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Speaker 1: My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a proud Arunda

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Speaker 1: Bunjelung Cargottin woman from Gadigul country. The Daily oz acknowledges

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Speaker 1: that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the

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Speaker 1: Gadigol people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and torrestrate

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Speaker 1: island and nations. We pay our respects to the first

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Speaker 1: peoples of these countries, both past and present.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, and welcome to the Daily os It's Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: the twenty fifth of July. I'm Sam Kazlowski.

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Speaker 3: I'm Zara Seidler.

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Speaker 2: It's been hard to ignore the headlines coming out of

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Speaker 2: the Northern Hemisphere in the last few weeks.

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Speaker 4: A fierce heat wave is gripping southern Europe. The United

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Speaker 4: States has really struggled.

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Speaker 3: Temperatures have been extremely high.

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Speaker 2: In Italy, temperatures could reach nearly forty nine.

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Speaker 5: Degrees, this town in northwest China recording a temperature of

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Speaker 5: over fifty two degrees.

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Speaker 2: As well as heat waves, this Northern Hemisphere summer has

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Speaker 2: brought catastrophic floods, tornadoes and fires. In today's deep dive,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna ask expert what this all means and if

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Speaker 2: we can expect similar events in the upcoming Australian summer.

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Speaker 2: But first AA there could be some changes for casual workers.

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Speaker 3: It could be eligible casual workers could become permanent employees

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Speaker 3: under a federal government proposal. The plan would give casuals

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Speaker 3: who are consistently completing full time hours the same entitlements

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Speaker 3: as full time colleagues, things like holiday and sick leave.

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Speaker 3: The government believes the proposal could mean job security for

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Speaker 3: some eight hundred and fifty thousand casually employed Australians.

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Speaker 2: The Australian Federal Police have charged two men for the

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Speaker 2: import of two hundred and forty seven kilograms of cocaine.

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Speaker 2: The drugs were seized from a yacht moored in Townsville.

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Speaker 2: The men appeared in the Brisbane Court yesterday and are

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Speaker 2: both facing life imprisonment.

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Speaker 3: A man has been taken to hospital after being bidden

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Speaker 3: by a shark in Western Australia. The man suffered non

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Speaker 3: life threatening injuries. Local beaches were closed following the attack.

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Speaker 2: And the good news. Two thirteen year old skateboarders from

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Speaker 2: the Gold Coast have won gold medals at the X Games.

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Speaker 2: Chloe Cavell won the Women's Street competition and Arisa Chu

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Speaker 2: claims the women's vert title. The first week of this

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Speaker 2: month was the hottest week on record. That's according to

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Speaker 2: the World Meteorological Organization. But the Northern Hemisphere has continued

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Speaker 2: to experience extreme weather conditions in the week since. Now.

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Speaker 2: To help us understand what's going on and whether we

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Speaker 2: can expect a similar summer here in Australia, I had

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Speaker 2: a chat to Associate Professor Sarah Perkins Kirkpatrick. She's an

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Speaker 2: expert in climate science who specializes in extreme events and

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Speaker 2: heat waves. Sarah, thanks so much for joining us on

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Speaker 2: the Daily OS this morning.

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Speaker 4: My pleasure, Thank you for having me.

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Speaker 2: We've had a lot of stories run on TDA over

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Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks about this really extreme weather

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Speaker 2: we're seeing in the Northern Hemisphere. We've got heat waves

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Speaker 2: from the US and Europe, but also across Asia. Can

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Speaker 2: you give me a overview of what's happening around the

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Speaker 2: world right now.

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Speaker 5: Yes, pretty much the Northern Hemisphere that they're in their summer,

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Speaker 5: of course, so we do expect warmer weather to occur

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Speaker 5: during summer. That goes for here as well, but they're

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Speaker 5: seeing some really, really, really hot conditions. So you mentioned

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Speaker 5: basically all the places that are experiencing those extreme heat

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Speaker 5: waves right now. Europe is just in basically this state

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Speaker 5: of perpetual heat wave right now. It's still going to

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Speaker 5: last for another couple of weeks. Same with the western

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Speaker 5: part of the USA. They're in a bit of a

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Speaker 5: phase lock with heat waves as well. And we've just

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Speaker 5: come off the back of some pretty intense heat waves

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Speaker 5: over parts of Asia.

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Speaker 4: Two.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, like it is summer, but a lot of

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Speaker 5: these locations are also saying increased wildfire risk as well,

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Speaker 5: and some really really really bad fires that's been playing

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Speaker 5: out in Greece just over the last couple of days,

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Speaker 5: for example.

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Speaker 2: Did the scientific community see this coming?

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Speaker 5: Well, yes, So we can't say, oh, you know, this

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Speaker 5: summer will be like a super duper record breaking event.

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Speaker 5: We can't even say that about next summer or even

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Speaker 5: fire summers just just past. But what we can say

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Speaker 5: is it fits within the trend and our understanding. So

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Speaker 5: for many years, even since I was in high school,

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Speaker 5: we've known about climate change. No, ever since I was

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Speaker 5: in primary school, actually, we've known about climate change and

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Speaker 5: the effect it has on extreme weather events. So seeing

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Speaker 5: these heat waves and these bush fires play out year

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Speaker 5: after year over a long time period. That fits in

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Speaker 5: with what we know about climate change, and that's what

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Speaker 5: we expect to see. So for someone like me, these

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Speaker 5: events aren't surprising. We kind of expected that this trend

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Speaker 5: would continue because we're not doing enough to mitigate that trend.

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Speaker 5: But in saying that we can't forecast how hot these

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Speaker 5: seasons will be, when they do a cour, we just

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Speaker 5: know they're going to be quite bad.

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Speaker 2: And do we know that the extreme weather across the

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Speaker 2: northern hemisphere is or related to one particular scientific phenomenon

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Speaker 2: or are there different things happening in say South Korea

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Speaker 2: with floods to North America with Death Valley heat getting

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Speaker 2: up to you know, fifty two to fifty three degrees.

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Speaker 5: Yep, So it depends on the scale that you're looking at.

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Speaker 5: As I mentioned, like, change is happening, and we do expect,

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Speaker 5: especially in extreme temperature, we do expect heat waves to

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Speaker 5: be hotter for longer and occur more frequently. And even

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Speaker 5: with extreme rainfall events, there is some evidence to suggest

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Speaker 5: that because the atmosphere can hold more moisture when we

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Speaker 5: do have a rainfall event, more moisture or more rain

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Speaker 5: can fall out the sky, so they'll be more extreme.

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Speaker 5: That's in the science of climate change. But then there's

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Speaker 5: also local scale weather phenomena that create those processes to happen.

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Speaker 5: So when we have a heat wave, for example, we

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Speaker 5: have that with a really big high pressure system, and

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Speaker 5: if you ever look at a weather map, that's basically

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Speaker 5: the age symbol in the middle of the map. That

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Speaker 5: happens anywhere when you get a heat wave and it

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Speaker 5: kind of sits there and you just bake under that

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Speaker 5: high pressure system. Whereas with rainfall events that's due to

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Speaker 5: a low pressure weather system and things like tropical cyclones

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Speaker 5: which are in hance slow pressure systems. So it depends

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Speaker 5: what's going on at.

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Speaker 4: The local scale as well as what's going.

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Speaker 5: On in the broader scale in terms of climate change too.

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Speaker 5: They interact with one another. It's not just one or

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Speaker 5: the other. So you can't get a heat wave without

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Speaker 5: a high pressure system, for example. But they're being exacerbated.

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Speaker 5: There is being exacerbated because of climate change.

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Speaker 2: So the big question on everybody's lips here is you

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Speaker 2: know we're cold right now.

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Speaker 4: I'm in Canber it's freezing in the.

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Speaker 2: Warming over here in Sydney. Is it is damn cold,

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Speaker 2: and we tend to not really think about summer until

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Speaker 2: it's here. Yes, are we destined for a summer emblematic

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Speaker 2: of what we're seeing in northern Hemisphere right now?

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Speaker 4: God, it's hard to draw such a straight comparison.

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Speaker 5: And if I had a dollar for every time I've

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Speaker 5: been asked that question over the last few weeks, I

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Speaker 5: could retire. It's not looking good. So we can't say, like,

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Speaker 5: just because Europe has had this bumper of a hot,

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Speaker 5: hot season, that's exactly what's going to happen here too.

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Speaker 5: In terms of background climate change. Yes, we're heading exactly

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Speaker 5: the same way, with the exception of the fact that

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Speaker 5: Europe is warming twice as fast as the global average,

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Speaker 5: so you know they're heating up more quickly effectively, especially

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Speaker 5: when we're talking about extremes.

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Speaker 2: Why is that.

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Speaker 4: It's because it's a land mass.

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Speaker 5: So if you think about the Mediterranean basin effectively, in

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Speaker 5: all the countries in the Mediterranean region, it's obviously land,

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Speaker 5: but then it's surrounded by land as well, and land

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Speaker 5: heats up more fast. Sorry, let me say that in

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Speaker 5: proper English land heats heats up faster than ocean, right,

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Speaker 5: And given that the ocean that the world is seventy

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Speaker 5: five percent ocean. A lot of when we talk about

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Speaker 5: global average temperature, a lot of that temperature is taken

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Speaker 5: too account what's going over the ocean. And because Europe

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Speaker 5: is this big land mass, it's heating up faster than

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Speaker 5: the global average.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so we can't draw a direct connection between the

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Speaker 2: Northern Hemisphere heat waves and a bad heat wave summer

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Speaker 2: for Australia, But the macro trend is that it's going

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Speaker 2: to get hot. Is there anything that we can be

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Speaker 2: doing short term in terms of risk mitigation?

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Speaker 5: Oh?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So what's needing more attention in your perspective?

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Speaker 5: So I guess like one thing to kind of state

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Speaker 5: before I go into that is we have just had

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Speaker 5: three wet summers and reasonably cold summers because we're in

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Speaker 5: a phenomena called Lannina, which effectively means for most of

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Speaker 5: Australia it's cooler and wetter than average. Out of that

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Speaker 5: and we've kind of, I think forgotten a little bit

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Speaker 5: about how bad our summers can be. And even though

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Speaker 5: the Black Summer had a huge imprint on most of us,

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Speaker 5: that was some time ago now, so we've kind of

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Speaker 5: lost I think a bit of our social adaptive capacity there.

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Speaker 5: So we need to keep in mind that, yes, you know,

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Speaker 5: we can have these really bad summers here, and we

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Speaker 5: need to prepare for that by thinking about, well, okay,

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Speaker 5: summer's coming, Yes it's in a few months, But what

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Speaker 5: do I have around me to keep cool? Do I

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Speaker 5: have reliable air conditioning? And how much can I can

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Speaker 5: I afford to run that as well? I think that's

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Speaker 5: another important question these days. What can I use instead?

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Speaker 5: Fans are quite effective, so you know, go by yourself

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Speaker 5: a fan. Now, think about putting together a heat wave plan,

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Speaker 5: response plan, or even a bush fire plan if you

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Speaker 5: live in a bush fire prone area, to work out

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Speaker 5: what you would do in the event that these events occur.

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Speaker 5: Can you buy plants or shade your garden to keep

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Speaker 5: your local environment cool? Where might you go if all

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Speaker 5: of your other options fail and you can't keep cooled

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Speaker 5: during a heat wave? Do you have somewhere you can

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Speaker 5: go if a bush fire occurs? Or do you have

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Speaker 5: a way of keeping yourself and your family safe or

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Speaker 5: your house safe? Thinking forward and planning forward is I

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Speaker 5: think one of the biggest things we can do to

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Speaker 5: mitigate our risk here. There's also things we can do

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Speaker 5: on the long term, such as changing how our culture behaves,

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Speaker 5: how our infrastructure copes, so maybe retrofitting structures, for example,

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Speaker 5: giving hospitals more resources so they can cope with the

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Speaker 5: influx of people who will be affected by these types

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Speaker 5: of disasters, even changing how we live and work so

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Speaker 5: we're not out in the heat or not as exposed

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Speaker 5: to these types of events in the future. So it

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Speaker 5: just depends really on what scale, you know, we're currently

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Speaker 5: talking about.

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Speaker 2: I always find it really interesting that a lot of

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Speaker 2: the discussions around heat waves becoming dangerous tend to happen

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Speaker 2: around major events over summer. So it's either you know,

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Speaker 2: it stopped some sport or it stopped a concert. Are

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Speaker 2: we waiting for one of these events to get canceled

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Speaker 2: to really understand how bad this is?

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Speaker 5: You know, if that was the case, that would have

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Speaker 5: already happened, because that kind of happened with the Australian

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Speaker 5: Open a number of years ago, where there was players

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Speaker 5: literally refusing to play and I don't blame them, or

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Speaker 5: passing out and hallucinating and seeing snoopy on the tennis court.

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Speaker 5: That was a wake up call in some ways, because

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Speaker 5: they do kind of have a heat health plan. Now,

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Speaker 5: it got a lot of press around the world like hey, Australia,

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Speaker 5: what are you doing? You're torturing these people, But it

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Speaker 5: hasn't been enough to trigger a huge response. Yes, it's

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Speaker 5: triggered some sort of localized response, but here we are

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Speaker 5: still having the Australian Open in the middle of summer.

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Speaker 5: We're still out drinking beers on Australia Day or around

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Speaker 5: other events during summer. It hasn't changed it enough. So

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Speaker 5: and the same with Black Summer, right, like we had

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Speaker 5: all these fires and all these heat and it was

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Speaker 5: unprecedented and it was catastrophic, But here we are we've

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Speaker 5: gone kind of back to forgetting what that's like. So

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Speaker 5: in some ways, yes, these triggers do help, and that's

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Speaker 5: you know, that's important. It's disappointing, but it is important.

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Speaker 5: But what is it going to take for us to

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Speaker 5: really do something that's permanent change and you know, change

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Speaker 5: for us all, not just a subgroup.

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Speaker 2: Is there anything we can think about to end that

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Speaker 2: is leaving you with a little bit of hope?

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Speaker 4: Let me pause there. This is yeah, Look, sometimes it's

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Speaker 4: hard to have hope.

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Speaker 5: I will admit that, and perhaps the older I get,

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Speaker 5: maybe the more jaded I get, I find this a

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Speaker 5: harder question to answer. It's not that I don't have hope,

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Speaker 5: because I wouldn't do my job if I didn't have hope.

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Speaker 4: It'd be a very hard job to do if I

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Speaker 4: didn't have hope.

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Speaker 5: I guess I have hope that we have actually in

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Speaker 5: past one point five degrees global woman lthough we haven't

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Speaker 5: technically reached that yet, We've done far too much damage

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Speaker 5: for that to even be something we can stabilize at.

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Speaker 4: We have mitigated against our worst case scenario.

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Speaker 5: We no longer use our worst case scenario in climate

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Speaker 5: projections as the you know, this is what it's actually

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Speaker 5: going to be like that that's a plus. We have

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Speaker 5: done something we obviously need to do more. We obviously

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Speaker 5: need to reduce our emissions more and adapt as well

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Speaker 5: as reduce emissions. But it's not going to be as

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Speaker 5: bad as we thought five to ten years ago. So

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Speaker 5: we can do it. We can do it, and we

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Speaker 5: have the technology now. We have enough technology that at

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Speaker 5: the individual level we can do things like put solar

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Speaker 5: panels on our roofs or if you can afford it,

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Speaker 5: of course, or buy an electric car. We can reduce

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Speaker 5: our green house gas emissions. So the technology is so

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Speaker 5: much better than what it.

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Speaker 4: Used to be. We just need to move faster than

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Speaker 4: what we're currently moving.

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Speaker 2: Sarah, thanks so much for joining us on the Daily

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Speaker 2: OS today.

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Speaker 4: Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for joining us today on the Daily ODS. If

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