1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,280 Speaker 1: Bit of a change of pace though right now, because 2 00:00:02,320 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: we know that Northern Australia, it's being reported, is increasingly 3 00:00:06,519 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: becoming a potential threat to Beijing. Well that is what 4 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: a former deputy ambassador to China has expressed when saying 5 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 1: that he's concerned as well that Southerners were naive to 6 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: the scale of US military build up across the top 7 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:23,680 Speaker 1: end now. According to a report in The Northern Territory 8 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 1: News earlier this week, the cautionary words from John Lander 9 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 1: came after the Defense Industry Minister Pat Conroy announced the 10 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: government would be splashing seven billion dollars to acquire medium 11 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 1: and long term ranged missiles for the Royal Australian Navy. 12 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:42,520 Speaker 1: Now joining us on the line is doctor John con 13 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 1: the director of National Security Programs at the Australian Strategic 14 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:48,479 Speaker 1: Policy Units. Good morning to you. 15 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 2: John, morning Katie. 16 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 1: Lovely to have you on the show now, doctor coin 17 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: It was reported that during the visit to Washington, DC 18 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:00,280 Speaker 1: last week that mister Conroy said the standard Missile two 19 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 1: block and Standard Missiles six would be added to the 20 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 1: Navy's arsenal of weapons. I mean, the greatest arms race 21 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: in our region since nineteen forty five. What do you 22 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,040 Speaker 1: make of the comments? And I mean, where are we 23 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 1: at here in the Northern territory. 24 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 2: Look, you know what, there's always that great saying, you know, 25 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 2: carry on and keep calm. So you know, right from 26 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:28,760 Speaker 2: the start, what we can say is that we've entered 27 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:33,559 Speaker 2: a period of real strategic uncertainty. We're seeing this massive 28 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 2: amount of competition between China and the US. We can 29 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 2: no longer talk about a post war Europe. You know, 30 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:44,960 Speaker 2: the war in Ukraine is raging. People are dying every day. 31 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 2: We've seen conflict in the Middle East. We see the 32 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 2: Hoofies are a terrorist group attacking shipping. So we are 33 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 2: that layered with climate change and layered with economic uncer 34 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 2: think we've entered a period of time where there's great 35 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 2: strategic uncertainty. So that's the first thing. So in great 36 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 2: periods of strategic uncertainty, all of a sudden, the insurance 37 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 2: policy of building defense capability, the time frame for that 38 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 2: becomes much shorter and it becomes a higher priority. So, 39 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:22,600 Speaker 2: you know, the Defense Strategic Review said, for the first 40 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 2: time since the nineteen eighties, we've probably entered a period 41 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 2: of less than ten years warning time of a major conflict. 42 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:29,920 Speaker 2: But I want to be careful of this, which is 43 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 2: I'm not saying that a major conflict is inevitable, certain 44 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 2: or not avoidable. What I'm saying, though, is it does 45 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 2: mean that government has to take it's the threat of 46 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,080 Speaker 2: conflict more seriously and. 47 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: As such, I'm assuming has to make sure that we 48 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 1: have got everything that we need. 49 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 2: Look absolutely, but also you know, this is about national 50 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:55,080 Speaker 2: resilience as much as it it's about weapon systems, so 51 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 2: you know that there's a lot of challenges for government 52 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 2: in this space. I do think that any statement in 53 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:07,079 Speaker 2: relation to Northern Australia going, you know, because of the 54 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 2: increased US presence, Australia is a greater target for Beijing 55 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 2: is mischievous and misleading. First off, it really makes a 56 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 2: statement that it makes an assumption that Australia wasn't that already. Secondly, 57 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 2: it says if we only toe the line, you know 58 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 2: what will happen is is Beijing will leave us alone. 59 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 2: But in fact, China that's turning around as saying you 60 00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:34,680 Speaker 2: must choose between your greatest trading partner and your longest 61 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 2: term strategic security partner. It's not the US saying that. 62 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 1: So do you think that our relationship with the US 63 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 1: and our build up, you know, of US military here 64 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 1: in Northern Australia, does it make us a greater thread 65 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 1: or does it mean that we're more prepared should something rise. 66 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 2: Look, I think it makes us more prepared. I also 67 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 2: think we need to put the US presidence in context. 68 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 2: So you know, you're being tricky if you turn around 69 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 2: and say this massive build up. You know, the Marines, 70 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 2: it took ten years to get to a six month 71 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 2: rotation of marine to come in, do training every for 72 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 2: a six month period and then leave. They are an 73 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 2: integral part of the community. They spend money and certainly 74 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:25,119 Speaker 2: the relationships. So you remember when the osprays went down 75 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 2: and those deaths and how the Northern Territory community responded 76 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 2: to that in support of the Marines. You know, I 77 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:37,599 Speaker 2: think this categorization that that's a massive build up. There's 78 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 2: no doubt that there's a greater presence in a raft 79 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:43,479 Speaker 2: based hindle and money is being spent on the facilities. 80 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 2: But we're not talking here about you know, there's a 81 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 2: huge difference between comparing se Guam, where a large portion 82 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 2: of US capability is based, and what we're talking about 83 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 2: in northern Australia. 84 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,839 Speaker 1: We now, according to the report as well, mister Landro 85 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 1: had said there's he had reservations about the US presence 86 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:06,479 Speaker 1: in Australia, the former deputy ambassador, maintaining that the top 87 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 1: end was being weaponized by Washington d C in favor 88 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 1: of America's interests. And also you know that it was 89 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 1: sort of happening with other parts of Australia, maybe not 90 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 1: even realizing or being too busy or pre consumed with 91 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:24,040 Speaker 1: other things to realize. What do you make of those comments? 92 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 2: Look, I think the issue here is is and let's 93 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:33,359 Speaker 2: for a moment consider this through through a slightly different lens. 94 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 3: Beijing, our greatest. 95 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 2: Trading partner, put a number of trade barriers against our coal, 96 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:46,159 Speaker 2: against our lobsters, against our wine, against our Barali, and 97 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 2: it said do what we want you to do or 98 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 2: you won't trade with US. Okay, So now that's not 99 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:57,160 Speaker 2: good faith acting, you know. And if you shrink, you know, 100 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 2: anyone in relation to bullying tac if you shrink and 101 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:06,840 Speaker 2: a peas you really do, run the risk that you'll 102 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 2: be of in a weaker position next time that that occurs. 103 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 2: And I'm not saying this is about conflict. We have 104 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 2: a long term, long term strategic relationship with the US 105 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 2: and so you know they're a natural partner of ours 106 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,479 Speaker 2: where we collaborate and cooperate across a range of areas. 107 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:30,160 Speaker 2: But we also compete with them too economically for markets. 108 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 2: So you know, for bodd time someone gets up and 109 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 2: says ase sorts of absolute things, you know that I'm 110 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 2: not convinced that that's in the best interest of good 111 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:43,160 Speaker 2: public debate and good public policy discourse. Okay, it is 112 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 2: an incredibly complex environment. Australia wants to continue to trade coal, 113 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:52,839 Speaker 2: iron or lobsters wine with China, but it also wants 114 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 2: to maintain its relationship in terms of security and cooperation 115 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 2: with the US. And certainly we shouldn't underplay the two 116 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 2: way trade balance between Australia and the US. 117 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 1: I think they're very very good points, John, How do 118 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:08,840 Speaker 1: you think things? I mean, I'm not asking you to 119 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 1: predict the US election on the weekend, but how do 120 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 1: you reckon the outcome of the election on the weekend 121 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 1: or could it, you know, in any way change our 122 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 1: relationship with the US or the build up that we 123 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: are seeing a US military in the top end. 124 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 2: Look you know what the first thing is is predicting the. 125 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 3: Future is always a bit of a mark game. 126 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 1: You know. 127 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 4: I spent a lot of time talking about this in 128 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 4: terms of I don't have a crystal ball on my desk. 129 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 4: I have a magic eight ball that I sometimes like 130 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 4: to ask questions and shake up and down. It doesn't 131 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 4: always give me honest answers, and sometimes it's just too 132 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 4: early to tell that before elections. 133 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 1: Every time there's an election, John. 134 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 3: But look, I think for those listening, okay, we know 135 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 3: that if we see a Harris win, we like to 136 00:07:56,360 --> 00:08:00,080 Speaker 3: see a continuation of the current strategy. Okay, if we 137 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 3: see a Trump win, and you know, admittedly President Trump 138 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 3: does suffer from a random thoughts while shaving in the 139 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 3: morning and making sudden decisions. But that said, he has 140 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 3: a great deal of continuity here, so if you're looking 141 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 3: at it, he's been very clear he doesn't want Europe 142 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 3: to be a free loader, so he wants to resolve 143 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 3: the war in Ukraine somehow, so he doesn't want to 144 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 3: be there. Similarly, in the Middle East, he doesn't want 145 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:34,559 Speaker 3: to be entrenched in an ongoing Middle East conflicts. That said, 146 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 3: he is also extremely clear about his commitment to the 147 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 3: Indo Pacific and competition between the US and China. So 148 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 3: that was a very long way to get to the 149 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 3: short end for which his continuity seems to be likely 150 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 3: in terms of US presidency in Northern Australia. 151 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:53,719 Speaker 1: Well, we'll all be keeping a bit of an eye 152 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 1: on thing, so I'm sure, John Coin. I always appreciate 153 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 1: your time, always enjoy a chat with you. Thank you 154 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 1: so much for joining me this morning. 155 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 2: Thank Cattie, thank you. 156 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 1: Talk soon.