1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: We know the future of Australia's amphibious military capability. It 2 00:00:04,600 --> 00:00:07,920 Speaker 1: is in focus, that is, according to defense analyst doctor 3 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:11,560 Speaker 1: John Coyn. Now Doctor Coin says that developing the Army's 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 1: amphibious forces isn't just about landing ships and training, It's 5 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: about building the right logistics, infrastructure and community partnerships. Now, 6 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 1: doctor John con, the director of National Security Programs at 7 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 1: the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, joins me on the line. 8 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: Good morning, doctor. 9 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 2: Coin, Good morning Cody. 10 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: Great to have you on the show. Now, Doctor Coin, 11 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 1: I know that you penned this article and argue that 12 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 1: Darwin could become a key hub for Australia's amphibious capability. 13 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,840 Speaker 1: Talk me through what the situation is and what makes 14 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 1: us so strategically important right now. 15 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 2: As you always know, I'm always focused on two things, 16 00:00:55,200 --> 00:01:00,280 Speaker 2: national security and Northern Australia and building economically and socially 17 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 2: prosperous Northern Australia. I see there's a convergence of these 18 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 2: two issues. So right now Defense is looking at and 19 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 2: certainly Army has been doing and making this change is 20 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 2: to become the ability to project power into the Indo 21 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:17,959 Speaker 2: Pacific What that means is that the ability to move 22 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 2: by air and sea and land into the Indo Pacific. 23 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 2: Now to do that, Defense is in a process of 24 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 2: buying a whole range of new equipment, bigger ships and 25 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,760 Speaker 2: amphibious ships than before that'll be operated by army. Now 26 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:36,440 Speaker 2: they need to be home based somewhere. You can't operate 27 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 2: these things without a support network. And my argument is 28 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 2: is if you need them and you will have to 29 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 2: operate them, you want to have them as close to 30 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 2: where you need them and you want them to be 31 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 2: able to be supported as close and the best locations 32 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 2: for that are in Northern Australia. 33 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 1: What's the you know, like, what's the federal government sort 34 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 1: of saying in this space? Where are they thinking that 35 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: they're going to base these ships? What's the plan right now? 36 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 1: I suppose is what I'm asking. 37 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 2: Look, and I think this is part of the problem. 38 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 2: So you know, Defense is working app all and looking 39 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 2: at how to buy these capabilities bring them into service. 40 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:15,800 Speaker 2: And that's a lengthy process. But at the moment it 41 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 2: looks like what we'll see is some in Brisbane, some 42 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 2: in townsil some in Darwin. Now the question here is 43 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 2: is that you know the Northern Territory, Pemlin Darwin have 44 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 2: always since World War II understood national security and have 45 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 2: been seeing defense as part of the community. Now Defense 46 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 2: needs to lean in and parochially proactively engage here. So 47 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 2: they provide eight percent of the GDP of the Northern 48 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 2: Territory as it stands at the moment, So they need 49 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 2: to take a proactive economic role in partnership about how 50 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:51,119 Speaker 2: they're going to and where they're going to base these 51 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 2: new vessels. 52 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: Now, I know that you mentioned in the article that 53 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: you wrote the risk of repeating past planning mistakes like 54 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,359 Speaker 1: what havepen and in Townsville. You know that's a concern. 55 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: What lessons should defense take from previous experience do you think? 56 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 2: Look, I think first and foremost that local government and 57 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 2: local communities aren't a box ticking activity. That they're actively 58 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 2: part of capacity development of logistics supply chains and not 59 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 2: passive players. So they need to lean forward and be 60 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 2: part of planning discussions about what the future of the 61 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 2: Port of Darwin looks like, what the future of Darwin 62 00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 2: Harbor looks like, what they're actually going to do, what's 63 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 2: in the interests of the local community and local industry 64 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 2: and be active participants in. 65 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 1: That in terms of you know, the building of this capability. 66 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:48,920 Speaker 1: It's not just about the military hardware, but it's also 67 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: about those local partnerships, isn't it. I mean, how do 68 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 1: we sort of best engage or how does Defense make 69 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 1: sure that they best engage with with Northern Territory community 70 00:03:57,760 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 1: and industry to make this work. 71 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 2: Look, you know what, there's so many things we can 72 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 2: say here, but a really hardcore, firm commitment to maintaining 73 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 2: these vessels in Darwin and to local content. So what 74 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 2: we want to see is very firm agreements and commitments 75 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 2: to using local engineering companies as an example, so that 76 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:22,919 Speaker 2: we can actually create economic opportunities. And this is you know, 77 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 2: I'm sort of not been sitting partly because it's always 78 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 2: the wrong way to say this. What I'm trying to 79 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 2: do is make sure that if we're spending money on 80 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 2: defense because the national security environment says we have to, 81 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:37,279 Speaker 2: then let's make sure we get the best economic value 82 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:40,920 Speaker 2: in Northern Australia as well as the best national security outcomes. 83 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 2: And I see these are clearly aligned by having you know, 84 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 2: there's very historical reasons and lessons from this. So the 85 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:53,239 Speaker 2: reason we're able to push the North Koreans and Chinese 86 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 2: back during the Korean War. Is that we're able to 87 00:04:55,560 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 2: get soldiers, sailors and aviators and their equipment to the front, Lawe, 88 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 2: I'm quicker, and we're able to repair it quicker on 89 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 2: the Korean peninsula. And that is why Darwin is important 90 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 2: in the Indo Pacific. 91 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 1: John, there seems to have been, you know, quite a 92 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:12,600 Speaker 1: bit more discussion I suppose about Darwin's strategic importance and 93 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 1: Tinder as well over the last couple of weeks. I 94 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:18,679 Speaker 1: believe there was a full Corners report a little earlier 95 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 1: in the week, but even overnight this news sort of 96 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 1: coming through this morning that Australia's domestic spy chief warning 97 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: that there's a realistic possibility of a foreign government trying 98 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 1: to assassinate a dissident on Australian soil, saying at least 99 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:39,280 Speaker 1: three nations are willing and capable of carrying out such 100 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 1: an operation. I mean, I suppose a couple of different issues. Evin, 101 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 1: what do you make of those comments that have sort 102 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 1: of come through from you know, from Australia's domestic spy chief. 103 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:52,600 Speaker 1: First off, and I guess you and I have spoken 104 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 1: on so many occasions, you know about the Northern Territory 105 00:05:56,440 --> 00:06:00,360 Speaker 1: and our strategic importance, but are we act rate a 106 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: risk at the moment? Do you think that's why it's 107 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:05,599 Speaker 1: sort of so heavily highlighted right now. 108 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 2: Look, there's a consistency over the last four or five 109 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:13,480 Speaker 2: years in the language that's used here in Australia by government, 110 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 2: by intelligence agencies, by defense, and certainly that's seen repeatedly 111 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,160 Speaker 2: across the globe, which is we've entered this sort of 112 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 2: period of time where there's great strategic uncertainty. So you know, 113 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 2: I don't like the idea of people making predictions going 114 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 2: war in three years or what we do though, is 115 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 2: that across the board. And I'll use the words of 116 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:41,239 Speaker 2: a version of the words used by the Director General 117 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:44,919 Speaker 2: of ASIO. So all of the red lights flashing, so 118 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,360 Speaker 2: you know, it's not just about defense, it's also about 119 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:52,800 Speaker 2: counter terrorism. It's also about transnational serious organized crime. It's 120 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:57,799 Speaker 2: also about economic security. So a very very difficult time. 121 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:01,359 Speaker 2: I guess the thing here is people in Darwin and 122 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 2: the Northern Territory know this from historical perspectives, which is 123 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 2: this idea of targeting, So you know, there's something fundamentally 124 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 2: wrong if you start the discussion from if we stand 125 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 2: up to a country that's doing things not in our interest, 126 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 2: or if we form partnerships to make ourselves stronger, we'll 127 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 2: be punished for that, so we shouldn't do it. I'm 128 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 2: not sure that that's the right approach on this. I 129 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 2: think the issue here is is that you know, Northern 130 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:36,200 Speaker 2: Territory four thousand kilometers away from Canberra, it is obviously 131 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 2: closer to the Indo Pacific, and that it has an 132 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 2: important role to play here for Australia's national security as 133 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 2: well as its economic security. And that means that if 134 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 2: someone would want to do us hard, you know, be 135 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 2: they terrorists, be they people who want to undermine our 136 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 2: social cohesion, or be they economic coercion, then of course 137 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 2: Darwin doesn't have Northern Territory, Northern Australia doesn't have a 138 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 2: special exemption from that, and more than likely proximity means 139 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 2: as we saw during World War Two. And I'm not 140 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 2: saying I want to be really clear here for this 141 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 2: as I'm ever going to happen, but what I am 142 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 2: saying is is that it is front and center of 143 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 2: the mind of people living in Northern Australia. Yeah. 144 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 1: You know, something that always stands out for me, and 145 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 1: I may have said this to you before, is a 146 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:25,559 Speaker 1: couple of years ago I interviewed Brian Winspear. He's since 147 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 1: passed away, but he was a bombing of Darwin survivor 148 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 1: who was over one hundred years old. And the day 149 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 1: that I interviewed him, he came into the studio and 150 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 1: you know, I spoke to him about what it was 151 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 1: like being in Darwen at that time, and he said 152 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 1: that they just weren't prepared, you know, they were not 153 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:44,679 Speaker 1: ready for it. And as you've touched on, I'm not 154 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 1: saying it's going to happen again, but the last thing 155 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: you want is to be in a situation again where 156 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:50,439 Speaker 1: no one's ready for what's coming. 157 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 2: No look, And that's where you know, a lot of 158 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 2: the discussion and a lot of stuff I've been writing 159 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 2: about over the last decade on Northern Australia is as 160 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 2: much about national resilience, because I better if you and 161 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:05,199 Speaker 2: I had interviewed the survivors from Cyclone Tracy, which I 162 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:06,959 Speaker 2: have spent time with them, We've written I've written a 163 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 2: report on this with a colleague, and they would say 164 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 2: the same thing that they weren't prepared. Well. Now we're 165 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 2: in an environment where climate events are becoming more frequent 166 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 2: and more intense, where transnational series organized crime figures are 167 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 2: doing all manner of things across crime types as diverse 168 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 2: as child exploitation to illicit drugs, where terrorists are trying 169 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 2: to forward their causes globally, not just for Salafi Ghadism, 170 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:36,480 Speaker 2: but for a range of other motivations and ideologies, where 171 00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:40,199 Speaker 2: the nation states are competing, where they're using economic coercion. 172 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 2: So we do need to be prepared and be resilient. 173 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 2: And for territorians, you know, this is where infrastructure becomes important. 174 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 2: The question remains is how in the twenty first century 175 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 2: we still have roads in this sort of environment, roads 176 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 2: that cut off a couple of times a year, and 177 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 2: the supermarket's empty and people are worried and you know 178 00:09:57,840 --> 00:09:58,959 Speaker 2: those sorts of issues. 179 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, so true. Well, doctor John Coyne, the director of 180 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 1: National Security Programs at ASBY, I always appreciate your time. 181 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for having a chat with me this morning. 182 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:11,319 Speaker 1: Thank you