1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,279 Speaker 1: Look, if you've been keeping an eye on international news, 2 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:06,160 Speaker 1: we know that Donald Trump was given a royal welcome 3 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: by the King of the Netherlands as he arrived at 4 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:10,840 Speaker 1: the NATO summit in the Hague. 5 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 2: Now he left. 6 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: Feeling like the king maker is what's being reported. Basically, 7 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 1: memor nations agreed to lift their defense spending to five 8 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:23,079 Speaker 1: percent GDP over ten years, and mister Trump was quick 9 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: to take credit, describing it as a big win for 10 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 1: the United States. Now he's been calling for more spending 11 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: and had made threats about the future alliance if it 12 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 1: wasn't agreed upon. Now they said, you did it, sir, 13 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: You did it, sir. Well, I don't know if I 14 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:40,160 Speaker 1: did it, but I think I did, mister Trump said. Now, 15 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 1: then it's sort of got a bit weirder where he 16 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 1: was then called daddy by one of the other leaders. 17 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: So it was an interesting situation. But nonetheless, we are 18 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 1: indeed going to see we certainly for those countries that 19 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: increase in GDP when it cut spending, so five percent 20 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 1: of GDP over ten years. But look, I think it's 21 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 1: safe to say the situation with Israel and Iran, with 22 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:08,119 Speaker 1: the conflict, continues to dominate news headlines around the world. 23 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: We know that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjaminitnya, who had 24 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 1: seed the war against Iran, bought the country's nuclear program 25 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 1: to ruin. Now, it's difficult to know what's going to 26 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 1: happen next, but at the heart of that concern was 27 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 1: indeed Iran's le capabilities, and we know a Middle East 28 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: policy expert has stressed that it remains to be seen 29 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: how much damage has been done to Iran's nuclear program. 30 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:36,400 Speaker 1: And joining me on the line right now is Deacon 31 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: University professor in Global Islamic politics, Greg Barton. 32 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 2: Good morning to you. 33 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:46,680 Speaker 3: Greg, Good morning correctly with You're. 34 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 2: Lovely to speak to you this morning. 35 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for your time now, Greg, it's certainly 36 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: an interesting situation. It's quite a worrying situation. But we 37 00:01:56,600 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 1: know that the US President has indeed seen over the 38 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 1: last few days that in terms of the nuclear sites, 39 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 1: that that you know, what was undertaken by the US 40 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: had a major impact. 41 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 2: Well, that's exactly what the US President said. 42 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 1: Greg, I mean, is it are we actually really able 43 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 1: to tell just how big an impact it's had. 44 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:24,639 Speaker 3: No, we can't tell. I mean, you would really need 45 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,080 Speaker 3: to have people go in on the ground and possibly 46 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:30,959 Speaker 3: use drones or other technology of access underground cabins and 47 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 3: see what actually happened there. Israel has traded the Iranian 48 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:40,079 Speaker 3: defense establishment to a remarkable degree, so it's possible that 49 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 3: their intelligence sources may pick things up if it hasn't 50 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:46,800 Speaker 3: been frank with us on the evidence they have. So 51 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 3: it's really hard even if they if they claim they've 52 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 3: got agents telling them things, you can't sort of cross 53 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:56,080 Speaker 3: verify that Donald Trump was announcing the complete obligation of 54 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:58,920 Speaker 3: the fore those sites, even if the planes were flying 55 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 3: back in the mid of the so you know, there 56 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 3: was most satellite inmenttry at that stage because it was dark. 57 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 3: Now that we've had good satellite imagery, we see a 58 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 3: dozen fairly precise and exquisitely expensive like we're talking ten 59 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 3: to twenty million dollars per hole, a dozen holes in 60 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 3: the in the mountaintop and floor. Though what's at the 61 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 3: bottom of those holes and what damage had done when 62 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 3: the massive ordinates penetrators detonated down those holes We don't know, 63 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 3: I mean, were caused by by gravity, kinetic force, maths, 64 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 3: and pilosity as they drove into the mountain. That they're 65 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 3: designed to. But whether they get big enough so that 66 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 3: when they exploded they called damage to the cabinet, whether 67 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 3: they you know, simply pulled that energy back up the hole, 68 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 3: we don't know. 69 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, and this is a difficult part, right because we're 70 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 1: going to wind up no matter what with certainly with 71 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 1: America and Israel saying that it was you know that it. 72 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 2: Was a success and it's it's had a huge impact. 73 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:58,040 Speaker 1: But then you have got you know, Iran saying that 74 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 1: you know that it wasn't success that the US is claiming. 75 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 3: Well to be pay to America. Even in this guy 76 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 3: situation where you know, the president has been dis stated 77 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 3: that mate was kind of a dangerous manchild shows you 78 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 3: sort of the respect that the apprehension that the world 79 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 3: leaders have for him. And the Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, 80 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 3: is somebody who is the most unpopular Secretary of Defense 81 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 3: ever and might be the most unqualified and is just 82 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 3: sort of sypophantic affording over the president. We're not going 83 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 3: to get true from those sources. But despite all the 84 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 3: damage done to the Department of Defense, we are hearing 85 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 3: independent agencies within the Department of Defense doing the battle 86 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:42,040 Speaker 3: damny assessments, especially they can and saying that they're not sure. 87 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 3: So even in the American establishment, I mean the professionals, 88 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 3: not the politicians, we're hearing it's questioned a doubt. 89 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,840 Speaker 1: I mean, how important is it in terms of what 90 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 1: has happened and the fact that you know, I know 91 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 1: that the cease fire is you know, a precarious one. 92 00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:01,720 Speaker 1: But how important you know, has that been in terms 93 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:04,880 Speaker 1: of trying to you know, trying to damage that nuclear 94 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:06,679 Speaker 1: program for the rest of the world. 95 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 3: Well, I think the few things we can say one 96 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:15,480 Speaker 3: is that what Trump did it was illegal, legal according 97 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 3: to America. He didn't consult Congress, and it was really 98 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 3: according to international law. But that's another story. But it 99 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 3: was extremely risky, and for those who said it was 100 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 3: worth taking in the risk, you know, the risk was 101 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:29,480 Speaker 3: premised on the idea that this would be one and 102 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 3: done thing that would end for at least many many 103 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 3: years RAN's a nuclear weapons program. That doesn't seem to 104 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 3: be the case whatsoever. On the other hand, even though 105 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 3: this was a very risky moves so far, the damage 106 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 3: politically in terms of instability isn't really as bad as 107 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 3: it could have been. And possibly it might still become 108 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 3: So I think this should be glad that we have 109 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 3: a ceasefire, that it looks like Iran is sort of 110 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:55,840 Speaker 3: running out of steam. Israel can plain victory. Met Young 111 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:57,719 Speaker 3: who would like to go to a stat poll and 112 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 3: he can sort of plausibly claiming victory, and Trump conflained victory. 113 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 3: So given those three sets of legos a chance to 114 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:06,839 Speaker 3: plain victory as well front and maybe the piece might hold. 115 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 3: So that's not binny means as bad as it could be. 116 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 3: But what we also know is that we can't be 117 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 3: said about physical damage done by the massive audiance penetrators 118 00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 3: in the Florida Mountain. That we have satellite imagery of 119 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 3: trucks lined up there the week prior, and we know 120 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:27,040 Speaker 3: that we're most concerned about four hundred kilograms of highly 121 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 3: enriched geranium in the form of a compound a heck 122 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 3: of fluorod, which is so vulnuable that a bit of 123 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 3: a room temperature it turns to gas. Pack it in 124 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 3: pressure vessels, but they're not very large. So four hundred 125 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:47,760 Speaker 3: kilograms of this material you could take away in a 126 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 3: single truck, the convoy trucks they may have been taking 127 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 3: out the center future's machine, that's speed the further process 128 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 3: that compound, in which case it may be that Iran's 129 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:00,600 Speaker 3: got everything that needs to around its program and really 130 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:03,719 Speaker 3: lost nothing. And that means that the story is a 131 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 3: long way from being over. And you'd have to say 132 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 3: that the argument running through the minds of the regime 133 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 3: that's pretty compelling is that if we get a nuclear weapon, 134 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 3: they'll leave us alone. If we don't have one, we 135 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 3: continue to be vulnerable. Mama Didati and Olivia gave up 136 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 3: his nuclear program. He was soon there. Kim John Kim 137 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 3: John room in North Korea. They've kept their program and 138 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 3: no one bothers them. 139 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's like it's a really I mean, it's an 140 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 1: interesting situation. It's it's frightening in some ways, and and 141 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 1: you know, it seems like it's it's sort of teetering, 142 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 1: you know, this this ceasefire, and even though things might 143 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 1: seem as though they're okay at the moment, I mean 144 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: bubbling underneath. We're talking about two countries, and indeed, you 145 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 1: know a country in Iran that that is, you know, 146 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 1: wanting to have that power. 147 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 3: I guess, well, at once that the regime is concerned 148 00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 3: in the regiment. Terian is considered that one thing, and 149 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 3: that's the region survival and see nuclear weapons. And it's 150 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 3: not clear you know, whether they have been committed to 151 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 3: accelerating enough program in recent nunters of Oho claims or 152 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 3: whether they were just keeping an asoption was engaged in talks. 153 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 3: But in any case, they if they go to nutul 154 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 3: A pristically because they see it as a way of 155 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 3: guaranteeing their personal security. I mean, I argue really care 156 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 3: about the nation of Iran. It's just a ocasions rival. 157 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 3: But the Israel, to be fair, has completely decimated Iran's 158 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 3: their defense systems. Israeli Air Force can fly and it will. 159 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 3: All that Iran can do, which is significant, is fire 160 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 3: back ballistic and other missiles at Israel. Currently, Israel's stock 161 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:43,559 Speaker 3: has Arrow three deceptors remarkably effectively. It's shooting down those 162 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:47,199 Speaker 3: those missiles, including blistic missiles in space and above the 163 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 3: eartetnosy to whether they re enter, but Israel has a 164 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 3: definitely finite supply of Arrow three interspectives, these three million 165 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:58,439 Speaker 3: dollar counter missile missiles, and once it runs out of them, 166 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 3: it's got nothing. So it's so we don't know quid 167 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:05,440 Speaker 3: Israel ran out of those missile of deceptives before Iran 168 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:09,599 Speaker 3: runs out of my self suscend with them. You know, 169 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 3: I think both Israel and Iran really have good motivation 170 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,679 Speaker 3: for holding with a peace deal. And Trump has good 171 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 3: motivation for sort of throwing his way things it because 172 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 3: about it's him personally, So that's actually strangely enough grounds 173 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 3: for optimism. 174 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:28,559 Speaker 1: Yeah, hey, what did you make of this of the 175 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 1: you know, the happenings in the last twenty four hours 176 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 1: on that second day of the NATO conference, obviously the 177 00:09:34,720 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 1: member nations agreeing to lift their defense spending to five 178 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 1: percent of GDP over ten years. 179 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, the five percent figure sounds pretty incredible, doesn't it 180 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:46,319 Speaker 3: when you hear it, Even those sort of you know 181 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:49,200 Speaker 3: blows three percent mostly now. But actually there's a bit 182 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 3: of slush there, maybe one and a half more percent 183 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 3: of things like civil engineering works, improving highways, bridges, certain 184 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,440 Speaker 3: the vehicles, tanks and someone can can transfer they need 185 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 3: to across Europe. But there's an increase in defense spending. 186 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 3: So I think the real story there is that NATO. 187 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 3: NATO members are planning for a NATO in which they 188 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 3: can't rely on America. But that transition, which is now 189 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 3: to the point where they've got the capacity to not 190 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 3: have to rely on America. That transition takes police five years, 191 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:23,079 Speaker 3: probably ten to fifteen years, and so they have to 192 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 3: humor what they see as a manchild president so that 193 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 3: he doesn't have a tantrum against them, and so that 194 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 3: they can hang on to one of us support America gives. 195 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:35,320 Speaker 3: And Trump has just announced him they re supply myself 196 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 3: to Ukraine. So that's very good, nude. You know, it's 197 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 3: kind of a precarious dance with this fragile ego just 198 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 3: so they can get through this digitid period. I think 199 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 3: the long term view is we can never rely on 200 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 3: America again in the way that we had for the 201 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:50,559 Speaker 3: last eight years. That's just the reality we have to 202 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:52,559 Speaker 3: come to terms with. But we've got to get through 203 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:55,080 Speaker 3: a pretty tricky period. So we've got a humor him 204 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 3: so we can we don't have any major upset. 205 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 1: Interesting stuff. Well, Greg Barr, we are going to have 206 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 1: to leave it there. Deacon, University Professor in Global Islamic Politics. 207 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:07,439 Speaker 1: Thank you so very much for your time this morning. 208 00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 3: A pleasure. 209 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:10,839 Speaker 2: Thanks for thank you, Thanks so much.