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Speaker 1: Good morning, and welcome to the Daily Ohs. We are

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Speaker 1: finally at Friday. It's the eleventh of March, and I'm

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Speaker 1: joined by Tom Crowley to take you through the day's

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Speaker 1: news and to specifically deep dive into economic sanctions and

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Speaker 1: big corporations pulling out of Russia. We'll get to that shortly,

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Speaker 1: but Tom quickly take us through the news of the day.

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Speaker 2: Yesterday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a thirty eight billion

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Speaker 2: dollar plan to boost the Australian Defense Force. It's the

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Speaker 2: biggest military expansion in forty years, in a plan that

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Speaker 2: we'll see uniformed personnel increase to eighty by twenty forty,

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Speaker 2: making it the largest Australian defense force since the Vietnam War.

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Speaker 2: In a speech yesterday, Labor leader Anthony Albanesi also pledged

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Speaker 2: to increase defense spending significantly, with a focus on cybersecurity,

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Speaker 2: and he criticized the government's approach to procurement of submarines.

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Speaker 1: The International Monetary Fund the IMF has approved one point

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Speaker 1: four billion dollars in emergency financing for Ukraine to assist

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Speaker 1: with the economic impacts of Russia's invasion. The IMF predicts

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Speaker 1: Ukraine will face a deep procession this year, and earlier

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Speaker 1: in the week, the World Bank also allocated over seven

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Speaker 1: hundred million dollars in an assistance package for Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: US President Joe Biden has signed an executive order instructing

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Speaker 2: state agencies to research a potential digital US dollar backed

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Speaker 2: by its central bank. The currency would be known as

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Speaker 2: the US Central Bank Digital Currency or CBDC.

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Speaker 1: Finally, some Friday good news, a baby from the US

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Speaker 1: has successfully received a world first combined heart and thymus

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Speaker 1: tissue transplant. Doctor Joseph Churek from Duke University Hospital said

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Speaker 1: of the procedure, this has the potential to change the

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Speaker 1: face of solid organ transplantation in the future. For today's

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Speaker 1: Deep Dive, I am joined by Tom Crowley, political journalist

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Speaker 1: at the Daily OS. He's waiving but you can't see

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Speaker 1: him to talk about what different economic sanctions, whether that

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Speaker 1: be country led sanctions or independent corporations withdrawing their operations

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Speaker 1: from the country, has done to Russia's standing in an

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Speaker 1: economic sense. So Tom, I think a good place to

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Speaker 1: start is with the US sanctions that were announced earlier

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Speaker 1: this week. Can you take us through it?

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Speaker 2: Yes? I can, so thank you. Sarah It's great to

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Speaker 2: be here as always, and I've been on the show

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Speaker 2: a couple of times now to talk about sanctions, so

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to go back and go through all

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Speaker 2: of them. But for those who haven't heard any of

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Speaker 2: those episodes, we've seen a whole series over the last

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Speaker 2: week of kind of ramping up of sanctions from a

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Speaker 2: range of Ukraine's allies and sort of if you like,

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Speaker 2: tightening the screws on Russia in an economic sense, and

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Speaker 2: we've talked a bit on the show about how they're

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Speaker 2: starting to get pretty significant. Well, there was another big development,

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Speaker 2: as you alluded to in that question from the US,

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Speaker 2: who have decided to suspend all imports of Russian oil, gas,

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Speaker 2: and coal, and the UK has done the same for

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Speaker 2: oil and they're considering doing the same for gas. So

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Speaker 2: it's not quite the same big coalition of countries that

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Speaker 2: we've seen do this previously. We're not seeing any European

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Speaker 2: countries follow suit at this point.

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Speaker 1: Is that significant though, because does the US rely heavily

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Speaker 1: on Russian oil and gas or is it more that

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Speaker 1: those other countries would make a real dent in Russia's economy.

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, that's exactly right. So at the moment, it

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Speaker 2: is just the US and the UK doing this. They're

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Speaker 2: not heavily reliant on Russian oil, gas and colon as

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Speaker 2: you said, they're the ones who are the countries in Europe,

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Speaker 2: they're the ones that haven't moved yet. And it's not surprising,

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Speaker 2: you know, a few country is kind of highly reliant

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Speaker 2: on Russia to get basically all of its oil. I

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Speaker 2: suppose you can kind of understand in a way why

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Speaker 2: a country like Germany would find it difficult to just

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Speaker 2: overnight flick the switch and stop buying all of that oil.

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Speaker 2: And I think that the US understands this as well.

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Speaker 2: So Joe Biden said he recognized that a lot of

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Speaker 2: the Western allies wouldn't be in a position to do this.

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Speaker 2: But in his words, even though you know America's imports

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Speaker 2: of these things from Russia relatively small, it's all part

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Speaker 2: of ramping up the pressure and another blow to Putin's

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Speaker 2: war machine. And he's suggesting that this is kind of

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Speaker 2: a significant step further and that they're willing to kind

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Speaker 2: of keep going further and further and keep tightening those screws.

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Speaker 2: So it may not be a huge headline, but it's

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Speaker 2: just another step in that direction of increasing the economic

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Speaker 2: pain on Russia.

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Speaker 1: Would you say that, given that the US isn't heavily reliant,

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Speaker 1: that it is more of a symbolic move, or that

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Speaker 1: there is a tangible economic effect on Russia with this announcement.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a question of the sum total effect

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Speaker 2: of all of these sanctions. So, you know, will this

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Speaker 2: individual announcement from the US about oil, gas, and coal,

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Speaker 2: you know, mark a turning point in the war? No,

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Speaker 2: of course not. But will the sum total of the

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Speaker 2: things that the US has done make a difference? Yes,

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Speaker 2: I think they will. And the subtitle of the things

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Speaker 2: that the West has done, yes, I think that they will.

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Speaker 2: And I think that even it's you know, I mean

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Speaker 2: markets in the way that international investors make their decisions

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Speaker 2: about Russia and where to put their money in Russia,

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Speaker 2: and the way that the global economy and the Russian

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Speaker 2: economy will respond. These things are in part governed by

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Speaker 2: the expectations that are set. And so when the US

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Speaker 2: president is sort of saying, look, you know, oil and

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Speaker 2: gas and coal was sort of off the table before,

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Speaker 2: but now we're putting them on the table, and just

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Speaker 2: this sort of sign of you know, how far will

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Speaker 2: they go, how far will they keep ratcheting the pressure up?

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Speaker 2: The more that that starts to affect you know, the

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Speaker 2: value of Russian money, the strength of the Russian economy,

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Speaker 2: and fueling that kind of Russian economic crisis that we're

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Speaker 2: starting to see unfold now. And so, you know, as

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Speaker 2: far as your question goes, will this individual thing make

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Speaker 2: a whole lot of difference? Maybe not, But I think

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Speaker 2: we are pretty clearly getting to the point now where

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Speaker 2: most expert analysts looking at the Russian economy are saying,

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Speaker 2: you know, this is going to get really bad, and

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Speaker 2: there's very little the Russian government can do about it,

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Speaker 2: and it's going to be a serious amount of economic

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Speaker 2: pain for ordinary Russians, for Russian companies, for wealthy Russians

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Speaker 2: all across the country. There'll be a lot of quite

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Speaker 2: significant economic consequence for Putin's invasion.

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Speaker 1: And that economic consequence is not just the result of

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Speaker 1: decisions made on a political level, but also in the

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Speaker 1: private sector. So what have we seen in terms of

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Speaker 1: corporations with drawing from Russian operations.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so there's been a lot of pressure on company

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Speaker 2: that operate in Russia, particularly kind of multinational companies and

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Speaker 2: Western based countries have come under a lot of pressure

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Speaker 2: to pull out of Russia. A lot of them did

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Speaker 2: it really early. So Netflix and Apple are a couple

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Speaker 2: of examples that came to mind there as sort of

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Speaker 2: early movers. And it got to the point where some

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Speaker 2: of the companies that were left, some of the last

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Speaker 2: ones left standing, were really coming under pretty significant pressure.

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Speaker 2: So earlier in the week we saw campaigns to boycott

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Speaker 2: McDonald's and Coca Cola, Starbucks and Shell and a couple

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Speaker 2: of other major companies. I think Nesle and Sony, the

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Speaker 2: list goes on were some of the last ones who

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Speaker 2: were sort of left in the country and still coming

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Speaker 2: and ring about this decision. But over the last couple

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Speaker 2: of days we've seen a little bit of a cascade

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Speaker 2: of a lot of those companies pulling out their business.

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Speaker 2: They do that in various ways. So McDonald's, for example,

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Speaker 2: made a point of saying, look, we're going to shut

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Speaker 2: McDonald's restaurants and stop operating in Russia, but we're interested

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Speaker 2: in the kind of economic security of all the people

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Speaker 2: we employ in the country, so we're going to keep paying.

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Speaker 2: You know, the ordinary Russians who were employed at McDonald's

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Speaker 2: in in Russia, you know, So there are a few

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Speaker 2: shades of gray there in the way that those companies

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Speaker 2: are responding. But again, you know, every one of those

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Speaker 2: major companies that decides to shut off its business, it

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Speaker 2: just sort of ratchets up that cost a little bit more.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to what the economic consequences as a whole are.

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Speaker 1: But what do you see the impact of these corporations

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Speaker 1: with drawing looking like for ordinary Russians who now are

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Speaker 1: caught up in this war.

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Speaker 2: I think that's an interesting question. So I think it

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Speaker 2: will become very very clear to pretty much any person

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Speaker 2: in Russia over the next couple of weeks, if it's

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Speaker 2: not already that something is wrong. This invasion has happened,

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Speaker 2: and something at home is going very very bad. Of course,

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Speaker 2: there are demonstrations and there are people getting arrested on

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Speaker 2: the street, But in an economic sense as well, we've

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Speaker 2: seen these pictures of people queuing up outside ATMs already,

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Speaker 2: we've seen a lot of reports of people leaving Russia,

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Speaker 2: fleeing the country. Now we're going to be seeing, you know,

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Speaker 2: McDonald's will be shut in a bunch of other you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of Western companies will be shutting up shop in Russia.

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Speaker 2: That's the kind of thing that even in a country

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Speaker 2: where there's a lot of ship online and where opposing

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Speaker 2: views are not always aired, that's the kind of thing

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Speaker 2: you notice. I think one of the key questions, and

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Speaker 2: one thing that it's difficult to tell from outside Russia,

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Speaker 2: is who ordinary Russians will choose to blame for that.

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Speaker 2: Will they believe the line that the Russian government and

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Speaker 2: of Vladimir Putin are putting out that this is kind of,

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Speaker 2: you know, evil behavior from the West and there was

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Speaker 2: an illegitimate response to a legitimate Russian action, and you know,

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Speaker 2: Russia's was just responding to aggression in Ukraine and the

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Speaker 2: West is trying to bully them into submission. Will that

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Speaker 2: line be something that the Russian public buy or will

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Speaker 2: they see this invasion, you know, for what it is,

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Speaker 2: as an invasion on the sovereign territory of a neighbor,

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Speaker 2: and will they blame Putin himself for that? And then

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Speaker 2: the follow up question, if the Russian people do start

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Speaker 2: to blame Putin for the economic consequences, is that something

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Speaker 2: that matters to him? Is there any sort of democratic

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Speaker 2: accountability built into what is very much not a democratic system,

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Speaker 2: and will that start to affect his decision making calculus.

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Speaker 2: I think you'd be a fool to try and predict

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Speaker 2: those kinds of things. But certainly the greater the costs get,

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Speaker 2: the more likely that something will give.

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Speaker 1: So drawing out, do we have any figures about what

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Speaker 1: Russia's economy is currently looking like? Because we saw interest

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Speaker 1: rates saw last week, but are we seeing any sort

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Speaker 1: of tangible representation of what the current financial or economic

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Speaker 1: circumstance is in Russia at the moment.

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Speaker 2: So it's a good question that some aspects of an

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Speaker 2: economic crisis take a little while to see, and certainly

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Speaker 2: in terms of things like say unemployment, which if we

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Speaker 2: had a recession in Australia we would look at unemployment.

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Speaker 2: Now we don't have the Russian government saying yes, unemployment

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Speaker 2: is very high, take a look at these numbers. So

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Speaker 2: in that sense it's a little bit more difficult. One

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Speaker 2: of the things that we can look at is the

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Speaker 2: kind of international financial markets and how they're responding to Russia,

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Speaker 2: and so for example, the value of Russian money, the

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Speaker 2: ruble that we talked on the podcast a week or

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Speaker 2: two ago about how the ruble had crashed. Well, that

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Speaker 2: has remained the same. It's gotten lower and lower, and

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Speaker 2: it's sort of still at a bit of a low point.

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Speaker 2: And we've seen it flow through into a few things

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Speaker 2: like free example, Russian mortgage rates which have gone up

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Speaker 2: very very highly over the last couple of weeks, and

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Speaker 2: a few other kind of signs of that sort of trouble.

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Speaker 2: So we don't as such have heaps of visibility necessarily

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Speaker 2: about the ins and outs of the Russian economy as

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Speaker 2: far as you know, unemployment and business closures and that

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Speaker 2: kind of thing, but we can see some signs certainly

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Speaker 2: that this is starting to bite.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Tom, So finally I just want to wrap up

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Speaker 1: and kind of zoom out to understand whether these economic

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Speaker 1: sanctions and the moves that various governments are making is

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Speaker 1: pointing us in the direction of further military action from

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Speaker 1: Western nations, Like are we any closer to understanding if

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Speaker 1: NATO aligned countries would intervene militarily or whether economic sanctions

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Speaker 1: are the extent to which these countries will intervene in

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Speaker 1: this conflict?

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Speaker 2: Another very good question, another question that it's difficult to answer,

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Speaker 2: I think still at this stage, you know, I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's been going on for two weeks now, it's been

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Speaker 2: getting more and more horrible. But I don't think that

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Speaker 2: you could really point to anything that any Western leader

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Speaker 2: has said that suggests that they are about to cross

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Speaker 2: the line into using their own troops to enter this conflict.

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Speaker 2: That's a pretty hard line that they've been drawing all

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Speaker 2: the way along, and you're hearing a lot of you know,

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Speaker 2: the Secretary General of NATO and a lot of people

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Speaker 2: from the US are saying, you know, that's that would

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Speaker 2: be World War three. We can't do that. And so

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Speaker 2: the big debate, and something that we've covered TDA over

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Speaker 2: the last few days is this question of Ukraine asking

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Speaker 2: for a no fly zone, which is a bit of

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Speaker 2: a misleading term because essentially a no fly zone is

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Speaker 2: you commit to shoot down any plane that enters the

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Speaker 2: airspace that you've declared a no fly zone. So it's

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Speaker 2: sort of like a bit of a soft form of

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Speaker 2: military intervention. That's something Ukraine's asked for, and pretty consistently

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Speaker 2: NATO and the US and all the allies have said,

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Speaker 2: you know, no, that's not something we're going to consider.

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Speaker 2: I think Poland being a neighbor that there's been a

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Speaker 2: little bit more talk about kind of, you know, whether

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Speaker 2: Poland might might get involved in some way, but certainly

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Speaker 2: in terms of the bulk of the NATO response in

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Speaker 2: the US response, No, at this stage, I don't see

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Speaker 2: any suggestion that they are about to inter militarily in Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: They'll hope that the economic warfare and the other ways

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Speaker 2: they have of supplying and arming the Ukrainian military will

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Speaker 2: help to continue a fight for long enough the pressure

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Speaker 2: becomes too much on Putin.

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Speaker 1: It's certainly something we are keeping a close eye on,

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Speaker 1: and if you have any questions around this conflict. For

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Speaker 1: many it's the first time that we are seeing concepts

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Speaker 1: like economic sanctions and the like being played out on

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Speaker 1: a global scale. So DM US with any of the

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Speaker 1: questions or clarifications that you have on this, will be

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Speaker 1: sure to get back to you as soon as possible.

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Speaker 1: Head over to our Instagram at the Daily OS it's

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Speaker 1: where over three hundred thousand Ozzies get their news every day.

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Speaker 1: We'd love to have you over there, and thanks for

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Speaker 1: joining us today.