1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: On Monday, the Chief Finister, Michael Gunner obviously delivered his 2 00:00:03,840 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: year ahead speech committing to deliver more permanent jobs and 3 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:10,280 Speaker 1: housing in the Northern Territory. 4 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 2: I know that probably most. 5 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:14,640 Speaker 1: Of you didn't hear that speech, so we'll just play 6 00:00:14,680 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 1: a little bit for you right now. 7 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,759 Speaker 3: We need more homes in Katherine In, Darwin, norm boy In, 8 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 3: Tenant and Palmerston. Our commissioners have reported to me they 9 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 3: forecast more than thirty billion dollars of capital investment over 10 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 3: five years studying this year. That's from the private sector, gas, 11 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:35,160 Speaker 3: major infrastructure projects and defense. We must meet future growth 12 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 3: by acting now. We are working to bring forward residential 13 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 3: land releases in Holts and Kowandi, Kilgaroth, Analyis, Katherine East 14 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 3: and Pico Road and Tenant. We can only end the 15 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:49,879 Speaker 3: five Fox era if developers commit to building homes and 16 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 3: banks back them in. We will keep pushing out the land. 17 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 3: We're going to market twenty twenty four of Holts and Kwandi. 18 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 3: We're bringing this forward from twenty twenty six. Big things 19 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 3: are happening. Get your skates on. 20 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: So that was the Chief Minister earlier in the week 21 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 1: delivering that year ahead speech, and I am joined on 22 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 1: the line right now by the Urban Development Institute of 23 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:13,320 Speaker 1: Australia's Northern Territory president hermanas Low. 24 00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 2: Good morning to you, Hermanus. 25 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:17,119 Speaker 4: Good morning Katie. How are you? 26 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 1: Yeah? 27 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 2: Really well, lovely to have you on the show. 28 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 1: Is there land well outside of of Lee Point and 29 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 1: other areas at this point where some of these this 30 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 1: land can actually be released? 31 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 4: Look the what's the stifferiness of talking about at Houlston Kulundi, 32 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 4: which is an area currently undergoing the planning sort of 33 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:42,800 Speaker 4: preparing the planning, the area plan for that. Yeah, and 34 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 4: they prepare an infrastructure plan for that as well. So 35 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 4: so from UDA perspective, were excited that it's the departments 36 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 4: and the chiffiness is looking at making sure the infrastructure plan, 37 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 4: making sure that the planning is there to support future development. 38 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 4: But the worst thing happens we're running out of land. Yes, 39 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 4: that's said. They saw a lot of land in the 40 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:03,639 Speaker 4: hands of the velopers. Obviously you've got all of the COOLi, 41 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 4: you've got Northwest, you've got lead points, you've got the 42 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 4: whole bunch of development happening in Boltera Road and Berima, 43 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 4: and there's other developments out there. As well, like the 44 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 4: hypoax stall in the cards, there's Sarah West is still 45 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 4: in the cards, So there's still quite a few parts 46 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 4: of the land available. But what we don't know as 47 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 4: the UDIA is what the plan for Halton Pool on is. 48 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 4: So what is the turn off rates, what is the 49 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:30,639 Speaker 4: partner working on in terms of economic reform alpinose areas 50 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 4: in terms of upsake. So that's the one thing that 51 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 4: we have UDO is missing, and developers specifically is it 52 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 4: don't have the information in terms of demand forecast. But 53 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 4: as soon as we have that we can make investment decisions. 54 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, because I was going to say, realistically, if you 55 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 1: don't actually you know, looking at the demand forecast, I 56 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 1: would suspect that you'd really have to kind of have 57 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:54,520 Speaker 1: an idea on that before you do release that additional land. 58 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:58,800 Speaker 4: Yeah. Look, and as a hard place to forecast demand 59 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 4: because it is so fluctuating down south, we've got you know, large, 60 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 4: very large uptake of land and very large number of transactions. 61 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 4: It's easier to for us because you've got you've got 62 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 4: a good base of which you can forcus up here. 63 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 4: It's hard if we don't have the necessary number of 64 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 4: sailed number of settlements, number of recisions in each of 65 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 4: the each of the price points that were trying to achieve. 66 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 4: So I think that's another very important distinction as well 67 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 4: as while there's quite a lot of land in the 68 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 4: hands developers, it's always important to understand that there's different 69 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 4: price points at which land are being sold for. So 70 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 4: are we providing affordable land? Are we providing the right 71 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 4: type of land? Are we providing the land and the 72 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 4: right location. That's always important to understand as well. So look, yeah, look, 73 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 4: we're we're excited about what the achievements is doing. I 74 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 4: think what we really want to see is what is 75 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 4: infrastructure plans are going to look like, what the area 76 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 4: plans for Lticle one is going to look like? 77 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 1: Because has any of that been done yet at this point, 78 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: because I guess he made it sound on Monday we're 79 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 1: all guns blazing, it's going to be happening in the 80 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 1: next two years. But has any of that background work 81 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 1: happened yet? 82 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 4: Look, it's our understanding that's commenced. The extent of it 83 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 4: and the completion of the dates of those are not 84 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 4: entirely across. But look two years away. Yeah, it's a push, 85 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 4: it's a lot of work to be done before then. 86 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 4: But also I mean, you know, let's look at it statistically. 87 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 4: If if Halton Kandy is released in the market for 88 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 4: developers to especially interest and then to tend on, but 89 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 4: at the time of the developers selected Embard, the time 90 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 4: to contracts signed, the development agreement to signed, then developers 91 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 4: will have to engage a design team as well. As 92 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 4: it goes through. Planning still has to go get a contractor. 93 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:45,720 Speaker 4: But time the first dawn key is going to go, 94 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 4: it's going to be twenty six seven, you know, so 95 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 4: you've got you've got a lot of planning to do 96 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 4: before the first home is built in Hulton Quantity. Yeah right, 97 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:56,800 Speaker 4: I'm excited to see that the Chief Minister and the 98 00:04:56,960 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 4: partners are actually doing that work upfront. Was there something 99 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 4: that we you've been advocating force make sure that your plans, 100 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 4: your area plans are supported by infratructure plans, to make 101 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 4: sure there's sufficient overlaid. Yeah, for the developers can understand 102 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 4: what you are planning in future and we can have 103 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 4: our investments for portfolio ready so that we can support 104 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 4: that development. 105 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:15,599 Speaker 1: Yeah. 106 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 2: So right, so even you know he's saying by twenty 107 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 2: twenty four. 108 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: But the reality of it is that you know, by 109 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 1: the time you start turning those houses over, it is 110 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 1: going to take a bit longer than that. 111 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:30,040 Speaker 4: Yeah. Absolutely, By the time the time you've got your 112 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 4: contract with everyone on board, it takes two years before 113 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 4: you know, from ye to actually having key indorsed. Two years. 114 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 4: Please you know now her Man. 115 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 1: As you mentioned, zicol Lee, North Crest, a few other 116 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 1: areas where there is you know, there is actually land 117 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:46,800 Speaker 1: there ready to be developed. What's holding things up? 118 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 4: Well, a couple of things right now. So last year, 119 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 4: with the federal grants and the local grants that was available, 120 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 4: there was a big surge of land transaction plans, land sales. 121 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 4: We experienced tween twenty and twenty twenty one, the strongest 122 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 4: sales and nanty that we've had for years, stronger even 123 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 4: and just as the as we came off impacts similar 124 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:14,280 Speaker 4: to back then. But since the middle of June last year, 125 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 4: when though all those grants ended, the markets really slowed down. 126 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:22,040 Speaker 4: So our land transactions that's really slowed down. So as 127 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 4: a developer, you know, we forecast because bear in mind, 128 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 4: so by the time we make an investment decision, it 129 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 4: takes us twelve months to get the product on market 130 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 4: to physical title property, and in that twelve month the 131 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,720 Speaker 4: market can chip. So what are we forecasting in terms 132 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:41,280 Speaker 4: of an accurate uptake rate for twelve months from now? 133 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 4: And I guess that's where developers are struggling a little 134 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:46,480 Speaker 4: bit the moment as well. We're not entirely seeing that 135 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:49,600 Speaker 4: big demand of purchases coming through. Yes we know that 136 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 4: they're Yes, we're seeing the inquiries, but we're not seeing 137 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 4: land going to contract. And that's probably what a lot 138 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:58,840 Speaker 4: of developers are has been done now. We are a 139 00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:01,280 Speaker 4: lot of those developers are working with government and are 140 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:04,919 Speaker 4: working underground leases and they've got certain development time flames. 141 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:07,719 Speaker 4: That said, they are pushing ahead as far as account 142 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 4: I know, so Colea's Aspire for instance, we are pushing 143 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 4: really fast there to try and get land as much 144 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 4: as possible. The problem is supply of material for the 145 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 4: availability resources, getting workers on site is the most difficult 146 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 4: thing at the moment to achieve. So we had a 147 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 4: month last year where we had to shut the sight 148 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 4: because our subcontractors were refusing to get vaccinated. 149 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the thing. 150 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 4: All these issues contribute. 151 00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 2: So in taking all of that into account. 152 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 1: I mean, is there a need for additional housing or 153 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 1: should we be waiting for more of a population increase 154 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:45,559 Speaker 1: before we sort of saturate the market or release more land. 155 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 4: What I well, what I will say is that I'm 156 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 4: sure that the Department and the Minister's Office has got 157 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 4: that forecast in terms of demand, that that population growth 158 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 4: demand that's coming. I think we as an industry is 159 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 4: stot lacking that information, and then we'd be really excited 160 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 4: to see what the forecast is in terms of population 161 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 4: and that would really give us some substance in terms 162 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 4: of how we progress development. But I don't think we 163 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 4: should ever sit stall and not do anything. So even 164 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 4: if the even if the departments are just getting hold 165 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 4: in Kuwania ready for release, that's enough. That's good because 166 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 4: it means that the infrastructure plans means that the statutory 167 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 4: of planning requirements, they are thought of, they are enacted 168 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 4: so that by the time we start seeing a spike 169 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 4: in demand, developers can get in the developers concept, it 170 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 4: can start developing. But what we don't want to do 171 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,839 Speaker 4: is we don't want to We don't want to take 172 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:43,199 Speaker 4: away from the current developers at end dow On we 173 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 4: don't want to see a situation what's doctor into the 174 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:48,959 Speaker 4: hyperduch we're here. See Pitt was heavily involved, made good 175 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 4: good development grounds and through there and then Securly was 176 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 4: released and they were unable to sell those properties and 177 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:58,679 Speaker 4: effectively they they they've now left time. Yeah right, I 178 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 4: don't want to be called massatuation again. So it's a 179 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:03,559 Speaker 4: fine balance. It's a very fine balance to walk. And 180 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:06,960 Speaker 4: as I said, demand forecasting and the inty is very 181 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 4: hard because we have a fluctuating market, a very fluctuating market. 182 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 2: Well, her Manus, I really appreciate your time this morning. 183 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:13,559 Speaker 2: I think it. 184 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 1: You know, it gives us that bit of perspective and 185 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 1: a bit of a better understanding when we talk about 186 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 1: that land release, like that forecasting that needs to go 187 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:23,719 Speaker 1: into it as well before you can really sort of 188 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 1: you know, get the rubber on the on the road 189 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: for want of a better word. 190 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:30,319 Speaker 4: Yeah. Absolutely, Yeah, Well, Katie, thank you for having me. 191 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 2: I appreciate it, really appreciate it. Thanks so much, her Manus.