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Speaker 1: Already and this is the Daily This is the Daily OS.

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Speaker 2: Oh now it makes sense. Good morning and welcome to

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Speaker 2: the Daily OS. It's Tuesday, the twenty fourth of March.

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Speaker 2: I'm Emma Gillespie, I'm Billy fit Simon's. Over the weekend,

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Speaker 2: South Australians voted in a state election and Labor was

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Speaker 2: returned to government with a decisive victory under Premier Peter Malinowskis.

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Speaker 2: Now that was to be expected, but the bigger surprise

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Speaker 2: that has come out of this poll is that the

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Speaker 2: Liberals suffered another historic defeat and a party that barely

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Speaker 2: existed in the state four years ago has now finished second.

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Speaker 2: One Nation. Now this all comes ahead of another important poll,

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Speaker 2: a federal by election in a historically safe Liberal seat,

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Speaker 2: as attention turns to whether or not the Libs can

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Speaker 2: hold on there. Today we are going to explore the

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Speaker 2: rise of one Nation and where Australian politics is headed.

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Speaker 1: I know we're going to focus on one Nation, but

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Speaker 1: I think before we get to that, we should look

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Speaker 1: at the overall results of this state election in South Australia.

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Speaker 1: You said that it was a landslide victory Labor.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. I mean the short version is that labor One,

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Speaker 2: Labor One big Malanowskas has been re elected to a

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Speaker 2: second term as premier and at the time of recording,

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Speaker 2: counting is still continuing, it should be noted, but at

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Speaker 2: this point Labour is on track to win thirty three

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Speaker 2: of the forty seven Lower House seats in South Australian Parliament.

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Speaker 2: Now the headline really though, is what happened to the

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Speaker 2: Liberals and One Nation. So the Libs finished third on

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Speaker 2: a primary vote. That is the first time in South

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Speaker 2: Australian history that the Liberal Party has not been in

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Speaker 2: the top two on primary vote, and it's the first

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Speaker 2: time that One Nation has surged to second.

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Speaker 1: I think this is important to understand the primary vote

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Speaker 1: because it's how the Australian system is designed. That just

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Speaker 1: because you win twenty percent of votes, for example, that

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Speaker 1: doesn't mean that you win twenty percent of seats in parliament.

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Speaker 1: And that can be confusing because even though One Nation

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Speaker 1: one more votes on primary, they actually ended up with

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Speaker 1: less seats in Parliament than.

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Speaker 2: The Liberal Party.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all that to say, I think we should explain

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Speaker 1: what the primary vote is.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so you know, when you vote in an election,

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Speaker 2: you get a ballot, and you will number on that ballot.

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Speaker 2: You know, let's say from one to five, if there

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Speaker 2: are five candidates listed on that ballot, and you will

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Speaker 2: write in order of one to five your preference vote basically,

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Speaker 2: so one being the party that you most want to win,

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Speaker 2: five in this instance being the least. So primary vote

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Speaker 2: is basically the number of people that listed that party

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Speaker 2: as number one, So the number of people who put

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Speaker 2: your party first. Now, in the South Australian state election,

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Speaker 2: One Nation picked up around two twenty two percent of

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Speaker 2: that primary vote, so more than one in five voters

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Speaker 2: in South Australia put a one next to One Nation

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Speaker 2: on their voting ballot.

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Speaker 1: And that's massive because they are a minor party. So

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Speaker 1: to have one in five people saying they're my first preference, yep,

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Speaker 1: that hasn't happened before, not just in South Australia, but

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Speaker 1: in any other state election in Australia, that's for sure.

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Speaker 2: And the Liberal Party meanwhile picked up about nineteen percent

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Speaker 2: of the primary vote, which is underperforming for a major

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Speaker 2: party in a two party system. Yes, South Australia doesn't

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Speaker 2: have a Liberal national coalition. There is a national party

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Speaker 2: in South Australia, but it's not a formalized coalition as

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Speaker 2: in other states and territories and indeed in Canberra. But

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Speaker 2: the Nationals did also slump at this election in Essay,

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Speaker 2: so they slumped zero point three percent to zero point

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Speaker 2: one percent of the primary So a really really tiny

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Speaker 2: vote there for the Nationals.

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Speaker 1: Sorry, So the Nationals picked up zero point one percent

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Speaker 1: of the primary vote in South Australia.

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Speaker 2: Yeap, compared to z zero point four percent at the

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Speaker 2: last election.

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Speaker 1: I didn't realize they had such a small presence in

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Speaker 1: South Australia.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Liberal Party in South Australia, really is it

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Speaker 2: when it comes to the oppositional force against Labor super

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Speaker 2: interesting when you look elsewhere in the country it's really

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Speaker 2: not like that. But in terms of this big loss

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Speaker 2: for the Liberal Party, they have four seats, that's looking

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Speaker 2: like it will be six. That's down from sixteen at

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Speaker 2: the last election. So the last time they were in

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Speaker 2: opposition they had significantly more seats. But I did just

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Speaker 2: want to flag it's not just one nation who has

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Speaker 2: benefited from a swing away from the Liberal Party. The

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Speaker 2: Labor Party picked up a lot of previously or traditionally

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Speaker 2: Liberal held seats. Some independence also gained their at least

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Speaker 2: one independent, so there's been a bit of a mixture

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Speaker 2: in terms of where voters have gone to when they've

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Speaker 2: gone away from the Liberal Party.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so that's the Liberal Party's loss, the labor parties win.

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Speaker 1: But for this podcast, we're going to focus on One

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Speaker 1: Nation before we go on. Do you want to just

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Speaker 1: explain who One Nation is.

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Speaker 2: Or what it is?

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Speaker 1: I should say?

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Speaker 2: So, this is I think it's fair to say, a

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Speaker 2: fairly controversial party in the Australian political landscape. Pauline Hansen

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Speaker 2: founded One Nation in nineteen ninety seven. She was originally

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Speaker 2: elected as an independent in ninety six. Then she founded

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Speaker 2: One Nation. In essence, this is a right wing populist

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Speaker 2: party on the more conservative spectrum of conservative politics here

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Speaker 2: in Australia. One Nation, i'd say is best known for

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Speaker 2: its anti immigration policy. Pauline Hanson has always led One

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Speaker 2: Nation with a very strong anti immigration stance and that

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Speaker 2: has continued over the past thirty odd years. It's also

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Speaker 2: a party that stands on what it describes as protecting

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Speaker 2: free speech. So you probably will have heard a lot

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Speaker 2: of One Nation politicians or candidates discussing free speech, particularly

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Speaker 2: in recent years as that's become a more kind of

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Speaker 2: high profile political issue. But in terms of its actual

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Speaker 2: presence in the Fed Parliament, One Nation currently holds four

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Speaker 2: Senate seats in the upper house in Canberra. It doesn't

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Speaker 2: have any representation in the Lower House at this point.

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Speaker 1: Except for Barnaby Joyce. Oh yeah, because I forgot, because

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Speaker 1: he was elected as a National so easy to forget.

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Speaker 1: But he has since left the Nationals and he's now

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Speaker 1: part of One Nation.

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Speaker 2: Yes, a very prominent defector.

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Speaker 1: Yes, so it's right to say. At the last federal election,

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Speaker 1: which was last year, One Nation won no seats, so

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Speaker 1: it didn't win any seats ye in the lower House.

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Speaker 1: But since then Barnaby Joyce has changed which party he

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Speaker 1: is part of, and.

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Speaker 2: I think that speaks to an important political trend with

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Speaker 2: One Nation's popularity, is that we have seen a lot

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Speaker 2: of high profile politicians historically aligned with the Liberal and

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Speaker 2: Labor parties who defect to One Nation. So we've got

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Speaker 2: Barnaby Joyce as a perfect example there. There's a high

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Speaker 2: profile example in South Australia. Historically New South Wales had

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Speaker 2: Mark Latham, who was even Labor leader at one point.

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Speaker 2: So it does seem to exist as this kind of outlier,

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Speaker 2: almost an anti establishment party where sometimes high profile politicians

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Speaker 2: who you could argue have become disgruntled for whatever reason,

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Speaker 2: have found that One Nation is the right place for

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Speaker 2: them to continue their political careers.

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Speaker 1: Yes, okay, so that's the federal level and the representation

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Speaker 1: of One Nation at the federal level. But we're talking

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Speaker 1: about the state level here, so we now know what

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Speaker 1: that will look like in South Australia. But what about

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Speaker 1: the other states prior to this election?

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Speaker 2: Well, I wanted to talk about South Australia prior to

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Speaker 2: this election because I think it speaks to what we're

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Speaker 2: seeing nationally. Before this election over the weekend, One Nation

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Speaker 2: essentially had no presence in South Australia. They were barely

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Speaker 2: a party in South Australia. But this year they ran

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Speaker 2: in all forty seven Lower House seats, so there was

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Speaker 2: a massive election blitz. They put a candidate forward in

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Speaker 2: every possible seat and that eventuated in them securing twenty

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Speaker 2: two percent of the primary vote. That's a near twenty

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Speaker 2: percent swing on the last election. So two point six

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Speaker 2: percent of the primary went to One Nation in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two in South Australia. Now we're talking twenty two percent.

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Speaker 1: That is a huge jump.

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Speaker 2: Massive swing. And Billy you mentioned other states. Now we

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Speaker 2: haven't seen a result like that for One Nation anywhere

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Speaker 2: except for Queensland, and not for nearly thirty years. So

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Speaker 2: in nineteen ninety eight at the Queensland election, One Nation

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Speaker 2: one eleven of eighty nine Lower House seats. Things have

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Speaker 2: shifted there. Now One Nation does not have a representative

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Speaker 2: in Queensland Parliament, but that was its biggest moment and

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Speaker 2: that was some decades ago. Elsewhere around the country, though,

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Speaker 2: One Nation has two elected officials in WA in the

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Speaker 2: Upper House. They won those seats just last year. One

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Speaker 2: Nation has one MP in Victoria, also in the Upper House.

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Speaker 2: That was their first ever win in Victoria in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two. Now there is a Victorian state election coming

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Speaker 2: up in a few months. One Nation has flagged. The

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Speaker 2: Victorian Parliament is a major target. In other states and territories,

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Speaker 2: there is not currently One Nation representation in parliaments, but

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Speaker 2: polling does suggest a national swing towards One Nation all

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Speaker 2: or that their popularity has certainly shifted in the last

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Speaker 2: twelve months or.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, and the polling is interesting because I think

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Speaker 1: if we look at the past decade, let's say, I

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Speaker 1: think there have been so many elections, not just in

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Speaker 1: Australia but around the world where polling has been wrong.

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Speaker 1: And I will put my hand off and say that

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Speaker 1: when all of this polling has come out about one

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Speaker 1: nation's rise in Australia, I think it's been really in

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Speaker 1: the last six months or so that polling has suggested

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Speaker 1: that Australians are more so than ever, leaning towards one nation.

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Speaker 1: I have been a bit skeptical just because of the

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Speaker 1: polling results of the last decade and how many times

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Speaker 1: they have been wrong.

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Speaker 2: I think that's completely fair to be skeptical, and it's

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Speaker 2: healthy to be skeptical of those results. But what we've seen,

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Speaker 2: I suppose with the South Australian election, is the first

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Speaker 2: time that that popularity has really been put to the

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Speaker 2: test in the public domain, that the electorate has been

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Speaker 2: able to kind of declare this mandate that goes beyond

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Speaker 2: you know, newspaper polling, and really that's the evidence we

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Speaker 2: have that things have dramatically changed for one nation.

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Speaker 1: And they're shown that the polling is right. Yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: interesting how big the shift has been because if we

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Speaker 1: look at the last federal election, like we said, they

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Speaker 1: didn't win a single seat at that election, But now

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Speaker 1: we have the South Australia election to actually show that

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Speaker 1: the polls are right that since the federal election there

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Speaker 1: has been somewhat of a shift towards One Nation.

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Speaker 2: And the conversation keeps coming back to what that reaction

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Speaker 2: means and what it says about the coalition or how

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Speaker 2: voters feel about the Coalition. Just for a really quick

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Speaker 2: refresher if you're not super familiar with the latest polling data,

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Speaker 2: February News Poll data put One Nation at twenty seven

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Speaker 2: percent of the primary vote, the Coalition at eighteen percent.

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Speaker 1: This is at the federal level.

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Speaker 2: Yes, at the federal level. That was the highest recorded

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Speaker 2: figure for One Nation in News Poll's history and the

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Speaker 2: lowest for the Coalition. If you're interested, Labour sits at

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Speaker 2: about twenty nine percent. Roy Morgan did the most recent

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Speaker 2: polling last week that has the Coalition on twenty four

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Speaker 2: percent of the primary One Nation on twenty two and

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Speaker 2: a half percent of the primary. So a little bit

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Speaker 2: softer there for One Nation, but still as you can

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Speaker 2: see very competitive and close to the coalition, which tells

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Speaker 2: us a story I think nationally about how voters feel

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Speaker 2: about not just One Nation, but the opposition, the Capital

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Speaker 2: O opposition that's in government in Parliament right now.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So that has cemented the evidence that there has

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Speaker 1: been a rise and support for one Nation. I want

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Speaker 1: to get to what's behind that rise. But first here

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Speaker 1: is a quick message from today's sponsor m Like I

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Speaker 1: said before the break, I want to look at what

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Speaker 1: exactly is behind the ride of one Nation.

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Speaker 2: There are a few really key issues here I suppose

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Speaker 2: that can be attributed to this shift. Cost of living

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Speaker 2: pressures are a massive one, and with cost of living

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Speaker 2: pressures we've seen I suppose a growing frustration that has

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Speaker 2: particularly been noted in the outer suburbs and in regional areas,

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Speaker 2: so parts of the country where voters have said they

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Speaker 2: feel that they have been ignored or left behind by

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Speaker 2: the traditional two party system, that major parties aren't doing

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Speaker 2: enough for them or anything for them. So there's that

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Speaker 2: growing frustration. I think an americanization of Australian politics, where

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Speaker 2: we see more and more individual politicians emerge as characters

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Speaker 2: or leaders rather than traditional parties and how we feel

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Speaker 2: about parties versus how we feel about people and politicians.

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Speaker 2: There is, of course, the immigration conversation. Politics has really

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Speaker 2: become divided between the housing crisis and laying blame on

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Speaker 2: immigration and whether or not there is an overrepresentation of

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Speaker 2: migrants in the housing crisis. A lot of data to

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Speaker 2: debunk that, a lot of data that suggests otherwise. But

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Speaker 2: I think it is really important to separate one nation's

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Speaker 2: rise from the Liberal party's collapse. You know, there is

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Speaker 2: this federal and state movement happening where the voter base

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Speaker 2: is clearly telling the coalition that they are not satisfied

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Speaker 2: with the status quo. And many of those voters, it

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Speaker 2: could be argued, have been one over by one nation

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Speaker 2: or have gone to one nation, some of them have

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Speaker 2: gone to independence, many of them have gone to the

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Speaker 2: Labor Party as well. But I don't think you can

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Speaker 2: talk about one nation's success without acknowledging what's going on

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Speaker 2: at the heart of the liberal and national parties everywhere.

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Speaker 1: And it's just dawned on me that we have spoken

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Speaker 1: about the primary vote, but we haven't actually said how

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Speaker 1: many seats one nation actually one Yeah, in the South

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Speaker 1: Australia election. At this stage it's only one, but a

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Speaker 1: second one is looking very likely. Well.

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Speaker 2: Counting is continuing, but right now One Nation has at

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Speaker 2: least one Lower House seat. They could win up to four.

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Speaker 2: So as we speak, nearly eight seats are still in doubt.

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Speaker 2: One Nation is ahead in three of them. The remaining

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Speaker 2: ones in doubt. There are two that the Liberal Party

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Speaker 2: or ahead in one, Independent is ahead in another. But

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Speaker 2: in the Upper House One Nation is also on track

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Speaker 2: to pick up around three seats. Now that includes Cory

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Speaker 2: Bernardi if he rings a bell for you, he's a

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Speaker 2: former Liberal senator. He put his hand up for the

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Speaker 2: One Nation ticket in South Australia and he is a

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Speaker 2: head of the Liberal Party in the seat that he

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Speaker 2: has run in. So there is a projected four, five, six,

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Speaker 2: seven all up across both houses. That is short of

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Speaker 2: whether the Liberal Party is projected to sit. There are

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Speaker 2: about six seats that we're thinking the Libs will win

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Speaker 2: in the lower House, only two in the Upper House,

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Speaker 2: but that still will mean that they have a bigger representation.

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Speaker 2: They will form the formal opposition.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So to sum that up, there will probably be

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Speaker 1: more Liberals in the Lower House, but likely more One

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Speaker 1: Nation politicians in the Upper House. Yep.

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Speaker 2: That's Coriat Australia. Yeah, and that's kind of in line

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Speaker 2: with One Nation's trend across the country. They've typically only

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Speaker 2: had success in the Upper House.

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Speaker 1: Yes, Yes, because it's more likely for minor parties to

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Speaker 1: have success in the Upper House.

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Speaker 2: Yep. A conversation for another day.

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Speaker 1: Conversation for another day. And what has Pauline Hanson, who

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Speaker 1: is the leader of One Nation at the federal level

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Speaker 1: and the founder of One Nation? Yeah, what has she

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Speaker 1: said about this result? I imagine she's quite happy.

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Speaker 2: Yep. She's been pretty upbeat. I think it's absolutely fair

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Speaker 2: to say that. She's also said that these results prove

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Speaker 2: that there is this undercurrent of voters who have quote

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Speaker 2: had a gutful to use her words. That really speaks

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Speaker 2: to that frustration that we touched on, that voters are

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Speaker 2: looking for something else or something outside of the status quo.

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Speaker 2: She said that One Nation will go hard at the

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Speaker 2: Victorian election that's coming up in November. So a lot

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Speaker 2: of momentum on her side at the moment and she

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Speaker 2: is understandably pleased about it.

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Speaker 1: And what about Premier Peter Malinowskiz who did actually win

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Speaker 1: the limelight has kind of been taken away from you

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Speaker 1: because of one nation.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean he has a massive majority, yes, but

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Speaker 2: he did stay cautious. He said that the idea of

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Speaker 2: safe seats is over and that long standing intergenerational party

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Speaker 2: loyalty is out the window. He went on insiders on

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Speaker 2: the ABC and basically said, the moment you assume an

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Speaker 2: upper limit on any political opponent, you know, if you

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Speaker 2: dismiss one nation as not being a fierce potential opposition,

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Speaker 2: is the moment your primary vote starts going down. So

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Speaker 2: perhaps a little bit of a dig there at the

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Speaker 2: Liberal Party. Albanizi also kind of weighed in on all

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Speaker 2: of this. He didn't directly address the election results, but

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Speaker 2: during a speech in Melbourne on Sunday, he said there

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Speaker 2: are some in political life who want to turn back

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Speaker 2: the clock to an Australia that is no longer who

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Speaker 2: we are. He basically said that it's up to the

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Speaker 2: government to continue to call that out and to cherish

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Speaker 2: what makes Australia great diversity, the multicultural country that we

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Speaker 2: live in, and that that is a strength of who

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Speaker 2: we are as a nation.

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Speaker 1: Very busy time in politics. It really does feel like

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Speaker 1: the political landscape in Australia is shifting away from this

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Speaker 1: two party system that we've always known the political landscape

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Speaker 1: to be.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I know.

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Speaker 1: The next time One Nation will be tested in an

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Speaker 1: election sense is when we have a federal by election

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Speaker 1: coming up. That's because the former leader of the Liberal

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Speaker 1: Party at the federal level, Susan Lee, has dropped out

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Speaker 1: of politics.

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Speaker 2: Yep, so that will be the Para by election. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: absolutely right. That's a huge rural elector in southern New

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Speaker 2: South Wales. It's been held by either the Liberals or

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Speaker 2: the Nationals since nineteen forty nine. Susan Lee herself held

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Speaker 2: that seat for twenty five years. But yep, the Leadership's Bill,

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Speaker 2: triggered by Angus Taylor, means that Susan Lee has stepped down,

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Speaker 2: she's resigned. We have that by election coming on the

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Speaker 2: ninth of May. Angus Taylor himself has called the contest

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Speaker 2: very very tough. At the moment, it's been described as

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Speaker 2: a four way race between the LIBSN that's One Nation,

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Speaker 2: and an independent. This will really be the first big

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Speaker 2: test of Taylor's leadership, many have said, and in terms

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Speaker 2: of what we know about the polling data for the

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Speaker 2: Pharaoh by election. One nation is ahead just on primary

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Speaker 2: votes at around twenty nine percent. The Independent interestingly is

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Speaker 2: on twenty three percent, the Liberals on nineteen So it

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Speaker 2: will be a big uphill push for the Liberal Party

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Speaker 2: if they want to hold on there, and a massive

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Speaker 2: symbol of I think the shift away from traditional parties

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Speaker 2: if one nation ends up winning.

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Speaker 1: So one nation is ahead in polling in Pharaoh.

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Speaker 2: Yes, but I did want to note that there was

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Speaker 2: a poll by the Australian Institute that found that voters

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Speaker 2: listed one nation at the top of a list of

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Speaker 2: who they wanted to win the least. So thirty seven

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Speaker 2: percent of people in Pharah said they wanted one nation

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Speaker 2: to win the least, and yet twenty nine percent of

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Speaker 2: the primary in Pharar, according to this poll, is one nation.

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Speaker 1: And that just tells you everything you need to know

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Speaker 1: about how divisive politics is now exactly.

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Speaker 2: There is an implication here though, legislatively, if one nation

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Speaker 2: has more of a presence in the lower house, that

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Speaker 2: means that they will have more influence over legislation, that

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Speaker 2: they can table legislation themselves. One nation has never really

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Speaker 2: been responsible for putting forward its own pieces of legislation.

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Speaker 2: We hear a lot about their policies, but we've never

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Speaker 2: seen their policies on paper. Now that we have Barnaby Joyce,

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Speaker 2: and depending on what happens in Farah, that might change

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Speaker 2: and we might be here in a couple of months

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Speaker 2: talking about one nation legislation.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, although we should say they would still not be

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Speaker 1: able to pass that because they don't have They're very

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Speaker 1: far from a majority in the Lower.

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Speaker 2: But that doesn't stop them from bringing a bill. Yes,

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Speaker 2: and hey, pigs might fly and the Coalition might love

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Speaker 2: their bill, and the Labor Party might love their bill,

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Speaker 2: and things get passed and the world.

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Speaker 1: Terms and that's politics, just all of the surprises. Em

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Speaker 1: thank you for taking us through that. Thanks Billy, and

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for listening to this episode of

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Speaker 1: The Daily Yours. We'll be back later today with the

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Speaker 1: evening headlines, but until then, we hope you have a

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Speaker 1: lovely day. My name is Lily Maddon and I'm a

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Speaker 1: proud Arunda Bunjelung Kalkadoon woman from Gadighl Country. The Daily

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Speaker 1: oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on the lands

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Speaker 1: of the Gadighl people and pays respect to all Aboriginal

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Speaker 1: and torrest rate island and nations. We pay our respects

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Speaker 1: to the first peoples of these countries, both past and

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Speaker 1: present