1
00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:05,720
Speaker 1: Already and this is the Daily This is the Daily OS. Oh,

2
00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:15,920
Speaker 1: now it makes sense. Good morning and welcome to the

3
00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:19,160
Speaker 1: Daily OS. It is Wednesday, the seventh of August. I'm billy,

4
00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:23,759
Speaker 1: I'm zara. The last few days have seen significant volatility

5
00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:27,920
Speaker 1: in global stock markets. Here in Australia. On Friday and Monday,

6
00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:30,720
Speaker 1: the stock market had its worst two days since the

7
00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:33,880
Speaker 1: onset of the pandemic. It all came after the US

8
00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,879
Speaker 1: posted higher than expected unemployment numbers, raising concerns that the

9
00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:40,920
Speaker 1: world's biggest economy is slowing and a recession is on

10
00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,080
Speaker 1: the horizon. If you've been seeing headlines about this and

11
00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:47,000
Speaker 1: trying to understand what has gone on, but it's all

12
00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:49,800
Speaker 1: seemed a bit like gibberish, well you have come to

13
00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,400
Speaker 1: the right place. In today's deep dive, I'll be speaking

14
00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:55,080
Speaker 1: to Greg Jericho, who is the chief economist at the

15
00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:59,080
Speaker 1: Australia Institute, to explain all of it to us. But first, Lara,

16
00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:04,120
Speaker 1: what is making headline today.

17
00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:07,600
Speaker 2: The Reserve Bank of Australia the RBA, has left the

18
00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:10,640
Speaker 2: cash rate on hold at four point three five percent.

19
00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:14,160
Speaker 2: The figure, which is often referred to as interest rates,

20
00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,920
Speaker 2: influences the cost of borrowing across the economy. The RBA

21
00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:20,600
Speaker 2: said it kept rates on hold for the sixth consecutive

22
00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:23,160
Speaker 2: month as part of its plan to return inflation to

23
00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:27,040
Speaker 2: within its two to three percent target. Inflation is currently

24
00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:30,520
Speaker 2: sitting at three point eight percent. Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers

25
00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:34,440
Speaker 2: welcomed the RBA's decision, saying it recognizes the progress being

26
00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:38,680
Speaker 2: made on inflation and also quote the very substantial global

27
00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:41,640
Speaker 2: economic uncertainty that we're seeing play out in the markets

28
00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:44,240
Speaker 2: around the world. We've got an explainer on that topic

29
00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:49,040
Speaker 2: coming in the Deep Dive, so just hold that thought.

30
00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,480
Speaker 1: The Australian Federal Police has seized the Brisbane home of

31
00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:55,760
Speaker 1: a married couple alleged to be a pair of Russian spies.

32
00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:58,560
Speaker 1: A forty year old woman who is a former Australian

33
00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:01,320
Speaker 1: Army private and her six two year old husband were

34
00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:05,480
Speaker 1: arrested on spying offenses last month. The Russian born Australian

35
00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:09,000
Speaker 1: citizens have been accused of accessing sensitive information about the

36
00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:12,720
Speaker 1: Australian Defense Force on behalf of Russian authorities. Police have

37
00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:17,160
Speaker 1: also sees their bank accounts, superannuation funds and other personal assets.

38
00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:20,280
Speaker 1: The couple are facing up to fifteen years behind bars.

39
00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,320
Speaker 2: The UK government has introduced a raft of new policing

40
00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:29,600
Speaker 2: measures as the country enters its seventh day of riots.

41
00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:33,800
Speaker 2: Newly appointed Prime Minister Kirstana said a standing army of

42
00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:37,240
Speaker 2: police will be deployed in an effort to tame violent crowds.

43
00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,919
Speaker 2: Far right riots erupted across the country following a mass

44
00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:43,880
Speaker 2: stabbing attack last month that left three girls dead and

45
00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:44,680
Speaker 2: others injured.

46
00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:50,280
Speaker 1: And today's good news, researchers are a step closer to

47
00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,680
Speaker 1: figuring out how the ancient Egyptians built the pyramids. A

48
00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:57,240
Speaker 1: team of engineers and geologists have uncovered evidence of a

49
00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:01,560
Speaker 1: complex hydraulic lift system in Egypt's oldest pyramid, thought to

50
00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:05,600
Speaker 1: have been built some four five hundred years ago. According

51
00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:09,200
Speaker 1: to findings in the scientific journal Plos, researchers have discovered

52
00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:12,120
Speaker 1: clues that a complex water system was used to power

53
00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:15,240
Speaker 1: an elevator inside the pyramid, which could have been used

54
00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:18,120
Speaker 1: to float heavy stones up through the middle of the structure.

55
00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:23,920
Speaker 2: So Billy, over the last couple of days, I have

56
00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:29,120
Speaker 2: read headline after headline about the state of the stock market,

57
00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:31,880
Speaker 2: and I must confess I'm not the most well versed

58
00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:33,760
Speaker 2: when it comes to the stock market. And we were

59
00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:36,440
Speaker 2: talking in the office yesterday about how no one's actually

60
00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:39,119
Speaker 2: explaining anything. They're just saying what is happening, but there's

61
00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:39,960
Speaker 2: no explanation.

62
00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:42,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think if there's any time for the Daily OS,

63
00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:44,680
Speaker 1: it's a story like this when it literally feels like

64
00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:48,160
Speaker 1: it's in a complete other language. But Zara, you and

65
00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,040
Speaker 1: I are not experts on the global stock market.

66
00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:54,080
Speaker 2: No, we accept our shortcomings and we head to the expert.

67
00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:56,640
Speaker 1: We tried, but yes, we thought that we should speak

68
00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:59,200
Speaker 1: to an economist, and so we went straight to the

69
00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,680
Speaker 1: chief economist at the Australian Institute, Greg Jericho, to break

70
00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:05,360
Speaker 1: down all of the headlines that we have been seeing.

71
00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:08,000
Speaker 1: I thought that he broke it down in a way

72
00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,800
Speaker 1: that I could understand. He was really effective. Here is

73
00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:13,680
Speaker 1: that chat, Greg Jericho, thank you so much for joining

74
00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:14,360
Speaker 1: the Daily OS.

75
00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:15,640
Speaker 3: No problem was Billy.

76
00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:20,520
Speaker 1: So we have seen global stock markets go down quite significantly.

77
00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:22,320
Speaker 1: How did this all start?

78
00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:26,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, it all started in America when their July unemployment

79
00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:29,479
Speaker 4: figures came out and the unemployment rate went from four

80
00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,240
Speaker 4: point one to four point three percent, and that kind

81
00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:35,560
Speaker 4: of just triggered off a massive amount of panic around

82
00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:39,520
Speaker 4: the world as everyone sort of looked at us and thought, olds,

83
00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:43,240
Speaker 4: something's going bad there, and everyone just really started panicking

84
00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:43,920
Speaker 4: very quickly.

85
00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:48,440
Speaker 1: And why is it that unemployment figures would trigger such

86
00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:50,000
Speaker 1: a worldwide reaction.

87
00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:53,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, it seems a bit surprising, But really what it

88
00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,840
Speaker 4: comes down to is a US economist called Claudius arm

89
00:04:57,279 --> 00:04:59,640
Speaker 4: she'd been looking at recessions and she was trying to

90
00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,719
Speaker 4: come up with a way of measuring recessional kind of

91
00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:06,080
Speaker 4: warning that economy is going to recession a bit quicker

92
00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:09,120
Speaker 4: than the traditional method. The traditional method you have to

93
00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:12,200
Speaker 4: look at GDP figures, which are the entire economy. You

94
00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:14,440
Speaker 4: have to wait for two quarters in a row, which

95
00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:18,520
Speaker 4: is six months, so in a sense traditionally, Kindos was saying, oh, yes,

96
00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:21,159
Speaker 4: an economy is in a recession and it started six

97
00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:23,440
Speaker 4: months ago. And she was like, well, that's a bit useless.

98
00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:26,040
Speaker 4: How about we look at unemployment rates and see if

99
00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:28,200
Speaker 4: we can work out there, and what she sort of

100
00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:30,680
Speaker 4: did a lot of good research and worked out that actually,

101
00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:34,440
Speaker 4: when the unemployment rises by half a percentage points, so

102
00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:36,799
Speaker 4: like about four point zero to four point five percent,

103
00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,560
Speaker 4: when it does that in twelve months, that means you're

104
00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:43,440
Speaker 4: basically in recession town. And the thing was where the

105
00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:46,760
Speaker 4: unemployment came out at four point three percent, everyone was going, oh,

106
00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,320
Speaker 4: wait on, that's got up by more than a half

107
00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:50,360
Speaker 4: a percentage point a year.

108
00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:53,200
Speaker 3: There was going America is in a recession. So so

109
00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,720
Speaker 3: that pretty much was what it was. It was just

110
00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:00,360
Speaker 3: this sense of everyone realizing, oh gosh, that's not good.

111
00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,839
Speaker 1: Do you think it was an overreaction at all?

112
00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:07,640
Speaker 4: Unfortunately, if you look at the history, the rise in

113
00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,839
Speaker 4: unemployment fits really well with recessions. And I think it's

114
00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:14,040
Speaker 4: a good method because, I mean, who cares about GDP

115
00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:16,040
Speaker 4: going up and down? All you care about is are

116
00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:18,000
Speaker 4: you able to get a job? Are you getting paid

117
00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:20,279
Speaker 4: well for your job? You're getting good out, So unemployment

118
00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,240
Speaker 4: is a good indicator. And I think it really does

119
00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:26,480
Speaker 4: suggest that the American economy, because it's had, like here

120
00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:30,880
Speaker 4: in Australia, high interest rates, is really starting to struggle mightily.

121
00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:34,280
Speaker 1: And can you just explain why what happens in the

122
00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:38,600
Speaker 1: US economy impacts the rest of the world so significantly.

123
00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:42,560
Speaker 4: Basically, it's because the American economy is the biggest economy

124
00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:45,480
Speaker 4: in the world. It's still much bigger than China, and

125
00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:48,920
Speaker 4: it's massively bigger than anyone else. And so you know,

126
00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:52,839
Speaker 4: the old adage was when America sneezes, everyone catches a cold.

127
00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:56,200
Speaker 4: Now it's not quite as bad, but certainly it's a case,

128
00:06:56,279 --> 00:07:01,320
Speaker 4: especially in places like Japan, where when America struggles, that

129
00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:03,640
Speaker 4: means they're going to have a real tough time because

130
00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:07,279
Speaker 4: America imports a lot of stuff from a lot of countries,

131
00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:09,920
Speaker 4: and if people are losing work there, well, they're not

132
00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:12,080
Speaker 4: going to buy as much stuff, and that means they're

133
00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:14,240
Speaker 4: not buying as much from other countries.

134
00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:18,120
Speaker 1: Right, And hearing you talk, it all sounds quite scary

135
00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:21,400
Speaker 1: and quite bad for someone listening who is not too

136
00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:24,840
Speaker 1: familiar with global stock markets. How much of this is

137
00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:27,840
Speaker 1: just part of, you know, the normal fluctuation of a

138
00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:31,400
Speaker 1: share market or is this really completely out of the ordinary.

139
00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, this was a big one, especially in Japan, and

140
00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:37,800
Speaker 4: because it was just so widespread. But we've seen today

141
00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:40,320
Speaker 4: already in Australia there's a bit of a recovery. You know,

142
00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:43,360
Speaker 4: it's not like we're having a Wall Street crash. But

143
00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,240
Speaker 4: I think more it's a case of there's been a

144
00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:50,040
Speaker 4: lot of markets and investors going along with a sort

145
00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:53,080
Speaker 4: of almost a rosy eyed view that, oh, it seems

146
00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:55,440
Speaker 4: like we're going to get rid of inflation, but not

147
00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:58,120
Speaker 4: go into recession like we normally do, like we did

148
00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:01,240
Speaker 4: in the ninety nineties, like we did in eighties, and

149
00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:03,640
Speaker 4: they're all thinking, oh, good times ahead, and then this

150
00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:05,640
Speaker 4: was a bit of a wake up call that actually

151
00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:07,720
Speaker 4: there's probably going to be a bit of slowing in

152
00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:11,080
Speaker 4: the economy, purely because we've had interest rates high that

153
00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:14,000
Speaker 4: stopped everyone being able to go out and spend. So

154
00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:15,280
Speaker 4: I think it was more of a bit of a

155
00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:18,120
Speaker 4: wake up call, and hopefully that's all it is, but

156
00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:21,760
Speaker 4: it certainly does I think bear warning for what might

157
00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:23,720
Speaker 4: be ahead in the next six to twelve months.

158
00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:27,280
Speaker 1: So let's turn to Australia. Now, what has happened in

159
00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:28,680
Speaker 1: the Australian shair market.

160
00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:32,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, the Australians share market also took a bumper when

161
00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:35,200
Speaker 4: this news came out, and it often happens you follow

162
00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:38,120
Speaker 4: what's going on in America, in Japan and Hong Kong,

163
00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:40,199
Speaker 4: they sort of see what's going on there, and there

164
00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,840
Speaker 4: is a bit of a herd mentality amongst brokers.

165
00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:45,160
Speaker 3: But it has sort of recovered.

166
00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:48,599
Speaker 4: In this sense that certainly Australia is not as exposed

167
00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:52,880
Speaker 4: as perhaps Japan is, but we certainly know that there

168
00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:58,199
Speaker 4: are concerns within Australian investors and Australian economists about Australia's

169
00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,040
Speaker 4: own economy and whether we're going to go into recession

170
00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,920
Speaker 4: because and this is something I've been tracking on our

171
00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:07,920
Speaker 4: version of unemployment rate, we're also sort of tracking towards

172
00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,960
Speaker 4: going up by that half a percentage point in a year,

173
00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:13,720
Speaker 4: and if that happens, yeah, we're kind of looking like

174
00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:15,800
Speaker 4: being in a recession. So you know, there is a

175
00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:17,920
Speaker 4: fair bit of concern still even in Australia.

176
00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:20,520
Speaker 1: I want to look at recession in a second, but

177
00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:22,720
Speaker 1: first I just want to look at interest rates, which

178
00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,040
Speaker 1: was a big topic of conversation yesterday with the IBA's

179
00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:30,360
Speaker 1: announcement that it will keep the cash rate on hold. Firstly,

180
00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:33,600
Speaker 1: can you just explain what is the relationship between cash

181
00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,840
Speaker 1: rates and the stock market? How do they link?

182
00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:40,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the cash rate is in a sense

183
00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:43,720
Speaker 4: the reserve banks setting the interest rate that it charges

184
00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:46,440
Speaker 4: banks to borrow from them, which they then charge a

185
00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:48,600
Speaker 4: bit more to us so we can take out loans.

186
00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,560
Speaker 4: So it's a good guide of what's happening with interest rates.

187
00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:53,160
Speaker 4: And you think, if you're an investor, you can do

188
00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:55,560
Speaker 4: two things. You can invest in the stock market and

189
00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,080
Speaker 4: hopefully the stocks will go up and you'll get you'll

190
00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:01,120
Speaker 4: get a good return. Or you can in bonds, which

191
00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:03,640
Speaker 4: is in a sense taking out loans, and if the

192
00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:06,000
Speaker 4: interest rate is going up, well, then it's a good

193
00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,640
Speaker 4: time to invest in bonds, not a good time to

194
00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:11,480
Speaker 4: invest in the stock market. So the Reserve Bank keeping

195
00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:14,160
Speaker 4: interest rates on hold. Everyone is kind of the view

196
00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:16,600
Speaker 4: the next move will be a cup rather than a rise.

197
00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:20,080
Speaker 4: And it seems like all our concerns over the past

198
00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:22,240
Speaker 4: sort of six months of we're going to have higher

199
00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:24,920
Speaker 4: interest rates seem to be on the way, and purely

200
00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:27,560
Speaker 4: because the Reserve Bank, like everyone else, is looking around

201
00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:29,440
Speaker 4: the world and going geez, things are getting a bit

202
00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:33,160
Speaker 4: dicey over to America and dicey japaired. These are big

203
00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:36,000
Speaker 4: export markets for us. Let's not try and kill our

204
00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:38,600
Speaker 4: economy if we've got bad things coming our way.

205
00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:43,280
Speaker 1: Two more questions. Firstly, for people listening who don't invest

206
00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:45,480
Speaker 1: and who don't own a home, so the cash rate

207
00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,600
Speaker 1: or the interest rates don't directly impact them, how could

208
00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:50,880
Speaker 1: what has happened affect them?

209
00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:52,600
Speaker 3: Oh look, it's not directly.

210
00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:56,560
Speaker 4: If you're working, you've got money in superannuation and superannuation

211
00:10:56,720 --> 00:10:59,480
Speaker 4: funds invest in the stock market, but you really don't

212
00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:02,520
Speaker 4: have to worry, especially if you're young. You're nowhere near retiring,

213
00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:05,360
Speaker 4: and stock markets go up and down and in thirty

214
00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:08,640
Speaker 4: years time, you won't even remember what happened this week.

215
00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:11,240
Speaker 4: But it does suggest if they're keeping them steady, it

216
00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:14,280
Speaker 4: means they're not trying to slow the economy more. And

217
00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:16,760
Speaker 4: that's a good thing because it means that they are

218
00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:20,040
Speaker 4: actually worried about unemployment rising, and so they were already

219
00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:23,160
Speaker 4: thinking about, okay, what can we do to make sure

220
00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:26,199
Speaker 4: unemployment doesn't go up, you don't lose your job, and

221
00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:28,840
Speaker 4: the economy keeps sort of growing nicely.

222
00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:32,840
Speaker 1: Now, lastly, you've mentioned recession a number of times, which

223
00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:35,440
Speaker 1: we know is when there are two negative quarters of

224
00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:39,560
Speaker 1: GDP in your expert opinion, how likely do you think

225
00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:41,239
Speaker 1: a recession is in Australia?

226
00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:45,200
Speaker 4: Oh, look, I mean GDP has been not growing very well.

227
00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:48,040
Speaker 4: I mean the last GDP growth in a quarter was

228
00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,880
Speaker 4: just zero point one percent. I mean that's basically an

229
00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:54,640
Speaker 4: error away from going backwards. The risks are certainly there.

230
00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,319
Speaker 4: It's always a bit tricky with Australia because our exports

231
00:11:57,360 --> 00:11:59,280
Speaker 4: in one quarter can give us a boost and then

232
00:11:59,320 --> 00:12:01,920
Speaker 4: the next quarter don't. That's why I like looking at

233
00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:05,120
Speaker 4: the unemployment rate as well, and that has been moving up,

234
00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:08,520
Speaker 4: so hopefully we won't see that. The risks is very

235
00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:11,640
Speaker 4: much there. If the Reserve Bank had increased interest rates,

236
00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:15,160
Speaker 4: the risk would have, I think, become a huge warning

237
00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,800
Speaker 4: bell and sirens would be going off everywhere. I think

238
00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:21,520
Speaker 4: they're very mindful of it and hopefully we can avoid it.

239
00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:25,280
Speaker 4: But again, if America goes into recession, if Japan struggles,

240
00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:28,000
Speaker 4: then you're going to see struggles in China. It's very

241
00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:30,880
Speaker 4: difficult to miss that. But I wouldn't be predicting we're

242
00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,160
Speaker 4: going to go in a recession, but certainly the risks

243
00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:34,560
Speaker 4: are pretty high.

244
00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:36,959
Speaker 1: We'll be keeping a close eyewn it. Greg Jericho, thank

245
00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:38,280
Speaker 1: you so much for joining us.

246
00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:40,200
Speaker 3: Noah's Billy really good to chat.

247
00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:43,760
Speaker 2: This feels like one of those times that our slogan,

248
00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:47,520
Speaker 2: oh now it makes sense really does apply. After listening

249
00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:51,280
Speaker 2: to that conversation, I now truly understand what is happening

250
00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:54,040
Speaker 2: with the stock market. If you feel the same way,

251
00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:57,240
Speaker 2: please press follow on whatever platform you are listening or

252
00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:01,040
Speaker 2: watching this podcast on. Every follow helps us grow and

253
00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:02,840
Speaker 2: we'll be back again tomorrow see ya.

254
00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:08,400
Speaker 1: My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda

255
00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:13,400
Speaker 1: Bungelung Calcuttin woman from Gadighl Country. The Daily oz acknowledges

256
00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:15,640
Speaker 1: that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the

257
00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:19,280
Speaker 1: Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and torrest

258
00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,160
Speaker 1: Rate island and nations. We pay our respects to the

259
00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:24,960
Speaker 1: first peoples of these countries, both past and present.