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Speaker 1: Now we know that sanctions are being imposed on Russia

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Speaker 1: around the world as that severe response to what the

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Scott Morrison says is a brutal, unprovoked and

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Speaker 1: illegal invasion of Ukraine. So reports of Russian troops invading

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Speaker 1: ukraine territory and explosions in several cities have been flooding

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Speaker 1: the media in the last twenty four hours as the

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Speaker 1: Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized that military operation in Ukraine's

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Speaker 1: Donbas region. Now joining me on the line is the

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Speaker 1: Australian Strategic Policy Institute's Defense Strategy and Capability Senior analyst,

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Speaker 1: Doctor Malcolm Davis. Good morning to you, Malcolm. Good morning,

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much for your time this morning.

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Speaker 2: Malcolm.

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Speaker 1: I know there will be a lot of people listening

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Speaker 1: this morning who are wondering what does the conflict mean

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Speaker 1: for the countries involved.

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Speaker 2: Look, I think it's very clear that Russia has launched

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Speaker 2: a major war against Ukraine, even taking a massive air,

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Speaker 2: land and sea operation that will see Ukraine potentially dismembered,

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Speaker 2: its government removed from power by brute force, and its

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Speaker 2: territory and its national borders change through force. So it's

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Speaker 2: a very serious crisis. It's the most dangerous and the

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Speaker 2: most violent war in Europe since the Second World War.

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Speaker 1: It's pretty scary, you know, for everybody sort of just

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Speaker 1: sitting and watching here in Australia and in other countries

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Speaker 1: around the world. But then when you look at Europe,

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Speaker 1: it must be an incredibly frightening time.

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Speaker 2: Well, they really haven't been exposed to this thought of crisis,

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Speaker 2: certainly since the Balkan Wars and the nineteen nineties, but

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Speaker 2: really since the end of the Cold War. Certainly during

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Speaker 2: the Cold War there was always the risk of written

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Speaker 2: invasion by the warsaw packs led by the Soviet Union

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Speaker 2: of NATO, but both sides kind of reached an equilibrium

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Speaker 2: there and stared off at each other and that was stable.

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Speaker 2: But now we're in a situation in Europe where there's

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Speaker 2: no real effective deterrence and so Russia is now moving

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Speaker 2: bit of an aggressive invasion of Ukraine. And the concern

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Speaker 2: that I think is that on everyone's minds is what next?

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Speaker 2: Does this extend beyond Ukraine?

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Speaker 1: And I think that your spot on there, that is

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Speaker 1: what everybody's wondering is what is next? And I guess

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Speaker 1: it's hard to anticipate what anyone's going to do, particularly

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Speaker 1: of Vladimir Putin. But Malcolm, how do you see this

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Speaker 1: playing out?

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Speaker 2: Well, it's at the moment the Russians seem to be

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Speaker 2: having a hard time advancing in the north of Ukraine

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Speaker 2: from Belarus and Russia. The Ukrainians seem to be defending

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Speaker 2: that area well, while whereas in the south the Russians

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Speaker 2: are making very quick gains. So I think the Russians

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Speaker 2: clearly seek to take Kiev, the capital. They're already fighting

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Speaker 2: around Kakiv in the east near the Donbas region, and

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Speaker 2: they also probably want to take the south coast, which

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Speaker 2: we're in taking Mriopol and then across to Odessa. And

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Speaker 2: I think that at that point, you know, the Russians

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Speaker 2: would probably declare victory having removed the government, and then

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Speaker 2: impose a puppet regime in Kiev. The challenge of cause,

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Speaker 2: the broader challenge is how does Europe respond to that?

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Speaker 2: And I think you have to think back to Winston

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Speaker 2: Churchill's Iron Curtain speech where he talked about the growing

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Speaker 2: threat of war in Europe once again after the Second

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Speaker 2: World War. I think the same thing is going to

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Speaker 2: face in Europe now. We are going to be facing

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Speaker 2: the potential for a prolonged period of increased risk of

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Speaker 2: confrontation with Russia across NATO's eastern frontier. So if you

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Speaker 2: think back to the Cold War, the front line was

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Speaker 2: places like the Thorder Gap and the North German Plane. Well,

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Speaker 2: now it's the Slwauki Gap in Poland, it's the Baltic

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Speaker 2: states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. It's the Black Sea

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Speaker 2: in Romania, and that's where we have to defend.

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Speaker 1: And Malcolm, I guess it probably sounds like a silly question,

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Speaker 1: but what does that mean for the rest of the world.

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Speaker 2: It means we are back into a confrontational multipolar order.

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Speaker 2: We are facing both Russia and China as to peer adversaries,

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Speaker 2: totalitarian authoritarian states that are challenging Western liberal democracy, challenging

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Speaker 2: the rules based order. And so for Europe they're facing

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Speaker 2: Russia as an immediate nuclear threat to their security. For

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Speaker 2: the Indo Pacific region, we are facing a rising China

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Speaker 2: that clearly has ambitions to take Taiwan and thus has

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Speaker 2: the potential for a wider war there sometime in this decade.

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Speaker 2: So we are facing very difficult times that the days

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Speaker 2: of the peaceful post Cold War era are gone.

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Speaker 1: And we did catch up with John Coyn a little

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Speaker 1: bit earlier in the week and talked about the Northern

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Speaker 1: Territories relationship, of course, or our strategic importance. I think

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Speaker 1: you'd say as well within the world. And then when

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Speaker 1: you talk about the Asia region and indeed China, you know,

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Speaker 1: do you think I guess it's such a difficult one

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Speaker 1: for so many of us sitting at home wondering how

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Speaker 1: this is all going to sort of play out. I mean,

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Speaker 1: do you think that any of the sanctions and things

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Speaker 1: that have been imposed on Russia by other countries at

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Speaker 1: this point in time, and any further sanctions, do you

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Speaker 1: think that they're likely to have much of an impact.

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Speaker 2: Look, they'll have an impact. They won't deter Russia from

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Speaker 2: taking further aggressive steps in Ukraine, but they certainly will

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Speaker 2: increase the cost of those further steps for Russia. But

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Speaker 2: Russia's probably gained those in to its planning, and it's

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Speaker 2: got a large war chest of about six hundred and

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Speaker 2: eighty billion dollars in financial reserves, and it's got assistance

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Speaker 2: from China and Iran to avoid the worst of sanctions

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Speaker 2: in terms of energy and also as this war continues,

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Speaker 2: the cost of oil is skyrocketing and so that benefits

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Speaker 2: Russia's economy. So I think that the sanctions are not

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Speaker 2: going to be as effective as everyone had hoped they

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Speaker 2: would be, and so we do then have to prepare

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Speaker 2: for that prolonged period of confrontation in Europe akin to

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Speaker 2: the Cold War.

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Speaker 1: And Malcolm, there'll be people wondering as well. There has

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Speaker 1: been that discussion about the gas pipeline and also, like

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Speaker 1: you said, they're oil. What kind of impact is that

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Speaker 1: going to have for the rest of the world.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think that the increasing global tensions tend to

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Speaker 2: drive the cost of oil up, so therefore the average

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Speaker 2: person will fill that on the street in terms of

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Speaker 2: the price of petrol and fuel. There may be increasing uncertainty,

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Speaker 2: for example, if there is a more contested, dangerous environment,

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Speaker 2: particularly in terms of possibilities of unrest in the Middle East,

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Speaker 2: you know, are we going to the interruptions of critical

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Speaker 2: resources coming out of the Middle East. So that's why

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Speaker 2: I think it's really important for Australia to develop sovereign

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Speaker 2: supply chains and to try to insulate itself off the

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Speaker 2: risk of being too reliant on one source of critical

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Speaker 2: energy resources.

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Speaker 1: Welcome. Do you think we're going to see more money

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Speaker 1: and more infrastructure invested in places like the Northern Territory

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Speaker 1: which do have that strategic importance when it comes to defense.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, I mean the Northern Territory is now far more

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Speaker 2: important in strategic terms than what it used to be

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Speaker 2: during the Cold War because we are facing here in

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Speaker 2: the Indo Pacific. We're facing the challenge of China, and

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Speaker 2: so therefore the Northern Territory in particular is critical in

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Speaker 2: terms of supporting not only the Australian Defense Force operations

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Speaker 2: but also allies such as the United States and Japan

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Speaker 2: in terms of operating from the Northern Territory to counterbalance

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Speaker 2: and deter arising China. So I do think that it's

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Speaker 2: really essential for the Federal government to start investing massively

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Speaker 2: in the Northern Territory's economy, particularly in terms of the

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Speaker 2: defense economy, in boosting the effectiveness of facilities, opening up

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Speaker 2: new supply chains for critical resources, and having the ability

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Speaker 2: to use the Northern Territory as the key forward staging

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Speaker 2: point for any future military operations in the end of Pacific.

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Speaker 1: Well, tell you what I know, For you know a

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Speaker 1: lot of people that listen to this show who are

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Speaker 1: maybe of an older generation, they have maybe lived through

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Speaker 1: through situations like this before. Some of the younger generation

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Speaker 1: will be feeling quite scared this morning and uncertain, I suppose,

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Speaker 1: particularly after what we've discussed. It is an uncertain time

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Speaker 1: around the world right now, though, isn't it? It?

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Speaker 2: Certainly is. I mean, I think we are very much

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Speaker 2: back in comfrontational world order. As I said, the days

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Speaker 2: of the peaceful post Cold War era are long gone,

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Speaker 2: and we have to be ready for some really challenging

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Speaker 2: years ahead in terms of how we respond to both

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Speaker 2: China and also Russia at a global level. And some

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Speaker 2: would say we're in a pre war period in terms

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Speaker 2: of the Indo Pacific in terms of how China relates

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Speaker 2: to Taiwan. I think that's quite correct. So we have

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Speaker 2: to be ready for some very serious challenges coming towards

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Speaker 2: us on the horizon.

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Speaker 1: And do you think that the likes of Russia and

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Speaker 1: China still see the US as being that dominant power

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Speaker 1: that they once were.

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Speaker 2: Oh? Look, I think they recognize that the US is

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Speaker 2: not to be taken lightly and clearly, depending on how

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Speaker 2: the Biden administration responds to this challenge from Russia in Europe.

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Speaker 2: I think China will assess its own plans in terms

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Speaker 2: of moves against Taiwan later this decade. It may be

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Speaker 2: that if the US doesn't respond effectively to the challenge

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Speaker 2: plosed by Russia, then China might be tempted to accelerate

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Speaker 2: its plans for taking Taiwan. And so there is that

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Speaker 2: consequence that if we don't get this right, we could

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Speaker 2: be facing not only a greater risk of much larger

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Speaker 2: war in Europe, also a larger war in the in

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Speaker 2: the Pacific region that would then directly affect Australia.

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Speaker 1: Well, i'll tell you what it's. Yeah, it's it's interesting

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Speaker 1: to say the least. We really appreciate your time this morning, Malcolm.

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Speaker 1: I know it's you're probably your expertise and knowledge is

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Speaker 1: probably being utilized and called upon all around Australia today,

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Speaker 1: So we really appreciate you having a chat to us

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Speaker 1: here in Darwin. My pleasure, Thanks Malcolm,