1 00:00:00,520 --> 00:00:04,320 Speaker 1: Already, and this is the Daily This is the Daily. 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 2: Ohs oh, now it makes sense. Good morning, and welcome 3 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 2: to the Daily OS. It's Tuesday, the fifth of November. 4 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 3: I'm emma, I'm zara. 5 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 2: Well, the US election has finally arrived. 6 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 3: Finally sort of. 7 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 2: By the time most Aussies go to bed tonight, voting 8 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 2: will have opened in most American states, and by the 9 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 2: time most of us finished work tomorrow, polls in all 10 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 2: fifty states will have closed and counting will have begun 11 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 2: to determine who will be the next President of the 12 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 2: United States, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. 13 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 3: It's going to be a big week. I think that's 14 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 3: the understatement of the century. But TDA has got you covered. 15 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 3: Over the next few days, we are going to switch 16 00:00:57,120 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 3: up the Daily Pod a bit. So with so much 17 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 3: Whi's going on and so much information to get your 18 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:04,399 Speaker 3: head around, we wanted to keep you as up to 19 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 3: date as possible, which means that over the next few 20 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 3: days we'll be dropping a US election deep dive like 21 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:13,559 Speaker 3: the one that you're about to hear. Every morning. Those 22 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 3: episodes will be in your feed when you wake up 23 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:19,560 Speaker 3: as normal. Then every afternoon we're also going to bring 24 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 3: you the latest news from around the world with a 25 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 3: quick evening headline update. So more the merrier two drops 26 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,960 Speaker 3: a day, morning deep dive afternoon headlines. What's not to love? 27 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 3: Love it without further ado m what is our first 28 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 3: deep dive today about? 29 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:35,119 Speaker 1: Well? 30 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 2: I've been thinking a lot about the magnitude of this 31 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:41,760 Speaker 2: election campaign, how much it's dominated global headlines and how 32 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 2: long it's dominated headlines for. But if you're sick of 33 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 2: hearing about it, or wondering if it even matters to 34 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 2: us here in Australia, I can completely understand why. But 35 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 2: from you know, trade to defense, the economy, culture, diplomacy, 36 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 2: foreign aid, a Trump presidency to Harras presidency could look 37 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 2: really different for us here in Australia and around the world. 38 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 2: So to explain what this election could mean for Australians, 39 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 2: I've managed to pin down one of the busiest people 40 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 2: in Australian media this week, host of the ABC's Planet America, 41 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 2: Chas Lichardello. Chas is a self identifying Yanka file, which 42 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:24,080 Speaker 2: feels like an understatement. He is the authority, an absolute 43 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 2: expert in all things American politics, and he is joining 44 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 2: us today to talk through this idea of why the 45 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:34,799 Speaker 2: election matters to Australians and what a Harris v. Trump 46 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 2: presidency could. 47 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 1: Look like for us. 48 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 2: Here you're gonna hear our chat coming up right after 49 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 2: this chas Welcome to the podcast. Election week is finally here. 50 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 2: We have been paying very close attention to what is 51 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 2: only being described as a race that is getting tighter. 52 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 2: Before we dive in though today, what's the latest on 53 00:02:57,320 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 2: the poll front? What's the crystal ball say this week? 54 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 1: It is genuinely fifty to fifty, Like the polecasters who 55 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: I pay most attention to, the aggregators, like the Cook 56 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,519 Speaker 1: Political Report five point thirty eight, they are literally saying 57 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: fifty one percent chance of Trump winning fifty one percent chance. 58 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 1: It's as close to a fifty to fifty as you 59 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 1: can possibly get. So the analogy I've been drawing all week, 60 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: and I'll draw it with you as well. If you've 61 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,360 Speaker 1: heard me draw it somewhere else, I'm sorry every single 62 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 1: thing you hear from a so called expert in clean 63 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 1: What I'm about to tell you is the top of 64 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 1: the iceberg, below the water, we don't know what is there. 65 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 1: There could be three points of error below the water. 66 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 1: We just don't know, And there are seven states that 67 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: can go either way, which doesn't mean it's going to 68 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 1: take three weeks of counting. It doesn't mean that it's 69 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 1: going to be in actual fifty to fifty results. It 70 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 1: just means anything is possible, That's what it means. 71 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, as the upholsters and the experts continue to hypothesize. Obviously, 72 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 2: you know, this is a campaign that has dominated global 73 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 2: headlines and that tells us a lot about America's global influence. 74 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 2: But there might be Ossie's young Ossies in particular, who 75 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:17,839 Speaker 2: are frankly sick of hearing about it. So what I 76 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 2: really wanted to chat to you about a little bit 77 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:22,560 Speaker 2: today was more on you know, why they should care 78 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:25,839 Speaker 2: if they should care. So can we start on the 79 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 2: Australia US relationship In what ways are we important to 80 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 2: each other? 81 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:35,719 Speaker 1: Well, there are some direct ways, some direct obvious ways, like, 82 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:39,359 Speaker 1: for instance, defense agreements that we have in place with 83 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 1: America where America stops us being invaded by other countries, 84 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 1: and America has a whole bunch of bases on our land, 85 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 1: and we have agreements to build submarines together, and that 86 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 1: submarine agreement, by the way, which is a big agreement 87 00:04:55,320 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 1: for US for Australia that's not necessarily locked down. If 88 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 1: Trump becomes president again, he might just tear that up. 89 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 1: There has been talk of it being torn up. But 90 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 1: also on top of that, with the president, there's some 91 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:12,599 Speaker 1: things they say they can do that really they can't do, 92 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:15,239 Speaker 1: and then there's things they say they can do which 93 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:18,279 Speaker 1: they can absolutely do and no one can stop them. 94 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 1: One of those things that no one can stop are tariffs. 95 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 1: Trump is obsessed with tariffs, and he can do them 96 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 1: by himself. He can lay tariffs down as much as 97 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,560 Speaker 1: he likes according to American law. What that means is 98 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:37,480 Speaker 1: Australia we export a lot to America and we also 99 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:41,600 Speaker 1: export to a lot of other countries that also trade 100 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 1: with America. So if Trump cuts off America from the 101 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 1: rest of the world as far as trading goes, that 102 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 1: creates a lot of potential opportunities for Australia with those 103 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:57,600 Speaker 1: other countries, trading opportunities with say China, with Japan. There's 104 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:02,240 Speaker 1: also the opportunities we have with America. Like Trump has 105 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 1: notoriously fought with a bunch of other countries in the past, 106 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 1: and I expected this term wouldn't be any different. But 107 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:12,720 Speaker 1: if Australia can get on his good side and can 108 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 1: suck up to him just the right way, that could 109 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: potentially provide opportunities for Australia as well. So, at least 110 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:22,839 Speaker 1: in a financial sense, you might say Trump being president 111 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 1: could be better for Australia than Harris being president. But 112 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 1: then there's another side to this as well. The side 113 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 1: is how do you feel that Taiwan getting invaded by China? 114 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 1: Because I reckon Trump could potentially not fight that as 115 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 1: hard as Harris could. I mean, you just need to 116 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 1: see how he's reacted to Ukraine. Taiwan might be Ukraine 117 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 1: Part two. For all we know, China seems to be 118 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 1: interpreting Taiwan as Ukraine Part two. So if Trump is 119 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 1: in power, that might lead to potentially conflagration in Taiwan 120 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:03,040 Speaker 1: that we could either get sucked into or be affected 121 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 1: by in some way. So there's a lot of reasons 122 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 1: why Australia should care directly about America other than just 123 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: enjoying the reality TV nature of it. 124 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 2: The circus the greatest show on Earth. So some kind 125 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 2: of global diplomacy question marks their economic uncertainty. Of course, 126 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 2: we're in a unique situation here where we know what 127 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 2: a presidency under Donald Trump has looked like. So in 128 00:07:28,440 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 2: terms of the implications for Australia, are there any lessons 129 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 2: there from his four years of leadership that have come 130 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 2: and gone. 131 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 1: There are certainly lessons that people have acted like they've learned, 132 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 1: but I'm not sure there's clear cut as people suggest, like, 133 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 1: for instance, while I just said to you, now, suck 134 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 1: up to Donald Trump and there's some opportunities there in 135 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 1: for you, But maybe that's not the lesson because Malcolm 136 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:57,040 Speaker 1: Turnbull famously didn't suck up the Donald Trump. He stood 137 00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: up to Donald Trump and he'd got in his face 138 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 1: and it worked for him. So I think the bottom 139 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 1: line with Donald Trump, it's about personal diplomacy. I don't 140 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 1: think there is a strict rule of thumb exactly how 141 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 1: you deal with him. I just think he responds well 142 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 1: to some people and not so well to others, and 143 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 1: it's just a case of how well the Australian Prime 144 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:20,680 Speaker 1: Minister can suss him out. Like I don't know if 145 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: if Anthony ALBERNIZI has the right stuff to suss him out, 146 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 1: maybe he'd be excellent at it. I don't really. 147 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 2: Know if we imagine a Kamala Harris presidency, can you 148 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 2: foreshadow any immediate significant changes for the Australian people. 149 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 1: No, no, no, not really, And a lot of her 150 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 1: policies continuing what the Biden administration was already doing. But 151 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 1: I think by her nature she seems to be quite cautious. 152 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 1: I've been following her for eight years, and the whole 153 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 1: time she's always been nervous about making mistakes. She takes 154 00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:59,320 Speaker 1: her time to make decisions, and she makes them carefully, 155 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 1: and she doesn't make big decisions. She likes to nibble 156 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 1: a bit of a time. So I don't think there'd 157 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: be any drastic changes immediately with Kamala Harris, And any 158 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:11,840 Speaker 1: change that did occur, I think would be signaled pretty 159 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 1: heavily well in advance, so we'd have time to work 160 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 1: it out. 161 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:18,200 Speaker 2: Let's zoom out globally. You've touched a little bit on 162 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:22,679 Speaker 2: global conflict. What would a Harris presidency and a Trump 163 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:26,840 Speaker 2: presidency look like for funding an aid for global conflicts? 164 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 2: So the Middle East and Russia and Ukraine. 165 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 1: Okay, Well, let's start with the easy one, which is 166 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 1: Trump and Ukraine funding ends tomorrow. If if Trump is president, 167 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: funding for Ukraine ends tomorrow. Like he is. He has 168 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 1: shown no interest whatsoever in perpetuating that battle or that 169 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 1: war in any way, shape or form. I mean, he 170 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 1: very much talks about ending the war on one day 171 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: through negotiation, and that means making some kind of deal, 172 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:58,880 Speaker 1: striking some kind of deal that Putin would accept, because 173 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,520 Speaker 1: Zelenski's not the person and who can dictate his terms 174 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:04,760 Speaker 1: in this war at this point in time. So I 175 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 1: would say funding would end, and I would say the 176 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 1: war would end on unsatisfactory terms for people who are 177 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:16,360 Speaker 1: on Ukraine side. I would suggest for the Ukraine Karma Harris, 178 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 1: I think things will continue on as they are with Ukraine. 179 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 1: I don't think there be any difference now as far 180 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 1: as Israel goes. Karma Harris has definitely tried to occupy 181 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: a position slightly less slavishly pro Israel than America has 182 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:33,560 Speaker 1: been in the past, but she hasn't gone all the 183 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 1: way to pro Palestinian. She's just been more likely to 184 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:42,840 Speaker 1: criticize Israel when they're skimping on aid, for instance, or 185 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:46,839 Speaker 1: when they're getting in the way of other people providing aid, 186 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 1: or when it seems like they've been overly aggressive in 187 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: their attacks in a way that would impact on the 188 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 1: Palestinian civilians. She's been much more forward in criticizing Israel 189 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: than Biden has, but tactically I'm not sure she's all 190 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 1: that different, So I'm not sure that would change too 191 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 1: much if she became present now Trump, things could change 192 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 1: a bit there as well. Trump's attitude to Israel is 193 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:17,439 Speaker 1: just end this as fast as possible. You break all 194 00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 1: the bottles that you need to do, you drop all 195 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: the bombs you need to do, just get it finished fast. 196 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:27,319 Speaker 1: That's pretty much his attitude, and so I suspect that 197 00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 1: Netanya who would take advantage of that to escalate in 198 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: the short term the conflict, particularly with Hesbela and with 199 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: her mass. I'm not sure he'd necessarily rub a stamp 200 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:43,680 Speaker 1: and I ran war, but I suspect there'd be a 201 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 1: lot of bombing going on in Beirut and in Gaza 202 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 1: pretty quickly if Trump took over, with a view to 203 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 1: hopefully ending the conflict faster as well. But in the meantime, 204 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,559 Speaker 1: I don't think people who are concerned about what's happening 205 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: in Guarda at the moment would enjoy the next few 206 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:05,319 Speaker 1: months if Trump took over. 207 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 2: What would that look like for you know, US allies. 208 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 2: I'm thinking of not just Australia, but other global Western powers. 209 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 2: If suddenly, you know, literally overnight, the approach from the 210 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:22,320 Speaker 2: US to these major global conflicts shifted, how does that 211 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 2: implicate those relationships between the allies. 212 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: I don't think what would happen in Israel or Ukraine 213 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 1: would necessarily change that a lot, because I think it's 214 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 1: not a surprise. Trump has been signaling for a long 215 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 1: time what he's going to be doing. I think the 216 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:44,439 Speaker 1: issue with our other allies is how Trump approaches alliances 217 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:49,160 Speaker 1: like NATO. In the past, he has been some would say, 218 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:54,080 Speaker 1: obsessed with the percentage of GDP that each country is 219 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 1: spending on defense, because under NATO there's kind of a 220 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:01,840 Speaker 1: gentleman's agreement that you're supposed to spend two percent of 221 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 1: your GDP on defense, and Trump treated that like it 222 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 1: was some kind of duty that you were paying, some 223 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:13,960 Speaker 1: kind of toll. But I think that if Trump is 224 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 1: comfortable with where the other countries are in NATO and 225 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 1: can stop rocking the boat, then it wouldn't necessarily be 226 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:24,560 Speaker 1: a big change in the relationship between America and European countries. 227 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:27,840 Speaker 1: And we're mostly talking about European countries here, but if 228 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 1: he gets to be in his bond and about NATO, 229 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 1: I think that at this point in time, I think 230 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 1: there'd be a few European countries that would start to say, 231 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 1: I'm not sure we can rely on these guys anymore. 232 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:41,959 Speaker 1: It might be time for Europe to start building our 233 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: own defense capacity away from America. It might be time 234 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 1: for Europe to get its own nuclear program away from America, 235 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 1: and it would be interesting to see how that develops. 236 00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 2: We've touched on the more political side of the potential impacts, 237 00:13:56,480 --> 00:14:00,040 Speaker 2: but culturally, you know, two thirds of Americans said that 238 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 2: that they're expecting violence after the election. The US is 239 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 2: an epicenter of culture. It sets the agenda for the 240 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 2: rest of us. With the impending violence that people are predicting. 241 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 2: What kind of tone does that set if we see 242 00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 2: that happen a second time? How are you feeling about 243 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 2: that side of things? 244 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, lookin I think you make a really good point. 245 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: Is it different when you see the second time? Does 246 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 1: it start becoming commonplace? And I must say, one of 247 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 1: the concerns I have about this era of politics, and 248 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 1: I'm not just referring to Trump here, but Trump has 249 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 1: obviously been driving this era. We're now in twenty twenty four. 250 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:45,800 Speaker 1: People who came of political consciousness after twenty fourteen, that's 251 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 1: ten years now. So let's say kids start to become 252 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,640 Speaker 1: politically aware, it's say sixteen seventeen. There are people now 253 00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 1: who are twenty six who know nothing but this era, 254 00:14:56,520 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 1: and who know nothing but civil unrest and Twitter spats 255 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: and adults acting like kids and constant brinksmanship and parisanship 256 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 1: and hatred, like this has been a bad ten years 257 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 1: as far as social harmony goes, and this is all 258 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 1: they know. If this continues for another four years, whether 259 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 1: it's Harris or Trump as president, then you're talking about 260 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 1: thirty year olds who this is all they know. That 261 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 1: worries me. That worries me because if this is all 262 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 1: you know, then you are doomed to recreate it yourself 263 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 1: when you are in charge. And we're getting to the 264 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 1: point where some of these people are old enough to 265 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 1: be in charge themselves. That is concerning. If we do 266 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 1: have another election post period like we had last time, 267 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 1: I would be concerned that this was starting to become 268 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 1: democracy as practiced by America and it would continue on. 269 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 1: So yes, I really hope that's not the case. One 270 00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 1: thing I'm encouraged by is the fact we are all 271 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 1: talking about it. I think helps headed up off. I 272 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 1: think violence is more likely to occur when it's a surprise, 273 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 1: because when everyone's expecting it, people are trying. There will 274 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 1: be people trying to calm other people down, going well, 275 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:14,040 Speaker 1: hang on, hang on, let's not let's not get let's 276 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 1: not get hasty here. And also it's not just that. 277 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:21,040 Speaker 1: Also with the Supreme Court, everyone is expecting the lawsuits. 278 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:25,480 Speaker 1: Everyone is expecting a rehash of what happened in January 279 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 1: sixth when there was some scheme to try and work 280 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 1: around the rules. Everyone's expecting all of that, and they're 281 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 1: gonna be looking out for it. There'll be lawyers everywhere 282 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 1: on election day. They're gonna be They're gonna be drowning 283 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:41,360 Speaker 1: in lawyers on election day and in that period afterwards. 284 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 1: And that's kind of like I would compare it to 285 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 1: the situation in the sixties with nuclear war between Russia 286 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: and America, where they both they were both armed to 287 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 1: the teeth and they both knew what the other side 288 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 1: would do, and so they were trying to avoid pulling 289 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 1: the trigger. It was God, I mutually assured destruction. There's 290 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 1: kind of mutually assured destruction. And the legal situation in 291 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 1: American politics in mind, with the lawyers everywhere from either 292 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 1: side scrutinizing each other. And my hope is that keeps 293 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 1: everyone in check. That's my hope. But we'll see. 294 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 2: I think it's interesting even you know, here in Australia, 295 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 2: regardless of your political identity, there does seem to be 296 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 2: a renewed sentiment of gratefulness, like, oh, we're lucky that 297 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 2: that's not what it's like here. At the end of 298 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 2: the day. People seem to have a little bit more 299 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:35,800 Speaker 2: gratitude for the peacefulness here. 300 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,120 Speaker 1: We should be grateful, we really should, like there are 301 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 1: I mean, I've always been a bit of a yanker file. 302 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: I do love America a lot. Having this job has 303 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:49,399 Speaker 1: led me to appreciate Australia a lot more and appreciate 304 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:54,159 Speaker 1: the very simple little differences that end up having huge consequences, Like, 305 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 1: for instance, compulsory voting is something where that I used 306 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 1: to be against, Like fifteen years ago or twenty years ago, 307 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:02,960 Speaker 1: I was against compulsory voting. I thought it was horrible. 308 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 1: I hated it. I mean, like I hate being forced 309 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:09,680 Speaker 1: to get up and go down to a church I've went. 310 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:13,119 Speaker 1: With American politics, it makes a big difference. Like society 311 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:17,159 Speaker 1: functions much better with compulsory voting, and the reason for 312 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 1: that is because when there isn't compulsory voting, these sides 313 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 1: are trying to drive out their base more than anything else. 314 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 1: They have to convince them to vote, and that forces 315 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:30,160 Speaker 1: them to be more extreme. One of the reasons why 316 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 1: America polarizers is because they are pitching to the extreme. 317 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 1: Another thing about compulsory voting is it forces them to 318 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 1: not be negative. Because in Australia, when someone runs too 319 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:43,440 Speaker 1: negative a campaign, the people who don't give a shit, 320 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 1: who are in the middle, and then they're disinterested and 321 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:48,639 Speaker 1: they don't care about politics at all. They get pissed off. 322 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 1: In Australia, if you piss them off, you know they're 323 00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:54,760 Speaker 1: going to vote, whereas in America, if you piss them off, 324 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 1: they might just stay hard. I'm grateful that we've got 325 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 1: an electoral commission that's independent and neutral, whereas in America 326 00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:05,879 Speaker 1: the people run the elections are Democrats and Republicans. It's insane. 327 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 1: There's a lot of things I can go on like 328 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,680 Speaker 1: this forever, but we should be we should be grateful that, yeah, 329 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:12,920 Speaker 1: that we live in Australia and it's never going to 330 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 1: be like America because of these structural differences. 331 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:19,199 Speaker 2: Chas before we let you go, it'll be remissively not 332 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 2: to check in with you on some of the criminal 333 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:25,640 Speaker 2: proceedings against Donald Trump. This isn't a discussion that's been 334 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 2: really in the spotlight so much the last few months. 335 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:32,960 Speaker 2: But what could a Trump presidency mean for those proceedings? 336 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 1: Okay, well, there are there are four cases that have 337 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:39,480 Speaker 1: been against Trump the whole time. The two federal cases 338 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 1: where there was a January sixth case, and there was 339 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 1: also the case of the taking the documents, these private documents, 340 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 1: these classified documents and storing them in marri Lago. Now, 341 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:53,439 Speaker 1: the Mari Lago case has been dismissed for now, but 342 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 1: it will come back if it has the opportunity to 343 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:58,680 Speaker 1: come back. It won't come back if Trump is president. 344 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 1: Trump will also end the gener sixth case. If he 345 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:04,200 Speaker 1: is president, they're gone. Then there are two other cases. 346 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,960 Speaker 1: There's a January sixth case in Georgia, which has its 347 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:10,400 Speaker 1: own problems. I wouldn't be expecting that to be happening 348 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,160 Speaker 1: anytime in the next year or two. But Trump can't 349 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 1: stop that that's going ahead. The other one is the 350 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 1: New York case where he's been found guilty already and 351 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 1: sentencing is coming down, probably after the election, and Trump 352 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,520 Speaker 1: is not stopping that. He is getting sentenced. Now, you 353 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:30,560 Speaker 1: might go, he can be in jail while he's president. 354 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:37,880 Speaker 1: Theoretically yes, but if he is actually jailed while he's president, 355 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,400 Speaker 1: what will happen is they'll appeal that to the Supreme 356 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:45,399 Speaker 1: Court and they'll say this is infringing the constitutional duties 357 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 1: of the president for him to be in jail, and 358 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:50,000 Speaker 1: they'll say, yes, we will put off your jail time 359 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,880 Speaker 1: until after you're no longer president. So I don't think 360 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,040 Speaker 1: he'll get sense to chail time anyway, to be honest, 361 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:58,119 Speaker 1: But whatever happens, he cannot stop that that is going 362 00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:00,920 Speaker 1: to happen. That sensing will happen, and he will serve 363 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 1: his time one way or another, regardless of whether he's president. 364 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 2: Is there any way a Harris presidency could expedite some 365 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,119 Speaker 2: of these proceedings, could ramp things up a little bit 366 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 2: for him on the criminal front. 367 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:16,160 Speaker 1: If Harris's president's a direct opposite the two state proceeds 368 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,800 Speaker 1: I just described before. She can't affect, so they will 369 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 1: continue on. As I just said, the Trump will be 370 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,920 Speaker 1: sentenced on the New York trial and the Georgia trial 371 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,399 Speaker 1: will be up to the competence of the prosecutor. But 372 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,719 Speaker 1: the other ones will be the problem for Trump, the 373 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:32,439 Speaker 1: ones that he would have dismissed. The two federal proceedings, 374 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:36,399 Speaker 1: the January sixth one will definitely be preceding with I 375 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 1: think quite a lot of vigor if Carla Harris becomes 376 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 1: the president, and I would expect a verdict in that 377 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 1: trial probably very early next year, maybe February or March, 378 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 1: I would say, and then depends what happens when he's 379 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 1: found guilty then a sentence, so that one is the 380 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:54,160 Speaker 1: one he'd be most worried about. Then there's the matter 381 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,680 Speaker 1: Lago case, which I do think if Karla Harris's president 382 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 1: will be revised. There's an easy way for them to 383 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: do that legally, and I think they will, and I 384 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 1: think that that will also happen. I think in both 385 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 1: those cases, if he's found guilty, he's going to jail. 386 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 1: So I would say that, especially the Marle Lago case, 387 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,440 Speaker 1: that's got jail time written all over it. That's got 388 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,960 Speaker 1: real jail time written all over it. So I would 389 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 1: say if Kamala Harris becomes president, she's going to have 390 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 1: a tough decision to make because she's probably not gonna 391 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:27,239 Speaker 1: have the Senate. We're going to find out the next 392 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 1: day or two, obviously, but I think the chances of 393 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,840 Speaker 1: the Democrats winning the Senate or again fifty seats in 394 00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 1: the Senate, and if Karma Harris is president then she 395 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:41,240 Speaker 1: will control the Senate is below ten percent the coin 396 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:44,920 Speaker 1: to the main pole aggregators, so it's very unlikely. Right 397 00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:47,199 Speaker 1: If she doesn't have the Senate, she's going to have 398 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 1: a choice to make. Do I stand in the way 399 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 1: of Trump going to jail and then I can function 400 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:59,160 Speaker 1: with the Republican Senate, Or do I choose to allow 401 00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 1: the court cases to proceed and for him to go 402 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,959 Speaker 1: to jail and the Republicans who hold the Senate stop 403 00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:10,720 Speaker 1: me doing anything for the rest of my presidency. That's 404 00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 1: going to be a tough decision for her, Wow, because 405 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,840 Speaker 1: if she chooses the easy option for her and she 406 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:19,960 Speaker 1: gets in the way of the prosecutions so that she 407 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,880 Speaker 1: can get along with the Republicans in the Senate. Then 408 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,399 Speaker 1: the Democrats will pray spit the dummy, because the Democrats go, 409 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,639 Speaker 1: hang on, this guy's never held accountable ever. The first 410 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:32,239 Speaker 1: time he might get held accountable, You a Democrat, got 411 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 1: in the way. What are you doing? So she's kind 412 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 1: of damned if she does, damned if she doesn't. It's 413 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,600 Speaker 1: going to be a really tough situation for Kama Harris 414 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 1: if she wins the presidency and doesn't win the Senate. 415 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:44,240 Speaker 1: So that's something to look out for. 416 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 2: Wow, Chas, I wonder if in six months time I'll 417 00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 2: be chatting to you about the president who sent Donald 418 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:50,480 Speaker 2: Trump to jail. 419 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 1: You may you may well be. 420 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 2: Time will tell it now. I'm not going to ask 421 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:58,240 Speaker 2: you what your predictions are. I hope that you get 422 00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 2: some sleep this week, and we really really appreciate your 423 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaker 2: time today, Chas. Where can our listeners look out for 424 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,240 Speaker 2: your analysis over the coming days. 425 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 1: We're going to be making a live show on eight 426 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,320 Speaker 1: o'clock on News twenty four on election Night, So that's 427 00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:17,280 Speaker 1: Wednesday in Australia Wednesday, eight pm News twenty four. I'll 428 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,439 Speaker 1: be repeat at nine point thirty on ABC one. But 429 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:23,359 Speaker 1: you should watch a live, so that's the best place 430 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,960 Speaker 1: to go. And I'm have a podcast out next Friday, 431 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 1: usual time eight o'clock on the A News channel on Friday, 432 00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 1: and I'll have a podcast out, Big podcast out. The 433 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,679 Speaker 1: pet podcast with me and Doctor Dave on Friday night is. 434 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:40,399 Speaker 2: One brilliant Thank you so much, Chaz. Stay hydrated and 435 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:41,560 Speaker 2: we will chat to you soon. 436 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:42,879 Speaker 1: Thank you so much. 437 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,880 Speaker 3: Thank you so much for listening to today's deep dive. 438 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:50,040 Speaker 3: I am going to just send this to everyone who 439 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 3: aggressively messages us saying you're not the Daily America, You're 440 00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:57,320 Speaker 3: the Daily Ours. Everything in this world is interconnected. No 441 00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 3: decision happens in a vacuum, and I think that this 442 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,959 Speaker 3: discussion is such a good example of why that is 443 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:06,720 Speaker 3: and how something like a US election can influence us 444 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,200 Speaker 3: back here in Australia. We will be back in your 445 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:14,440 Speaker 3: ears this afternoon. Wow, we're the latest news headlines before 446 00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,600 Speaker 3: another deep dive tomorrow morning. Catchu later by. 447 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:23,040 Speaker 1: My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda 448 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:28,080 Speaker 1: Bungelung Caalcuttin woman from Gadighl Country. The Daily oz acknowledges 449 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,280 Speaker 1: that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the 450 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,880 Speaker 1: Gadighl people, and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres 451 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,800 Speaker 1: Strait Island and nations. We pay our respects to the 452 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 1: first peoples of these countries, both past and present.