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Speaker 1: Jum mission with Jones and Amanda.

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Speaker 2: Notice that TV stations are running election coverage from five

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Speaker 2: am this morning throughout the whole day for the US

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Speaker 2: presidential election. I would say there's going to be a

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Speaker 2: lot of people talking about their speculation of who's going

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Speaker 2: to win.

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Speaker 1: I think I'll be going home to watch it. There's

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Speaker 1: a journalist who I really admire. He's got a fantastic podcast.

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Speaker 1: The first one, actually podcast series was Russia if you're listening,

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Speaker 1: looking at the Russian influence in the last four years

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Speaker 1: in America. His latest one is America if you're listening,

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Speaker 1: looking at the impact of Trump. Absolutely terrifying. But he's

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Speaker 1: put out a thread as to when he thinks it's

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Speaker 1: time to look up from your normal day, and when

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Speaker 1: it's time to not care, and when we think we

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Speaker 1: might hear something, I'll read you through. I saw it

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Speaker 1: on Twitter the other night. You're ready. This is The

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Speaker 1: Journalist's name is Matt Bevan, by the way, and he

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Speaker 1: has said this all right. The number one question people

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Speaker 1: are asking me is when on Wednesday of things happening.

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Speaker 1: So here we are at ten am. The first state's close,

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Speaker 1: Indiana and Kentucky. He said, don't even look up from

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Speaker 1: your laptop. Eleven AM. That's our time this morning. Most

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Speaker 1: of Florida, everything but the bits of the Panhandle will close.

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Speaker 1: Georgia closes eleven am. Exit polls will be published. Ignore

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Speaker 1: them except if they indicate Biden is well ahead in Georgia.

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Speaker 1: Right in that case, Trump is in deep trouble. If

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Speaker 1: Biden wins Georgia, he will almost certainly win the election,

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Speaker 1: but Georgia will take ages days probably to count. However,

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Speaker 1: Florida learned in two thousand that they have to get

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Speaker 1: it together when it comes to vote counting, so they're

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Speaker 1: going to do it much faster. All of Florida will

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Speaker 1: close at midday our time. If we and we will

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Speaker 1: start to get an idea of what the go is,

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Speaker 1: we will reach a fork in the road. If Biden

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Speaker 1: wins Florida, game over for Trump. We will know the

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Speaker 1: likely election result mid afternoon. If Biden wins Florida, if

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Speaker 1: it's close in Florida, or Trump wins, continue reading this

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Speaker 1: is what he's said. Trump essentially can't win the election

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Speaker 1: without Florida. Biden has many ways of winning without Florida,

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Speaker 1: but it's going to take longer to count By two

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Speaker 1: pm our time, all other important states will have closed

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Speaker 1: and they will start counting. Trump is apparently planning to

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Speaker 1: declare victory if he's doing okay, he'll probably do this

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Speaker 1: around four pm our time, midnight in DC. So what

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Speaker 1: happens then? Trump's team have told Jonathan Swann, Australian journist

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Speaker 1: who's working in the States, that they'll declare victory if

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Speaker 1: they look ahead in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Io, Arizona,

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Speaker 1: and Georgia. Okay, they're saying that he'll do that. Even

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Speaker 1: where are we even sorry, even if he wins all

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Speaker 1: of these, he still has a long way to go,

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Speaker 1: So he could have a sixty five percent chance going

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Speaker 1: on of victory even if he wins all of those.

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Speaker 1: If he loses any not all, any of those, we're

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Speaker 1: back in. Biden's probably going to win territory. But say

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Speaker 1: Biden is ahead in all of these, and Biden is

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Speaker 1: ahead in most of the other battlegrounds, Colorado, blah blah

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Speaker 1: blah blah blah. This day's starting to get more likely.

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Speaker 1: It's going to come down to Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 2: Pennsylvania, Well, and.

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Speaker 1: That's when you put your party hats on and put

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Speaker 1: the wine back in the fridge because it's going to

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Speaker 1: take a while. Pennsylvania suck accounting votes. They take days,

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Speaker 1: maybe weeks. Trump is likely to appear ahead before postal

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Speaker 1: votes come in. He will claim he's already won the

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Speaker 1: state and now we're in a court case. Streets protest

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Speaker 1: Territory will know that by mid afternoon Wednesday, if we

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Speaker 1: get all the way to Pennsylvania being the key battleground,

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Speaker 1: which is not unlikely, I'll do a new thread. He said.

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Speaker 1: All of this is based on probability, etc. So he

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Speaker 1: said none of this takes into account wild cards including polling,

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Speaker 1: booth violence, infrastructure failure, dog doggy dodginess from the state governments,

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Speaker 1: and of course foreign interference. So all of these cut

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Speaker 1: wild cards only matter if it's relatively close. If Trump

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Speaker 1: will Biden show a clear lead on Wednesday, those things

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Speaker 1: are unlikely to matter much at all. So that's what

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Speaker 1: he's saying. And this threat is only if you've actually

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Speaker 1: got something else to be doing on election day, if

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Speaker 1: you've blocked out the day for it, put the TV

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Speaker 1: on a eleven watch all the way through. But if

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Speaker 1: you have to pick when to look and when it's important,

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Speaker 1: use this as your guy.

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Speaker 2: When does the luten and the shooting start, Well, I

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Speaker 2: think it's already started four years

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Speaker 1: Ago, sir, with Jonesy and Amanda