1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,920 Speaker 1: We've got the Bureau of Meteorology on the line to 2 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:04,560 Speaker 1: give us a bit of an update on what's going 3 00:00:04,600 --> 00:00:09,000 Speaker 1: on with tropical Cyclone Feena, and joining me is Senior 4 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:12,440 Speaker 1: Meteorologist Miriam Bradbury. Good morning to. 5 00:00:12,440 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: You, Miriam, good morning, Hey you going yeah really well? 6 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for your time. Now, what is the 7 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,560 Speaker 1: latest when it comes to tropical cyclone Fena. 8 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:25,120 Speaker 2: So, the latest information for tropical Cyclone Fena, according to 9 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 2: the track map, the watch and warning products that were 10 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 2: issued a couple of hours ago, is that the system 11 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 2: is still a category to tropical cyclone. It's still sitting 12 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 2: well to the north of the Northern Territory coastline, over 13 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:39,959 Speaker 2: four hundred k's to the northeast of Darwin, so basically 14 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:42,839 Speaker 2: it's still some distance offshore. We can really see that 15 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 2: in that there's a lot of sort of shower and 16 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 2: thunderstorm activity wrapping around this system. But if you look 17 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 2: at the rainfall that we've seen across the top end 18 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 2: in the last twenty four hours or so, it's quite minimal. 19 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 2: So we're getting some of that cloud, but we're not 20 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 2: yet seeing the wet and windy weather impact that's likely 21 00:00:57,600 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 2: to develop over the next few days, and that's why 22 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 2: we've got these tropical cyclone watch and tropical cyclone warning 23 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:07,040 Speaker 2: areas current now. The tropical cyclone warning that's the area 24 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:09,680 Speaker 2: likely to be affected first that we could see gale 25 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 2: force winds developing in the next twenty four hours, most 26 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 2: likely through the day today, and then starting to really 27 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 2: pick up through tomorrow. That extends from Cape Don on 28 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:23,119 Speaker 2: the Coburg Peninsula all the way across to man and Grida, 29 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 2: and it does include Mingling, Minja, lang Sorry and war 30 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 2: are We. But then our watch area, which indicates gale 31 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 2: force winds developing in the next forty eight hours, so 32 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 2: maybe not until late in the week going into the weekend, 33 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:38,840 Speaker 2: that extends further. It covers the entirety of the Tiwei 34 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 2: Islands and pushes down towards Darwin as well. So basically 35 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 2: it's that northwestern corner that's going to see the really 36 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 2: strong winds, the rain and also some very rough seas 37 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 2: really picking up over the next few days. 38 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 1: Now, Mariam, in terms of this tracking map, I guess 39 00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:57,919 Speaker 1: we're all waiting to see at this point in time 40 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 1: what sort of happens when that cyclone does a bit 41 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: of a U turn. Is that what we're waiting for. 42 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, it is. That's when it's expected to start nearing 43 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 2: the coast again. So at the moment, it's really slow moving. 44 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 2: So from one issue of this track map to the next, 45 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 2: there's not a huge change in its position. But through 46 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 2: the next few hours, possibly going into this afternoon, we 47 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 2: are expecting to see that little bit of a U 48 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 2: turn happening and the direction of this cyclone starts shifting 49 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 2: towards the south, then southwest. So that's why it's going 50 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 2: to take it all the way back down across the 51 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 2: Coburg Marine Park and towards the Tiwei Islands as well, 52 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 2: really hooking in in that southwesterly direction. 53 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 1: And I mean, is there's still potential here that once 54 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:44,920 Speaker 1: it's sort of you know, once it turns, you know 55 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 1: that the path that it takes may change to some degree. 56 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, that absolutely is. Unfortunately, it's always the way with cyclones. 57 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 2: I'm sure we're all well versed in that fact. There's 58 00:02:56,840 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 2: always changes in the environment in the whether that can 59 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 2: affect how the cyclone grows, strengthens, and where it tracks. 60 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,800 Speaker 2: The tropical cyclone map that the Bureau issues is always 61 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 2: going to represent the best estimate that's made by our 62 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 2: tropical cyclone team, but you may not if you're looking 63 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 2: at the track map yourself. So there is a forecast range, 64 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 2: which is a gray circle that goes around the track, 65 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:21,919 Speaker 2: and really what that indicates is the spread of areas 66 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:24,920 Speaker 2: where potentially the center of this cyclone could move. So 67 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 2: there is potential that it could move a more direct 68 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 2: suddenly path straight towards that northwest coast of the top End, 69 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 2: or it could take a more westerly path, holding further 70 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 2: out over the water. However, at this stage, the most 71 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 2: likely path does take it across that sort of Coburg 72 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 2: Peninsula Coburg Marine Park and then through the Van Diemen Gulf, 73 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 2: but likely clipping the southern coast of the Tiwei Islands too. 74 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 2: That does hold it to the north of Darwin. But 75 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 2: in that forecast range where possibly it could move, there 76 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 2: is a potential that it could shift further south and 77 00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 2: hit Darwen more directly. That's just not the most likely 78 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 2: scenario at this point in time. 79 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 1: Miriam. How strong could those winds and gales? I mean, 80 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 1: what are we expecting? 81 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, the strongest winds are always going to be 82 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 2: closest to the core of the tropical cyclone, so to 83 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:15,839 Speaker 2: the center of that system. Now, with a category two 84 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 2: tropical cyclone, the mean wind speeds are in that sort 85 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 2: of ninety to one hundred and fifteen kilometer an hour zone, 86 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 2: so that's already very strong. That's definitely strong enough to 87 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,599 Speaker 2: bring down you know, trees, tree branches, power lines, cause 88 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 2: damage to your property, your home, your car, potentially if 89 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 2: you get in the way of a stray tree or so. 90 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 2: But the maximum gusts that we can see out of 91 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:40,559 Speaker 2: a system of this strength are even higher one hundred 92 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 2: and twenty five to one hundred and sixty five kilometers 93 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 2: an hour. Now, again those top wind gusts are most 94 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,600 Speaker 2: likely close to the core of the system, so it 95 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 2: really will depend on where the system tracks, but that's 96 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 2: the potential it's bringing. So at this point in time, 97 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:58,280 Speaker 2: at tropical cyclone advice that we've issued that's attached to 98 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 2: the tropical cyclone's warning and cyclone track map, it does 99 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 2: suggest that within that tropical cyclone watching warning area, we're 100 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 2: most likely to see the damaging gusts up to one 101 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 2: hundred and twenty k's an hour, but we could start 102 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:14,040 Speaker 2: seeing the destructive gusts up to one hundred and fifty 103 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,919 Speaker 2: five k's an hour developing along the coast between Capeton 104 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 2: and war are we from tomorrow morning? So at this stage, yeah, 105 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 2: it is looking like we'll see the strongest winds from 106 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 2: around Friday. 107 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 1: Miriam, can you talk us through then? You know you 108 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 1: just said there those strong wind gusts starting around Friday 109 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 1: for residents of Darwin and the Greater Darwin region, and 110 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:39,159 Speaker 1: we obviously broadcast far and wide, but that's predominantly where 111 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 1: our listenership is. When will we start to experience that 112 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 1: deteriorating weather. 113 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, so for Darwin and the Greater Darwin region, we 114 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 2: are likely to start seeing those wind gus up to 115 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:53,159 Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty k's an hour in the next 116 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 2: forty eight hours. Now at this point it's the later 117 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 2: part of that forty eight hour period, so most likely 118 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 2: not until the weekend. It's the weekend that we're going 119 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,160 Speaker 2: to see the system drawing closer, So it's the weekend 120 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 2: that we're going to see the impacts really ramping up 121 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:08,840 Speaker 2: as well. So most residents, we'll noticings start to get 122 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 2: a little bit windy from Saturday morning, possibly even from 123 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 2: Friday night, but the peak wind gusts are really expected 124 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 2: from around the middle of the day on Saturday to 125 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 2: around the middle of the day on Sunday, peaking in 126 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 2: that overnight period. Now, of course, those timeframes could change 127 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:26,840 Speaker 2: if the system slows down or speeds up at all, 128 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 2: but at this point in time, the strongest wing us 129 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 2: for Darwin are most likely late Saturday going into early Sunday. 130 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 1: Miriam. In terms of how long it could take to 131 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 1: sort of to pass over, have we got any sort 132 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 1: of estimation at this point or is it still too 133 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:45,839 Speaker 1: early to tell. 134 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 2: Look, there's always going to be an element of uncertainty, 135 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 2: unfortunately with cyclones. But again the best estimate that we have, 136 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 2: which is reflecting our track map, does have the system 137 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 2: continuing to move southwest through Sunday and into early next week. 138 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 2: Now there is a potential through that early part of 139 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 2: next week that it will make another sort of coastal 140 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 2: crossing on the Kimberley Coast in Western Australia, but it 141 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 2: is likely to continue on that trajectory whether or not 142 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 2: it actually moves towards the coast. So look for the 143 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 2: Darwin region where we're likely to see the winds easing 144 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 2: back through Sunday sort of late morning into the afternoon. 145 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 2: We may still see some elevated seas and increase rainfall 146 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 2: through the remainder of the weekend, and by the time 147 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 2: we get to next week, the forecast really settles down 148 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 2: quite a bit. Still looking showery, still looking potentially thunderstormy 149 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 2: or so, but the worst of the cyclone impacts will 150 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 2: be at this point confined to the weekend. 151 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 1: Now a couple of quick ones. Are we expecting it 152 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: to stay at a category two? 153 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 2: Yes, that's the most likely category that it will hold. 154 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 2: There's a very slight chance it could push up to 155 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 2: category three, but more likely it will just remain at 156 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 2: Cat two. 157 00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: And Miriam, given that you said those gusts in forty 158 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:03,160 Speaker 1: eight hours, we expect a warning for Darwin potentially tomorrow. 159 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the potential that we're likely to see. As 160 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 2: the system draws nearer, will have a better idea of 161 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 2: exactly when Darwen might be affected. So look, the message 162 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 2: to all communities, not just in Darwin, but across you know, 163 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 2: the top end in general is just keep an eye 164 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 2: on the bureaus track maps. They're updated every three hours 165 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 2: at this point in time, so we'll get another one 166 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 2: in about an hour. Yeah, and that'll give us the 167 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 2: earliest indication of when we might see those winds picking up. 168 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 2: But you're right, it should be in the next twenty 169 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 2: four hours that we might see Darwin go into the 170 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 2: tropical cyclone warning area. 171 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 1: All right, well, we're expecting that update in about an hour. 172 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 1: I think we're catching up with either you or someone else, 173 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 1: Miriam in the next hour or so to find out 174 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 1: how it's tracking. Then