WEBVTT - Is turbulence getting worse?

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<v Speaker 1>Already and this is this is the daily this is

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<v Speaker 1>the Daily OS. Oh, now it makes sense. Good morning

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<v Speaker 1>and welcome to the Daily OS. It's Tuesday, the twenty

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<v Speaker 1>eighth of May. I'm Sam, I'm Sara. In the last week,

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<v Speaker 1>there have been two major incidents of turbulence hitting commercial flights,

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<v Speaker 1>causing injury. Yesterday, twelve were injured on a Qatar Airways

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<v Speaker 1>flight from Dohart to Dublin while in the air over Turkey. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>in today's podcast, we're going to talk to a professor

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<v Speaker 1>of aviation about why we're seeing a sudden spike in turbulence,

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<v Speaker 1>if there's anything to be worried about, if we've got

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<v Speaker 1>a flight soon, and why you should always wear a

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<v Speaker 1>seat belt. But first, Sarah, what is making headlines this morning?

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<v Speaker 2>As many as two thousand people are feared trapped beneath

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<v Speaker 2>the rubble of a landslide in Papua New Guinea. The

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<v Speaker 2>landslide struck a remote village in p Andng's Anger Province

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<v Speaker 2>early on Friday morning. Local authorities are currently working with

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<v Speaker 2>the UN after rescue efforts were hampered by road blockages

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<v Speaker 2>and shifting terrain around the site of the incident. The

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<v Speaker 2>UN and PMG's Defense Force are providing emergency shelter, food

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<v Speaker 2>and water to those affected.

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<v Speaker 1>Regional property values and rent prices have increased to record

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<v Speaker 1>high levels. That's according to new data from core Logic.

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<v Speaker 1>House prices in the regions are also increasing at a

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<v Speaker 1>higher rate than homes in the capital cities. In the

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<v Speaker 1>three months to April, property values in regional Australia grew

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<v Speaker 1>by two point one percent. That's compared to one point

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<v Speaker 1>seven percent growth in capital cities. Over the same period,

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<v Speaker 1>we also saw rents go up in regional areas. They

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<v Speaker 1>grew six point three percent. That's up from four point

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<v Speaker 1>nine percent.

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<v Speaker 2>As state of emergency has been lifted in New Caledonia

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<v Speaker 2>after deadly riots in the French territory this month. Seven

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<v Speaker 2>people died during protests, which came after France's lower house

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<v Speaker 2>passed a bill to allow French residents who have lived

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<v Speaker 2>in New Caledonia for ten years to vote in local elections. Protesters,

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<v Speaker 2>some of whom belonged to the island's indigenous Canaric people,

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<v Speaker 2>argued the bill would threaten their political influence. French President

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<v Speaker 2>Emmanuel Macron confirmed the state of emergency would be lifted

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<v Speaker 2>on Tuesday morning, after he visited the region last week.

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<v Speaker 1>And today's good news. Australian paleontologists have discovered the fossils

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<v Speaker 1>of three never before seen ancient animal species, referred to

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<v Speaker 1>as the echidna puss. The monitorum species has characteristics of

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<v Speaker 1>both the Echidna and the platypus. Fossils dating back over

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred million years were found in Lightning Ridge in

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<v Speaker 1>New South Wales. Professor Tim Flannery said it's like discovering

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<v Speaker 1>a whole new civilization, so Zara, This podcast episode might

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<v Speaker 1>not be for everyone, right.

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<v Speaker 2>I was going to say, I think if you are

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<v Speaker 2>someone that is a scared flier or an anxious flier,

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<v Speaker 2>and or someone who's getting on a plane like I

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<v Speaker 2>am later this week and just not in the headspace

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<v Speaker 2>to want to listen to an entire episode dedicated to turbulence,

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<v Speaker 2>feel free to skip today's episode. We will be back

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<v Speaker 2>again tomorrow. But look, it's not for everyone.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, But I do think that these events over the

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<v Speaker 1>last couple of weeks, mainly the Singapore Airlines flight and

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<v Speaker 1>now this Guitar Airlines flight, has led to some very

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<v Speaker 1>interesting questions coming up in you know chat groups.

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<v Speaker 2>I was going to say, it's been dominating the group

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<v Speaker 2>chat for me about whether or not this is a

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<v Speaker 2>new thing. Yeah, this sort of very violent turbulence that

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<v Speaker 2>we've seen injuries and in some cases even death as

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<v Speaker 2>a result of so very keen to listen to this chat.

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<v Speaker 1>There's also a whole climate change element we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>get into, so instead of us hypothesizing, I put these

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<v Speaker 1>questions to Professor Jason Middleton. He was the head of

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<v Speaker 1>unsw's Department of Aviation from nineteen ninety five until twenty seventeen.

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<v Speaker 1>He's also a commercial pilot himself. Now since then he's

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<v Speaker 1>been an emeritus professor looking at airborne research. Here's that chat.

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<v Speaker 1>Professor Middleton, thank you so much for joining us on

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<v Speaker 1>the podcast this morning.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm pleased to be here.

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<v Speaker 1>So we've seen two major turbulence events in the past week.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there something bigger going on here?

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<v Speaker 3>No, I don't think so. The whole issue of turbulence

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<v Speaker 3>is that it's highly unpredictable and it occurs because of

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<v Speaker 3>the basically the heat engine of the sun. The sun

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<v Speaker 3>creates a lot of heat on the surface of the ocean,

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<v Speaker 3>and that heat is transferred to the atmosphere and creates

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<v Speaker 3>clouds that is always going to be with us, and

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<v Speaker 3>it is difficult to predict.

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<v Speaker 1>Has there been more turbulence recorded in recent years than

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<v Speaker 1>there was, say thirty or forty years ago, that.

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<v Speaker 3>Or may or may not be the case of it's

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<v Speaker 3>been recorded. Remember that these days everyone has phones, everyone

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<v Speaker 3>has powerful equipment to record everything, whereas in the old

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<v Speaker 3>days they didn't. So a lot of things that are

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<v Speaker 3>here to happen more often now perhaps don't happen more

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<v Speaker 3>often or only just recorded. It's happening more often.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, interesting, So basically what I'm hearing from you is

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<v Speaker 1>that you've seen I mean, we've had the Singapore Airlines

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<v Speaker 1>incident last week, We've had now a Qatar Airlines incident

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<v Speaker 1>in the last couple of days. Are you saying that

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<v Speaker 1>this is no cause for alarm and just almost kind

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<v Speaker 1>of part of air travel, but it's just being recorded

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<v Speaker 1>more well at the moment.

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<v Speaker 3>We can talk about the possible influences of climate change

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<v Speaker 3>a little later, But yeah, the earth is warming fello

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<v Speaker 3>drastically in some ways, but in other ways. The impact

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<v Speaker 3>on local turbulence, for example, is unlikely to even be measurable.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so let's talk about that climate change idea. So

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<v Speaker 1>the general principle is experts have come out and said

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<v Speaker 1>as climate change progresses, turbulence will become more frequent.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's true. But because there'll be more energy

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<v Speaker 3>in the atmosphere, the whole one is greater solar heating,

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<v Speaker 3>you've got greater evaporation. And for people who want to

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<v Speaker 3>know the technical stuff, once evaporation happens, the water vapor

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<v Speaker 3>turns ultimately into droplets. From water vapor to droplets, there's

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<v Speaker 3>a release of what's called latent heat, the release of

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of heat, and that helps boil the clouds

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<v Speaker 3>up or make some look as though they're boiling upwards,

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<v Speaker 3>and in fact they are. The convective turbulence is going

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<v Speaker 3>right up in the atmosphere to way above where normal

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<v Speaker 3>airliners fly.

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<v Speaker 1>You wear a commercial pilot yourself. Give me a sense

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<v Speaker 1>of what it feels like as a pilot when there

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<v Speaker 1>is an incident of turbulence.

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<v Speaker 3>I actually went into a thunderstorm inadvertently. Once the sky

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<v Speaker 3>gets a lot darker, the turbulence gets stronger. You have

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<v Speaker 3>your auter pilot on to try and help you keep

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<v Speaker 3>the aircraft straight and level, the turbulence gets the point

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<v Speaker 3>where if you're not banging your head against the roof

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<v Speaker 3>because the seatbell is holding you down, you're banging your

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<v Speaker 3>head inadvertently against the side of the cockpit. When you

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<v Speaker 3>get to that stage, you do a U turret and

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<v Speaker 3>gave back on your reciprocal direction and get out of

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<v Speaker 3>there as quickly as possible. That's the standard process, and

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<v Speaker 3>it's fairly scary because ultimately very severe turbulence can cause

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<v Speaker 3>damage to the aeroplane.

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<v Speaker 1>Could it be severe enough that the plane itself could crash.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, yes, or you have structural damage to the control

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<v Speaker 3>services for example. So yeah, all airlines will try and

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<v Speaker 3>avoid turbulence, so I'll avoid big thunderstorms. Now, the weather

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<v Speaker 3>radars that are in aeroplanes and not actually weather radars,

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<v Speaker 3>they're a bit like the Bureau of Meteorologies radar. They

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<v Speaker 3>are rain radars. They only get reflection from decent sized

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<v Speaker 3>water droplets, not from vapor, so that when you're flying

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<v Speaker 3>in an area where there's rain, the radar, even on

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<v Speaker 3>the best jets these days, will give you a lovely

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<v Speaker 3>return of where the rainfall is intense, and you'll know

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<v Speaker 3>then to avoid that. But areas surrounding that might still

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<v Speaker 3>have strong updrafts and down drafts, but you don't see

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<v Speaker 3>them in the radar. Probably there, but you don't see

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<v Speaker 3>them in the radar.

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<v Speaker 1>So what you're saying is that there's ultimately a certain

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<v Speaker 1>level of unforeseen risks that come with turbulence. Is there

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<v Speaker 1>an effort in the aviation community to build tools that

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<v Speaker 1>can better predict where that turbulence is coming from or

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<v Speaker 1>is that almost like kind of predicting God.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, trouble with turbulence is that it's momentary. So for example,

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<v Speaker 3>you can have a zone of turbulence which is really

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<v Speaker 3>intense for one or two minutes with down drafted up,

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<v Speaker 3>and then two minutes later it's gone. The meteorologists can say, look,

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<v Speaker 3>the atmosphere is fairly unstable at the moment. We're going

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<v Speaker 3>to have very intense growth of cumulus clouds and accumulate

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<v Speaker 3>nimbus clouds. This will produce intense turbulence in patches. So

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<v Speaker 3>we know it's going to happen, you don't know exactly

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<v Speaker 3>where it is. So if you look at a smoke

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<v Speaker 3>from a fire, you'll see that you get these billows

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<v Speaker 3>of turbulence and the billows of turbulence are hoighly arising.

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<v Speaker 3>But along with that highly arising, you also get colder

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<v Speaker 3>air from surrounding entering say into a cloud, and that

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<v Speaker 3>color air is denser and it sinks. So in a

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<v Speaker 3>cloud where you've got very strong updrafts, you will also

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<v Speaker 3>have clean, dry air come in from outside at higher levels,

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<v Speaker 3>sinking through that cloud, creating a very strong downburst. Now

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<v Speaker 3>sometimes they go out the bottom of the cloud. When

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<v Speaker 3>they do that, they hit the ground. They're called microbursts.

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<v Speaker 3>So an aeroplane one minute will be an updraft, the

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<v Speaker 3>next minute will be in a downdraft, and next minute

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<v Speaker 3>later the air will be relatively smooth.

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<v Speaker 1>That's really interesting, and I think ultimately a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>our listeners at the moment are probably thinking about themselves

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<v Speaker 1>and their own air travel and perhaps a holiday they've

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<v Speaker 1>got coming up this year or next year. Is it

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<v Speaker 1>getting to the point where airlines should be enforcing seat

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<v Speaker 1>belt rules whenever you're in your seat, or do we

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<v Speaker 1>need to be thinking of extra safety precautions or are

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<v Speaker 1>you kind of maintaining that position you gave me earlier

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<v Speaker 1>that you know this is not out of the ordinary,

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<v Speaker 1>it's just in the media common sense.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean you need to get up and go to

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<v Speaker 3>the restroom. Occasionally when you're on a long site, I

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<v Speaker 3>like to stretch my legs to avoid DVT, for example.

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<v Speaker 3>So we do encourage people to get up and move

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<v Speaker 3>around a little bit. But the safety issue there was

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<v Speaker 3>that if everyone who was sitting had their seat belts

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<v Speaker 3>on it, then probably only the cabin crew and two

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<v Speaker 3>or three people who got up to go to the

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<v Speaker 3>restroom would be hurt. Now, most people are smart enough

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<v Speaker 3>not to get up in the middle of meal service

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<v Speaker 3>to try and get to the bathroom because the trolley's

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<v Speaker 3>in the way. Nearly all of the passengers during that

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<v Speaker 3>meal service should have had their seat belt on, even loosely,

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<v Speaker 3>and then most of them wouldn't have been hurt. Yes,

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<v Speaker 3>the poor old cabin crew would have still bounced off

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<v Speaker 3>the ceiling. Now, there is one subtle point to this

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<v Speaker 3>that I don't fully understand. It was in the afternoon.

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<v Speaker 3>If you've ever been in Singapore or Hong Kong, Singapore

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<v Speaker 3>particular well, which is right in the equator, you'll find

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<v Speaker 3>the big summer build ups happen. But Singapore ratio runs

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<v Speaker 3>between noon and about two pm. After two pm, the

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<v Speaker 3>big cloud build ups happen, and it gets quite intense

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<v Speaker 3>the afternoon from two pm to about six seven pm,

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<v Speaker 3>but also into the evening you get these huge cumulus

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<v Speaker 3>build ups. Everyone knows they happen. They happen regularly. Why

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<v Speaker 3>the crew didn't see these is a question that we'd

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<v Speaker 3>have to ask the crew to answer. They may not

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<v Speaker 3>have seen that on the radar. The radar might have

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<v Speaker 3>been showing no severe rainfall and those big talk cloud

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<v Speaker 3>tails off and you won't necessarily get rainfall. But why

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<v Speaker 3>they didn't look out the window and see this big

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<v Speaker 3>boiling mass of white cloud, We don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe Professor Middleton to end, I think we'd all benefit

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<v Speaker 1>from some reassuring words for somebody who's an expert in

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<v Speaker 1>this sector. Why should people feel good about flying?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, generally it's the safest form of transport. All pilots

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<v Speaker 3>of all airlines do a good job because you know

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<v Speaker 3>their own skinners on the line. The pilot was always

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<v Speaker 3>the first to the scene of the accident if there's

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<v Speaker 3>an accident, right, and they do their best to fly

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<v Speaker 3>safely as well. People should be confident just to sit

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<v Speaker 3>in an airplane, but do as they're told, get in

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<v Speaker 3>their seat, put the seat belt on, and enjoy the

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<v Speaker 3>fly as best they can. I would find the Singapore

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<v Speaker 3>Lines tomorrow as readily as I would have flown with

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<v Speaker 3>them last week. They're no less safe than they were

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<v Speaker 3>last week or any other airline.

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<v Speaker 1>Good to hear from an expert who's dedicated his career

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<v Speaker 1>to aviation. Professor Middleton, thank you so much for joining us.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks very much, Thanks so much for joining us on

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<v Speaker 1>the daily ours this morning, and I hope if you

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<v Speaker 1>are flying somewhere soon that you have a safe flight

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<v Speaker 1>and apparently always keep your seat belt on. We'll be

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<v Speaker 1>back again in your ears tomorrow morning. Until then, have

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<v Speaker 1>a great day. My name is Lily Madden and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>a proud Yunda Bunjelung Calcuttin woman from Gadaghl Country.

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<v Speaker 3>The Daily oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on

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<v Speaker 3>the lands of the Gadighl people and pays respect to

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<v Speaker 3>all Aboriginal and torrest Rate island and nations.

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<v Speaker 1>We pay our respects to the first peoples of these countries,

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<v Speaker 1>both past and present.