1 00:00:00,520 --> 00:00:05,400 Speaker 1: Already and this is the Daily This is the Daily OS. Oh, 2 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:16,279 Speaker 1: now it makes sense. Good morning and welcome to the 3 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 1: Daily OS. It is Tuesday, the fifteenth of October. 4 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 2: I'm billy, I'm emma. 5 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: You might not know this, but we are now months 6 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 1: away from a federal election in Australia, and yesterday a 7 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 1: new poll showed the Coalition is ahead of the Labor 8 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: Party on a two party preferred basis for the first 9 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 1: time since the last election. Now we will explain exactly 10 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: what that means in today's deep dive, but essentially, at 11 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: a really basic level, it is good news for Opposition 12 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:49,320 Speaker 1: leader Peter Dudden and bad news for Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi. 13 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 1: But before we explain further, Emma, what is making headlines today? 14 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:00,160 Speaker 3: The federal government will spend ninety five million dollars. It's 15 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 3: aimed at protecting Australia from bird flu or avian influenza. 16 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 3: It comes amid a global outbreak of the deadly H 17 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 3: five N one strain, which is yet to reach Australia 18 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 3: but could threaten poultry and wild animal populations. The funding 19 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 3: announcement includes thirty seven million dollars to protect the agriculture 20 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:25,960 Speaker 3: industry and environmental measures to protect Australian biodiversity and threatened species. 21 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 3: Human bird flu infections are rare, but the government has 22 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 3: also announced a twenty two million dollar public health response 23 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 3: to ensure vaccine supplies are ready to respond to potential outbreaks. 24 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 3: Senior government ministers said while the current risk remains low, 25 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 3: there is no room for complacency and that the latest 26 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 3: bird flu strain presents a real and significant threat to 27 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 3: the agriculture sector, as well as species already at risk 28 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 3: of extinction, like some seabirds and the Australian sea lion. 29 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 1: New South Wales Premiere Chris Mins has vowed to straighten 30 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 1: out any confusion surrounding the state's laws against Nazi salutes. 31 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 1: It comes after around fifty men in Balaklava's gathered for 32 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: a neo Nazi rally in regional New South Wales over 33 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: the weekend. The group demonstrated in Korua, near the border 34 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 1: with Victoria, where explicit laws outlawed the Nazi salute and symbols. 35 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 1: The rally led to confusion surrounding the laws in New 36 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 1: South Wales. On Monday, the state's premier condemned the demonstrations 37 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 1: and said his government would quote use all of the 38 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 1: laws available to ensure that people feel safe in their 39 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 1: state and in their communities. Minns said, if there's any ambiguity, 40 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 1: we will straighten it out. 41 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 3: The world's twenty six poorest economies are in their worst 42 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 3: financial shape since two thousand and six. New global analysis 43 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 3: has found findings from the latest World Bank reports show 44 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 3: debt levels have surged in low income countries including Afghanistan, 45 00:02:56,919 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 3: the Gambia, and Syria. The World Bank also found these 46 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 3: countries are increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters. While most countries 47 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:08,799 Speaker 3: have recovered from the economic impacts of the pandemic, government 48 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 3: debt in these countries is at its highest in nearly 49 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 3: two decades. The World Bank found that government spending in 50 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 3: these twenty six countries is generally focused towards immediate needs 51 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 3: like wages, instead of long term priorities like health or education. 52 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:30,519 Speaker 1: In today's good news, Australian researchers have made significant progress 53 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 1: on a new drug for treatment resistant breast cancer. Her 54 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: two positive breast cancer impacts around one in five breast 55 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 1: cancer patients, or around five thousand Australians annually. It can 56 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 1: be resistant to treatment and is known to metastasize into 57 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 1: the brain, lungs or other organs. However, the Hunter Medical 58 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 1: Research Institute in New South Wales says it has had 59 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 1: success in stopping the cancer from spreading by using a 60 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 1: repurposed cancer drug. The trial shows that medication can cross 61 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 1: the blood brain barrier to treat brain cancer cells caused 62 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 1: by her too. Researchers said early results were promising and 63 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 1: the DRUGG is expected to move rapidly to the next 64 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 1: phase of clinical trials. 65 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:16,359 Speaker 3: Okay, Billy, So today we're talking about a new poll 66 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:19,360 Speaker 3: that shows the Coalition is ahead of Labor for the 67 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 3: first time since the federal election in twenty twenty two, 68 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 3: So pretty significant. It's been a long time since the 69 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 3: Coalition we're in front of Labor according to these polls. 70 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 3: But before we get into what that means why that's significant, 71 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 3: a bit of political analysis on the current landscape. Let's 72 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:40,239 Speaker 3: take it right back. Can you give us a quick 73 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 3: rundown of the Australian political landscape. 74 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a good place to start. Kind 75 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 1: of all of the things that you wish you were 76 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,720 Speaker 1: taught in school but never were. That's the daily of 77 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 1: we're going to give you a really quick like politics 78 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 1: Australia one oh one, So let's jump into Australia has 79 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: two major parties. Labor they are the left of center 80 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 1: major party in Australia. They are currently led by Anthony 81 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:06,039 Speaker 1: Albanesi who is the Prime Minister, and they won the 82 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 1: last election, which, like you said, was in twenty twenty two. 83 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 2: And then we have. 84 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:13,600 Speaker 1: The Liberal Party, So they are the right of center 85 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: major party in Australia and they're often referred to as 86 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:19,359 Speaker 1: the coalition, and will be referring to them as the 87 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 1: coalition in this podcast. And that's because to form government 88 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 1: in Australia they join forces with the National Party. Now, 89 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: the National Party are generally considered further to the right 90 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,720 Speaker 1: than the Liberal Party, and the Liberal Party is led 91 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,799 Speaker 1: by Peter Dutton who is currently the opposition leader. 92 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:39,919 Speaker 3: Yes, and also worth noting when we're talking about the coalition, 93 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:42,360 Speaker 3: that is, yes, the Liberal Party is the National Party. 94 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 3: Sometimes in the Australian political landscape, the Liberal Party the 95 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 3: National Party will differ on their approach to policies, on 96 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 3: their ideas. The National Party tend to represent Australians in 97 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 3: more regional, remote rural locations. They typically represent parts of 98 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 3: Australia that might have really dense farming communities, so they're 99 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:08,200 Speaker 3: typically associated more with agriculture. And the Liberal Party is 100 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:10,159 Speaker 3: prominent in cities as well as. 101 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:11,040 Speaker 2: Regional remote areas. 102 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:14,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'd say one of their most recognizable faces 103 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:16,720 Speaker 1: is Barnaby Joyce, so you probably recognize that name. 104 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 2: He is from the National Party. 105 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 1: Now, obviously there are many more parties, but those are 106 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:25,560 Speaker 1: the two major parties that can form government in Australia. Now, 107 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:27,839 Speaker 1: another thing to mention in this little politics one oh 108 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 1: one of Australia is that there is an election in 109 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: Australia coming up. So we have an election cycle every 110 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 1: three years. In the US, we know there is obviously 111 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: an election coming up there that is every four years. 112 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 1: So in Australia it's shorter, it's every three years. In 113 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 1: my mind, it feels like we did just have an election. 114 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, they come around quickly. 115 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 1: They come around so quickly. Now we don't know when 116 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:53,719 Speaker 1: exactly Australia's next election will be, but we know that 117 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: it will be before the seventeenth of May next year. 118 00:06:57,680 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 1: I think we can pretty much completely safely rule out 119 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: that it will happen this year. 120 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 2: So never say never, really never say never. 121 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: You never know what Anthony Alberanzi is thinking, and he's 122 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 1: the one who can basically decide when it happens before 123 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 1: May next year, but we can safely say sometime in 124 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 1: the next seven months. I didn't fact check that mass, 125 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 1: so hopefully that's right now. At the last election, Labor, 126 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 1: again led by Anthony Alberanezi, beat the Coalition, who was 127 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: then led by Scott Morrison by pretty convincing margin. So 128 00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 1: Labour one seventy seven seats compared to the coalition's fifty 129 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 1: eight seats. 130 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 3: And that was after nearly a decade of coalition government. 131 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 3: So I think we often see cycles in Australian politics 132 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 3: of whether or not the popular vote swings slightly to 133 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 3: the left or slightly to the right. Sometimes, you know, 134 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:53,119 Speaker 3: when any government has been in power for a long time, 135 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 3: there's a bit of a course correction in terms of 136 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 3: trends that we see throughout history. 137 00:07:58,400 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think it's fair to say that after 138 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 1: that election, Labor was pretty popular, at least compared to 139 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 1: their opposition. Like you said, the Coalition, who had been 140 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: in government at the federal level for about a decade, 141 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,559 Speaker 1: Labor was pretty popular across the nation after that. After 142 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 1: that last election, not only at the federal level, but 143 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 1: also at the state and territory level. In Mainland Australia, 144 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 1: Labor was in government in each of those governments at 145 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 1: the jurisdiction level. So not only was Labor in control 146 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 1: at national level, it was also in control at a 147 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 1: state level, with Tasmania being the only exception that has 148 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 1: since changed. The Northern Territory now has a Liberal government 149 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 1: and it looks like Queensland's government could be about to 150 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:43,280 Speaker 1: switch from label to coalition. 151 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 2: Obviously, we don't know. 152 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 1: They have a election in about two weeks, and it 153 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 1: only doesn't look like Labor, who has been in government 154 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:53,359 Speaker 1: there for a long time, will have the same popularity. 155 00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:55,880 Speaker 1: Even if they do go in government again, they won't 156 00:08:55,960 --> 00:09:00,120 Speaker 1: have the same popularity that they have had recently. If 157 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:02,440 Speaker 1: you have turned out of what I just said, that 158 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 1: is okay, welcome. Basically all you need to know is 159 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 1: that i'd say the last two years there has been 160 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:13,679 Speaker 1: a bit of a golden era for labor in Australia, 161 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 1: but it looks like that could be changing now. 162 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 2: Yeah. 163 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 3: And also I think that golden era, as you refer 164 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 3: to it, came off the back of maybe a not 165 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 3: so golden era for the previous coalition government. Of course, 166 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 3: when Labour won the last election and Anthony Albanezi began 167 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 3: his prime ministership, that was after the COVID years, a 168 00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 3: really unpopular time for then Prime Minister Scott Morrison, so 169 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 3: they were kind of riding that wave, I guess of 170 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 3: the tide turning against the Coalition. Now Labour's had their time, 171 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 3: but as you say, Billy, things certainly feel. 172 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 2: Like they are shifting again. 173 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:57,440 Speaker 3: The reason why we feel that even more now this 174 00:09:57,559 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 3: week and that we are discussing it is because we 175 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:02,559 Speaker 3: have have evidence in the form of a new poll, 176 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 3: a new poll that's come out saying the Coalition is 177 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:09,200 Speaker 3: in front of Labor for the first time since twenty 178 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:10,079 Speaker 3: twenty two. 179 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 2: What do we need to know about this one? 180 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:17,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, So yesterday News Call Publication, The Australian, the newspaper, 181 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 1: they released a new poll it's officially called the News Poll, 182 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 1: and it revealed that the Coalition now leads Labor in 183 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 1: the polls for the first time since that twenty twenty 184 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 1: two election that we've talked about. 185 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:33,439 Speaker 3: And when we're talking about polls, News Poll is considered 186 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 3: just for context, it's considered one of the most credible, 187 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 3: most thorough polls. You'll obviously read and see lots of 188 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 3: polls that are discussed in the media widely, but this 189 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:45,640 Speaker 3: is kind of one of those polls that is broadly 190 00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 3: taken quite silently. 191 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely. And now this was done on a two 192 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: party preferred basis, and this is kind of the most 193 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 1: common polling number quoted in media such as US that 194 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 1: feels very metaf media. And that's even though it's not 195 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 1: how voters are asked to vote come election date. So 196 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 1: when you're voting at the polls, you know it's never 197 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:10,600 Speaker 1: do you want to vote for Labor or the coalition? 198 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:14,199 Speaker 1: You have so many different parties and independents that you 199 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 1: can vote for. But this poll is just specifically asking 200 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:20,839 Speaker 1: if the election is tomorrow and the choice in front 201 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 1: of you was Labor or the coalition, which one would 202 00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 1: you vote for? And the result from that was that 203 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: fifty one percent of respondents said that they would prefer 204 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:34,720 Speaker 1: a coalition government compared to forty nine percent who said Labor. 205 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:37,199 Speaker 2: So still quite close. 206 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely, still close. And these polls often are close, 207 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 1: but you only need a tiny margin to become the 208 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 1: government and to form government. Now, another question they asked 209 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 1: is who is the preferred PM? And interestingly, despite that 210 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 1: result that we just talked about where the coalition was 211 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 1: ahead of Labor, the question on who is the preferred 212 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 1: PM actually saw Anthony Albanesi ahead of Peter Dutton. 213 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 3: Okay, so the coalition slightly edging Labor on preferred party 214 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:12,080 Speaker 3: preferred PM, though Albow slightlyhead of Dunton. 215 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 2: Do we know how much? 216 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 1: By Yeah? So Albanesi was at forty five percent compared 217 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:20,959 Speaker 1: to Dudden, who was at thirty seven percent, and then 218 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:24,839 Speaker 1: there was eighteen percent who were uncommitted. I like that frame, 219 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:26,560 Speaker 1: noncommittal committed. 220 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 3: I also worth mentioning that the previous News poll had 221 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:35,640 Speaker 3: Albow at forty six percent preferred PM, Dutton thirty seven. 222 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 3: So Dutton's approval there as Prime Minister hasn't improved, but 223 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 3: it hasn't gotten worse. Albanesi's approval has declined. Yes, okay, 224 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 3: So as we discuss these numbers, I am kind of 225 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 3: thinking about polling in general. It can get a bit 226 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 3: of a bad rap. I want to say, probably at 227 00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 3: least in my consciousness. Since Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton, 228 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:05,200 Speaker 3: in the twenty sixteen US presidential election, I've personally felt 229 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:09,439 Speaker 3: differently about polls, very skeptical and rust I am skeptical. 230 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 3: That is what makes you a journalist, thank you so much, 231 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 3: or just someone with trust issues. 232 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 2: How then, really should we. 233 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 3: Interpret these results, this news poll data? 234 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you're definitely obviously not alone, and we 235 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 1: should definitely interpret these with a grain of salt. I 236 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 1: don't think, you know, this is the bible of truth, 237 00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:34,440 Speaker 1: but they definitely can give us some insights. We know, 238 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 1: like you said that, polls definitely have had a bad reputation. 239 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 1: I think you know, between twenty sixteen to twenty twenty, 240 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:44,000 Speaker 1: it kind of just kept feeling like they were getting 241 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 1: it wrong. There was the twenty nineteen Australian election where 242 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 1: polsters infamously got it very wrong. I mean, everyone was 243 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:55,080 Speaker 1: so certain that Labor would win that election, and then 244 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:58,560 Speaker 1: Scott Morrison and the Coalition really came through with a 245 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:00,160 Speaker 1: very convincing win. 246 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 3: A victory that I think even shocked Scott Barrison, based 247 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 3: on this very famous grab from his election speech, I. 248 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 1: Have always believed in miracles. I'm saying that the three 249 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: biggest miracles in my life here tonight, and tonight we've. 250 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 3: Been delivered another one. 251 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: And then, Emma, like you said, the twenty sixteen very 252 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 1: infamous example of when Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump, 253 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 1: and again that went against what all of the polling 254 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 1: before that election said. But that definitely hasn't meant that 255 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 1: polling has been thrown out of the window. I think 256 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 1: it has just meant that pollsters have had to improve 257 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 1: their calculation methods, and that is exactly what they said 258 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 1: that they have done. And I think it's worth mentioning 259 00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 1: that in the past four years or so, I think 260 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 1: we've had less examples of when they have been completely wrong. 261 00:14:55,600 --> 00:15:00,200 Speaker 3: And for all it's worth for those polls that miscalculate 262 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 3: got it wrong. If that means ultimately we have a 263 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 3: bolstered system, if the data is more comprehensive, if that 264 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 3: gives us better numbers on the other side, I guess it's. 265 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 2: All worth it. 266 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 1: Definitely. 267 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 3: Okay, so we know that poles should be taken with 268 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 3: a grain of salt, but I can't help but think, 269 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 3: reflecting on this newspole data, that it has been a 270 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 3: tumultuous period for the government. There have been a few 271 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 3: swings in misses and a lot of criticism leveled at 272 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 3: the government for its handling of many issues. What are 273 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 3: some of the key contributing factors to this shifting attitude 274 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:37,600 Speaker 3: towards the government. 275 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:41,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm really interested in your perspective on this as well, Emma, 276 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 1: because when I was going through kind of what has 277 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 1: been a very tumultuous period for the government, it was 278 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 1: very clear that the Labor government has really struggled to 279 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 1: you know, have a quote unquote win recently. But then 280 00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: I was thinking that, you know, is there such thing 281 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 1: as a non tumultuous period in history. I'm not sure, 282 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 1: but to go through some of them. So, Labor has 283 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 1: had their housing bill stuck in the Senate recently. So 284 00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 1: they have had this suite of reforms that they have 285 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 1: tried to get through, but they have not had enough 286 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 1: support in the Senate where they do not have a majority, 287 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 1: and that has meant that they just have legislation stuck 288 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:22,600 Speaker 1: there and the public is saying, what are you doing 289 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 1: about the housing crisis and they aren't able to say much. 290 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of disunity around those housing reforms. That's 291 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:34,640 Speaker 3: what started this conversation around the potential early election double disillusion. 292 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,400 Speaker 3: It's one of the first key policy issues that I 293 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 3: can remember in a long time that the Greens and 294 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 3: the Coalition have sat on the same side in the 295 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 3: United in their disunity against this legislation. I think that's 296 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 3: always a bit of a flag in politics, when the 297 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 3: Greens and the Coalition are coming together to say no 298 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 3: on something. 299 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:55,920 Speaker 1: It's a rare thing to see. 300 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 3: Yeah. 301 00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 1: Also in this time of government for Labor, they have 302 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 1: had the to Parliament which failed to get the support 303 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 1: of the public. Yesterday it was one year since that 304 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 1: failed referendum. We actually did the podcast on it yesterday, 305 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 1: so we will link to that episode in the show notes. 306 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 1: We've also had the cost of living crisis, which has 307 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:17,560 Speaker 1: become one of the biggest issues that voters care about 308 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 1: right now. There's also, of course the war in the 309 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:23,439 Speaker 1: Middle East, which is a huge area we know what 310 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:27,960 Speaker 1: Australians care a lot about how the government is handling that. Again, 311 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 1: there has been a lot of criticism from all sides 312 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 1: directed to the government on how they have been handling that. 313 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:34,720 Speaker 2: Also. 314 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:38,520 Speaker 1: I've been thinking a lot about unforced errors during my research, 315 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 1: which I think is a sporting term, okay, but I 316 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 1: think it's really relevant here because I was thinking about 317 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:46,639 Speaker 1: the census to barcle recently where. 318 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,400 Speaker 3: The governess the censors yeah, where. 319 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 1: The government said that they wouldn't be asking Australians about 320 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 1: their sexuality in the next census, and then that caused 321 00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,880 Speaker 1: a lot of criticism and then they backflipped and said, 322 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,639 Speaker 1: actually we will. I think when that happened and the 323 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:04,919 Speaker 1: government said that they weren't doing that, a lot of 324 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 1: people presumed that it had been a really deeply thought 325 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:12,200 Speaker 1: about result, like that they had a really good reason 326 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 1: for why they didn't do that. Yeah, and then when 327 00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 1: there was all this criticism, they were like, oh, sorry, okay, 328 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 1: we will do that. 329 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:18,640 Speaker 2: And it just felt like. 330 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 1: This unforced error, like if you were going to change 331 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,679 Speaker 1: it so quickly, why did you come out and say no, 332 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 1: you weren't. 333 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 3: Initially they brought the kind of microscope on themselves. Yes, 334 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:34,160 Speaker 3: by making something a political issue that wasn't necessarily front 335 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,479 Speaker 3: of mind for the everyday Australian exactly of their lives. 336 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:39,840 Speaker 1: And then when the Australian public said why did you 337 00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:42,919 Speaker 1: make this decision, they didn't have an answer. There was 338 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:47,199 Speaker 1: also this was really recently the comment by Albanesi in 339 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 1: Parliament when he mocked Shadow treasurer at Angus Taylor asking 340 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 1: if he had Turets this nonsense that they carry on 341 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:59,119 Speaker 1: with the idea that where have you got Tourett's or 342 00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 1: something you know, you know, you see there, bambo bamba, 343 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:08,120 Speaker 1: Are we drawn? 344 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:08,919 Speaker 3: Missus vega? 345 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,920 Speaker 1: Are we drawn? Are wed? So? I think the last 346 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:14,879 Speaker 1: two in particular, they just felt like the definition of 347 00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 1: these unforced errors where the Labor Party had all this 348 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,160 Speaker 1: negative media attention and it was something that was completely 349 00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:22,360 Speaker 1: avoidable for them. 350 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think some of those moments have shed 351 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 3: light on potential uncertainty or indecision within the party. They've 352 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 3: been accused of that indecisiveness on those issues that seemed 353 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:40,400 Speaker 3: to have created these huge political storms out of nowhere 354 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:44,399 Speaker 3: that seemed completely avoidable. We had a bit of a 355 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:49,320 Speaker 3: cabinet reshuffle. Claire O'Neill was dumped from Home Affairs Andrew 356 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 3: Giles was moved on from Immigration, and that caused a 357 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,600 Speaker 3: little bit of controversy, you know, conversations around that those 358 00:19:56,640 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 3: senior ministers hadn't done enough and weren't antwer to their 359 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 3: mistakes and had just been kind of moved around. Lots 360 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,919 Speaker 3: of headlines, lots of speculation, but again, you know, the 361 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,400 Speaker 3: inner workings of what is really going on day to day, 362 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 3: what Anthony Albineasi is thinking about the next election, we 363 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 3: can't know. We don't know, but certainly there hasn't been 364 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,919 Speaker 3: a lot of great pr you could say, around the 365 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:21,879 Speaker 3: government in the last six ish months. 366 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:23,920 Speaker 1: No, I'm trying to think of a win they've had 367 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,639 Speaker 1: and just thinking out loud. You know, maybe the federal 368 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 1: budget having its back to back surplus in almost twenty years. 369 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:35,440 Speaker 1: That was positive PR. But I also feel like that 370 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 1: didn't get as much media attention as possibly they would 371 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 1: have liked. 372 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that the commentary around that was a 373 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:44,719 Speaker 3: lot of people felt that they didn't really have capacity 374 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 3: to care about a surplus in cost of living, which 375 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,680 Speaker 3: really goes to the heart of the cost of living 376 00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 3: attention or criticism when people are kind of struggling to 377 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,639 Speaker 3: put food on the table every day. I guess, regardless 378 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 3: of the politics of the government of the day, if 379 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 3: you're worrying about, you know, paying your electricity bill, do 380 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,359 Speaker 3: you really want to hear senior government ministers telling you 381 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,400 Speaker 3: how great they are because there's a surplus? 382 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:09,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess another thing I was just thinking about 383 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 1: as you were speaking, probably the hex they did change 384 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:18,240 Speaker 1: the student debt laws. That has probably been a win 385 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 1: that has helped young people and especially during the cost 386 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:25,200 Speaker 1: of living crisis. But again that's one of a whole 387 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 1: suite of really bad pr Now, I do think it's 388 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 1: worth mentioning that the opposition hasn't necessarily had a whole 389 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:37,080 Speaker 1: heap of wins recently. But obviously they are not in 390 00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 1: government and so the same level of scrutiny or the 391 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:43,960 Speaker 1: same you know, microscope isn't applied to them when you're 392 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 1: in opposition, and that's one of the few benefits of 393 00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:48,960 Speaker 1: being in opposition. 394 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,480 Speaker 3: Also, one of the kind of patterns that we're used 395 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:54,879 Speaker 3: to seeing in the Australian political landscape is when you 396 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:58,119 Speaker 3: have a labor government, the coalition can be pretty hard 397 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:02,680 Speaker 3: on that government when it comes to economic policy, and 398 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,640 Speaker 3: a lot of Australians would be very used to hearing 399 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 3: Peter Darton and the Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor talking about 400 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 3: the government's economic mismanagement during a cost of living crisis. 401 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 3: That as well probably could be taken with a grain 402 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,119 Speaker 3: of salt, given you know, we've seen high inflation and 403 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,640 Speaker 3: economic uncertainty, right around the world. It is easier when 404 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 3: you're in opposition, no matter what side of politics. It's 405 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,639 Speaker 3: easier in opposition to kind of criticize what's going on 406 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:31,280 Speaker 3: in front of you. But these are very very real 407 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,440 Speaker 3: issues in the lives of everyday Australians. 408 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. It will be fascinating to see what happens, 409 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:42,240 Speaker 1: and we've got, like I said, seven months to see 410 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:46,080 Speaker 1: how the Australian public votes and to see how they 411 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,680 Speaker 1: respond to this key policy areas. 412 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 3: I was reflecting a little bit on the political landscape 413 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 3: of the moment billion while you were talking there, thinking 414 00:22:55,160 --> 00:23:00,080 Speaker 3: about it doesn't feel like a particularly united time in 415 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,160 Speaker 3: Parliament anyway. It doesn't feel like, you know, there's any 416 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,520 Speaker 3: one party or leader or figure or policy idea that's 417 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 3: really winning over the hearts and minds of Australians en mass, 418 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:14,359 Speaker 3: particularly when it's such a divisive time around the world 419 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 3: in terms of global conflict. It doesn't really feel like 420 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:20,959 Speaker 3: there's a lot of love for anyone in Canberra. And 421 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:24,199 Speaker 3: I think there is concern when you have that disenfranchisement 422 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:27,880 Speaker 3: from voters, if they begin to feel apathetic, if they 423 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,639 Speaker 3: begin to disengage from politics. You know, that's probably worst 424 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,439 Speaker 3: case scenario because if the community aren't engaged, no one 425 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,679 Speaker 3: is holding anyone to account. And you know, ultimately what 426 00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 3: we want is robust, healthy democracy and for everyone to 427 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 3: really care about what's going on in parliament totally. 428 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 1: And like you said, I think that is something that 429 00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 1: is apparent around the world. I mean, if we look 430 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 1: at the US election again, I feel like the word 431 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 1: divided is the word of that election. 432 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 2: That defines that election. 433 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 1: Everyone says that America has never been more divided, and 434 00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 1: it's because of the times that we are in Philly. 435 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,359 Speaker 3: Thank you so much for breaking that one down for 436 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:09,040 Speaker 3: us today, super Zooper interesting. If you learn something from 437 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 3: today's episode, please feel free to send it to a friend, 438 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,680 Speaker 3: leave us a review. Make sure that you are following 439 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 3: or subscribed to the podcast wherever you listen or if 440 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:21,360 Speaker 3: you're watching us over on our YouTube channel. We will 441 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 3: be back with another episode of The Daily Ols tomorrow, 442 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:25,600 Speaker 3: but until then, have a great day. 443 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:30,639 Speaker 1: My name is Lily Madden and I'm a proud Arunda 444 00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:35,639 Speaker 1: Bungelung Caalcuttin woman from Gadigol Country. The Daly oz acknowledges 445 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:37,879 Speaker 1: that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the 446 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:41,480 Speaker 1: Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres 447 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,399 Speaker 1: Strait Island and nations. We pay our respects to the 448 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,199 Speaker 1: first peoples of these countries, both past and present,