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Speaker 1: Already and this is the Daily This is the Daily OS.

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Speaker 2: Oh, now it makes sense.

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Speaker 3: Good morning and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Tuesday,

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Speaker 3: the eighteenth of February.

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Speaker 1: I'm Zara, I'm Billy.

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Speaker 3: We are well and truly getting close to election season,

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Speaker 3: with the next federal election to be held before May

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Speaker 3: seventeen this year. Over the past few days, there's been

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Speaker 3: a sweep of new polling released, with all three polls

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Speaker 3: pointing to a possible labor loss. In today's podcast, we're

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Speaker 3: going to explain the latest on the election and what

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Speaker 3: the new polling could tell us about Australia's next government.

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Speaker 2: All right, Zara, So before we get into the polling,

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Speaker 2: I first want to look at when the election.

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Speaker 1: Actually is because the golden question.

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Speaker 2: We are starting to hear more and more in the

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Speaker 2: news cycle about the election. So for those who are

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Speaker 2: a bit confused, but when this election is same, what

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Speaker 2: can you tell us?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: So the problem is that at the moment we're in

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Speaker 3: a bit of no man's land. So the thing is

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Speaker 3: that it's very clear there is an election coming both side.

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Speaker 1: There has to be. There has to be. Well, you've

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Speaker 1: gotten to.

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Speaker 3: My point before there both has to be and it

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Speaker 3: feels like we're in an unofficial election season.

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Speaker 1: So as a quick refresher, now the Billy's ruined this.

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Speaker 3: Podcast, Australian election dates aren't set at regular intervals, so

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Speaker 3: when it comes to the US, you know every time

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Speaker 3: when there's going to be an election. In Australia, it's

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Speaker 3: actually the Prime minister's job to call an election. Now

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Speaker 3: this is done by him or her visiting the Governor General,

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Speaker 3: which is the King's representative, and the Governor General then

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Speaker 3: issues ritz which is when the election becomes official. There

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Speaker 3: are parameters though, that the Prime Minister needs to operate in.

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Speaker 3: So the Constitution and the Australian Electoral Act both specify

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Speaker 3: the last possible date.

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Speaker 1: For an election.

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Speaker 3: So for this election cycle, the election can be held

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Speaker 3: no later than the seventeenth of May, and that's almost.

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Speaker 1: Exactly three years after the last election.

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Speaker 3: The other small things that have to happen is that

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Speaker 3: it has to be held on a Saturday, and that

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Speaker 3: there has to be thirty three days between calling an

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Speaker 3: election and the election actually being held. Lots of mathematics

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Speaker 3: there all to say it has to happen before the

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Speaker 3: seventeenth of May, and it could actually happen as soon

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Speaker 3: as this week. You know, the Prime Minister could on

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Speaker 3: Sunday call an election, which would mean in thirty three

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Speaker 3: days time there would be an election. But there is

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Speaker 3: a bit for him to juggle in this scenario. There's

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Speaker 3: a wa state election, there's some expected interest rate carts,

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Speaker 3: there's school holidays, and there's a budget. So the Prime

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Speaker 3: Minister needs to basically work all around that and figure

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Speaker 3: out the best timing for when an election should happen

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Speaker 3: in you know, cynically.

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Speaker 1: Or just realistically to help Labour's chance of winning.

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Speaker 2: A very big call for him to make. So we

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Speaker 2: know that one hundred percent needs to happen before May seventeen,

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Speaker 2: but which Saturday before then is still unknown. Yeah, we're

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Speaker 2: hoping it won't be April twelve so that I can

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Speaker 2: allegedly run by half.

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Speaker 3: I was going to say, not for any official reason,

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Speaker 3: but Billy is meant to be running a marathon. So

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Speaker 3: Prime Minister, if I'm Prime Minister, if you're listening, please

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Speaker 3: not that say.

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Speaker 2: But that hasn't stopped both parties from starting their unofficial

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Speaker 2: election campaigns. What can you tell us about what they're

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Speaker 2: starting to tell us about what they would do if

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Speaker 2: either were elected.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so as soon as the summer holidays, I guess

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Speaker 3: were over, both Labor and the Coalition marine full electioneering mode,

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Speaker 3: even though as we said, no election has been called yet.

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Speaker 1: So last week was a sitting week.

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Speaker 3: Which is when both houses of Parliament are basically in session,

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Speaker 3: and that gives the government a chance to introduce and

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Speaker 3: pass legislation, and that's what the Labor government did. They

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Speaker 3: used this as an opportunity to really push through some

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Speaker 3: of their landmark legislation. So we saw, for example, this

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Speaker 3: childcare subsidy that the government had announced a little while

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Speaker 3: ago actually passed through Parliament and it'll come into a

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Speaker 3: fe next year. And the government were also able to

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Speaker 3: pass electoral donation reforms, which they had had like on

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Speaker 3: the back burner for a really really long time, but

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Speaker 3: managed to pass through in that last sitting week. On

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Speaker 3: the other hand, the opposition spent the last week also

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Speaker 3: talking about some of the big issues that they'll be

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Speaker 3: taking into the election. There was a lot about anti semitism,

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Speaker 3: there was a lot about breaking up insurance companies. That's

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Speaker 3: continued into this week. I heard the Opposition leader talking

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Speaker 3: about it yesterday and also more again about the economy,

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Speaker 3: about household recession and prices of groceries and things like that.

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Speaker 3: So those are kind of the two big things that

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Speaker 3: the government and opposition have been focusing on.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so on the policy front, both major parties are

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Speaker 2: really gearing up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: But the reason we're talking about it today is because

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Speaker 2: over the weekend there was new polling that came out.

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Speaker 2: It was so, what can you tell us about that?

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Speaker 3: Well, i'll give you along and a short answer. So

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Speaker 3: short answer is that the polling doesn't look good for

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Speaker 3: Prime Minister Anthony Alpinsi. But the long answer is a

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Speaker 3: bit more nuanced than that. And the long answer is

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Speaker 3: that it doesn't look good for thy Albanesi. But equally

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Speaker 3: it doesn't look like Peter Dudden and the coalition could

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Speaker 3: reach a majority if the election were called today. Now,

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Speaker 3: there's a polling company called Yugov and they published this

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Speaker 3: seat by seat breakdown and that was kind of the

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Speaker 3: big centerpiece that was released over the weekend. And what

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Speaker 3: we found out is that that poll shows the coalition

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Speaker 3: is on track to win approximately seventy three seats at

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Speaker 3: the next election, up from its current tally of fifty

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Speaker 3: five Meanwhile, that same poll showed that Labor could win

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Speaker 3: around sixty six seats, and that's down from seventy eight seats.

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Speaker 3: So therefore, if these figures were to be replicated on

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Speaker 3: polling day, so on the day of the election, if

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Speaker 3: all of this polling was to be one hundred percent

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Speaker 3: accurate and that was what was going to unfold, coalition

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Speaker 3: leader Peter Dudden would be in a stronger position than

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Speaker 3: Anthony Albanesi to form a minority government, which would mean

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Speaker 3: a hung parliament. So alongside this uvgov polling, there was

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Speaker 3: also a news poll poll was published yesterday that also

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Speaker 3: put the Liberal Party ahead on a two party preferred basis,

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Speaker 3: with the Libs polling at around fifty one percent and

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Speaker 3: Labor at around forty nine percent. Just to give you

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Speaker 3: some contexts to the peaks and troughs of where we've

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Speaker 3: been and I guess where we're going. In September of

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, at its peak, Labor was polling at

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Speaker 3: around fifty seven percent, which is almost ten points higher

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Speaker 3: than they were in the poll published yesterday.

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Speaker 2: So you can pretty safely say that their popularity, the

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Speaker 2: Labor Party's popularity has seen decrease.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely a minute, it's ambiguous.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, okay, And just before you mentioned hung parliament,

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Speaker 2: do you want to just explain what actually that is,

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Speaker 2: because it's been a while since we've had one in Australia.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, And I think it's going to be spoken

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Speaker 3: about and mentioned a lot through this election campaign, especially

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Speaker 3: if this polling maintains. So at this election, there's going

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Speaker 3: to be one hundred and fifty seats up for grabs

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Speaker 3: in the House of Representatives. That's one less seat than

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Speaker 3: the last election because there's been a bitter a redistribution there.

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Speaker 1: That's not all we're focusing on today.

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Speaker 3: So if there's one hundred and fifty seats up for grabs,

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Speaker 3: in order to win majority government, a party needs to

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Speaker 3: win seventy six seats. That's the golden number they need

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Speaker 3: to get to. If they don't get to that number,

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Speaker 3: that's when you see minority government or a hung parliament,

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Speaker 3: and that's when one of the major parties needs to

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Speaker 3: negotiate to form that minority government by winning enough support

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Speaker 3: from either the independents, so those teals that we've seen

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Speaker 3: in the past, or minor parties like the Greens or

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Speaker 3: Center Alliance to basically make up the gap to that

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Speaker 3: magic seventy six. It doesn't mean that, for example, the

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Speaker 3: Teals and the Coalition would formerly join forces. There wouldn't

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Speaker 3: be a new party name for the three of them

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Speaker 3: or anything like that. It would just mean that they

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Speaker 3: would agree to guarantee confidence and supply. That just means

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Speaker 3: that they would keep the government in power and they'd

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Speaker 3: vote to pass the budget so that money could be allocated. Essentially,

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Speaker 3: they would just be ensuring that the government could do

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Speaker 3: its job, but not necessarily voting with them on every

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Speaker 3: policy at all in exchange for the support. Hypothetically, if

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Speaker 3: this were to happen, minor parties in independence could impose

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Speaker 3: some conditions, so they'd want support for certain policies or

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Speaker 3: certain ideas that they pushed in parliament. And so the reason,

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Speaker 3: as I mentioned before, that we're talking about this today

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Speaker 3: is because that UGO poll puts a hung parliament at

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Speaker 3: a seventy eight percent probability.

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Speaker 1: That's extremely high, that is very high.

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Speaker 3: Next to that, it puts a coalition majority at about

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Speaker 3: nineteen percent probability and a Labor majority at three percent.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, based on those numbers, we could be looking

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Speaker 3: most likely at a hung parliament in the next session

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Speaker 3: of parliament.

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Speaker 2: And when was the last time Australia went to an

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Speaker 2: election and did elect a minority government. I think it

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Speaker 2: was when Julia Gillard.

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Speaker 3: It was Juliagular, correct, and she had to form minority

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Speaker 3: government with the Greens and with certain independents who were

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Speaker 3: in Parliament at that time.

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Speaker 2: But that's not like we've said, that's not a certain outcome.

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Speaker 2: That's just what polling is suggesting.

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Speaker 3: Yes, And Harry in our office likes to remind us

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Speaker 3: on an almost daily basis that poles cannot predict the

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Speaker 3: outcome of an election, as he likes to say. Instead,

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Speaker 3: they just capture a snapshot of the voter's mood. If

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Speaker 3: anyone in this office is listening, they will be familiar

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Speaker 3: with that. And it is worth touching on because the

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Speaker 3: polls were famously wrong in twenty nineteen when they predicted

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Speaker 3: Labor would win the election.

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Speaker 2: Yes, my first sorry, I just put my hand off

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Speaker 2: the top because my favorite fun fact is that sports

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Speaker 2: Bet paid out the election results two days early, thinking

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Speaker 2: that Labor would win based on the polls, and then

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Speaker 2: they way wrong and they were wrong, and it meant

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Speaker 2: that everyone who predicted Labor got their money, but then

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Speaker 2: also everyone who predicted the coalition also got their money.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it was crazy. I did look at sports Bet

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Speaker 3: the other day. It also does have the coalition ahead

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Speaker 3: for this election. But again I think just saying that

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Speaker 3: is to say that poles can be wrong. It's been

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Speaker 3: wrong in the US a number of times. It's been

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Speaker 3: wrong in a number of jurisdictions. But here in Australia

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Speaker 3: the last time around they were pretty much on the nose.

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Speaker 3: So it'll be interesting to see how they perform this time.

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Speaker 2: And does the pollingd tell us what the biggest issues

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Speaker 2: are that Australians will be voting on this election.

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Speaker 3: Well, we did have someone in the team speak to

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Speaker 3: Paul Smith from YouGov and he said that the main

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Speaker 3: voting issues center around the cost of living crisis, specifically

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Speaker 3: when it comes to housing, grocery prices and wages, which

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Speaker 3: I don't think will surprise anyone. We've heard this time

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Speaker 3: and time again. He said specifically about the government. People

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Speaker 3: are not angry at the government, but they're just disappointed

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Speaker 3: and that they're looking for big economic change. He said,

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Speaker 3: whether it's about their wages being able to afford a

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Speaker 3: house being able to go to a doctor that bulk bills.

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Speaker 3: They want to see those big changes. And so just

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Speaker 3: hearing that and knowing what we do about the electorate,

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Speaker 3: it is very clear that this election is shaping up

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Speaker 3: to be one that will be fought and potentially lost

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Speaker 3: on matters pertaining to the economy.

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Speaker 2: And it's a particularly pertinent time to be talking about

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Speaker 2: the economy because today there is a Bank of Australia

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Speaker 2: is making its latest decision on the cash rate, which

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Speaker 2: we commonly refer to them making a decision about interest

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Speaker 2: rates because it directly impacts people who are borrowing money

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Speaker 2: from banks. It's widely expected that they will cut interest rates,

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Speaker 2: but we will have to wait and see it.

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Speaker 3: And if they do, yeah, if they do, it'll be

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Speaker 3: the first time in four years.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Crazy. So at two point thirty pm today we are

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Speaker 2: expecting news on that and that will no doubt playing

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Speaker 2: to campaigns on both sides as it unfolds.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So we'll be.

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Speaker 2: Keeping a close eye on that and we'll keep you

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Speaker 2: updated on what the result is in this afternoon's headlines.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much for listening to this episode of

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Speaker 2: The Daily Ods. If you like what you hear and

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Speaker 2: you want to help the Daily Ods grow, If you

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Speaker 2: could click follow on Spotify or Apple, it really helps

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Speaker 2: us climb up those charts and helps new people find us.

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Speaker 2: And as always, if you are feeling extra generous, if

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Speaker 2: you can leave us a comment on Apple it also

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Speaker 2: really helps. Thank you so much and we'll be back

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Speaker 2: in your ears this afternoon with your headlines. My name

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Speaker 2: is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda Bunjelung Kalkatin

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Speaker 2: woman from Gadighl Country. The Daily oz acknowledges that this

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Speaker 2: podcast is recorded on the lands of the Gadighl people

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Speaker 2: and pays respect to.

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Speaker 1: All Aboriginal and Torres s right island and nations.

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Speaker 2: We pay our respects to the first peoples of these countries,

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Speaker 2: both past and present,