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Speaker 1: Good morning, and welcome to the Daily OS. Today is Friday,

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Speaker 1: the twentieth of August. We're doing the podcast a little

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Speaker 1: differently again today so that we can understand the crisis

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Speaker 1: unfolding in Afghanistan from a different angle. So today we're

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Speaker 1: speaking to Bruce Bolpi. Bruce is a senior fellow at

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Speaker 1: the United States Studies Center. He served on the staff

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Speaker 1: of the Democrats while in the US Hungress, and he's

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Speaker 1: also served in the staff of Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

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Speaker 1: He's an expert on all things at US politics, so

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Speaker 1: I thought i'd have a chat to him today about

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Speaker 1: how the crisis in Afghanistan will affect Joe Biden's presidency. Bruce,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for taking the time to join

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Speaker 1: me today. I just wanted to start off with whether

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Speaker 1: or not you think that the Biden administration saw this

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Speaker 1: coming or understood what would happen when US troops withdrew

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Speaker 1: from Afghanistan.

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Speaker 2: They saw at the end of the war in Afghanistan coming,

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Speaker 2: he planned for it. He yet agreed in principle with

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Speaker 2: what Trump had done, which was end the war and

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Speaker 2: set a date to withdraw. But the chaos and the

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Speaker 2: debacle has become a near catastrophe. That was a shock,

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Speaker 2: and the shock was the lack of planning and execution

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Speaker 2: on the withdrawal, and what we saw was a real

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Speaker 2: time intelligence failure. He would not have said in July,

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Speaker 2: no chance that they would overrun Afghanistan, no chance that

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Speaker 2: you would have people on helicopters or airplanes leaving the country.

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Speaker 2: But that happened, and so that meant that he was

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Speaker 2: misinformed as to what the state of play was. And

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Speaker 2: that's very serious and there's a human cost and a

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Speaker 2: political cost associated with that.

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Speaker 1: And when you talk about an intelligence failure, can you

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Speaker 1: go into that is that there was just nothing being

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Speaker 1: fed up the line that anticipated the Taliban would gain

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Speaker 1: this much power so quick or what was the intelligence failure?

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Speaker 2: They misread that the Taliban could advance so quickly through

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Speaker 2: the provincial capitals. That's like the regional capitals here in Australia.

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Speaker 2: They took Newcastle first and then at the airport and

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Speaker 2: to other things. So they misread the regional capital, and

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Speaker 2: they misread the situation side capital, and they misread the

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Speaker 2: strength of the army and that it would not fade away.

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Speaker 2: Biden made a very powerful point when he finds himself

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Speaker 2: faced with the president fleeing the country and the army

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Speaker 2: unwilling to fight. What is he supposed to do? And

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Speaker 2: that's where they were. But it was accelerated to it.

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Speaker 2: It was compressed to a very short period of time

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Speaker 2: that was very frightening and very disorienting.

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Speaker 1: Biden has spoken about this being an unwinnable war that

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Speaker 1: was going on for years and years and years. Do

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Speaker 1: you think had it been Trump who had withdrawn the troops,

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Speaker 1: would there have been a different outcome? Was this inevitable?

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Speaker 1: What do you think about how this is played out?

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Speaker 2: It would have been the same that the chaos that

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Speaker 2: normally occurs under Trump was transferred to Biden. That's uncharacteristic

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Speaker 2: of Biden, and he's going to pay a price for it.

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Speaker 2: But if you recall Trump had the troops coming out

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Speaker 2: earlier in May, Biden bought four more months and said

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Speaker 2: I can't do May. I can do the end of August,

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Speaker 2: and that's going to be our orderly withdrawal. It did

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Speaker 2: not work out that way, however, that being said, and

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Speaker 2: not aside from but there is an enormous human cost

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Speaker 2: on the people of afghan enormous human cost on the

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Speaker 2: girls and the women and what their lives are going

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Speaker 2: to be and people who are just not part of

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Speaker 2: the movement, and that's really awful. I was afraid over

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Speaker 2: the weekend of massacres and mass murders being committed by

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Speaker 2: the Taliban against the people of Afghanistan. So far that

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Speaker 2: has not occurred. So the loss of life given the

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Speaker 2: change of power that has occurred as minimal. I'm grateful

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Speaker 2: for it. But whether that last remains to be seen?

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Speaker 1: And do you've referred to the political cost that Biden

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Speaker 1: will wear with this decision. How much do you see

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Speaker 1: this sticking to his presidency? Is this going to be

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Speaker 1: I mean, at least for me, it feels like this

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Speaker 1: is a massive turning point. We in Australia have not

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Speaker 1: really heard much out of the Biden administration in terms

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Speaker 1: of things that are really cutting through globally. What happens

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Speaker 1: now to his presidency.

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Speaker 2: Well, the decision to end the war in Afghanistan and

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Speaker 2: get out of the endless wars in the Middle East

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Speaker 2: was very popular Poland shows seventy percent approval. I think

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Speaker 2: most Americans are those who listened to his speech said yes,

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Speaker 2: we don't like the outcome. It's unfortunate you didn't start it. Nevertheless,

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Speaker 2: we have to live with it, but we have priorities

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Speaker 2: at home.

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Speaker 1: Can I ask was it bipartisan support or the withdrawal?

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Speaker 2: Democrats supported, about half the Republicans also supported. There was

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Speaker 2: some Republican support, but not among Republicans in Congress and

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Speaker 2: the leadership team. They were where President George W. Bush

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Speaker 2: was at the start of the war and then seeing

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Speaker 2: it through. So the political class in Washington a heavy

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Speaker 2: partisan divide. But Biden in raw dollars, the war cost

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Speaker 2: a trillion dollars. That's the cost of his infrastructure program

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Speaker 2: to rebuild the country. He says the threat to the

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Speaker 2: United States from Afghanistan was can another attack on the

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Speaker 2: homeland be mounted from there? And he says, we can

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Speaker 2: handle it, But we were in a war that was

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Speaker 2: designed to rebuild Afghanistan into a democracy. That effort had failed.

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Speaker 2: So why persist in lives in dollars in effort when

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Speaker 2: you can handle the terrorist threat and turn your attention

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Speaker 2: to other things, the pandemic, global warming, rebuilding the country,

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Speaker 2: And that's where he is, and he believes ultimately if

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Speaker 2: he can get the rest of his program through that

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Speaker 2: is a.

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Speaker 1: Political winner for him, and will he be able to

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Speaker 1: get the rest of it through? I mean, I know

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Speaker 1: we have midterms next on the horizon. How does the

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Speaker 1: withdrawal play into what we can expect from the midterms.

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Speaker 2: When a president is weak or perceives to be weak,

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Speaker 2: that can weaken his political hand at home. And so

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Speaker 2: the tension level inside Washington has been raised, and that

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Speaker 2: makes it somewhat harder, but it also defines the stake

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Speaker 2: so much more clearly. And so he pending as we speak,

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Speaker 2: Rebuild American part the infrastructure bill, and then everything on

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Speaker 2: global warming, on education, on seniors, on children, and those

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Speaker 2: bills will be voted. The whole package is three point

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Speaker 2: five trillion dollars will be voted on within the next

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Speaker 2: two months. He needs the Democrats to stick together to

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Speaker 2: get it through. So this is no time for Democrats

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Speaker 2: to desert him. And that's going to be a test

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Speaker 2: ultimately of unity and then whether he can prevail. And

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Speaker 2: if he does prevail, I think you'll see a package

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Speaker 2: of domestic programs to take you to the election, which

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Speaker 2: would be on a par with Franklin Roosevelt meeting the

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Speaker 2: challenge of the Great depression in the nineteen thirties. In

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Speaker 2: other words, the whole banana is on the table, and

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Speaker 2: we're going to see whether it gets sliced up or

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Speaker 2: whether he appeals it and has a really nice cake.

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Speaker 1: Excellent analogy. I like that one a lot. I don't

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Speaker 1: realize that. I think I skipped ahead a bit. Can

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Speaker 1: you just explain what the midterms are and why they're important.

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Speaker 2: Yes, the president's elected every four years, but that term

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Speaker 2: of the House of Representatives is every two So the

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Speaker 2: parallels here. Every three years, the House of Representatives is

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Speaker 2: up as a whole, and then the Senate. A portion

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Speaker 2: of the Senate is up every three years too, so

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Speaker 2: it's the third of the Senate and all the House.

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Speaker 2: The history of midterm elections is that the party in

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Speaker 2: power in the White House generally loses seats in the

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Speaker 2: House of Representatives in the midterm elections. It's sort of

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Speaker 2: a correction mechanism. The margin by which the Democrats hold

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Speaker 2: the House today is four seats, and the history of

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Speaker 2: net loss of seats in the midterms is twenty six seats.

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Speaker 1: That is a lot.

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Speaker 2: That is a lot, and would say that the Republicans

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Speaker 2: are going to control the House. In the Senate, I think,

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Speaker 2: sitting here right now, I would say the Republicans have

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Speaker 2: an excellent chance of taking the House back, which is

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Speaker 2: why he wants to get as much done right now

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Speaker 2: as he can. In the Senate, I actually think the

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Speaker 2: makeup is more favorable. I think the Democrats could gain

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Speaker 2: a couple of seats.

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Speaker 1: And in case, our listeners aren't across US politics to this,

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Speaker 1: which is.

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Speaker 2: To their great mental health.

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Speaker 1: Exactly, they have had.

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Speaker 2: No listeners to this program.

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Speaker 1: Are normal, not like you and I. But can you

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Speaker 1: explain what the implications of a Republican run the House

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Speaker 1: would be on Joe Biden's presidency.

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Speaker 2: He won't be able to pass any major legislation that

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Speaker 2: reflect his priorities emergency situations. They're bipartisan things and so forth.

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Speaker 2: But it means that what he can do in Congress

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Speaker 2: is dead. But it also means he can veto anything

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Speaker 2: the Republicans pass. So that's why he wants to get

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Speaker 2: it done now, and so he can see out the

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Speaker 2: rest of his first term and make sure nothing is

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Speaker 2: taken away that he's been able to accomplish. The more

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Speaker 2: he can accomplish now, the more political capital he has,

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Speaker 2: Whether he keeps control of the house or not. And

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Speaker 2: that's why what's occurring right now is so important. And

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Speaker 2: that's why he didn't want life to be controlled by Afghanistan.

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Speaker 2: He wants it to be controlled by what he does

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Speaker 2: with Russia, what he does with China, what he does

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Speaker 2: with North Korea, what he does with Iran, and what

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Speaker 2: he does on global warming and what he does on

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Speaker 2: the pandemic. That's his agenda.

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Speaker 1: He won't be able to escape at least for the

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Speaker 1: immediate future. The implications of this withdrawal. What do you

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Speaker 1: think are his immediate next steps? What will happen now?

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Speaker 1: From a US perspective.

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Speaker 2: I think he wants to draw a lot. The worst

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Speaker 2: is over. Now, let's get everyone out that possibly can.

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Speaker 2: Let Afghanistan be keeping the closest eye on it to

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Speaker 2: make sure that nothing does reconstitute itself and regroup and

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Speaker 2: attack pose a threat to the world. And what we're

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Speaker 2: going to see next on the internet stages is the

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Speaker 2: US and China. That meeting has yet to occur. I

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Speaker 2: think it will occur within the next two months, and

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Speaker 2: that is really going to define the world we live

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Speaker 2: in for the next ten years. So that's a really

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Speaker 2: important step.

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Speaker 1: Can we expect the US to expand the humanitarian visa

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Speaker 1: intake or the number of refugees that they will include

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Speaker 1: per year after this event, or do you just see

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Speaker 1: the US going on as they were before. No.

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Speaker 2: I think first of all, there's strong pro immigration, pro humanitarian,

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Speaker 2: pro refugee policies among the Democrats. And secondly, just given

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Speaker 2: the legacy of Afghanistan and so many you stood with

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Speaker 2: the United States, I think there's no issue of wanting

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Speaker 2: to take care of those Afghans who were aligned with

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Speaker 2: US interest. So no, I think the gates will be open,

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Speaker 2: and they should be. It's a humanitarian issue and these

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Speaker 2: people should find a secure home.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a really good note to leave it on.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Bruce for your time.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Zara,