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Speaker 1: If you want to know what's happening on the local

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Speaker 1: political landscape, Katie Wolf has it covered on three sixty.

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Speaker 2: Every one is listening Mix one oh four point nine.

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Speaker 1: We know that the US wants to store defense equipment

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Speaker 1: in Australia's top end. It is all of course under

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Speaker 1: a bilateral Force posture review to better it prepare US

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Speaker 1: and our allies, I guess for growing strategic threats from China.

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Speaker 1: That is according to a report in The Australian earlier

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Speaker 1: this week. Now, in an interview, acting US Ambassador Mike

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Speaker 1: Goldburn said it just makes sense to ford deploy US

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Speaker 1: war stocks in Australia given US bases in Guam and

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Speaker 1: elsewhere in the region were within reach of Chinese missiles.

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Speaker 2: Now joining me on the line.

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Speaker 1: To talk more about this is the head of the

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Speaker 1: Northern Australia Strategic Policy Center and the head of Strategic

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Speaker 1: Policing and Law Enforcement, doctor John Coin.

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Speaker 2: Good morning to you, John.

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Speaker 3: Good morning, Cody.

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Speaker 1: Great have you on the show again. We really appreciate

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Speaker 1: your time. John, talk us through. We know that there

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Speaker 1: was this report in The Australian earlier in the week

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Speaker 1: and it is really looking more closely about the US

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Speaker 1: sort of forward planning, I guess when it comes to

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Speaker 1: their alliances with the likes of Australia, but certainly in

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Speaker 1: the top end of the northern territory.

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Speaker 2: Is this a move that needs to happen?

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Speaker 3: Look, I think it is number one fact, which is

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Speaker 3: the level of uncertainty in our strategic lends. Actually, for

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Speaker 3: the average punter, what that means is is that five

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Speaker 3: years ago we could sort of reasonably understand what all

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Speaker 3: the major powers and non state actors, even if they

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Speaker 3: were going to do bad things. We have a reasonable

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Speaker 3: understanding of the ween and what now we're seeing a

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Speaker 3: sort of upheaval of all the rules of the game.

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Speaker 3: So what we're seeing is and this is pushing aside

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Speaker 3: drama like drums of war, it's just saying, okay, there's

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Speaker 3: unpredictability here and we need to be more prepared for

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Speaker 3: all that. So this announcement is aligned with that.

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Speaker 2: John, What has caused the unpredictability?

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Speaker 1: I mean, is it as a result of COVID and

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Speaker 1: you know Australia sort of pushing back saying that they

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Speaker 1: did want that investigation into where COVID began.

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Speaker 2: Is that what really kicked it all? Off, do you reckon?

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Speaker 3: Look not at all? Okay, So that made us all

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Speaker 3: more aware of it. Right, This gradual, gradual, sort of

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Speaker 3: upheaval of the system started well before that. What we've

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Speaker 3: seen is a really active Chinese commerce party. We've seen

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Speaker 3: them doing all manner of things in the South China

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Speaker 3: see building Ireland, putting new military capabilities, rapidly increasing the

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Speaker 3: capability of their defense force or their armed forces. We've

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Speaker 3: seen them engaged all across the region and using a

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Speaker 3: range of soft and hard powers. They're using diplomacy and

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Speaker 3: economics to get their way. When it all started to

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Speaker 3: go really bad for Australia was when Australia started to

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Speaker 3: assert its own right to make the decisions. And I

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Speaker 3: think then what happened is is China sort of views

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Speaker 3: Australia as a contagion. It doesn't want it doesn't want

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Speaker 3: the world to go that way. So you know, when

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Speaker 3: we're sort of looking at things like COVID, when we're

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Speaker 3: pushing back all those punishments, that's why we're getting your

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Speaker 3: lists of fourteen demands cades.

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Speaker 1: When realistically, I guess we're just standing up for our rights.

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Speaker 3: Look, I think that's the case, and I think this

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Speaker 3: is where you know, the questions the average Australian. So

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of people turning around saying, you know, hey,

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Speaker 3: look we should stop pushing up on the on the Chinese.

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Speaker 3: Let's be quite honest. Last week, in one of the

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Speaker 3: sort of state owned media outlets last five day, we

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Speaker 3: were told with no with certainty that should Australia be

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Speaker 3: involved in defending Taiwan, they would send missiles, strategic missiles

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Speaker 3: to Australia. Wow. So that sort of you know, and

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Speaker 3: let's not forget the same media piece was the ones

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Speaker 3: who put as a member propaganda a mocked up photo

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Speaker 3: of Australia and Australian sold just slitting a child through.

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Speaker 3: So these are the sorts of things that you know,

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Speaker 3: very aggressive behavior.

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Speaker 1: So John, where does that leave us here in the

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Speaker 1: top end, because we know that we are very strategically important.

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Speaker 3: Look, you know, there's a I guess a silver lining

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Speaker 3: to this. So since Federation people have always said the

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Speaker 3: Northern territory is important, they just didn't couldn't for the

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Speaker 3: most part, figure out how and what to do there. So,

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Speaker 3: you know, to be quite honest, and most listeners of

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Speaker 3: any age will understand all of the failed policy efforts

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Speaker 3: that have occurred from the Federation, from the Common Government

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Speaker 3: since federation. In the Northern Australia, this is it a

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Speaker 3: much sharper focus. People are asking the questions and certainly

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Speaker 3: the fact that the Americans are looking at putting things

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Speaker 3: like i'm an investment of two hundred million dollars into

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Speaker 3: fuel security. What it means is there's going to be

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Speaker 3: lots of investment in infrastructure in terms of defense capability,

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Speaker 3: and that means jobs in the Northern Australia. So, for instance,

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Speaker 3: if an armored brigade worth the equipment of USRM brigade

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Speaker 3: worth of equipment we're put into the Northern Territory, you're

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Speaker 3: talking about millions, millions of dollars of infrastructure work, lots

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Speaker 3: of immediate jobs and then lots of secondary jobs in

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Speaker 3: maintaining that.

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Speaker 1: John doesn't mean though, that it also puts us at

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Speaker 1: greater risk.

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Speaker 3: Last Bright agg Akkati a very clear statement which was

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Speaker 3: if Australia was to be involved in the defense of Taiwan,

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Speaker 3: the Chinese government was sent a missile strategic missile strikes

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Speaker 3: our way. So I think we're already at risk if

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Speaker 3: there is a conflict. The main aim of the game

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Speaker 3: here is to be prepared for a conflict and also

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Speaker 3: on the other side of it is to avoid it

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Speaker 3: at all costs without giving up our values and giving

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Speaker 3: up what's right.

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Speaker 2: And I mean, I guess that's the end game here,

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Speaker 2: isn't it?

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Speaker 1: Like the Australian government doesn't want to be in a

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Speaker 1: situation where you know, where there are missiles being fired

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Speaker 1: at at Australia. But we do need to make sure

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Speaker 1: that we bolster our forces. We do need to make

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Speaker 1: sure that we are prepared for anything.

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Speaker 2: I guess, But.

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Speaker 3: Looks that's exactly right. It's all about being prepared. You know.

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Speaker 3: There was a so the eighties. You know, one of

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Speaker 3: my mentors or one of the people I look up

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Speaker 3: to in terms of strategy, Professor Paul Did wrote the

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Speaker 3: seminal works on how to Defending Australia and at the

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Speaker 3: time one of his assumptions was always had more than

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Speaker 3: ten years notice of a major conflict. Last year with

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Speaker 3: a Defense Strategic Update was the first time since then

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Speaker 3: where we've said we're under ten years to prepare for that,

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Speaker 3: and that's a big thing that we need to realize.

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Speaker 3: So you know that uncertain. It doesn't mean we're going

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Speaker 3: to go to war. It just means we're not going

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Speaker 3: to get this long warning that occurs. Yeah, so you know,

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Speaker 3: things are certainly changed. That we also should remember in

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Speaker 3: terms of this imbalance and the behavior of China. Could

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Speaker 3: you ever imagine an Australian government sending a list of

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Speaker 3: fourteen ultimatums to the Chinese government? Could you ever imagine

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Speaker 3: the Australian federal government going to the local temperature in

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Speaker 3: China and making a signing an MoU agreement with them?

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Speaker 3: You know, and I think we all know the answer

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Speaker 3: to that.

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Speaker 1: No, but that's right. But they're certainly throwing their weight

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Speaker 1: around to some degree.

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Speaker 2: Aren't they.

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Speaker 3: That's exactly right. So I mean that some of this

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Speaker 3: and you can't blame him in some ways. We've a

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Speaker 3: very successful economical or a lot of ways in Australia.

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Speaker 3: We've had thirty years of economic growth, a lot of

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Speaker 3: that in the last decade or so. We're directly related

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Speaker 3: to the growth of China. And people, of course want

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Speaker 3: to go back to the way things because a lot

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Speaker 3: of people are making a lot of money from that.

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Speaker 3: I'm not so sure that we can go back to that. Well.

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Speaker 1: I tell you what, every time I catch up with you,

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Speaker 1: doctor John Con I always think to myself, I wouldn't mind,

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Speaker 1: or I'd.

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Speaker 2: Like I feel like I could talk to you for

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Speaker 2: an hour.

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Speaker 1: I feel like there's so much more that could be discussed.

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Speaker 1: I really appreciate your time and I always appreciate your insights.

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Speaker 3: No, thank you very much, Paddy. It's always a pleasure.

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Speaker 2: Thanks, thank you, thanks so much for your time.

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Speaker 1: And I tell you what, I am always quite fascinated

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Speaker 1: with those discussions with doctor John Coyn. And like I said,

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Speaker 1: it does follow on from that report in the Australian

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Speaker 1: earlier in the week, we're in an interview the acting

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Speaker 1: US Ambassador Mike Goldman said it just makes sense to

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Speaker 1: Ford deploy US warstocks in Australia given the US bases

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Speaker 1: in Guam and elsewhere in the region were within reach

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Speaker 1: of Chinese missiles.

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Speaker 2: And you know, like you've heard there though.

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Speaker 1: From doctor Coin, it's not a situation where we're thinking, okay,

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Speaker 1: you know, we need to go for it. The Australian

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Speaker 1: government is certainly doing everything they can to try to,

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Speaker 1: you know, to manage this relationship in a peaceful way,