1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,000 Speaker 1: Now we know that Japanese forces are set to train 2 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:07,400 Speaker 1: alongside US Marines in northern Australia in twenty twenty five. 3 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:10,319 Speaker 1: That's what the Defense Minister Richard Marles said in an 4 00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: announcement in an announcement during high level talks hosted in 5 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: Darwin on Sunday. Now, the US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin 6 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 1: flew into Australia in what was expected to be the 7 00:00:20,079 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 1: final visit here by a senior Biden administration official. It 8 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: is indeed, amid well some uncertainty over the future direction 9 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 1: of aucast when Donald Trump returns to the White House 10 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:36,160 Speaker 1: in January. Now, mister Austin and mister Males sat down 11 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 1: with their Japanese counterpart for a trilateral meeting which focused 12 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: on regional security. Now joining me on the line is 13 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 1: doctor John Coyn, the National the director of National Security 14 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 1: Programs at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. I believe he 15 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:57,400 Speaker 1: is coming to me very early in the morning over 16 00:00:57,480 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 1: in Dubai. Good morning to you, doctor Coin. 17 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 2: Good morning Katie. How are you going. 18 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: I'm very well. Thank you so very much for having 19 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 1: a chat with us this morning. Now, John, what did 20 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: you make of the trilateral talks held in Darwin on 21 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 1: the week and you know what does it signify. 22 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 2: Look, you know, let's take the really positive thing about 23 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,679 Speaker 2: this for territory. And so last couple of years, everyone 24 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 2: keeps on saying, whether it's from in our newsborn papers, 25 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 2: or whether it's online or whether it's radio, how important 26 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 2: the Northern Territory is. We just had a trilateral with 27 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:40,959 Speaker 2: defense ministers from the US, from Australia and Japan meet 28 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 2: and meet in Darwin, which is fantastic. It says, it 29 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 2: reinforces that message of the importance of Northern Territory. The 30 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 2: other one is is it's a fantastic news in terms 31 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 2: of both the alliance with Japan or should I say 32 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 2: cooperation with Japan and the US. So what we're going 33 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 2: to have is troops training together in Northern Australia, which 34 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 2: is fantastic, and it'll have a positive impact in terms 35 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 2: of the Northern Territory economy as well. 36 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 1: It's obviously a big step. I mean, mister Miles said 37 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 1: that there will be those regular deployments as you've just 38 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,079 Speaker 1: sort of spoken about, and it's also going to see 39 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 1: the Japan's amphibious rapid Deployment Brigade. I mean, John, lots 40 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 1: of US are probably wondering exactly what that is. But 41 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 1: they're going to be training alongside the US Marines. It 42 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 1: does seem like quite a significant step. 43 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 2: Look, it is a significant step. But look, you know 44 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 2: if we think about it, and I should pause there 45 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 2: because you gave me that queue to explain it. So, okay, 46 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:47,119 Speaker 2: amphibious capability. So what we're talking about is Japanese Marines 47 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 2: work in that amphibious environment. So what they're doing is 48 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 2: they're doing landings from sea to land. Very difficult for 49 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 2: the Japanese to do that sort of training in Japan 50 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 2: for a whole range of reasons, not the least of 51 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 2: which is a lack of space. So it's a real 52 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 2: opportunity for them to come out to Australia and do training. Now, 53 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:14,079 Speaker 2: if we look to North Queensland, there's a training agreement 54 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 2: between Singapore and Australia. They've spent a large amount of 55 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 2: money on infrastructure, they do a lot of training the 56 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:24,920 Speaker 2: Singaporeans in North Queensland. It brings a lot of money 57 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 2: to the economy and we're sort of looking at the 58 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 2: possibility of the same thing now. 59 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: John no doubt. You know, it is expected that it's 60 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 1: going to probably be quite the economic boost for Northern Australia, 61 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 1: particularly the Northern Territory and Darwin. I guess I ask 62 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 1: you this question very often. I mean, does it put 63 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 1: Darwin at a greater risk as well? Potentially? 64 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 2: Look, I guess there's a couple of different things to 65 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 2: approach this with. The first one is everyone assumes that 66 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 2: in a conflict between two major powers in our region. 67 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 2: And I always say this, I don't think think I'm 68 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 2: not a doom sayer. I don't think that's inevitable that 69 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 2: somehow we're not already won't already be our target. So 70 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 2: it's sort of a presupposed of something. Secondly, you know, 71 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:16,919 Speaker 2: if you think about this and really plain language, So 72 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:19,919 Speaker 2: if someone threatens you and says if you do a 73 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:24,840 Speaker 2: I'm going to do something to you, you know what's 74 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 2: the great austrain way of responding to bullies? That's not 75 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 2: the appropriate way. So should we be afraid by the 76 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:35,719 Speaker 2: potential of being punished by another country for continuing to 77 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:38,600 Speaker 2: have a great relationship and a strategic alliance. It's one 78 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 2: of our closest security partners. So you know, I guess 79 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 2: my thing where we're approaching this badly. It's sort of 80 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 2: the very fact that we're talking that we could be 81 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 2: a target because we're working with one of our strategic 82 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:56,559 Speaker 2: partners and one of our allies. That to me says 83 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 2: that the environment that we're living in terms of that 84 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 2: international relations has really changed. 85 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 1: Now when you look Ash, I mean, the last time 86 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: you and I spoke, it was before the US election 87 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: that's now happened. When you look at the fact that 88 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 1: Donald Trump is now back in power, what kind of 89 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:17,599 Speaker 1: difference do you think that makes in terms of the 90 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 1: Northern territories relationship with the US if. 91 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:25,720 Speaker 2: Any I don't think personally it will make a difference. 92 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 2: And here's my rationale and a caveat with the first caveat. First, 93 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:32,839 Speaker 2: with the fact that you know, there can be no 94 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:38,799 Speaker 2: doubt that Donald Trump presidency can have moments of random 95 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:43,359 Speaker 2: decision making. Okay, but here we go. First off, Donald 96 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 2: Trump has an aversion to countries that are freelos and 97 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 2: don't pay their own way. Australia has worked with the 98 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:56,279 Speaker 2: Americans and deployed and spilt Australian blood, spent Australian treasure 99 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:00,160 Speaker 2: in every major conflict with them since World War One. 100 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 2: Number Two, Trump has an issue in Europe because he 101 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 2: feels that the European countries that are members of NATO 102 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:13,480 Speaker 2: are freeloading, they don't pay their way. Number Three, he's 103 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:18,159 Speaker 2: tiresome of the conflict in the Middle East and the 104 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 2: Americans spending blood and treat are there. He's still for, 105 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 2: He's for. He still believes there's great competition between China 106 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 2: and the US. And if you look at already there 107 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:34,280 Speaker 2: his discussions and media releases around tariffs, that shows you 108 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 2: his interest. So he has an interest in the Indo 109 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 2: Pacific region. His the US Department Offense needs Northern Australia, 110 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 2: and he views Australia very positively as we're not freeloaders. 111 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:51,240 Speaker 2: So I don't think it will change. 112 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, right, And so in terms of I mean the 113 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 1: trilateral talks and the changing of the of the changing 114 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 1: of the president, we know that that's sort of going. 115 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 1: The handover happens in January. Do what kind of impact 116 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: or what kind of maybe impacts not the right word, 117 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 1: what do you think it all means for the Northern 118 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 1: Territory or Northern Australia more generally. 119 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 2: Look globally, we've lived through one Donald Trump presidency and 120 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 2: during that period of time we have very much seen 121 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 2: that at times he can make what would appear to 122 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 2: be very random decisions. That said, we survived a four 123 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 2: year Donald Trump presidency and we saw from an Australian perspective, 124 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 2: more of the same. Not in terms of a continuation 125 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 2: of the Northern Territory. The US Department defenses engagement with 126 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 2: the Northern Territory. So you know, I think from our 127 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 2: perspective we can expect some continuity. We can expect some 128 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 2: bumps in the road, perhaps because of the nature of 129 00:07:55,720 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 2: Donald Trump, but in terms of the US presence in 130 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 2: North Australia, I think that will remain pretty much unchanged. 131 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 2: The broader, probable broad challenge of August. There's some doomsayers 132 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 2: running around saying that Donald Trump presidency will mend the 133 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 2: end of August. I don't think that's the case, and 134 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:19,240 Speaker 2: certainly there's not those noises being made. 135 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, Dr John Coyn. I always appreciate your time, mate, 136 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 1: particularly when I know you're busy, busy and it is 137 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 1: very early in the morning over there in Jubai. Thank 138 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 1: you very much for still having a chain with us today. 139 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 2: You're a legend all How could I give up a 140 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 2: three thirty came discussion in the morning. 141 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 1: It's what everyone wants to do at three thirty am. 142 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:47,319 Speaker 1: Good on you, John, Thank you.