact eight key systems across our society. So this 0:01:52.280 --> 0:01:58.560 includes our communities, defense, the economy, health, infrastructure, the national environment, 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:03.400 primary industries, and First Nations groups. So the risk assessment, 0:02:03.520 --> 0:02:06.360 as you mentioned, Lucy, is the first time we've had 0:02:06.400 --> 0:02:11.120 something like this, a nationally consistent, evidence based evaluation of 0:02:11.200 --> 0:02:14.400 climate risks across all these different areas. So basically it's 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:18.360 the most comprehensive analysis of climate risks to date. But 0:02:18.440 --> 0:02:20.760 what is interesting about it is that it looks at 0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:24.320 climate impacts really broadly in terms of how they will 0:02:24.400 --> 0:02:29.440 affect not just the environment, but health systems, infrastructure, the economy, 0:02:29.800 --> 0:02:31.760 all of those systems at once. 0:02:32.120 --> 0:02:33.840 So what are the key findings so we should know 0:02:33.880 --> 0:02:35.560 about So I. 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:38.280 Do have to warn you that most of the findings 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:39.240 are pretty dark. 0:02:39.440 --> 0:02:41.160 It is a pretty grim assessment. 0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:44.079 So I want that to be what we're holding on 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:46.720 to going in, but also knowing that there is a plan, 0:02:46.800 --> 0:02:49.160 a strategy, and a framework we're going to get to. Okay, 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:54.280 But the risk assessment models outcomes under three warming scenarios 0:02:54.360 --> 0:02:58.119 to assess what will happen at different stages, So there's 0:02:58.240 --> 0:03:01.120 kind of a forecast of how bad will things be 0:03:01.200 --> 0:03:04.080 at one point five degrees of warming, two degrees and 0:03:04.200 --> 0:03:07.840 three degrees of warming above pre industrial levels. Now, based 0:03:07.840 --> 0:03:10.840 on current global projections, the world is on track to 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:15.760 see two point nine degrees of warming this century, So 0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:18.360 the worst case scenario in this report is not that 0:03:18.639 --> 0:03:21.639 far out of the realm of possibility. 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:24.160 And that's a lot more than what we've talked about 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:26.440 on this podcast before in terms of the Paris Agreement 0:03:26.840 --> 0:03:31.200 seeking to limit emissions to reduce warming to less than 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:34.359 one point five degrees ex industrial level. So two point 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:35.320 nine is almost. 0:03:35.000 --> 0:03:38.400 Double that exactly, and Australia has already reached one point 0:03:38.440 --> 0:03:42.680 five degrees. The headline finding is that climate risks to 0:03:42.760 --> 0:03:48.040 Australia are escalating rapidly and will worsen significantly by twenty 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:50.000 fifty without action. 0:03:50.320 --> 0:03:50.640 Okay. 0:03:50.840 --> 0:03:54.720 What is particularly concerning is that these risks don't exist 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:59.920 in isolation. They quote compound and cascade across different systems. 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:03.320 So an example of this is a major flood right 0:04:03.480 --> 0:04:08.080 doesn't just damage housing and infrastructure. It disrupts supply chains, 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:13.400 affects mental health, it impacts agriculture, It can overwhelm emergency services, 0:04:13.440 --> 0:04:16.560 It can cost the government in disaster relief funding. There 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:20.400 are insurance implications. So this assessment is really looking at 0:04:20.440 --> 0:04:23.680 that bigger picture, and it found that many of Australia's 0:04:23.720 --> 0:04:27.480 climate hazards will become more intense and occurrent areas that 0:04:27.600 --> 0:04:31.240 haven't experienced them before. So we're looking at more frequent 0:04:31.279 --> 0:04:35.960 heat waves, bushfires, flooding, coastal hazards from rising sea levels 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:39.240 more intensely in more places, more frequently. 0:04:39.600 --> 0:04:41.680 What are some of the places that are most at risk? 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:46.480 So the assessment identifies several key areas of particular concern. 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:49.919 The first is Northern Australia, so this includes the Northern 0:04:50.000 --> 0:04:54.000 Territory and parts of Queensland and Wa. We know these 0:04:54.040 --> 0:04:58.720 regions are exposed to multiple climate hazards including heat waves, flooding, 0:04:58.800 --> 0:05:04.320 tropical cyclones, bushfires, often simultaneously. So the forecast is that 0:05:04.320 --> 0:05:07.680 that gets worse in that part of the country. Coastal 0:05:07.720 --> 0:05:11.719 communities ride across Australia as well, though, face heightened risks 0:05:11.880 --> 0:05:14.919 from rising sea levels. According to the Risk Assessment So 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:18.159 it found that by twenty fifty, the number of coastal 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:21.200 communities in high and very high risk areas will more 0:05:21.240 --> 0:05:24.839 than double from eight to eighteen percent, and if current 0:05:24.880 --> 0:05:27.840 populations remained the same, this would mean one and a 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:32.240 half million people living in areas experiencing rising sea levels 0:05:32.320 --> 0:05:35.120 and coastal flooding risks by twenty to fifty. 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:37.839 And I mean when you say coastal communities, I think 0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:40.359 of population maps I've seen of Australia, which shows that 0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:43.600 pretty much everywhere in Australia is a coastal community, even 0:05:43.600 --> 0:05:45.440 if it might not feel like it. If you're in, 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:48.520 for example, where I am, you know, further into the west, 0:05:48.560 --> 0:05:51.040 I'm not like on the sea, but I'm still in 0:05:51.200 --> 0:05:53.120 what could be classified as a coastal community. 0:05:53.200 --> 0:05:55.960 You live in a major city on the eastern seaboard, Yeah, exactly. 0:05:56.080 --> 0:05:59.840 As you've mentioned, most Australians do live in quote unquote 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:04.320 coast communities. Remote communities as well, though, according to this report, 0:06:04.400 --> 0:06:09.440 are particularly vulnerable. They often depend on single supply chains, 0:06:09.520 --> 0:06:13.719 so there's limited infrastructure and access issues when something goes wrong. 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:17.359 These communities have fewer alternatives and that also is set 0:06:17.520 --> 0:06:20.040 to worsen with worsening climate outcomes. 0:06:20.200 --> 0:06:23.120 Yeah, we've touched a little bit on the cities. The 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:25.880 place is where most Australians tend to live. But what 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:28.440 more can you tell me about the projected impacts on 0:06:28.480 --> 0:06:28.880 the cities? 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:33.560 Yes, so specifically in outer urban areas of cities. The 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:36.800 report notes that these places are watch points because they're 0:06:36.839 --> 0:06:42.080 particularly susceptible to adverse impacts due to their location, demographics 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:45.719 and exposure to hazards. Coastal cities, as we've touched on, 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:50.720 face significant challenges from rising sea levels, and urban centers 0:06:50.760 --> 0:06:54.400 are increasingly at risk from extreme heat events, which the 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:59.080 risk assessment noted strain energy systems and impact public health services. 0:06:59.480 --> 0:07:04.560 The projects heat wave deaths will increase really significantly. This 0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:06.720 is a major headline out of this report. 0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:07.320 Yeah. 0:07:07.360 --> 0:07:11.040 For example, in Sydney and Darwin, current warming scenarios could 0:07:11.120 --> 0:07:14.440 lead to a predicted four hundred percent surge. 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:15.320 In heat wave deaths. 0:07:15.360 --> 0:07:15.640 Wow. 0:07:16.160 --> 0:07:19.640 Even under the lower one point five degrees of warming scenario, 0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:23.800 where we are at heat wave mortality would still double. 0:07:24.160 --> 0:07:27.800 Health broadly is one of the systems facing the most 0:07:27.880 --> 0:07:32.200 severe risk escalations, So current health risks are listed as 0:07:32.320 --> 0:07:35.280 moderate to high, but they are expected to reach severe 0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:40.160 levels by twenty fifty. Interestingly, diseases like Dangi fever, Japanese 0:07:40.160 --> 0:07:43.880 and cavalitis these are also likely to spread as temperatures 0:07:43.880 --> 0:07:47.239 and rainfall patterns change. So the report notes that healthcare 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:51.360 systems are less experienced in managing these kinds of diseases. 0:07:51.360 --> 0:07:55.000 And then there's a whole other conversation about preparedness. 0:07:55.360 --> 0:07:58.080 So one of the things that could change for Australia 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:01.360 if more and more people are getting in different and 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:04.440 new ways, is that the economy can be affected because 0:08:04.680 --> 0:08:07.640 if people aren't able to work or it's very difficult 0:08:07.680 --> 0:08:10.000 to do certain jobs because of the weather, that has 0:08:10.040 --> 0:08:12.800 like long term flow on effects. Exactly What else did 0:08:12.840 --> 0:08:14.640 it say about the economy, So. 0:08:14.520 --> 0:08:18.560 The report discussed insurance losses from natural disasters. We know 0:08:18.800 --> 0:08:22.560 that these have surged in recent years, but they're predicted 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:26.840 to continue increasing. You know, with that comes increased premiums, 0:08:27.280 --> 0:08:32.000 communities getting priced out of insurance policies and as a result, 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:37.480 government emergency disaster spending will also search to support impacted communities. 0:08:37.760 --> 0:08:41.559 Looking ahead, projected disaster costs across all states and territories 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:45.120 could total more than forty billion dollars per year by 0:08:45.200 --> 0:08:49.680 twenty fifty. That's under the most moderate emissions scenario. So 0:08:50.280 --> 0:08:53.240 that is a figure that includes both financial and social costs. 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:55.600 And this stood out to me is really interesting. The 0:08:55.640 --> 0:08:59.560 report estimates that Australian property values could face losses of 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:03.880 more than six hundred billion dollars by twenty fifty. So 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:06.559 that's the kind of housing impact of the cost of 0:09:06.960 --> 0:09:11.960 coastal erosion, flooding, rising sea levels. You know, you don't 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:16.280 often hear the property market discussed in such grand losses. 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:19.800 We usually are talking in the complete reverse terms. The 0:09:19.840 --> 0:09:23.320 report also noted that increased and more intense heat waves 0:09:23.360 --> 0:09:26.680 will strain energy systems at the exact time when people 0:09:26.679 --> 0:09:29.160 are going to need them the most, and you know 0:09:29.200 --> 0:09:31.920 this could see power prices surge even further. 0:09:32.600 --> 0:09:35.520 We've now touched on people quite a bit. What about 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:38.800 our natural environment? How are our ecosystems expected to cope 0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:39.840 with all of these changes? 0:09:40.000 --> 0:09:42.960 Yeah, this is honestly one of the most concerning areas. 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:46.320 The natural environment as we already know, as we've discussed 0:09:46.320 --> 0:09:49.520 at length here before, you know, faces really high risk 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:53.719 from climate change, and this is expected to escalate to 0:09:53.920 --> 0:09:55.280 severe levels. 0:09:54.880 --> 0:09:55.840 By twenty fifty. 0:09:55.960 --> 0:09:59.320 So by that point, between forty and seventy percent of 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:02.760 native plants species will be exposed to climatic conditions that 0:10:02.800 --> 0:10:06.720 they don't currently experience, So then those plants will be 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:11.480 facing potential extinction events. Our coral reefs face an almost 0:10:11.679 --> 0:10:15.640 certain risk of catastrophic consequences. You know, even at current 0:10:15.760 --> 0:10:20.040 levels of warming, ocean pH is projected to change significantly, 0:10:20.120 --> 0:10:23.600 making it so much harder for corals and shell making 0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:28.080 organisms to survive. And the report warns of potential ecosystem 0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:31.719 collapse in many, many years. With this sort of cascading 0:10:31.720 --> 0:10:35.640 effect on the services these ecosystems provide so clean water, 0:10:35.760 --> 0:10:37.920 coastal protection, carbon storage. 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:38.600 I could go on. 0:10:39.200 --> 0:10:41.040 Just from my quick look at the report, I know 0:10:41.080 --> 0:10:45.000 it also examines risks to First Nations communities specifically, what 0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:46.000 can you tell me about that? 0:10:46.320 --> 0:10:50.840 So, the risk assessment identified seven nationally significant climate risks 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:55.880 specifically affecting Aboriginal and Torrestrate islander peoples. These include physical 0:10:55.920 --> 0:10:59.800 impacts as well as threats to connection to country threats, 0:10:59.840 --> 0:11:04.280 to connection to cultural practices which can have significant social 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:07.839 and emotional impacts as well. For torrist Rate Islander communities, 0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:12.040 the assessment looked at rising sea levels, which pose direct 0:11:12.120 --> 0:11:15.720 threats to homes and cultural sites. So, you know, the 0:11:15.720 --> 0:11:19.080 ongoing theme of this assessment is what looks like maybe 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:22.800 one risk is you know, really representative of an entire 0:11:22.920 --> 0:11:23.920 suite of threats. 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:28.520 Yeah, so governments don't tend to release documents this bleak 0:11:28.640 --> 0:11:31.719 without also having some kind of accompanying action. What has 0:11:31.760 --> 0:11:33.640 the government said they're going to do about all of this? 0:11:33.880 --> 0:11:35.480 Yeah, so you're absolutely right. 0:11:35.600 --> 0:11:39.640 Alongside this risk assessment, we have a National Adaptation Plan. 0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:44.120 This is basically looking at, okay, how can we adapt 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:48.880 policies to move or grow with climate change, to get 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:50.440 ahead of climate change. 0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:52.920 So you know, it's not all bleak. 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:57.400 There are some kind of scaling up of climate change approaches, 0:11:57.520 --> 0:12:01.400 emissions reductions efforts that would mitigate a lot of these risks, 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:04.760 or at least reduce them or improve our resilience, you know, 0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:09.520 lessening the impact of climate disaster. So this policy framework 0:12:09.760 --> 0:12:13.520 notes some initiatives that are already underway. This includes Australia's 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:16.720 first national Health and Climate strategy, and something called the 0:12:16.720 --> 0:12:20.920 Torres Strait and Northern Peninsula Area Climate Resilience Center, which 0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:24.840 is being established to support communities facing immediate climate impacts. 0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:28.800 Exactly how the government will respond to this risk assessment 0:12:28.960 --> 0:12:32.480 remains to be seen. This plan kind of emphasizes that 0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:37.680 climate response is a dynamic and moving kind of living, 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:42.040 breathing thing. It's not a static, one fix, one page solution. 0:12:42.520 --> 0:12:46.679 The government's really talking about bigger picture ideas, working with states, 0:12:46.760 --> 0:12:51.120 territories and local governments to create an action agenda for 0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:54.480 this plan, which it's promising by the end of next year. 0:12:54.760 --> 0:12:58.120 So you know it might sound depressing, but it is 0:12:58.400 --> 0:13:01.400 just the beginning. Really, this is a stepping stone. We 0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:04.840 have this risk assessment and now we need to continue 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:09.199 monitoring and updating how we understand conditions changing and as 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:11.960 we learn more about climate and its impacts and how 0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:17.000 they unfold, policy makers will respond appropriately according to what 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:17.760 this plan says. 0:13:18.240 --> 0:13:21.160 How have those policy makers responded so far so. 0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:24.400 Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen called the 0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:28.600 Risk Assessment and Adaptation Plan a quote roadmap to address 0:13:28.600 --> 0:13:31.280 the unavoidable impacts of climate change to build a more 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:36.040 resilient country for all communities, regions and industries. Greens leader 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:40.000 Senator Larissa Waters said, quote the revelations about Australia's future 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:43.960 under climate change detailed in this report are chilling. The 0:13:44.000 --> 0:13:46.960 Climate Council, which is an independent not for profit, the 0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:51.000 Greens and independent Zali Steggle have all separately responded to 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:55.480 the findings, criticizing the government's approvals of recent coal, oil 0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:59.520 and gas projects, which they separately say are holding Australia 0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:03.920 back from emissions reduction targets. And Waters said quote, this 0:14:04.000 --> 0:14:06.480 report must be a wake up call for labor ahead 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:08.840 of their twenty thirty five climate target. 0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:10.840 Decision, which is due this week right. 0:14:10.920 --> 0:14:13.200 Exactly so really quick. 0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:16.320 Refresher countries signed up to the Paris Agreement that includes 0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:19.400 Australia are set to announce their emissions targets for twenty 0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:22.320 thirty five ahead of this year's COP thirty climate conference 0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:25.160 in Brazil. So Australia, as part of that group, is 0:14:25.160 --> 0:14:28.680 actually expected to announce its target later this week. Thursday 0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:32.400 or Friday are the days that we are hearing rumored 0:14:32.400 --> 0:14:33.280 for the big announcement. 0:14:33.760 --> 0:14:34.960 The government so far. 0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:38.520 Hasn't made any firm commitments to put the target into law. 0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:42.360 It's been awaiting analysis for a sixty five to seventy 0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:46.080 five percent emissions reduction target from the Climate Change Authority 0:14:46.360 --> 0:14:50.240 to inform its decision. Now the Climate Council separately is 0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:54.240 urging the government to legislate the strongest possible twenty thirty 0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:57.560 five climate target, and it called the risk assessment this 0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:00.480 week a horror story. But Lucy, this this is not 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:03.160 the last you are going to hear about all of 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:05.200 this over the coming days, I can promise you that, 0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:09.800 So brace yourself for several other reports, including on net zero. 0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:12.880 There's a report coming on how to reduce pollution across 0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:17.520 the economy and critically the twenty thirty five target alongside 0:15:17.720 --> 0:15:19.560 the Climate Change Authorities advice. 0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:22.480 Thanks so much for explaining all of that to us. 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:24.400 Emma, thank you for having me strap in. It's going 0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:25.000 to be a big one. 0:15:25.080 --> 0:15:26.640 It's going to be a big one, and we will 0:15:26.680 --> 0:15:29.280 be keeping all of you updated over on the TDA 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:32.840 feed and probably back in this podcast feed again. We'll 0:15:32.880 --> 0:15:35.560 be back this afternoon with the headlines. Until then, have 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:41.920 a great day. My name is Lily Maddon and I'm 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:46.440 a proud Arunda Bungelung Kalkuttin woman from Gadigl country. The 0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:49.600 Daily oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on the 0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:52.360 lands of the Gadighl people and pays respect to all 0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:55.560 Aboriginal and Torres Strait island and nations. We pay our 0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:58.760 respects to the first peoples of these countries, both past 0:15:58.840 --> 0:15:59.360 and present.