1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,640 Speaker 1: Now as we know, the polls are opening today. It's 2 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,000 Speaker 1: going to be an interesting day, to say the least, 3 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:07,360 Speaker 1: an interesting couple of weeks. I think it's safe to 4 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:09,960 Speaker 1: say it. I'm very pleased. Joining me in the studio 5 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:14,320 Speaker 1: right now is the ABC News political reporter Tom Morgan. 6 00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 2: Good morning to. 7 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 3: You, Katie, Morning listeners, and Well. 8 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: Nine News Darwin's executive producer Kathleen Gazola, Good morning to 9 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 1: your lovely to have you both in the studio and 10 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 1: well poles opening this morning. 11 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 2: Done a bit of a wreki pass there yet you 12 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 2: two from pass? 13 00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, they're out. 14 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 4: All the core flutes and stuff are out at the 15 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 4: front of the entertainment center down the road, so it 16 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 4: looks like it's all kicking off. 17 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:40,200 Speaker 5: My compen was very busy with I'm pretty sure plenty 18 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 5: of candidates outside as well. Yeah. 19 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:43,479 Speaker 2: Right, it's going to be interesting, isn't it. 20 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 1: Now? 21 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 2: What are your thoughts if. 22 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:46,920 Speaker 1: You turn up early to vote, you, well, obviously you 23 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 1: know who you're voting for. 24 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:48,840 Speaker 2: You're not a swinging voter. 25 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:51,559 Speaker 5: Yeah, those are certainly the people who have already made 26 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 5: up their minds and not the ones that each political 27 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,400 Speaker 5: party are targeting to try and get across the line. 28 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 5: But I think Territorians are very supportive of early voting, 29 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 5: Like it's almost more than fifty percent that have turned 30 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 5: out early in the past couple, isn't that? I think? 31 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:09,559 Speaker 4: Yeah, suspicion this time is that, you know a lot 32 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 4: of the vote will be early voting, and there will 33 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:14,040 Speaker 4: be very few people who vote on the Saturday next week. 34 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:18,040 Speaker 5: So actually, when you don't get a democracy sausage, you 35 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 5: surely introducing those well, and there I guess the interesting 36 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 5: thing is, you know, many will say that if you 37 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:27,400 Speaker 5: turn out early to vote, or what kind of sign 38 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 5: does it signal? 39 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 1: If plenty of people do turn out early to vote, 40 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:32,119 Speaker 1: does it signal that there's a. 41 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 2: Change in the air. Does it not? Nonetheless, the Labor 42 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 2: Party is. 43 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 1: Still announcing that they're going to be putting one point 44 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: four million dollars into private security today right across the 45 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 1: Northern territory. 46 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 2: So they are clearly. 47 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 1: Still trying to, you know, to clench some of those 48 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 1: final votes. 49 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 4: I think I think it shows that the Laura and 50 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 4: Ord issue, it's I think Labor has really tried to 51 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 4: make grab that issue and sort of take it off 52 00:01:57,520 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 4: the COLP and we saw that with the five hundred 53 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,520 Speaker 4: and seven many million dollars for police, they're trying to 54 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 4: beat the COLP at their own game here and try 55 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 4: to take a bit of momentum off the COLP, particularly 56 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 4: in this last two weeks, because I think that is 57 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 4: the issue as we all know, that will decide this election. 58 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:15,799 Speaker 5: But the problem is is that we are obviously early voting, 59 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 5: so yes, there might be two weeks, but you potentially 60 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 5: lose a lot of those people that could have maybe 61 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:27,800 Speaker 5: been convinced otherwise. And what Labor I think personally, this 62 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 5: is only my opinion, is trying to do, especially after 63 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 5: listening to the Chief Minister this morning speak to you 64 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 5: that yes she's been Chief Minister for the past six months, 65 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 5: so you know it's a changing of the guard. They 66 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 5: still have eight years behind them, which works against them. 67 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,040 Speaker 2: And this is the tact that I'm finding really quite interesting. 68 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:45,079 Speaker 2: And I think that we. 69 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 1: Really saw this last week obviously throughout the debate that 70 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 1: we'd had in the studio, and I know then press 71 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,559 Speaker 1: conferences were held by both of those political parties afterwards, 72 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:57,080 Speaker 1: and you're really seeing evil Al presenting that she's a 73 00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 1: safe set of hands. You know, she's only been the 74 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:01,800 Speaker 1: chief minister for what was it, how many days one 75 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:04,679 Speaker 1: hundred I can't remember, however many days two hundred and 76 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 1: fifty days or something like that. And she's a safe 77 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:10,640 Speaker 1: set of hands. And then Leah fin Kia a really 78 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 1: running down the path of if you are happy with 79 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,519 Speaker 1: the way that the Northern Territory is going right now, 80 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 1: vote Labor. If you're not, we'll vote for change and 81 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 1: vote for the COLP. 82 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:24,919 Speaker 5: And Eva is definitely hamming up that whole. I'm an 83 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 5: experienced set of hands because she's been a minister since 84 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 5: Labor has been in power. But a lot of people 85 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 5: forget that Leah has been in Parliament since twenty twelve 86 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 5: and then she obviously was one of a two person 87 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 5: team when they got wiped out in twenty sixteen, so 88 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 5: she has had to really be in a leadership role 89 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 5: of some sort for a very long time. And you know, 90 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 5: she has helped bring the COLP back from. 91 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 2: Dese mantension just about it. 92 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 5: I don't think she gets a lot of credit for that. 93 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 4: And Eva's argument about you know, this is where the 94 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 4: devil you know, don't trust the devil, you don't know, 95 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 4: that's the argument they're putting it for very true. 96 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 3: The problem with that. 97 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 4: Argument is that if that argument were to work, you'd 98 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 4: never see power change hands right, Voters will make a change, 99 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 4: like will vote for change if there is an attitude 100 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 4: of mood that things aren't working. 101 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 3: Now. 102 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:18,359 Speaker 4: I don't know what the mood is out there in 103 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 4: terms of is this like, is there an actual mood? 104 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:22,719 Speaker 4: Do voters have baseball bats so they wanting to go 105 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 4: out there and change the government? 106 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, going out in force. 107 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:32,679 Speaker 1: I do feel as though there could be a fairly 108 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:37,720 Speaker 1: quiet ground swell at the moment, certainly, you know, as 109 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: I know the two of you do as well. I 110 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 1: speak to a lot of normal people every single day, 111 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 1: not only through this show, but every day when I'm 112 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 1: out at sport, every day, when I'm at various activities 113 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 1: with my children or with my husband, you know, out 114 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 1: at different community events, and by far and beyond, the 115 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 1: biggest issue that is raised is crime. It is, and 116 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:59,839 Speaker 1: it's not even just the crime issue. It's the personal 117 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 1: and people sort of saying, well, I don't let my 118 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 1: children go on that school bus, but I don't let 119 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 1: them on that bus because I am concerned about the 120 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:07,160 Speaker 1: issue of safety. 121 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 2: So I do feel as. 122 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 1: Though there is quite a strong undercurrent of that sense. 123 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 1: But how deep that runs, I guess remains to be 124 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:19,040 Speaker 1: seen and in which electorates remains to be seen. 125 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 4: And I suspect that you know, a talking to people, 126 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 4: and there are people who really want change. There are 127 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 4: also people who have a bit of satisfaction with both parties. 128 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 4: They are so fed up with the political process on 129 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:34,719 Speaker 4: both sides. And I'm not saying that's going to be 130 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:36,599 Speaker 4: a huge factor in this election, but I think it 131 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:38,600 Speaker 4: is something that both parties need to be aware of 132 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 4: because ultimately, we've seen results in other parts of the country, 133 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:45,599 Speaker 4: and we've seen results all over the world where the 134 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:49,359 Speaker 4: sort of de facto two party system is being challenged. 135 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 4: And I'm not saying that there's going to be like 136 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 4: a massive ground swell here, but you know, it is 137 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:54,839 Speaker 4: something that I think both parties need to be aware 138 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 4: of that they need to start crawing back some faith 139 00:05:57,839 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 4: from voters. 140 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 1: Look, I reckon that sense might be stronger in the 141 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 1: territory had we not had Territory Alliance run last time. 142 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:08,919 Speaker 1: And I think that people, you know, maybe put a 143 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:11,839 Speaker 1: bit more faith in territory Alliance in their early days 144 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 1: at the last Northern Territory election. But then we sort 145 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:16,280 Speaker 1: of saw some announcements from them that were very much 146 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 1: based on what they thought were popular decisions around things like, 147 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 1: you know, around things like fracking and and I can't 148 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: think of others off the top of my head, but 149 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 1: they did have an impact in some of those seats. 150 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: And so absolutely, I reckon what you're saying there is right, Tom, 151 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,359 Speaker 1: Particularly I reckon in seats like Fanny Bay, you know, 152 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 1: the Greens could get strip quite a strong vote. And 153 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:39,159 Speaker 1: then what that means when it comes down to those 154 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:41,920 Speaker 1: preferences is anybody's guests. 155 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,159 Speaker 5: And I mean in the Northern Territory in particular, the 156 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:49,160 Speaker 5: seats are so small, so each individual candidate can easily 157 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 5: make it around their electorate door knocking, potentially a couple 158 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 5: of times depending on how early they are pre selected. 159 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 5: So we've seen from several local members that have huge majorities, 160 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:07,279 Speaker 5: like Nicole Manison, like Natasha Files, Kate Warden Leafanocchiaro, that 161 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 5: they are very good grassroots members. They are out in 162 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 5: the community, their people see them, and that delivers at 163 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 5: the ballot box. And that I think is potentially the 164 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 5: big difference in the Northern territory that is unique to 165 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 5: it that if you are a hard working member, you're 166 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 5: going to get rewarded for that. And so as you mentioned, 167 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 5: and I don't know whether this is a good thing 168 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 5: to use, but like I think it was a phrase 169 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 5: coined by Scott Morrison. It's those quiet Australians, those quiet Territorians. 170 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 5: They aren't out there on the Facebook pages or coming 171 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 5: up to each electorate at each candidate's face and telling 172 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 5: them what for they I support you y. It's those 173 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 5: quiet Territorians that are just watching and making up their minds. Now. 174 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 1: One of the things I always remember, and I hope 175 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 1: he doesn't mind me paraphrasing this, but one thing that 176 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 1: Damien Hale told me many years ago, it's the only 177 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,200 Speaker 1: thing you can be sure of is the person who 178 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 1: tells you they're not voting for you to your face. 179 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 1: And I think that's a really like to me, that's 180 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 1: a really good point. A lot of people will be 181 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 1: polite to your face, particularly if your door knocking right 182 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: like you come to their house, unless you're really angry. 183 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 4: And that's something that I think a lot of the 184 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 4: local people, a lot of the candidates out there are 185 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 4: really cognizant of is and they're probably being prepped on 186 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 4: this is that people will say that they're going to 187 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 4: vote for you, but they don't mean it. 188 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 3: They just sort of they want to be polite on you. Yeah, 189 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 3: and doorstop, it'll be. 190 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:32,200 Speaker 4: Like, oh, you know, yeah, you seem nice. 191 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 1: So I just want to go back to the point 192 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 1: about experience and about the press conference on Friday, because 193 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:40,839 Speaker 1: I know that the Chief Minister, Evil Lawler, had held 194 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 1: a press conference on Friday and was talking about the experience. 195 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:45,200 Speaker 2: That her team has. 196 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 1: I just felt that it was quite ironic then the 197 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: fact that she had Brent Potter and Mark Monaghan behind her, 198 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:53,720 Speaker 1: who have both only been ministers for a short period 199 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 1: of time, and was talking about their experience team. And 200 00:08:56,960 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 1: I did just have a little chuckle to myself because 201 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 1: I thought, well, hang on, a sect have been ministers 202 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:05,120 Speaker 1: for five minutes, so can you really say, you know, 203 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: can you really draw on that experience? 204 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 5: I pointed that out to her at the press conference, 205 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 5: because she was very very hard on that point about 206 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 5: her being experienced versus Leah's inexperience, and that Leah would 207 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:22,000 Speaker 5: just be influenced by the powerful, faceless men behind her. 208 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:24,679 Speaker 5: In the sea. She as if she'll be a puppet 209 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 5: with the strings pulled a bit off. Yeah. Admittedly, myself 210 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,679 Speaker 5: and the ABC reporter Lily and who were there were 211 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,800 Speaker 5: a bit like, oh, that's come across in the very 212 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 5: wrong way. And I don't think she meant it in 213 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 5: the sense of putting down a fellow woman, but it 214 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:44,719 Speaker 5: was I mentioned to her as like, you're talking about experience. Yes, 215 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 5: you've been a minister since you came into government. But 216 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,440 Speaker 5: the two behind her, I mean Brent Potter, how long 217 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 5: has he been in parliamurriculous yep, and then Mark Monahan 218 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 5: as well, both of them only becoming ministers when Eva 219 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:00,679 Speaker 5: took the Chief ministership. So it was of a bit 220 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 5: jarring in that sense. But obviously Labor must have some 221 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 5: kind of indications from some of their foliage about who 222 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:11,560 Speaker 5: were the popular people within their team, because regularly Tom 223 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 5: and I will go to a press conference and they'll 224 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 5: be Brent Potter or they'll be Mark Monahan. More often 225 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 5: than not, the two of them are the most that 226 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,200 Speaker 5: are rolled out, and then occasionally you'll see some of 227 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 5: the other members. 228 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 4: And it is interesting as well that the two women 229 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:26,800 Speaker 4: who were sort of I guess the two right hand 230 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 4: women of Michael Gunner, Natasha Files and Nicole Madison. Nicole 231 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 4: Madison stepping down at the selection and Natasha Files is 232 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:35,839 Speaker 4: nowhere to be seen. She's on the back bench. You know, 233 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 4: you've got a lot of experience. They're the Deputy Chief 234 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 4: Minister and the Health Minister through COVID not really being 235 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 4: the public face of labor at all at this content. 236 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 5: And you don't see the Deputy Chief Minister at the moment, 237 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 5: Chancey Pace, although he was in Darwin this weekend. 238 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 1: I did see ministerial duties the lead with you boat. 239 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:55,439 Speaker 5: You don't see the Health Minister out. 240 00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, very interesting, but look I'm interested to hear from 241 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 1: our listeners this morning. Zero four double nine seven double 242 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 1: one three six zero. Ministerial experience or real world experience? 243 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 2: What do you prefer? I don't know. 244 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 5: Run into the difference that both parties are trotting up, 245 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 5: that THECLP is trotting out. She's talking about that. You know, 246 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 5: her team has made up of people of real world 247 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 5: experience that have other jobs that they can bring in 248 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 5: to Parliament to do the jobs that needed to be 249 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:24,320 Speaker 5: delivered because they understand how the outside works. Outside world 250 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 5: works rather than just being a political staffer on the 251 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 5: fifth floor, a political hack. As they say, well, look 252 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 5: we might. 253 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 2: Have a look at the different seats. What do you reckon? 254 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 1: You're both keen to have a little focus on the 255 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 1: seats and I know that there are some that the 256 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 1: major political parties and indeed the Greens and Independents are 257 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 1: going to be focusing. 258 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 2: On as winnable. 259 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,959 Speaker 1: First, looking at Arafura, we know that Manuel Brown from 260 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:53,080 Speaker 1: the ALP currently holds our Refura. He has got a 261 00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 1: Yanya Thompson who is running against a running against him 262 00:11:58,240 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 1: for the COLP. 263 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 2: Look, I don't know. I feel like it's probably going 264 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 2: to be a pretty safe. 265 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:05,600 Speaker 4: One Manuel has as I understand it connections to both 266 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 4: Matting Greta on the mainland and also Teewee Ireland communities 267 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 4: as well has connections to both. 268 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 3: So I can't imagine labor being under threat there. 269 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:14,200 Speaker 5: No, I agree with that. 270 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:16,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's have a look at Ara Lewin. This is 271 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:19,319 Speaker 1: indeed going to be an interesting one. Robin Lamley had 272 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:21,840 Speaker 1: only won it on about forty seven votes if I 273 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:24,400 Speaker 1: recall correctly from the last election. I could be wrong, 274 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 1: could be one or two different, but she has well 275 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 1: four people up against her this time round. I've spoken 276 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 1: to a couple of people in Alice who have said 277 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:36,440 Speaker 1: that they feel as though she's pretty safe. That she 278 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 1: has been a very vocal and active local member. 279 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 5: So yeah, I will I would be very hard pressed 280 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 5: to see Robin losing this. That would probably be the 281 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:47,560 Speaker 5: biggest upset for me if she got. 282 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:48,440 Speaker 3: Barely campaign there. 283 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 4: They pre selected someone on literally the last day before 284 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 4: nominations closed, like they haven't run a campaign there because 285 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:58,199 Speaker 4: I suspect that possibly after the election they might want 286 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 4: to bring Rob well, they might want Rob on side. 287 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 1: Now, yeah, I think that's a very good point to make. 288 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 1: I think that if we and we might get to 289 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 1: that after but if we were to see a minority 290 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 1: government in some way, that is where those independents are 291 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 1: going to become so very important. Let's head across to Arnham. 292 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:17,679 Speaker 1: We know Selena Rubo, the current health spinister, up against 293 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 1: in a new gumbaler. 294 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 5: I do apologize if pronounces the CP. 295 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:28,560 Speaker 4: He ran in twenty sixteen for the COLP and was defeated, 296 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 4: but then he ran us an independent in twenty twenty 297 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:33,079 Speaker 4: and gave Selena Yubo a real run for money. I 298 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 4: think it was very close last time, so the CLP 299 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 4: pre selecting him does make for an interesting contest. I 300 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:42,319 Speaker 4: don't know if it's you know, maybe because he ran 301 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:43,679 Speaker 4: as an independent that he did so well. 302 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:47,679 Speaker 5: Yeah, the Bushets are always very difficult to call early, 303 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 5: I think because of obviously the low voter turnout within 304 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:55,320 Speaker 5: remote regions and remote poling. But yeah, those are definitely 305 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:57,960 Speaker 5: interesting to see. What might there if there is a 306 00:13:57,960 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 5: swing in the bush could be determinant. 307 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:02,679 Speaker 1: Now a very close seat from one which everybody's going 308 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 1: to be keeping quite the eye on, I think, is Barclay. 309 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 1: It is currently held by the COLP Steve Edgington. The 310 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 1: ALP is saying that they've got a very strong candidate 311 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: in Lizzy Hogan, who has got quite a bit of 312 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 1: support out in the bush Way. 313 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:21,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, and Labor was saying someone within Labor was saying 314 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 4: that the seat now has sort of been redistributed in 315 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 4: a way where there's now more First Nations voters in 316 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 4: that electorate right for the first time, and so that 317 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 4: might make Steve Edgington's job a bit more difficult. He 318 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 4: only won it by five votes, as I recall it. 319 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 2: Blust collection it was really tight. 320 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 3: It could be a really interesting contest. 321 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 4: I suspect that it's probably safer for Steve than say 322 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 4: other seats in the Bush like Mamateurra. 323 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 5: Yeah, incumbency plays a lot because you have had the resources, 324 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 5: especially in those larger seats, to be able to travel 325 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:56,440 Speaker 5: around and be seen and make those extra connections that 326 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 5: perhaps you didn't have before. 327 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 1: Now a couple of the really interesting ones I think 328 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 1: are going to be out in Palmerston and having a 329 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 1: look at Blaine. It is currently held by former Labor 330 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 1: Party member now independent Mark Turner. He's up against Denny 331 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 1: Evely for the ALP and Matthew Cool for the CLP. 332 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 1: Now again, this one was pretty tight last time round, 333 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 1: but on preferences and I believe even on the primary 334 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 1: vote in the end that Mark Turner did edge in 335 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 1: front of Matthew Cool. Look, I think this is I 336 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 1: think this seat is well and truly at play. 337 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 5: Yeah, definitely. I mean we historically see Palmerston as a 338 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 5: more conservative leaning kind of region. In the past that 339 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 5: was the CLP heartland so to speak. In the northern 340 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 5: suburbs were ALP that they got punished, The CLP got 341 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 5: punished in twenty sixteen because of that chaotic government. So 342 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 5: that's where later picked up several seats. So you have 343 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 5: to question, obviously, with crime being such a major factor 344 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 5: in this election, that perhaps they are pretty getting pretty 345 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 5: confident with that their chances are getting better. 346 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 4: I'd say even I remember we talked to Mark Turner 347 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 4: a couple of weeks ago and he even he said 348 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:12,040 Speaker 4: it would be very difficult for him to win the 349 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 4: seats soul. 350 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 3: You know, he might be being modest, but. 351 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 5: Played Matthew Kurl stood last year for the cop last election, 352 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 5: and from my understanding, he really kind of hasn't stopped. Yeah, 353 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 5: it's kind of been a very visible presence. But also 354 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 5: to Mark Turner, he's obviously been a very active player 355 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 5: in his electorate as well. I understand he does a 356 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 5: lot of patrolling himself, obviously being a former police officer, 357 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 5: and you know out in Palmerston as a defense police 358 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 5: kind of enforcements. 359 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:47,280 Speaker 2: Were in Palmerston. 360 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:49,560 Speaker 1: We might have a quick look at Drysdale, Evil Laula 361 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 1: of course taking on Clinton. How we now know that 362 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:55,600 Speaker 1: there is an independent running as well as Cindy. 363 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 2: Roberts, and yeah, look I think this is. 364 00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 1: Going to be a really interesting from some Labor inside, 365 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: as I am told that they have got some concerns 366 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:04,360 Speaker 1: out there. 367 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, this is one that I think, if it does 368 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:08,639 Speaker 4: go to Colp's way, will be the story of the 369 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 4: night because it really if the Chief Minister loses her 370 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:15,119 Speaker 4: own seat, you know, it's pretty much game over for 371 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:16,640 Speaker 4: Labor in terms of forming government. 372 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 3: I think it will be. 373 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:21,639 Speaker 4: Yeah, it could be fifty one to forty nine in 374 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:22,879 Speaker 4: terms of how things play out there. 375 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 5: It's not un called for for the you know, a 376 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 5: party to lose their leader at the election. Obviously Terry 377 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 5: Mills lost his seat and he was very popular member 378 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,879 Speaker 5: in Blaine. Adam Charles lost his seat when the COP 379 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,159 Speaker 5: wiped out. So it's not beyond the. 380 00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:42,200 Speaker 1: We're going to have we'll power through a little bit here, Brakling, 381 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 1: How do we think that one's going to go Josh 382 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 1: Burgle in the CLP's current sitting member CP. Yeah, look, 383 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 1: I'm I'm thinking it's going to be a tough challenge 384 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 1: for him to lose that seat. But any anybody Scarce, 385 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:57,240 Speaker 1: I guess when you go to Brennan Murrayquitte Claire boothby 386 00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 1: taking on Tony Severs again, I would say that very clear. 387 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 2: Is probably going to hold that one. 388 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 1: Tiny a lovely bloke, but I do think that the 389 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:07,919 Speaker 1: reality of the crime issue out there is going to have. 390 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:08,520 Speaker 2: A big impact. 391 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:09,880 Speaker 5: And she beat Tony two. 392 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 1: Yeah last time around Casharina. Now I'm told that this 393 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,359 Speaker 1: is going to be an interesting one. I would have 394 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 1: thought that it would be a pretty safe seat for 395 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: the Labor Party. Some telling me that Coda Patel for 396 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:24,440 Speaker 1: the CLP is a that he is one to watch. 397 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:29,080 Speaker 1: That he apparently speaks fluent Greek, so out in those 398 00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:31,399 Speaker 1: suburbs he's quite popular on the doors. 399 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 2: But that's you know, I guess you don't know. 400 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:39,240 Speaker 4: I think the cop have only won one seat or 401 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:42,160 Speaker 4: two seats in the Northern suburbs since two thousand and one. 402 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 4: Someone can correct me. So if they are winning cash 403 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 4: Arena on Saturday next week, that's going to be. 404 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:55,400 Speaker 1: Well yeah, they held no Yeah and Peter Styles that was. 405 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 4: The only two times, yes, that they've had a seat 406 00:18:59,280 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 4: in the Northern suburb. 407 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 1: Look. One of the other interesting ones, some would say 408 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 1: not interesting, but I think it's going to be one 409 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:06,960 Speaker 1: that could be at play again is the seat of 410 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:10,679 Speaker 1: Daily Duran Young taking on Chris Cibtrees from the COLP. 411 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:13,959 Speaker 1: Now Duran obviously in that seat has been since the 412 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 1: by election the last Northern Territory election. It was actually 413 00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:22,399 Speaker 1: won by the CLP. It just deppends I guess whether well. 414 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 2: Who you know, if people turn out. 415 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:26,720 Speaker 5: To varnish is the biggest thing in those areas. Like, yeah, 416 00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:29,159 Speaker 5: you look at how the by election result went, but 417 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:32,439 Speaker 5: you know by elections and general elections are very different. 418 00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, hey, what do we reckon in Fanny Bay? 419 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 5: Oh, that's going to be an interesting one. Certainly, Brent's 420 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 5: boosted his profile since he was elected. He didn't get 421 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 5: the first preference votes, he was helped across the line 422 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,560 Speaker 5: for the Greens, which potentially might be the case again 423 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 5: in this instance. Yeah, just depends on the local issues. 424 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 5: I think, yeah, well it's out. 425 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 4: Of Green's probably the most confident there, but I don't 426 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 4: think they've really don't think he has well. 427 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,240 Speaker 1: And look, we'll focus on that seat throughout this week 428 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 1: as well. I know that's even the secure staying on 429 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,440 Speaker 1: there around Perrap is a big issue for those that 430 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: live in Fanny Bay and also you know the there 431 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,400 Speaker 1: at the at the Fanny Bay shops as well. People 432 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:12,960 Speaker 1: have had some real issues. Now Fong Limb it's another 433 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,120 Speaker 1: one that I think is well and truly up for grabs. 434 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 1: Mark Monahan the ALP is the incumbent member taking on 435 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:25,920 Speaker 1: Tanzil Raman Rahman, I should say Amy un Independent and 436 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 1: Simon Niblock for the nt Greens. 437 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 4: I the CLP have been campaigning hard there. I know 438 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:37,080 Speaker 4: someone who's had Leah and Tanzil on her door twice 439 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 4: in the last couple of weeks, so I think they're 440 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 4: playing for it. 441 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 3: They're making a play for it. 442 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:42,439 Speaker 2: Interesting. 443 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 5: It was a bit of a red distribution there of 444 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:45,920 Speaker 5: the electoral boundary. 445 00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 1: I think there is yes to some degree. I think 446 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 1: it's actually taking in a part of Berrima as like 447 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 1: a part somehow a part of Barrima, So that will 448 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 1: be an interesting one. 449 00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:57,439 Speaker 2: Goida, what are our thoughts? 450 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 5: Well, Obviously the Independent out there she has been backed 451 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 5: by a Keysier, so that is a big potentially factor 452 00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:09,400 Speaker 5: out there. But I don't know. Sorry, Kesey, I'm sure 453 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 5: you're listening, but I just can't help but think that 454 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 5: the CLP are a really good chance there. I think 455 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 5: there are claims of some dirty tactics playing out there 456 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:18,200 Speaker 5: as well. 457 00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:22,119 Speaker 4: Yeah, Belinda seems very confident, but you know that can 458 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 4: always be sort of misleading. Yeah, but you know, it's 459 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 4: one of those ones that will know on the night, 460 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 4: but I'm not sure. 461 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:30,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, you just never know, all right, So I think 462 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 1: it's safe to say that Chancey Paike is going to 463 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:33,920 Speaker 1: be safe out there at. 464 00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:36,280 Speaker 2: Gordia yep. 465 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 1: And then in Johnson. Now this is going to be 466 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,919 Speaker 1: I think a very interesting one the Alps. Joel Bowden 467 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 1: currently holds that seat, but a lot of people keeping 468 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 1: a very close eye on Justin David Susie Independent. 469 00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, she is at least you know, if you go 470 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,560 Speaker 4: to the Rapid Creek Markets on a Sunday, she has 471 00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 4: a whole shop front there. She has seven volunteers out 472 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:59,479 Speaker 4: talking to people. From my anecdotal questioning of people there, 473 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:01,159 Speaker 4: it doesn't seem like Joel has actually been at the 474 00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:04,119 Speaker 4: markets very much until the last couple of weeks and 475 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:06,800 Speaker 4: just going around. I know that, you know, it's a 476 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 4: it's a different than the electric sort of diverse. But 477 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:11,719 Speaker 4: I know that in Jingly the core flutes are out. 478 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,640 Speaker 4: I remember counting in the street of ten houses, five 479 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 4: houses had Justine Davis core flutes on them. So you know, 480 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 4: I'm not saying that to issue in It could be 481 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 4: that you know, it's a safe Labor retain, but it 482 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 4: really depends on if Justine gets into second spot on 483 00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:28,679 Speaker 4: first preferences. 484 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:30,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think this is probably the best chance for 485 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:34,159 Speaker 5: an independent, and that the circumstance of someone new coming in. 486 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,640 Speaker 2: Hey, Karama, that's going to be an interesting one as well. 487 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:39,360 Speaker 5: I think I can't help but feel like Karama has 488 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 5: the biggest factor with crime playing into it, and potentially 489 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 5: the biggest it's the biggest one at threat for Labor. 490 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:46,119 Speaker 3: I think it's going to be. 491 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 4: If there's one seat that does fall to Labor on 492 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,960 Speaker 4: the night in the northern suburbs, it's going to be Karama. 493 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:56,680 Speaker 3: I think that's that's the most vulnerable place for them. 494 00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 1: We'll go through these ones quite quickly, Catherine, I'm thinking 495 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 1: the CELP will retain. 496 00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 5: Joe's got that in the bag. 497 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:08,440 Speaker 1: Malka obviously we know Yinya yep and up against ol Fanning. Interestingly, 498 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 1: from the CELP, I believe that his name was listed. 499 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:12,360 Speaker 1: I don't know whether that was a mistake or whether 500 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:13,439 Speaker 1: he's whether he. 501 00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:15,000 Speaker 2: Has whether the CELP is popped. 502 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 5: I think he was one of one of those last minutes. 503 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:23,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Namajira. People are keeping it eye on this. 504 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:27,119 Speaker 4: But if I think Namajerra is I've heard that the 505 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,640 Speaker 4: SELP is nervous about nama Jira. Now that's because, yeah, 506 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,960 Speaker 4: apparently there's some good campaigning on the ground from Labor. 507 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,840 Speaker 4: I would say that Namajera is more likely of that 508 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 4: one and Barkley to fall to Labor. 509 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:41,919 Speaker 3: But yeah, I don't like. 510 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 1: Peop whether they do or not, Yeah, it remains to 511 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,440 Speaker 1: be seen. Nelson, I think I do think that Jerra 512 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:48,720 Speaker 1: Mayley is safe out there. We do know that Beverly 513 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 1: Rata here are very strong independent running against the ALP 514 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,560 Speaker 1: president Anthony Vines. 515 00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:55,919 Speaker 5: And he was a late minute call up. 516 00:23:56,000 --> 00:24:00,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, another one and then Nightcliff Natasha Files taking on 517 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,880 Speaker 1: a number of number of candidates in Nightcliff. 518 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 5: I think Farsi will still come away with the win, 519 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,640 Speaker 5: but I think it will carve into her majority a bit, 520 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,080 Speaker 5: which for her probably is a bit of a disappointment 521 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:14,000 Speaker 5: how strong she's held that. 522 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,520 Speaker 4: You look at the last federal election and the results there, 523 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:20,200 Speaker 4: the Greens came second at the Nightcliff polling booth, so 524 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 4: that could be the one where that could be one 525 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 4: where the Greens do potentially fall into second place. You'd 526 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 4: have to expect that even if Labor lose every other seat, 527 00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:31,920 Speaker 4: Natasha would hold on. 528 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 1: If they lose Nightcliff, then they can expect a total 529 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 1: NA wipeout. I think it's safe to say Port Darwin now, 530 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 1: I think this is one that the CLP is going 531 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:42,239 Speaker 1: to pick up. 532 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:43,720 Speaker 2: I could be wrong, but I think it is. 533 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:47,800 Speaker 3: I had someone within within Labor say that they suspect 534 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 3: that that's. 535 00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:49,879 Speaker 5: Going to be a CLP game, and that would have 536 00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,240 Speaker 5: been a CLP one in twenty twenty if it wasn't 537 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:53,399 Speaker 5: for Territory Alliance anyway. 538 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 1: Yep. And then of course Sanderson Kate Warden the current 539 00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,840 Speaker 1: sitting member and has been, you know, whether people like 540 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,880 Speaker 1: or not, a very strong local member. Yeah. 541 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 5: I used to live in that electorate and constantly got 542 00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 5: letter box by Kate because I wasn't at home when 543 00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:12,520 Speaker 5: she was door knocking. But yes, she constantly is out 544 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:14,600 Speaker 5: in the electorate and so I would be surprised if 545 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,159 Speaker 5: she didn't keep that very quickly. 546 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 1: A Lea Faro I think is safe in Spilett. And 547 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,639 Speaker 1: then of course Wanguri the last one Schlock Shama up 548 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:25,400 Speaker 1: against Stolly Carlson, Graham Sawyer and Andrew Coates for the Greens. 549 00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:27,159 Speaker 5: Yeah, this is going to be shaping up as an 550 00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:31,360 Speaker 5: interesting one. I can't help but feel like Labour's probably 551 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:35,159 Speaker 5: got it. But it's so nice incumb and see, losing 552 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:40,160 Speaker 5: an incumbent person like Nicole Madison is a big thing 553 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,080 Speaker 5: to lose for Labor. So, you know, with a big 554 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:47,359 Speaker 5: defense personnel out there, crime still being an issue across 555 00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:47,879 Speaker 5: the board. 556 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,600 Speaker 4: And Graham Sawyer does potentially have that sort of same 557 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:54,919 Speaker 4: has the potential to do that thing that Territory Alliance 558 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:56,800 Speaker 4: did and you know in Port Darwin and be here 559 00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:58,920 Speaker 4: spoiler because he does have name recognition. He's a film 560 00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,640 Speaker 4: the Lord Mayor in Darwin, so there is the chance 561 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:03,080 Speaker 4: that some funny stuff could happen there. 562 00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:04,719 Speaker 1: Well, look, we're going to have to leave it there, 563 00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:06,200 Speaker 1: but we might try and catch up with you both 564 00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:08,360 Speaker 1: again next week at some point, if that's possible. It's 565 00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 1: been lovely to have you both in the studio. Thank 566 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,640 Speaker 1: you for your insights this morning. Kathleen Gazola from nine 567 00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,680 Speaker 1: News do you And Thomas Morgan from the ABC, thank you. 568 00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 2: We'll talk to you soon.